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Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5

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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#561 » by payitforward » Tue Jul 7, 2015 2:36 pm

hands11 wrote:
closg00 wrote:Just saw Clarkson once in that game against us, he looked good on a bad team.

Thats the question that still needs answered.

Hard to account for numbers when a player is on a terrible team. We saw that on past Wizards teams. We know what that looks like.

He does look the part of a NBA player though. We should have a better picture after this year.

I liked him as our pick for that draft. So I'm not shocked he looks like a viable prospect.

I read this kind of thing *all the time* and it is meaningless.

When we were a terrible team, no one discounted Wall playing well. Guys play as well as they play. If you have more guys who play well, you win more games. That's why when you're choosing guys for your team in the park, you pick the best players!

The other thing that makes this kind of statement meaningless is that we also, and equally and from the same people, hear the exact opposite! The reason a guy looks good is because he's playing on a good team. This was said over and over about Kawhi Leonard.

It can't be both ways -- a rookie plays well but it really doesn't mean he's a good player, because he's playing on a bad team it's all "garbage minutes." Or because he's playing on a good team where he's getting better coaching and he isn't being guarded closely either.

Moreover, the statements are used selectively -- when a person is looking for a reason to discount someone. I don't mean to focus on Hands, because so many people do this, but as it happens I remember the praise he gave Vucevic for his play -- on a terrible team! -- and the skepticism about Nerlens Noel's play -- also on a terrible team!

Another version of the contradiction is saying, for example, "Kevin Seraphin would have become a better player had he been drafted by the Spurs instead of the Wizards when we were terrible", and then saying some other player is only looking good because he is playing for a terrible team. Kevin Seraphin was terrible when the Wizards were terrible, and he was terrible when the Wizards were pretty good.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#562 » by hands11 » Tue Jul 7, 2015 2:38 pm

Rafael122 wrote:
Induveca wrote:
LyricalRico wrote:
At this point they almost have to just waive Haywood. Using him in a trade is going to just be too expensive.


Gilbert is worth about 5 billion. Other than the Blazers and Paul Allen, he's the wealthiest owner I believe. If he really wants a title, he'll spend wildly for one year.

Steinbrenner used to spend 120 million in salary 15 years ago........these aren't huge expenses when you factor in profits, capital and long-term marketing exposure.


Yeah but billionaires didn't become billionaires by recklessly spending money.


LeBron currently is still the best player in the league. If you have that, you have a chance for a title. LeBron may be physically past his prime but he is mental right in it. If you are going to spend to win, now would be the time.

Given the competition is SAS with Duncans clock running out, the bar is set high.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#563 » by Rafael122 » Tue Jul 7, 2015 2:58 pm

Rafael122 wrote:
Induveca wrote:
Rafael122 wrote:
Yeah but billionaires didn't become billionaires by recklessly spending money.


They made 60 million last year, it's not that reckless. If they pay 80 million tax, and win the title? He'll likely only be negative 20 million. That will quickly be recouped next year, and it's a one year write off. Instead of a 40-60 million profit they write it down to 20-40.

It's not a horrible move.


Well, I don't see Cleveland winning it anyway. A lot would have to go wrong w/the West team, injuries etc. The West is just too stacked man.

Does anyone know what their projected total salaries are in 2016 and beyond? I have to think they're above the tax for 2016 making it a bit more difficult to spend.


Answered my own question, they're at roughly $96 million in total salaries on the $90 million cap. That doesn't include Mozgov's extension, and whether they re-sign Smith and/or Delly. That's a lot of salary for a team that realistically is probably 6-7 deep.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#564 » by barelyawake » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:14 pm

Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#565 » by hands11 » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:18 pm

payitforward wrote:
hands11 wrote:
closg00 wrote:Just saw Clarkson once in that game against us, he looked good on a bad team.

Thats the question that still needs answered.

Hard to account for numbers when a player is on a terrible team. We saw that on past Wizards teams. We know what that looks like.

He does look the part of a NBA player though. We should have a better picture after this year.

I liked him as our pick for that draft. So I'm not shocked he looks like a viable prospect.

I read this kind of thing *all the time* and it is meaningless.

When we were a terrible team, no one discounted Wall playing well. Guys play as well as they play. If you have more guys who play well, you win more games. That's why when you're choosing guys for your team in the park, you pick the best players!

The other thing that makes this kind of statement meaningless is that we also, and equally and from the same people, hear the exact opposite! The reason a guy looks good is because he's playing on a good team. This was said over and over about Kawhi Leonard.

It can't be both ways -- a rookie plays well but it really doesn't mean he's a good player, because he's playing on a bad team it's all "garbage minutes." Or because he's playing on a good team where he's getting better coaching and he isn't being guarded closely either.

Moreover, the statements are used selectively -- when a person is looking for a reason to discount someone. I don't mean to focus on Hands, because so many people do this, but as it happens I remember the praise he gave Vucevic for his play -- on a terrible team! -- and the skepticism about Nerlens Noel's play -- also on a terrible team!

Another version of the contradiction is saying, for example, "Kevin Seraphin would have become a better player had he been drafted by the Spurs instead of the Wizards when we were terrible", and then saying some other player is only looking good because he is playing for a terrible team. Kevin Seraphin was terrible when the Wizards were terrible, and he was terrible when the Wizards were pretty good.


Yes.. Both can be true and there is no contradiction. Different players. Different situation. Different outcome metrics. Different topics. Rarely in life does the simple this or that answer one shoe fits all cover all situations. Also, there is a line of logic you don't seem to use which is, sometimes both things are true. The glass is half full and half empty. So yes, it does come down to what people want to focus on. I post on that topic frequently. Negative outcome thinkers vs positive outcome thinkers. You can read up on the topics if you would like.

As for this specific reply to my specific post.. read what I wrote and try to understand the intent. It a sports board on a sport board. Post are made in summary of a thought. These are not technical written scientific research papers. At least most the time they aren't. Here is all I wrote.

"Hard to account for numbers when a player is on a terrible team. We saw that on past Wizards teams. We know what that looks like.

He does look the part of a NBA player though. We should have a better picture after this year."

That were fair and accurate statements and there was really nothing to nip pick.

I do find it curious how your mind fragments and resembles things to create story lines that are misrepresenting on what was actually posted. I also notice you tend to do it in a argumentative way were you assume the superior intellect. Curious.

I stand by what I have said in other posts. Kevin S would have had a better shot at reaching his potential sooner if he landed on a stable winning team were his role was better defined with good mentoring. K Leonard in my view benefited from this by landing on SAS. Had he landed in SAC, I don't think he would be the player he is today. There are other instances where I believe it can be beneficial that a player land on a lessor good team where they can get up a lot of efficient reps so they can develop their game. But you do always want good mentoring on the team. Even if it's older less productive players.

As for Clarkson. I liked him as a prospect that year. I even wanted us to draft him. As a PG with his skills and maturity, I think its easier to produce even when you land on a worse team. Him getting the reps up he did last year on a losing team is fine for a player like him for a year. But with more good players around him and being a PG, he will be asked to draw of different skills. We will see how that effects his numbers. Specially when he has Kobe who is a ball dominate player on the floor with him.

So what I said stands.

"He does look the part of a NBA player though. We should have a better picture after this year."

No reply is needed.
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Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#566 » by Induveca » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:43 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).


It's an organizational issue more than anything. We have *zero* history of sustained success with our management team. I think everyone realizes Wall/Beal are solid players.

The real issue is Buford/Poppovich and their 10 or so final runs vs Grunfeld/Wittman? Who would you choose, if you're looking to make the finals, everything else being equal?

Poppovich: 1022 W - 470 L / 5 championships in 15 years
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#567 » by Wizardspride » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:45 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).

You're making an assumption Aldridge would have been interested in coming here.

And hypothetically speaking, say you get Aldridge. I assume you'd prefer him over the possibility of KD?

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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#568 » by barelyawake » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:52 pm

Wizardspride wrote:
barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).

You're making an assumption Aldridge would have been interested in coming here.

And hypothetically speaking, say you get Aldridge. I assume you'd prefer him over the possibility of KD?

IF KD wanted to join that team, it's fairly easy to get him (as I have outlined).

Wall
Oubre
Porter
KD
Aldridge

Trade Beal and Gortat.

And yes, the Spurs have a better coach and GM. Well, that's the problem isn't it?
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Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#569 » by Induveca » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:56 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Wizardspride wrote:
barelyawake wrote:And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).

You're making an assumption Aldridge would have been interested in coming here.

And hypothetically speaking, say you get Aldridge. I assume you'd prefer him over the possibility of KD?

IF KD wanted to join that team, it's fairly easy to get him (as I have outlined).

Wall
Oubre
Porter
KD
Aldridge

Trade Beal and Gortat.

And yes, the Spurs have a better coach and GM. Well, that's the problem isn't it?


Yes it definitely is, and any major free agent will take that into account. Aldridge was never an option, and apparently neither are older free agents who want to win a championship. Pierce was awesome, but him bolting did us no favors this offseason with guys like David West who wanted to "win now".
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#570 » by Ironpanthr » Tue Jul 7, 2015 3:58 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).


We "could" have been a lot of things. Free Agency is a 2-way street. Ask the Lakers and Knicks about that. For better or worse, the Wizards are making their moves for next year and a chance at Durant based on chatter (credible or not) that he might be interested. They are doing that instead of taking a chance on Aldridge or any other high profile 2015 FAs, none of which gave any indication whatsoever of being interested in coming to DC.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#571 » by barelyawake » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:02 pm

You are saying that Aldridge was never an option because of our GM and coach (not because of the moves we could have made; cap or talent). Well then, you've identified the problem. Shouldn't the owner recognize that as well?
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#572 » by LyricalRico » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:03 pm

Wizardspride wrote:
barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).

You're making an assumption Aldridge would have been interested in coming here.

And hypothetically speaking, say you get Aldridge. I assume you'd prefer him over the possibility of KD?


And also making the assumption that West was open to other destinations. PIF brought up a great point in another thread that there's no way West would walk away from $12M hoping that Spurs would keep Leonard, sign Aldridge, convince Manu to stay and then offer him the minimum.

Nah, you can't look at every single move every other team makes and scream "why didn't Ernie do that" from the rooftops. West to SA as the cherry on top of their offseason was probably a done deal before free agency began IMO. Can't wait to see the "X-mas presents" West gets from DA/Duncan/Pop this year. :D
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#573 » by barelyawake » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:05 pm

Ironpanthr wrote:
barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).


We "could" have been a lot of things. Free Agency is a 2-way street. Ask the Lakers and Knicks about that. For better or worse, the Wizards are making their moves for next year and a chance at Durant based on chatter (credible or not) that he might be interested. They are doing that instead of taking a chance on Aldridge or any other high profile 2015 FAs, none of which gave any indication whatsoever of being interested in coming to DC.

The Lakers and Knicks don't have a Wall/Beal backcourt who are a star big away from being a championship contender for years (and have the promise of KD coming the year after). Seriously, you are allowing management so many excuses.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#574 » by Ironpanthr » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:09 pm

barelyawake wrote:You are saying that Aldridge was never an option because of our GM and coach (not because of the moves we could have made; cap or talent). Well then, you've identified the problem. Shouldn't the owner recognize that as well?


I'm saying that Aldridge could only ever pick one team. He had several to pick from. The Wizards owner and GM decided not be one of them because they wanted to target someone else next year -- someone that they have reason to believe (right or wrong) they have a better shot at getting. I'm not affirmatively stating whether or not that's the right decision.

It's true that the Wiz have not positioned themselves to be able to go after both Aldridge this year and KD next year. You can criticize them for that if you want to. I will say that teams that did position themselves to take on more than 1 max player still struck out.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#575 » by Ironpanthr » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:14 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Ironpanthr wrote:
barelyawake wrote:And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).


We "could" have been a lot of things. Free Agency is a 2-way street. Ask the Lakers and Knicks about that. For better or worse, the Wizards are making their moves for next year and a chance at Durant based on chatter (credible or not) that he might be interested. They are doing that instead of taking a chance on Aldridge or any other high profile 2015 FAs, none of which gave any indication whatsoever of being interested in coming to DC.

The Lakers and Knicks don't have a Wall/Beal backcourt who are a star big away from being a championship contender for years (and have the promise of KD coming the year after). Seriously, you are allowing management so many excuses.


You mistake me. I'm not defending Wizards management. I'm saying that it seems far reaching to just say that we could've had this guy, or we could've had that guy. A lot of things could have happened. We could have moved mountains to make money for Aldridge, and if/when he didn't come, we (collectively -- I'm not targeting you specifically) would find something else to criticize.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#576 » by barelyawake » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:16 pm

Ironpanthr wrote:
barelyawake wrote:You are saying that Aldridge was never an option because of our GM and coach (not because of the moves we could have made; cap or talent). Well then, you've identified the problem. Shouldn't the owner recognize that as well?


I'm saying that Aldridge could only ever pick one team. He had several to pick from. The Wizards owner and GM decided not be one of them because they wanted to target someone else next year -- someone that they have reason to believe (right or wrong) they have a better shot at getting. I'm not affirmatively stating whether or not that's the right decision.

It's true that the Wiz have not positioned themselves to be able to go after both Aldridge this year and KD next year. You can criticize them for that if you want to. I will say that teams that did position themselves to take on more than 1 max player still struck out.

It not JUST passing on attempting to get Aldridge (by selling the idea that we would be better than the Spurs, which we would, and that we have KD as an option, which no other team can sell except OKC), It's passing on every option to get a star big to this point. It's trying to construct a championship team without first getting a star big in the first place.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#577 » by Ironpanthr » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:32 pm

I don't think there are many here (myself included) that would disagree with your broader criticism of Wiz management in this respect. There are probably errors made in successive years that have brought us to where we are. But how many moves backwards would we have to go, realistically, to get us to a point where we (a) have the talent in place to attract Aldridge or other requisite star big, and (b) still have the cap space to get KD next year? There's certainly nothing we realistically could have done this offseason to make that happen.

I think our only real disagreement is in the value of criticizing them for past errors (perceived and real). I don't see any -- Aldridge wasn't coming this offseason. If it's just criticism for the sake of criticism, fair enough. Mistakes have been made, no arguing that.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#578 » by nate33 » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:43 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Induveca wrote:Spurs wow........Duncan/Aldridge/West? Good luck anyone not named Golden State in the W.

And it's a bit concerning the Wiz were unable to convince Pierce to stick around or sign a single solid free agent.

And if we sent out a draft pick to free us of dead weight (or, you know, not sign them in the first place), we could have been:

Wall/Sessions
Beal/Oubre
Porter/Dudley
West/Aldridge
Aldridge/Gortat

I love that the Spurs end up doing what I would want our management to do so many offseasons. And for those thinking we couldn't compete with the Spurs in terms of drawing free agents, tell me the above team couldn't beat the current Spurs (especially once you add the vet mins who would flock to that team like they do the Spurs).

It's a pretty big leap to assume we could have landed Aldridge when he wanted to come home to Texas. I think our team offers a lot to woo a free agent, but we can't beat the talent and infrastructure (and tax advantages) of San Antonio.
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Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#579 » by Induveca » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:46 pm

barelyawake wrote:
Ironpanthr wrote:
barelyawake wrote:You are saying that Aldridge was never an option because of our GM and coach (not because of the moves we could have made; cap or talent). Well then, you've identified the problem. Shouldn't the owner recognize that as well?


I'm saying that Aldridge could only ever pick one team. He had several to pick from. The Wizards owner and GM decided not be one of them because they wanted to target someone else next year -- someone that they have reason to believe (right or wrong) they have a better shot at getting. I'm not affirmatively stating whether or not that's the right decision.

It's true that the Wiz have not positioned themselves to be able to go after both Aldridge this year and KD next year. You can criticize them for that if you want to. I will say that teams that did position themselves to take on more than 1 max player still struck out.

It not JUST passing on attempting to get Aldridge (by selling the idea that we would be better than the Spurs, which we would, and that we have KD as an option, which no other team can sell except OKC), It's passing on every option to get a star big to this point. It's trying to construct a championship team without first getting a star big in the first place.


Arguably, if you have Durant/Wall/Beal all clicking Gortat is more than enough. Success of teams the past 4-5 years have shown the NBA is getting smaller, for a variety of reasons. Analytics, stretch 4s, "big 3s" etc.

That isn't to say I wouldn't have loved to get Aldridge, and I wouldn't love to have Noel instead of Porter. But management chose to pursue other paths. It seems more like this argument belongs in the "Fire Grunfeld" thread. In that, we agree.
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Re: Discussing Other Teams' Moves Part 5 

Post#580 » by barelyawake » Tue Jul 7, 2015 4:47 pm

The problem is not focusing on what creates champions. My draft board for the past years have been: Buy a pick and get Gobert; Draft Drummond; buy a pick and draft Marc Gasol, etc etc... Every single year I have outlined how to get a star big here: Don't trade for Gortat tank for a big; Don't resign Gortat, trade for Chandler, let him expire, and go after Aldridge or Love; trade Nene and clear out space to go after West and Aldridge.

All of those options also allow us to go after KD. The problem is management doesn't take risks.

Ok... enough... I'm repeating myself again...

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