OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[Marcus50]

Presti has rolled the dice this year in a big way. I agree it was apparent he wanted to replace Brooks and it made some sense. In the next two years he faces resigning the three most important players in the franchise in KD, Russ and Serge and to do that I would have thought the team has to at least make the WCF this year if not the Championship finals. I don't think they necessarily need to win the whole thing but that would help.

To win the whole thing he needed to improve the roster and whilst I would have much preferred signing Lopez, signing Kanter Singler, Waiters DJA is a big part of it so the next priority for Presti will be to resign Kanter and Singler. We might not all like all of the signings but as pieces Donovan should be able to build a workable team around KD, Russ and Serge. I am not convinced he has all the right pieces but it is something he might try to address through FA or trades.

It is likely that

RW, AR, KD, SI and EK will start.

A rotation of DJ, Morrow, Waiters, Adams, Nick and McGary with situational minutes for Payne, Singler and Heustis seems the likely outcome with PJ3 and Novak probably not being on the roster at the start of the season.

It will be very interesting to see whether Donovan embraces more small lineups. If that is the case he is a bit jammed up with bigs and we could see one of them traded at some point through the season. Unlikely that this will occur before they have a chance to see whether Kanter's defense is better than expected with the whole team back or he is a defensive bust. If Kanter brings a useful defensive game I can see Adams or McGary traded for value at some point through the season even though they are on cheap rookie contracts. It makes no sense limiting their playing time and lowering their trade value through the season and I am picking we will be desperate for a 2 way SG before the ASB

If we had to get a center who is a poor defender, im glad it was Kanter over Lopez for multiple reasons.
1. Contract.
2. Health.
3. Abilities.
Kanter has an advantage in all three.

Personally im fine with everyone we brought in. I think they should all be given a chance and most will work out. Donovan is perfect for our big men and guards, he is great with SFs and using them as a bonus to an offense.
Im pretty excited for this team.
At this point i dont know who would possibly be traded, Kanter, McGary and Adams seem capable of producing high numbers very quickly. I really don't know if keeping our depth would be limiting anyone but McGary as Adams and Kanter are generally not full time guys.
But i dunno, cant wait for the Summer League so we can see how Cam does.

Payne is out for summer league I heard with broken finger.

My reason for question mark over Kanter v Lopez is around his defense. Lopez defense is not great but Kanters is tragic. Now this may improve with the big 3 back and a pretty season with the team. I really hope so otherwise he is going to be an expensive piece to carry.

I am willing to give up one of Adams, Kanter or McGary if it results in a good 2 way SG only because I expect a much higher use of Serge at the 5 and KD at the 4 this year.

[bondom34]

I keep seeing this Marco Jeric thing, but I've never ever heard that point made by anyone with any respectable knowledge. Its maybe the biggest strawman out there for advanced stats. Jeric is only known because he married a supermodel, which is completely irrelevant to basketball. I keep seeing that as some point against advanced stats but its never actually been expanded on and really until it is I just don't believe anyone's ever said it.

Im pretty sure you were in that argument, but at this point it was years ago... i dont even remember what the topic was.

And its not a srawman argument against AS, its pointing out that if you don't properly use them, and nit pick, you can create whatever narrative you want. You do this all the time. You did it just last week. And i kept pointing out the major flaw in what you were saying, but you just put up a brick wall and refused to acknowledge what was being shown to you. Don't say that its never been expanded on or shown to you, you ignore it... so much so that you were willing to lock a thread to avoid it.

No, its a strawman pretty well. You've said this same thing in a bunch of threads, and honestly even if I agree with your point of debate at times its still a poor argument. Advanced stats have never, and will never say this and until you actually show me how it was argued I don't believe it. I can pull a terrible arguement out of my rear and use it as proof against not using advanced stats too. And I didn't put up a brick wall, I think it was about Dion and how he's a terrible efficiency player (though don't really care to get into it again), and all evidence points to that.

I once heard someone who hated advanced stats say Jordan was no better than the 3rd best player on his own team, so I don't believe in not using them, though I forget the exact arguement he made. See how that works.

[Bravenewworld]

My reason for question mark over Kanter v Lopez is around his defense. Lopez defense is not great but Kanters is tragic. Now this may improve with the big 3 back and a pretty season with the team. I really hope so otherwise he is going to be an expensive piece to carry.

I am willing to give up one of Adams, Kanter or McGary if it results in a good 2 way SG only because I expect a much higher use of Serge at the 5 and KD at the 4 this year.

Id put Kanter and Lopez on the same defensive boat. Theyre both terrible. I kind of get the same feeling with Kanter as i did with ZBo who was horrible defensively before he was at Memphis. He was easily the worst defensive big man in the league for years before Memphis, and it took time for him to really change but he did.

As far as the 2 way 2 guard thing goes... i dont think its an issue anymore. I think with Donovan he is going to be running Westbrook at the 2 more often then he has been. Someone else mentioned him being used a lot like Wade, which i can defeinitely see. And if thats the case then our 2/3 situation is taken care of.

[Bravenewworld]

No, its a strawman pretty well. You've said this same thing in a bunch of threads, and honestly even if I agree with your point of debate at times its still a poor argument. Advanced stats have never, and will never say this and until you actually show me how it was argued I don't believe it. I can pull a terrible arguement out of my rear and use it as proof against not using advanced stats too. And I didn't put up a brick wall, I think it was about Dion and how he's a terrible efficiency player (though don't really care to get into it again), and all evidence points to that.

The list you gave me was a list of 100 players that had poor offensive eff. ratings or something in their first or second year or some ****.
You apparently thought that was some great list that "all evidence points to Dion will never be good", but within that list of 100 players, over 60 were successful NBA players and about a third of those, were starters or stars or near stars. Apparently none of them ever turned into good players but there were guys like Tony Parker, Joe Johnson ,Thabo, etc. on that list.

And this is exactly ive been saying. You attempted to create a narrative and attempted to use advanced stats to show that narrative. When i pointed out the flaws of this argument and this AS narrative, you started changing the rules "Oh, you cant apply this to point guards just shooting guards" (as if that makes any sense. Bigs i could see some kind of difference in, but not guards) and then of course when that failed you locked and deleted the thread under the guise that i would not move the conversation some place else, despite it being a general topic thread and most likely being far more out of place anywhere else.

I once heard someone who hated advanced stats say Jordan was no better than the 3rd best player on his own team, so I don't believe in not using them, though I forget the exact arguement he made. See how that works.

I see someone who has failed at almost every argument youve put forward involving AS and a narrative created by.

Wanna go back to the Lowry and Conley debate where you attempted to show Lowry was a better and would be more successful PG this year or whatever? And you did so by once again only highlighting two three AS's while ignoring everything else?

How about whats his face on Detroit and how you wanted show how bad he was with selective AS's? Despite the fact that all i said was he was a capable PG who would be perfect on a van gundy team and would evolve similar to Nelson. And of course, what did we see? A guy evolving almost perfectly to Jameer until his injury.

Maybe you want to post that list of 100 again so we can get a good laugh at it?
So in a year or two i can highlight another failed AS argument on your part? Just like Jennings and Detroit or Lowry/Conley?

Again.
Advanced statistics can be very valuable. But most people don't use them properly and ends up as a situation of someone who only understands basic algebra trying to explain trigonometry mathematics and because of this lack of understanding they are leaving out 80% of the equation. They use them the way you have, or the way Sooner has. And tell me, do you agree with Sooner? He's basically said that through his statistics, we don't need Kanter, lets get rid of him. If the advanced statistics he is showing is true, then we have no need for Kanter, he is more of a problem then a problem solver.
Do you agree with this premise and his reasoning for this premise?
Again, his premise is only backed by this nit picking of advanced statistics.

[Soonerule]

1. Getting rid of Brooks was something Presti wanted to do for a while. And i think it was because of his lack of being an X's and O's coach. He simply needed a viable reason. Had Brooks continued to coach a team that regularly made the WCFs, Presti would not have been able to fire him, he'd have to wait until his contract was up and even then it would look iffy.

2. You do get that my response was direct to your 2012 thing right? You said that Harden failed us in the 2012 Finals thus if we had him in 2013 we could expect the same thing. Where i responded with, okay, then that means we would have made the finals. Which would have been a very clear improvement from where we were at. If youre going to apply this idea that we can just shift everything from one year to the next, then that simply suggests he would have played fantastic up until the Finals.... right?

3. Yah. He got series MVP because of what he was unexpectedly able to do. You say "series MVP", but no one expected him to be.
Either way, im done with this. Coaching won the final two games, period.

4. No. I dont use them and i try to avoid them at all costs. You'll almost never find me using them in any argument.
I mean, just look at what youre doing with them and you can see exactly why i dislike them.
You are presenting a case as to basically why Kanter is some garbage big man, and you're using one advanced stat to do so. You can maybe expand this to one or two, but it doesnt much matter because AS are meant to go along with everything to create a better overall picture. Not specifically say "player A is garbage because.... AS 14".
And the real silliness of this is the fact that you're doing all of this while ignoring the fact that every professional who is paid millions to understand these numbers, does not support what youre saying.... and does not support it, because theyre not creating a narrative.
I mean, you think its condescending but again.... if you've figured something out that professionals have missed, go cash a check, im sure theyll be more than happy to give you one.
But i think we both know that no professional would even suggest you're remotely close to being accurate because of how narrow of a point you've attempted to make.

1. I totally agree Presti had wanted Brooks gone for a while, Brooks was terrible at in game X's and O's, and Presti needed a viable coach. I disagree however that Brooks could have just gotten us to the playoffs with the team after the trade or just the WCF's had the injury bug not killed the season and kept his job. Win it all, keeps it for sure, make the Finals and show improvement over his last stint in 2012, maybe. There would have been more heat for it of course, but Presti isn't afraid of the heat (see Harden trade)

2. Whoa, back up. All of this came from your declaration that Presti had to keep Kanter because the Thunder had not been unquestionable contenders since trading Harden. When I called you on it by citing 2013 you said Harden would have been a safe guard... to what? Taking the Thunder any further than they went with a rookie starting PG after the RW injury in 2013? Hence my statement that the 2013 playoff run ended when Westbrook got hurt. Are you forgetting the Thunder had KMart in 2013 and finished the season with the #4 defense and the best record in the west?

As for 2014, there was no Harden or KMart, but look at what the Spurs did to an Ibaka-less Thunder team this season, 130-91 and 113-88. Where was Kanter, the "new" safe guard in those games? I wouldn't have expected to win either of those games but a "safe guard" should have made it at least respectable. Ibaka is our Spurs killer, or at least he is when he is playing alongside a center that has a clue what he is doing and has the stones to set his feet and take a charge. However, Harden would have been head and shoulders better than Thabo or Roberson, thus my statement that 2014 could be debatable.

In 2012-13 KMart shot 45% overall including 42.6% from 3, Harden shot 43.8% overall and 36.8% from 3. KMart was in the prime of his career and Harden was in his first season past a rookie contract. KMart was more than just a suitable substitute for Harden, he was actually more polished and developed....then. Had you just conceded my point about 2013, that would have been an end to it. You brought in the 'safe guard' thing, the Golden State thing, the Spurs thing, so just who exactly started jumping all over the place here?

3. Iguodala has always been regarded as an elite defender, he did exactly what he was expected to do and without him, Lebron would have made Golden State his bitch.

4. Kind of putting words in someone's mouth aren't we? When did I ever call Kanter a garbage big man? I have always said he is a great offensive player. What I have said, and I would appreciate not being misquoted, was that his defense sucks and you won't find a single "professional" that debates that point. I have also said he is not worth a 8 figure contract. The point of debate is whether his defense will improve and I say it isn't promising based upon his documented history, not my gut feeling, not what I hope will happen, but from what Kanter has done thus far in his NBA career and the "professionals" at Utah apparently agree. Since you know more than they do, go to Salt Lake City and cash a check.

Could it improve? Well, it couldn't get much worse. Will it improve, not unless he wants it to and so far he hasn't wanted it to. He has openly declared in every end of season interview he has ever had that he was going to focus on defense, why would anyone believe him now? I used to say he never worked on it but found evidence researching Kanter's overall net ratings that show he can improve "if" he wants to. In his second season Miss Enes had a very respectable +3.7 net rating followed by a ghastly -12.8 season.

So you can scratch the "he's young" and the "he's never been taught properly" argument, he just doesn't want to play defense. Fine, acknowledge it, pay him $9 mil/yr, tell him why, and let's go kick ass. Otherwise, save the money to pay McGary and Adams when the time comes.

[bondom34]

No, its a strawman pretty well. You've said this same thing in a bunch of threads, and honestly even if I agree with your point of debate at times its still a poor argument. Advanced stats have never, and will never say this and until you actually show me how it was argued I don't believe it. I can pull a terrible arguement out of my rear and use it as proof against not using advanced stats too. And I didn't put up a brick wall, I think it was about Dion and how he's a terrible efficiency player (though don't really care to get into it again), and all evidence points to that.

The list you gave me was a list of 100 players that had poor offensive eff. ratings or something in their first or second year or some ****.
You apparently thought that was some great list that "all evidence points to Dion will never be good", but within that list of 100 players, over 60 were successful NBA players and about a third of those, were starters or stars or near stars. Apparently none of them ever turned into good players but there were guys like Tony Parker, Joe Johnson ,Thabo, etc. on that list.

And this is exactly ive been saying. You attempted to create a narrative and attempted to use advanced stats to show that narrative. When i pointed out the flaws of this argument and this AS narrative, you started changing the rules "Oh, you cant apply this to point guards just shooting guards" (as if that makes any sense. Bigs i could see some kind of difference in, but not guards) and then of course when that failed you locked and deleted the thread under the guise that i would not move the conversation some place else, despite it being a general topic thread and most likely being far more out of place anywhere else.

I once heard someone who hated advanced stats say Jordan was no better than the 3rd best player on his own team, so I don't believe in not using them, though I forget the exact arguement he made. See how that works.

I see someone who has failed at almost every argument youve put forward involving AS and a narrative created by.

Wanna go back to the Lowry and Conley debate where you attempted to show Lowry was a better and would be more successful PG this year or whatever? And you did so by once again only highlighting two three AS's while ignoring everything else?

How about whats his face on Detroit and how you wanted show how bad he was with selective AS's? Despite the fact that all i said was he was a capable PG who would be perfect on a van gundy team and would evolve similar to Nelson. And of course, what did we see? A guy evolving almost perfectly to Jameer until his injury.

Maybe you want to post that list of 100 again so we can get a good laugh at it?
So in a year or two i can highlight another failed AS argument on your part? Just like Jennings and Detroit or Lowry/Conley?

Again.
Advanced statistics can be very valuable. But most people don't use them properly and ends up as a situation of someone who only understands basic algebra trying to explain trigonometry mathematics and because of this lack of understanding they are leaving out 80% of the equation. They use them the way you have, or the way Sooner has. And tell me, do you agree with Sooner? He's basically said that through his statistics, we don't need Kanter, lets get rid of him. If the advanced statistics he is showing is true, then we have no need for Kanter, he is more of a problem then a problem solver.
Do you agree with this premise and his reasoning for this premise?
Again, his premise is only backed by this nit picking of advanced statistics.

OK, I'm just going to end this now, but I said there was a list of players who were SGs who largely weren't very good. I said to ignore PGs because Dion isn't one, which I didn't think was too crazy a narrative, as he's not. There is a difference in looking at how good a guy is of a shooter when he plays a different position, and of the SGs, about 5 were actual good players. You can have a PG who's not the best shooter and excels elsewhere. There were a bunch of guys who still had jobs in the league, but I wouldn't want playing heavy minutes on my team.

And Lowry/Conley, I never said what they would be going forward. I said in about December that Lowry was playing better, he was. aIf you want to bring up a terrible debate, what about when you told everyone Atlanta was tanking, Toronto would miss the playoffs, Charlotte was a 2 seed, and Detroit was the 5th best team in the east? Don't go on rants about this garbage and end it now, you've used that Jaric thing multiple times yet never explained it. I genuinely wanted to hear it because I'm curious and I'd like to try to at least talk about some sort of statistical evidence for things instead of talking in subjective and vague terms. That's all. I'm not trying to be hostile and it seems you're getting there, that's not my intent.

[bondom34]

Also, just to point out, he's not using an advanced stat. Its literally points scored. And FYI, I've argued against misuse of advanced stats too, I've not created any narratives and have seen them misused.

[Grolgar]

The Kanter negotiations are starting at at least $13 million per season. You're kidding yourself if you think we're getting him for $10 per.

[Marcus50]

The Kanter negotiations are starting at at least $13 million per season. You're kidding yourself if you think we're getting him for $10 per.

I'm picking 4/48 most likely starting point which is apparently where Reggie was. He will probably end up around 4/52 - 4/56 Whether a 1 way player is worth that is an entirely different discussion. If someone offers the Max it will be interesting to see how presti reacts, I am not so sure he will match that

[bondom34]

The Kanter negotiations are starting at at least $13 million per season. You're kidding yourself if you think we're getting him for $10 per.

I'm picking 4/48 most likely starting point which is apparently where Reggie was. He will probably end up around 4/52 - 4/56 Whether a 1 way player is worth that is an entirely different discussion. If someone offers the Max it will be interesting to see how presti reacts, I am not so sure he will match that

Agree, I think that's where it starts. A max is a little much for me.

[Balkman32]

The problem here is that there are teams that will give him a max offer sheet.

[bondom34]

The problem here is that there are teams that will give him a max offer sheet.

I don't see any to be honest. He hasn't been rumored with anyone other than OKC or the Bucks. And they've been rumored with every FA big man, and only once did I see a Kanter rumor. I'm still thinking his market is more limited than many here imagine. He'll get paid, but I don't think his market is huge.

[Marcus50]

The problem here is that there are teams that will give him a max offer sheet.

I don't see any to be honest. He hasn't been rumored with anyone other than OKC or the Bucks. And they've been rumored with every FA big man, and only once did I see a Kanter rumor. I'm still thinking his market is more limited than many here imagine. He'll get paid, but I don't think his market is huge.

agree. Expectations on Kanters value on the rfa market seem inflated. The problems with his defense and the personality issues at the Jazz will have an impact. If he thinks he can address his defense he may be better to take a 1 year deal and really improve his value while taking advantage of the salary cap rise

[Andre Roberstan]

Two pieces of news: Mo Cheeks returns, and Kyle Singler expected to return.

https://twitter.com/DarnellMayberry/status/615624538869514241

https://twitter.com/spearsnbayahoo/status/615623373729632256

[Balkman32]

NBA GM's LOVE to overspend.

Looking back there are always players getting overpaid. Hopefully Kanter will realize this is where he wants to be and he takes a deal that makes sense to both the team and the player. Because if he signs a MAX deal he will probably be delt in a year.

[bondom34]

Two pieces of news: Mo Cheeks returns, and Kyle Singler expected to return.

https://twitter.com/DarnellMayberry/status/615624538869514241

https://twitter.com/spearsnbayahoo/status/615623373729632256

I'm happy about at least one of these things!

Also: Coach Kalaiman got a new gig in Toronto.

[KD35Brah]

Another year of Mo Cheeks molding Westbrook is great.

Will Cheeks help our defense?

That's what I'm worried about most.

[bondom34]

Looks official:

[tweet]https://twitter.com/RandyRenner/status/615639119750787072[/tweet]

[bondom34]

Also per hoopshype, Mo Williams a possibility?

[Andre Roberstan]

If we're looking at Mo Will, that means we're probably trying to move a package that includes DJ or Dion.