Woj: Kanter signing an offer sheet w/Portland

[DaVoiceMaster]

How many centers do Blazers have on their roster now? 6?

Kaman
Leonard
Ed Davis
Plumlee
Joel Freeland
Enes Kanter

No Freeland. He's a free agent. I'm guessing Philly has ore centers than the Blazers!

[Threethrows]

The last two max players the Jazz let walk were Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. Let that sink in a moment.

Maybe Kanter is worth it under the new cap though. Will see. I really like his offensive rebounding.

It's low risk for Portland. His defense will be bad enough to help with the tank, the team desperately needs some scorers right now even if they are tanking. If in a couple years his defense starts to improve they may have a great core with Lillard, Kanter, x1-2 lottery picks, FA signing. If even just one of CJ, Leonard or Vonleh break out as well this team could be really good by the tail end of his contract.

If not and he just keeps playing terrible defense, they still have the lottery picks, cap space and a good big man bench scorer/rebounder.

I kind of feel like OKC may bite down and match though.

[improper]

Because there is a repeater tax and OKC didn't want to get into it before Durant/Westbrook sign extensions

But why are they cheap in general, not just in this case. I'm curious too because OKC is a basketball town and they have two superstars.

They're not cheap, they have one of the highest payrolls in the league, they're always over the cap and were over the tax last year. This narrative really has to stop sometime.

Almost every team in the league has a high payroll, and basically every contending team is over the cap and or in the tax. The bottom line is that OKC broke up a team that had just made the Finals because they didn't want to pay Harden a couple million extra a year. That's the definition of being cheap.

I don't like everything that Dan Gilbert has done by any stretch of the imagination, but he saw his team make the Finals and so now he's paying whatever it takes to not only keep that core together, but improve upon it. That's what you want to see from your owner, and in OKC's case it wouldn't have cost anywhere near 100 million or more in tax like it will for Gilbert.

[DaVoiceMaster]

I don't hate Kanter as much as most people around here do but why is Portland interested in him? Their front court is already pretty crowded.

Same reason the T'wolves signed Batum to an offer sheet a few years back. To mess with a division team. On the off chance that the contract is not matched the Blazers get the player like with Wes but more likely the offer is matched like with Milsap.

Actually, I think it was Portland messing with Minnesota on the Batum deal. Minny kept saying this and that and the Blazers kept saying okay, let's see it. The Blazers simply waited for Minny to make their move and then matched.

A better example is what the Blazers did to Utah a few years back. They offered Milsap a big contract and forced Utah to match. The next season, the Blazers swooped in and stole Wesley Matthews because the Jazz could not afford him. Maybe the Blazers are doing the same thing with the Thunder so they can swoop in and steal Kevin Durant next summer?

[bondom34]

But why are they cheap in general, not just in this case. I'm curious too because OKC is a basketball town and they have two superstars.

They're not cheap, they have one of the highest payrolls in the league, they're always over the cap and were over the tax last year. This narrative really has to stop sometime.

Almost every team in the league has a high payroll, and basically every contending team is over the cap and or in the tax. The bottom line is that OKC broke up a team that had just made the Finals because they didn't want to pay Harden a couple million extra a year. That's the definition of being cheap.

I don't like everything that Dan Gilbert has done by any stretch of the imagination, but he saw his team make the Finals and so now he's paying whatever it takes to not only keep that core together, but improve upon it. That's what you want to see from your owner, and in OKC's case it wouldn't have cost anywhere near 100 million or more in tax like it will for Gilbert.

Well that's just wrong.

OKC was the second highest payroll last year using hoopshype or bbi. And the team that literally just won the title broke up their team because of the tax. I know Lee wasn't as important, but they still did and took back Wallace.

[miltk]

it's time for kd and especially westbrook to lay it down for okc. "i helped you, you have to help me,,,or i'm walking"

[Agenda42]

OKC was the second highest payroll last year using hoopshype or bbi. And the team that literally just won the title broke up their team because of the tax. I know Lee wasn't as important, but they still did and took back Wallace.

As I understand it, Lee wasn't in their plans and wasn't happy riding the bench. It was more a basketball decision than a financial one. If he were a useful rotation player in their minds, I think he would have stayed and played.

I remember liking Wallace a lot when he was in Portland. I just looked up his numbers and wow did he fall off a cliff. How in the world did we get Lillard for that guy?

[Effigy]

They're not cheap, they have one of the highest payrolls in the league, they're always over the cap and were over the tax last year. This narrative really has to stop sometime.

Almost every team in the league has a high payroll, and basically every contending team is over the cap and or in the tax. The bottom line is that OKC broke up a team that had just made the Finals because they didn't want to pay Harden a couple million extra a year. That's the definition of being cheap.

I don't like everything that Dan Gilbert has done by any stretch of the imagination, but he saw his team make the Finals and so now he's paying whatever it takes to not only keep that core together, but improve upon it. That's what you want to see from your owner, and in OKC's case it wouldn't have cost anywhere near 100 million or more in tax like it will for Gilbert.

Well that's just wrong.

OKC was the second highest payroll last year using hoopshype or bbi. And the team that literally just won the title broke up their team because of the tax. I know Lee wasn't as important, but they still did and took back Wallace.

Lol @ the warriors 'broke up their team'. That is certainly a creative interpretation of events.

[bondom34]

Almost every team in the league has a high payroll, and basically every contending team is over the cap and or in the tax. The bottom line is that OKC broke up a team that had just made the Finals because they didn't want to pay Harden a couple million extra a year. That's the definition of being cheap.

I don't like everything that Dan Gilbert has done by any stretch of the imagination, but he saw his team make the Finals and so now he's paying whatever it takes to not only keep that core together, but improve upon it. That's what you want to see from your owner, and in OKC's case it wouldn't have cost anywhere near 100 million or more in tax like it will for Gilbert.

Well that's just wrong.

OKC was the second highest payroll last year using hoopshype or bbi. And the team that literally just won the title broke up their team because of the tax. I know Lee wasn't as important, but they still did and took back Wallace.

Lol @ the warriors 'broke up their team'. That is certainly a creative interpretation of events.

I pretty clearly said it was different.

And they got back Gerald Wallace for an actual useful player.

And to boot, OKC is screwed in the gen board mass populus' mind either way, they match and lol OVERPAY, they don't and lol CHEAP. So its a lose lose, whatever, I get it people hate them.

[Effigy]

Well that's just wrong.

OKC was the second highest payroll last year using hoopshype or bbi. And the team that literally just won the title broke up their team because of the tax. I know Lee wasn't as important, but they still did and took back Wallace.

Lol @ the warriors 'broke up their team'. That is certainly a creative interpretation of events.

I pretty clearly said it was different.

And they got back Gerald Wallace for an actual useful player.

And to boot, OKC is screwed in the gen board mass populus' mind either way, they match and lol OVERPAY, they don't and lol CHEAP. So its a lose lose, whatever, I get it people hate them.

I don't think there will be much 'lol overpay' if they match, since it was Portland, not okc who offered the deal. However you can bet we will see charts comparing Harden's salary and production with Kanter's. It sucks but those are the breaks of making a bad trade for the wrong reasons.

And is it just me or is every fan base convinced that realgm hates their team?

[slick_watts]

Some of my insight on Kanter. Read into it what you will.

2014-15 DRPM, Enes Kanter ranked 73 of 73 among qualified centers:



DRPM is an APM based, ridge regressed +/- metric.

There's compelling lineup data both from Kanter's time in Utah last season and in OKC that call into question his defense. First off, here are some Serge Ibaka PF/C player pairings this year and their points allowed per 100 possessions:

Ibaka-Perkins 101.3
Ibaka-Collison 99.6
Ibaka-McGary 104.4
Ibaka-Adams 104.2
Ibaka-Kanter 111.1

View full list of Ibaka player pairings here: http://bkref.com/tiny/ItJh4

I've seen some excusing the team's inability to defend with Ibaka and Kanter on the court together, usually by claiming Ibaka was injured. But he clearly had no issue forming productive player pairings on defense with all of the other big men on the team.

Another 'explanation' is that Kanter and Ibaka had to play with poor wing defenders. Well, here's a breakdown of McGary-Collison from nbawowy: http://nbawowy.com/jcq7t3l2duyaxlxr#/jcq7t3l2duyaxlxr

As you can see, this pairing played very little with Andre Roberson -- by far the best wing defender on the team, and almost all of its minutes with DJ Augustin and Anthony Morrow. Yet the pairing allowed a paltry 96.8 points per 100 possessions.

Speaking of DJ Augustin, he's a poorly rated defensive player himself. But we can see the 'Kanter Dichotomy' with him, as well. Here's Augustin's nbawowy with Kanter off the court: http://nbawowy.com/rrzbygg6p7qzolxr#/rrzbygg6p7qzolxr

And here's Augustin's nbawowy with Kanter on the court: http://nbawowy.com/pnwxncz7dq60qkt9#/pnwxncz7dq60qkt9

A difference of almost 10 points per 100 possessions defensively.

Now, there are ways to massage this data to implicate Russell Westbrook, as he played a ton of his minutes with Enes Kanter. Westbrook is certainly not the best defender in the world, but we have plenty of data last year on Kanter in a scenario absent Westbrook: the Utah Jazz.

I know what everyone says. Rudy Gobert is the reason why the Jazz improved so much on defense, and Kanter's influence was negligible. Well, what better way to address this 'explanation' than to remove Gobert from the data.

Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors played 841 minutes together in 2014-15. Here's their nbawowy: http://nbawowy.com/p7k16d6dleszia4i#/p7k16d6dleszia4i

Derrick Favors played 579 minutes in the Jazz front court last year without Kanter OR Rudy Gobert. Here's that nbawowy: http://nbawowy.com/2trkjqfwz1j4te29#/2trkjqfwz1j4te29

How curious. In the first scenario, the Jazz are allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions (about the same as Kanter-Ibaka, hmm...). In the second scenario without Kanter and without Gobert, the Jazz are allowing 104.3 points per 100 possessions. Sound familiar?

After what point to the 'explanations' read more as 'excuses'. There's a truckload of data here that is in consensus with the fact that Enes Kanter is one of the worst, if not the worst, defensive centers in the NBA.

[Moonbeam]

Ugh. I'll be very unhappy if OKC doesn't match.

[Zion Wembanyama]

70 million?!?!?!?!

[Agenda42]

After what point to the 'explanations' read more as 'excuses'. There's a truckload of data here that is in consensus with the fact that Enes Kanter is one of the worst, if not the worst, defensive centers in the NBA.

I'm excited for a possible Lillard/Kanter pick and roll "defense" next season. Is it possible for both the ball handler and the pick man to score on the same play? We'd find out!

Seriously though, I think Kanter has the tools to become defensively mediocre one day. He's just sulked, pouted, and dogged it on defense his whole career. I wonder if he gets motivated by a change of scenery -- we already saw that he's a much more productive player in OKC than in Utah on the offensive end.

[BudTugly]

Some of my insight on Kanter. Read into it what you will.

2014-15 DRPM, Enes Kanter ranked 73 of 73 among qualified centers:



DRPM is an APM based, ridge regressed +/- metric.

There's compelling lineup data both from Kanter's time in Utah last season and in OKC that call into question his defense. First off, here are some Serge Ibaka PF/C player pairings this year and their points allowed per 100 possessions:

Ibaka-Perkins 101.3
Ibaka-Collison 99.6
Ibaka-McGary 104.4
Ibaka-Adams 104.2
Ibaka-Kanter 111.1

View full list of Ibaka player pairings here: http://bkref.com/tiny/ItJh4

I've seen some excusing the team's inability to defend with Ibaka and Kanter on the court together, usually by claiming Ibaka was injured. But he clearly had no issue forming productive player pairings on defense with all of the other big men on the team.

Another 'explanation' is that Kanter and Ibaka had to play with poor wing defenders. Well, here's a breakdown of McGary-Collison from nbawowy: http://nbawowy.com/jcq7t3l2duyaxlxr#/jcq7t3l2duyaxlxr

As you can see, this pairing played very little with Andre Roberson -- by far the best wing defender on the team, and almost all of its minutes with DJ Augustin and Anthony Morrow. Yet the pairing allowed a paltry 96.8 points per 100 possessions.

Speaking of DJ Augustin, he's a poorly rated defensive player himself. But we can see the 'Kanter Dichotomy' with him, as well. Here's Augustin's nbawowy with Kanter off the court: http://nbawowy.com/rrzbygg6p7qzolxr#/rrzbygg6p7qzolxr

And here's Augustin's nbawowy with Kanter on the court: http://nbawowy.com/pnwxncz7dq60qkt9#/pnwxncz7dq60qkt9

A difference of almost 10 points per 100 possessions defensively.

Now, there are ways to massage this data to implicate Russell Westbrook, as he played a ton of his minutes with Enes Kanter. Westbrook is certainly not the best defender in the world, but we have plenty of data last year on Kanter in a scenario absent Westbrook: the Utah Jazz.

I know what everyone says. Rudy Gobert is the reason why the Jazz improved so much on defense, and Kanter's influence was negligible. Well, what better way to address this 'explanation' than to remove Gobert from the data.

Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors played 841 minutes together in 2014-15. Here's their nbawowy: http://nbawowy.com/p7k16d6dleszia4i#/p7k16d6dleszia4i

Derrick Favors played 579 minutes in the Jazz front court last year without Kanter OR Rudy Gobert. Here's that nbawowy: http://nbawowy.com/2trkjqfwz1j4te29#/2trkjqfwz1j4te29

How curious. In the first scenario, the Jazz are allowing 112.4 points per 100 possessions (about the same as Kanter-Ibaka, hmm...). In the second scenario without Kanter and without Gobert, the Jazz are allowing 104.3 points per 100 possessions. Sound familiar?

After what point to the 'explanations' read more as 'excuses'. There's a truckload of data here that is in consensus with the fact that Enes Kanter is one of the worst, if not the worst, defensive centers in the NBA.

Nice post but it's really not that hard to see how bad the guy is. Only fanboys and FBB enthusiasts love Kanter. I suppose you could say that on the bright side he pretty clearly possesses some talent and is young so with the right teammates and coach maybe you could get the guy to play defense. Charlotte had good results with Al his first year there.

Sedano on ESPN radio today stated that Kanter is the worst defensive player at least 6'11" since like 1974. And there could be 2 teams willing to pay him max. It's an amazing league.

[slick_watts]

After what point to the 'explanations' read more as 'excuses'. There's a truckload of data here that is in consensus with the fact that Enes Kanter is one of the worst, if not the worst, defensive centers in the NBA.

I'm excited for a possible Lillard/Kanter pick and roll "defense" next season. Is it possible for both the ball handler and the pick man to score on the same play? We'd find out!

Seriously though, I think Kanter has the tools to become defensively mediocre one day. He's just sulked, pouted, and dogged it on defense his whole career. I wonder if he gets motivated by a change of scenery -- we already saw that he's a much more productive player in OKC than in Utah on the offensive end.

'One day' is the key phrase here. Eventually he might. I can't think of too many bigs who are this poor on defense improving before their 7th-9th season or so. Zach Randolph maybe one pertinent example. Didn't care about defense until Memphis, his 9th year in the league. Many others never seem to put it together.

The improvements on offense are compelling and undeniable but still a small sample of his career numbers. Will he be a 60%+ TS scorer, 17%+ ORB force for the long term? His ORB% in OKC would have led the league in all but one of the last 20 seasons I believe. I'd anticipate some regression to mean on offense no matter where he ends up.

[Han Solo]

Kanter is a worse defender than Greg Monroe.. If I'm a OKC fan, I'm hoping my front office will pass on this deal.

[Agenda42]

'One day' is the key phrase here. Eventually he might. I can't think of too many bigs who are this poor on defense improving before their 7th-9th season or so. Zach Randolph maybe one pertinent example. Didn't care about defense until Memphis, his 9th year in the league. Many others never seem to put it together.

The improvements on offense are compelling and undeniable but still a small sample of his career numbers. Will he be a 60%+ TS scorer, 17%+ ORB force for the long term? His ORB% in OKC would have led the league in all but one of the last 20 seasons I believe. I'd anticipate some regression to mean on offense no matter where he ends up.

Yup. We're on the same page here.

My view is that Kanter is worth more to Portland than OKC. Portland has oodles of cap space and isn't going anywhere fast. They can offer Kanter tons of developmental minutes as the clearly best big on their roster and hope he becomes something other than a turnstile over the next 4 years. It seems highly unlikely that he'll earn that contract this season.

The thing is, I can't see OKC letting him go given Durant free agency. Bad optics. Maybe if Durant signed off on it.

[aIvin adams]

Lol @ the warriors 'broke up their team'. That is certainly a creative interpretation of events.

I pretty clearly said it was different.

And they got back Gerald Wallace for an actual useful player.

And to boot, OKC is screwed in the gen board mass populus' mind either way, they match and lol OVERPAY, they don't and lol CHEAP. So its a lose lose, whatever, I get it people hate them.

I don't think there will be much 'lol overpay' if they match, since it was Portland, not okc who offered the deal. However you can bet we will see charts comparing Harden's salary and production with Kanter's. It sucks but those are the breaks of making a bad trade for the wrong reasons.

And is it just me or is every fan base convinced that realgm hates their team?

that's a fact.

a fact which results in something exceptional: Laker fans actually being right about something.

[bondom34]

Lol @ the warriors 'broke up their team'. That is certainly a creative interpretation of events.

I pretty clearly said it was different.

And they got back Gerald Wallace for an actual useful player.

And to boot, OKC is screwed in the gen board mass populus' mind either way, they match and lol OVERPAY, they don't and lol CHEAP. So its a lose lose, whatever, I get it people hate them.

I don't think there will be much 'lol overpay' if they match, since it was Portland, not okc who offered the deal. However you can bet we will see charts comparing Harden's salary and production with Kanter's. It sucks but those are the breaks of making a bad trade for the wrong reasons.

And is it just me or is every fan base convinced that realgm hates their team?

I'll give you the and 1 for that man, you're dead on there. Sorry, just is a pain in the butt that every OKC thread turns to the same thing. The bad thing for me is I don't want them to match because he's just not that good tbh, you guys can have him .