The Tobias Harris Situation

[mojosodope]

I finally got someone to confirm that Harris signing an offer DOES NOT affect our cap space in the 72 hour window. It only affects the cap space of the new team. This happened with Chandler Parsons last season. I remember now there was a big scramble in the 72 hours.

Conclusion: as long as the Magic have their UFA targets lined up and ready to sign in the first few days of free agency, we're at no risk of losing Harris. The only way he walks is if the front office wants him to.

It affects us, if we match. We would need to be a priority for the targeted free agent and they would have to accept in the same window essentially

[rcklsscognition]

Like I've said all along, Tobias is selfish and his mindset doesnt fit with the collective mindset of the rest of this team. Selfish me first loser. And now reports he doesn't want to play for Skiles again. Dont let your ego hit the door on the way out.

By the way, where all all those sulky Tobes fangirls who were on me all year about Tobes not being this selfish egocentric player? What are your thoughts now? Running out of defenses.

But that's not even true, he himself told Kyler directly he had a great relationship with Skiles. It's just BS.

[tooler]

I finally got someone to confirm that Harris signing an offer DOES NOT affect our cap space in the 72 hour window. It only affects the cap space of the new team. This happened with Chandler Parsons last season. I remember now there was a big scramble in the 72 hours.

Conclusion: as long as the Magic have their UFA targets lined up and ready to sign in the first few days of free agency, we're at no risk of losing Harris. The only way he walks is if the front office wants him to.

It affects us, if we match. We would need to be a priority for the targeted free agent and they would have to accept in the same window essentially

Right. This precludes us from chasing unicorn players that will twiddle their thumbs for a while. That's why I think we'll overpay for a couple veterans like we did for Frye. They know they won't get a better offer than the one in front of them and will sign right away.

[Optimus_Steel]

People take Twitter rumors too strongly.

[tooler]

The one other quirk is maybe Tobias takes the qualifying offer and bets on himself to try the market again next year, like Greg Monroe did last year. That might be risky with his injury history.

Even if he gets zero max money offers in free agency, I assume he and the Magic would settle on a reasonable number, maybe something between $50M and Vucevic's contract. I could be wrong and then we have to do this all again for another year.

[basketballRob]

People take Twitter rumors too strongly.

If he said it he will be gone. Hennigan's slogan when he was hired was, he only wanted players that wanted to be here.

[rcklsscognition]

People take Twitter rumors too strongly.

If he said it he will be gone. Hennigan's slogan when he was hired was, he only wanted players that wanted to be here.

But Tobias wants to be here and he wants to be our guy, he wants to be the face of the franchise, he's just waiting for us to offer it to him.

[Orlwillbeback]

Like I've said all along, Tobias is selfish and his mindset doesnt fit with the collective mindset of the rest of this team. Selfish me first loser. And now reports he doesn't want to play for Skiles again. Dont let your ego hit the door on the way out.

By the way, where all all those sulky Tobes fangirls who were on me all year about Tobes not being this selfish egocentric player? What are your thoughts now? Running out of defenses.

you may have said it, but no one else see's this selfishness you proclaim. reports from a NY reporter, yet something that has been denied directly from Skiles and Harris. but then, you dont want to bring up that rumor do you, doesnt fit well with your agenda.

Oh youre the agenda guy! Omg this is like old times. I have an opinion about Tobias that has ended up being true so lets just say i have an agenda to save face haha.

You act like you have been proven right somehow?? Where is the evidence for this?

He rarely isos and most of his buckets are assisted. That and he can play multiple positions and gives us shooting. Losing him for nothing would be terrible because we would be losing an asset for nothing. We should resign him anyway and trade him eventually if it doesnt work out and i believe that is what hennigan is thinking given that he didnt trade him at the deadline.

[KillMonger]

People take Twitter rumors too strongly.

If he said it he will be gone. Hennigan's slogan when he was hired was, he only wanted players that wanted to be here.

But Tobias wants to be here and he wants to be our guy, he wants to be the face of the franchise, he's just waiting for us to offer it to him.

Yeah but the face? He's just a piece in the puzzle, nobody on this team imo qualifies as the face of the franchise just yet.

[Skin]

Gonna suck to join the Bucks fans sorrow if we lose Harris for nothing significant. I enjoyed their disgust thread. Gonna be ironic if it happens here.

[JF5]

We should still match on harris and then move him if we have to in a year or two. If harris leaves, our depth versatility and shooting will be diminished.

Exactly. His contract even at Max value will be even more tradeable in a year or two as the cap drastically increases.

You don't just let young assets just walk.

This...

Plus, I personally look at a 3 year deal with a player option for a 4th. Gives everyone involved flexibility (IMO).

[floppymoose]

If you're so sold on +/- bring the end all be all even if pretty much every other stat says opposite, Then did you look at Aaron's vs Tobias? Oladipo vs Fournier? Oladipo vs Green? Dedmon

I'm more sold on RPM than raw +/-. It takes into account who you are playing with and against. For instance, Dedmon is below average in RPM (although an above average defender). Fournier is also a fairly low minute player. RPM have him and Oladipo pretty close right now. I'm betting Oladipo pulls away next season. Young players often struggle in RPM - as fans we see their potential and overrate where they are right now. They still make a lot of mistakes, typically.

Players who play few minutes have very noisey +/- and RPM data. So you can find a ton of outliers in the low-minute players. And there will be errors of significant magnitude even in the big minute players. So if you want to undermine the repute of RPM by cherry-picking some outliers, you certainly can.

But it doesn't change anything. It's still the best way to predict results. All the critics have is that it isn't perfect. Well duh. I'm going to roll with the best data I have, especially in the cases where it agrees with my own eyes.

[KillMonger]

The Pistons and Celtics are leading contenders to sign Tobias Harris, as several teams are open to a deal with salaries approaching $15MM as the combo forward seeks a deal near the max, reports Shams Charania of RealGM (Twitter link). A max offer for the soon-to-be restricted free agent would entail a starting salary of an estimated $15.8MM. The Magic seem unlikely to match an offer sheet that comes close to $15MM, given that the team wouldn’t go for the $10-11MM salaries Harris sought in an extension this past fall, Charania writes.

The Knicks are reportedly planning a run at the Long Island native, while the Lakers, Sixers and Hawks have been linked to him, too. Still, Harris would like to continue with Orlando, and new coach Scott Skiles has dismissed the idea of a rift between them. Harris and Skiles, who largely kept the former first-round pick tied to the bench when they worked together on the Bucks, have exchanged messages with each other throughout the year, Charania writes, so presumably they were talking even before the Magic had a coaching vacancy.

Detroit and Boston both have the cap flexibility necessary to float an offer of $15MM salaries to Harris, though the Celtics have made it clear they’re prioritizing marquee free agents this summer, so it’s uncertain how swiftly they would go after Harris come Wednesday’s opening of free agency. The Pistons are already envisioning how Harris would fit in their system, seeing him as a hybrid forward, as Charania details.

[OrlChamps2030]

Gonna suck to join the Bucks fans sorrow if we lose Harris for nothing significant. I enjoyed their disgust thread. Gonna be ironic if it happens here.

Lol I was thinking the same thing earlier.

[Def Swami]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SerenaWinters/status/615982424967655424[/tweet]

[OrlandO]

Isiah Thomas just called Harris "the gem" of free agency on NBATV's special free agency show. Thinks he'll break out like a Kawhi Leonard level player in a couple years.

[MagicFan101]

ESPN recently posted their list of the Top 30 free agents along with a suggested annual value.

Coming in at the prized spot of #23 with an annual value of (you guessed it!) $9M is our very own Tobias Harris!

[tooler]

Isiah Thomas just called Harris "the gem" of free agency on NBATV's special free agency show. Thinks he'll break out like a Kawhi Leonard level player in a couple years.

Ugh, kiss of death.

Didn't I read somewhere that it's rare for someone to break out after the 4th season? The third year is the big one for true superstars, and Kawhi broke out his 3rd year in the Finals. Tobias is younger but that's sometimes hard to balance one way or the other.

He seems dedicated to his craft so I expect him to improve, especially if the coach can give him a defined role that fits his strengths.

[tiderulz]

Isiah Thomas just called Harris "the gem" of free agency on NBATV's special free agency show. Thinks he'll break out like a Kawhi Leonard level player in a couple years.

Ugh, kiss of death.

Didn't I read somewhere that it's rare for someone to break out after the 4th season? The third year is the big one for true superstars, and Kawhi broke out his 3rd year in the Finals. Tobias is younger but that's sometimes hard to balance one way or the other.

He seems dedicated to his craft so I expect him to improve, especially if the coach can give him a defined role that fits his strengths.

does that hold true if they are traded? or 3 years with the same team?

[seeingstars]

Isiah Thomas just called Harris "the gem" of free agency on NBATV's special free agency show. Thinks he'll break out like a Kawhi Leonard level player in a couple years.

Ugh, kiss of death.

Didn't I read somewhere that it's rare for someone to break out after the 4th season? The third year is the big one for true superstars, and Kawhi broke out his 3rd year in the Finals. Tobias is younger but that's sometimes hard to balance one way or the other.

He seems dedicated to his craft so I expect him to improve, especially if the coach can give him a defined role that fits his strengths.

Is Kawhi a superstar Level player? Does Thomas really think Harris will be a superstar?