Suns Offseason Thread 3: Spurned for the Spurs

[binkar]

A couple thoughts:

-I like the Chandler signing, even though it didn't land us LMA. Chandler brings many of the elements this team desperately missed last year: A veteran leader, toughness, interior defense, and rebounding. His 11.5 rpg nearly doubles Len's team best 6.6 rpg.

-Obviously this signing alone doesn't make us contenders, but I think there is value to even being a 7 or 8 seed. I think free agents tend to take playoff teams more seriously when evaluating possible destinations.

-I typically don't mind Gambo, but some of his analysis of late has been way off base. He described Chandler as being "big, but not athletic" and said he'd only give us "30 good games".

-I don't understand the posters who get mad at the names that surface after we fail to land a star. For example Kevin Seraphin's name surfaces now that we lost out of LMA and people start slamming Mcdonough with "really this is your replacement for LMA?". Do people really think Mcdonough views those players as even being in the same stratosphere? Obviously not. However, you still have to fill out a roster and the roster construction and mentality can completely change when missing out on a certain star player. Also, there are still a lot of dominoes to fall and those two things are likely completely independent of one another.

[SkinnyOMiller]

I don't hate Aldridge for choosing to go to SA - he's a free agent and as such free to go wherever he wants to. Hope they suck balls the whole time he is there though (and for all years beyond).

What confuses me is why he would sign for a full 4 years, when he was initially intent on a 1+1 contract. Not only would it have enabled him to cash in next year, but he also would have had an out in case Duncan/ Pop/ Manu all retire and the team is left with nothing. Could have rung chased for a year and then bailed next year.

Anyway, what's done is done, time to move on and fill out the roster with low end vets that won't demand playing time over the youngins. Maybe Anthony Bennett at backup PF, might be worth kicking the tyres to see if he gets it together.

He signed for 3 years basically and has a player option for the 4th year.


Poetic justice would be the Spurs crashing and burning after Duncan leaves, LMA opting out after 3 years and the Suns being on the rise, competing for a title and giving him the cold shoulder.

[STEV13]

I say we double down on youth and go after Kevin Seraphin or KJ McDaniels.

Bledsoe/Knight/Bynum
Knight/Goodwin/Booker
Tucker/Warren/McDaniels
Morris/Seraphin/McDaniels
Chandler/Len/Leuer

Let these guys play hard and develop chemistry. Who even knows how the season would turn out?

[carey]

-I typically don't mind Gambo, but some of his analysis of late has been way off base. He described Chandler as being "big, but not athletic" and said he'd only give us "30 good games".

I'm sure you guys have noticed by now but Gambo doesn't actually know a lot about basketball. He has Suns sources (Sarver) and NBA sources (Dudley) so you can take his word on signings and such. Just don't trust him on anything else. Chandler is athletic. He also played 75 games last year averaging 30 minutes a night. We won't be asking him to play 30 a night. I bet he averages about 25-27 with Len getting 21-23.

[bwgood77]

A couple thoughts:

-I like the Chandler signing, even though it didn't land us LMA. Chandler brings many of the elements this team desperately missed last year: A veteran leader, toughness, interior defense, and rebounding. His 11.5 rpg nearly doubles Len's team best 6.6 rpg.

-Obviously this signing alone doesn't make us contenders, but I think there is value to even being a 7 or 8 seed. I think free agents tend to take playoff teams more seriously when evaluating possible destinations.

-I typically don't mind Gambo, but some of his analysis of late has been way off base. He described Chandler as being "big, but not athletic" and said he'd only give us "30 good games".

-I don't understand the posters who get mad at the names that surface after we fail to land a star. For example Kevin Seraphin's name surfaces now that we lost out of LMA and people start slamming Mcdonough with "really this is your replacement for LMA?". Do people really think Mcdonough views those players as even being in the same stratosphere? Obviously not. However, you still have to fill out a roster and the roster construction and mentality can completely change when missing out on a certain star player. Also, there are still a lot of dominoes to fall and those two things are likely completely independent of one another.

Great thoughts. No, some people are irrational and/or emotional at times. You just kind of have to live with it unless you want to get into big arguments. I find it interesting to see all opinions, thoughts and emotions as it gives me a general sense on how the overall fanbase is feeling.

[Mr-Al]

David Lee averaged 18.9 pts and 10.0 rebounds in his three previous seasons with the Warriors before last season. He has never shot below 50% fg in his career. Take at a look at his career stats: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/stats/_/id/2772/david-lee Who else could the Suns possibly get at this point better than him unless they trade for a superstar. He is only signed for one year. It would not be a long term commitment. If you can get a guy that puts up nearly 20 and 10 every night when your current power forward averages 15 and 6, you do it. Chandler and Lee could dominant the boards. And Lee runs the floor. I say take the chance and see if you can make the playoffs. Sign Amare too. With a rotating frontcourt of Lee/Amare and Chandler/Len, you can play big or small.

Is this 2010?

[Funky Tut]

Well I just needed to get this off my chest, I wish the Spurs organization no luck in the future and yes, I am still jaded about what happened to us in the mid 2000's and how it seemed like the basketball gods were against us and it turns out Donaghy admitted that the NBA officiating was crooked and fixed but whatever, I am used to it not only as a Suns fan but an Arizona sports fan in general. Outside of the Diamondbacks winning it in 2001, there has been much heart ache. Recently the Coyotes got screwed and ended up with the #3 pick and did not have a choice at a clear franchise altering player despite finishing with the 2nd worst record in the NHL. Or how about the Cardinals last year clicking on all cylinders just to be decimated by injuries.

Back to the Suns, Its just typical, heartbreak hotel over and over again. We can't land big name free agents, and yes I guess the consolation prize was that he "considered" Phoenix, but at the end of the day LMA is a Spur. Our best case scenario is the 8th seed and probably a 1 and done. We can only hope that Knight/Bled have good synergy, Len remains injury free and keeps progressing, and Warren continues to shine and grow. Adding Chandler was a good move, but its not going to make us an elite WC team. I am glad I don't have the task of trying to build this team to be a contender like we were a decade ago. We are not an attractive market for high end FA and we don't suck enough to consistently land top 10 picks. We need to get out of the twilight zone of NBA mediocrity where there is potential to dwell for a very long time. I will remain optimistic and hope that Len and Warren just explode with greatness.

[Mr-Al]

Gotta ask again - Favors..?

Bledsoe for Favors?

Deal. Almost impossible, but deal.

[Mr-Al]

Needed to get a rebounder ... check
Needed a great defender ... check
Needed a veteran presence ... check
Needed to dump Marcus ... check
Needed to draft a shooter ... check

So far off-season is going well. Still have time to work some deals.

Bledsoe / Ish
Knight / Booker
Tucker / Warren
Kief / Leuer
Chandler / Len

If Len's outside shot has developed at all then he could be our PF. After signing Chandler we can save our cap space for next year and try to attract top free agents again.

Um no. Tired of hearing this, Len is a center. End of story. He can play a couple minutes there on offense, that's it

You don't want him running around chasing 4's

[saintEscaton]

Gotta ask again - Favors..?

Bledsoe for Favors?

Deal. Almost impossible, but deal.

I'd do it

[carey]

I say we double down on youth and go after Kevin Seraphin or KJ McDaniels.

I can get behind Kevin Seraphim. He's not exactly what we need if we're rolling with Kieff as a starter, but there's enough there to like. K.J. McDaniels on the other hand. Extremely athletic 2-guard that shoots less than 40% from the field and only 29% from 3? Those numbers are identical to Archie's except for the PPG. The percentages (39% and 29%) are identical. McDaniels just played twice as many minutes.

[carey]

2. Why not sign a 2 year deal with the Spurs with a player option and sign a 5 year deal next off season with the Spurs ( I think that is legal.)

I mean.. it's legal. But you wouldn't have his Bird rights. So depending on who they sign and for how much they'd likely have to still have $20M in cap room. It would be very difficult to do. The only reason Cleveland can do it with LeBron is because all these other guys are FAs. He will technically sign first and then they will use the bird rights on all these other guys to go well over the cap and into luxury tax hell to sign them.

[JTrain]

"We know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball."

No, we don't know any such thing. We have two good but not great players that so far have a losing record when playing together and negative net points when playing together.

Yes. We do. You just are one of those people who thinks that we don't know anything that hasn't actually happened on the court yet despite all basic logic. So you admit that Chris Paul and James Harden wouldn't be the best back court in basketball? After all, they haven't had an opportunity to show it? Or maybe we can just know that they are good players who compliment each other and therefore would be great together.

Oh boy. Let's start small. I provided two stats from last season regarding the backcourt of Bledsoe and Knight. This is actual data that occurred on the court, not speculation about the future. I even put them in bold. Let's look at one of these and see where (or if) you disagree and why.

In net points per 100 possessions, the combination of Bledsoe-Knight averaged -2.9. To compare, Bledsoe-Dragic was +2.8 and Bledsoe-IT was +4.4. Here are starting NBA two-man combinations charted:



As you can see, -2.9 is quite a way to the wrong side of that line. Obviously the sample size is small, but that's the data so far. So we certainly don't "know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball". In fact, the empirical evidence so far clearly gives us reason to doubt that.

Next, we might discuss the statistics of how Brandon Knight affected his teammates while playing with the Bucks. But let's start with the above data for now.

[Mr-Al]

Sorry didn't realize 18.5 points, 12 boards, and 2 blocks a game was awful. No matter the age those are amazing numbers. Pau's also on a 7.5mil contract.

It's one of the most awful things I've ever heard.

What part of the Chandler signing suddenly makes everyone think we should mortage our future on a bunch of old as **** players that wouldn't even get us anywhere?


Ugh, this is what happens when you sign a 33 year old to a 52 million dollar contract, people get confused about our direction

Actually, I think I'm confused too

[bwgood77]

"We know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball."

No, we don't know any such thing. We have two good but not great players that so far have a losing record when playing together and negative net points when playing together.

Yes. We do. You just are one of those people who thinks that we don't know anything that hasn't actually happened on the court yet despite all basic logic. So you admit that Chris Paul and James Harden wouldn't be the best back court in basketball? After all, they haven't had an opportunity to show it? Or maybe we can just know that they are good players who compliment each other and therefore would be great together.

Oh boy. Let's start small. I provided two stats from last season regarding the backcourt of Bledsoe and Knight. This is actual data that occurred on the court, not speculation about the future. I even put them in bold. Let's look at one of these and see where (or if) you disagree and why.

In net points per 100 possessions, the combination of Bledsoe-Knight averaged -2.9. To compare, Bledsoe-Dragic was +2.8 and Bledsoe-IT was +4.4. Here are starting NBA two-man combinations charted:



As you can see, -2.9 is quite a way to the wrong side of that line. Obviously the sample size is small, but that's the data so far. So we certainly don't "know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball". In fact, the empirical evidence so far clearly gives us reason to doubt that.

Next, we might discuss the statistics of how Brandon Knight affected his teammates while playing with the Bucks. But let's start with the above data for now.

I think we need to give this backcourt a chance and not judge it based on a few games after a madness based trade deadline switch. That isn't good data, and you have to know it.

[SkinnyOMiller]

We are not an attractive market for high end FA

I disagree. I think the biggest issue have been Phoenix's recent struggles, especially with Blanks as GM. If they start winning, everything will take care of itself. The whole "not an attractive market for high end FA" rhetoric is also something that I don't buy. The best players in the NBA are in Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Meanwhile the Lakers and Knicks got shut out by all the major free agents.


With the advent of social media, the market matters less, guys can get paid anywhere but FA's still want to go to a team with stability and one that has been in the playoffs. I fully believe that the Suns can reel in "the big fish" but there has to be stability and they have to win some games. If they can make a playoff run, if the backcourt gels and the young players turn potential into production, I don't think they'll have a hard time finding a player who wants to join in next year.

[AtheJ415]

"We know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball."

No, we don't know any such thing. We have two good but not great players that so far have a losing record when playing together and negative net points when playing together.

Yes. We do. You just are one of those people who thinks that we don't know anything that hasn't actually happened on the court yet despite all basic logic. So you admit that Chris Paul and James Harden wouldn't be the best back court in basketball? After all, they haven't had an opportunity to show it? Or maybe we can just know that they are good players who compliment each other and therefore would be great together.

Oh boy. Let's start small. I provided two stats from last season regarding the backcourt of Bledsoe and Knight. This is actual data that occurred on the court, not speculation about the future. I even put them in bold. Let's look at one of these and see where (or if) you disagree and why.

In net points per 100 possessions, the combination of Bledsoe-Knight averaged -2.9. To compare, Bledsoe-Dragic was +2.8 and Bledsoe-IT was +4.4. Here are starting NBA two-man combinations charted:



As you can see, -2.9 is quite a way to the wrong side of that line. Obviously the sample size is small, but that's the data so far. So we certainly don't "know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball". In fact, the empirical evidence so far clearly gives us reason to doubt that.

Next, we might discuss the statistics of how Brandon Knight affected his teammates while playing with the Bucks. But let's start with the above data for now.

Right, and so your premise holds only if Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe's future together is determined by how they played over an incredibly small sample of games together for the first time ever with no real practice time. So again, real stats based on a faulty premise that is unlikely to hold going forward. Do I need to show my graph of world temperatures v. number of pirates? Because that's barely less valuable than all of what you've shown.

[JTrain]

I think we need to give this backcourt a chance and not judge it based on a few games after a madness based trade deadline switch. That isn't good data, and you have to know it.

Small sample size, but entirely "good" in terms of having no good reason to throw it out. In terms of giving them a chance, they absolutely have my blessing, for whatever that's worth.

[AtheJ415]

Yes. We do. You just are one of those people who thinks that we don't know anything that hasn't actually happened on the court yet despite all basic logic. So you admit that Chris Paul and James Harden wouldn't be the best back court in basketball? After all, they haven't had an opportunity to show it? Or maybe we can just know that they are good players who compliment each other and therefore would be great together.

Oh boy. Let's start small. I provided two stats from last season regarding the backcourt of Bledsoe and Knight. This is actual data that occurred on the court, not speculation about the future. I even put them in bold. Let's look at one of these and see where (or if) you disagree and why.

In net points per 100 possessions, the combination of Bledsoe-Knight averaged -2.9. To compare, Bledsoe-Dragic was +2.8 and Bledsoe-IT was +4.4. Here are starting NBA two-man combinations charted:



As you can see, -2.9 is quite a way to the wrong side of that line. Obviously the sample size is small, but that's the data so far. So we certainly don't "know that our back court is still one of the best in basketball". In fact, the empirical evidence so far clearly gives us reason to doubt that.

Next, we might discuss the statistics of how Brandon Knight affected his teammates while playing with the Bucks. But let's start with the above data for now.

I think we need to give this backcourt a chance and not judge it based on a few games after a madness based trade deadline switch. That isn't good data, and you have to know it.

Nope. It's already been pre-determined. The past=the future. Trading Isaiah Thomas and Goran for Knight means our backcourt now sucks because Knight didn't come in and play as well immediately as those guys who had a full offseason to work together. We'd be one of the worst teams in the league if not for the almighty Tyson Chandler, who is so good that he will single-handedly pull us into playoff contention, and so now we are forced to alter the entire course of our team's strategy due to the almighty Tyson. Hell, our backcourt sucks, and Len, Kieff, and Tucker suck too, and yet we can't tank because Tyson Chandler is THAT good.

And I can prove it with stats.

Here's what else I can definitively prove with stats based on similar faulty causal logic:

[JTrain]

Right, and so your premise holds only if Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe's future together is determined by how they played over an incredibly small sample of games together for the first time ever with no real practice time. So again, real stats based on a faulty premise that is unlikely to hold going forward. Do I need to show my graph of world temperatures v. number of pirates? Because that's barely less valuable than all of what you've shown.

So you have no empirical data to present.