I think KD is coming next year

Jaxon · Post #1 » by **Jaxon** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:50 am

This is going to be a long post, so fair warning.

Like a lot of us when I first heard about Riley planning to go after KD in '16 I brushed it off and viewed it as highly unlikely. His options would either be to stay with the Thunder or go to the Wizards. But through the course of this offseason and after more thought I've had a change of heart. Players take notice of how an organization runs itself and puts itself into positions to succeed and Riley is doing an incredible job of that this season. Guys are buying into the idea and signing one year contracts for far less money than they could get elsewhere to come here (more on that later). Riley is handling his business internally (getting all our guys back) and convincing free agents externally to give up money to play here. This is always an attractive spot to play and free agents will accept less to come here, and Riley is the GOAT closer. I 100% believe KD is paying attention to this and I don't think Riley's confidence in being able to make a run at KD is based off pure belief in himself. People believe KD would not jump ship from OKC for anywhere but Washington because of loyalty and are applying the LeBron/Jordan stigma to him that he should have guys come to him and stay put where he is at. However, what recent free agent history has taught me (and NBA history in general) is that these guys WILL leave the team that drafted them for a better winning situation, and KD is NOT Jordan or LeBron and wasn't expected to be, and as far as loyalty goes he could very well look and say he gave the first 8-9 years of his career to OKC but recognizes that they've hit their ceiling and it is simply time to move on to win. Superstar free agents do this all the time, there are only a couple in history who actually stay where they're at, and even those threatened to jump ship if their orgs did not do a better job of surrounding them with talent. People believe KD is not the type to do that because he is laid back and somewhat quiet, but I think he is very apt to leave and just will not do it in a dramatic way like some other free agents.

I think whether KD looks at us as a serious option depends on three things: 1) how the Thunder lose, 2) what the Wizards look like next year, and 3) how far we make it in the playoffs. If the Thunder are bounced in the second round again next year or worse, I think he will seriously consider leaving to start winning and the organization will have no one to blame but themselves for letting Harden go. Second, if the Wizards implode (which I think has a good chance of happening for several reasons) he is not going to go there just because it's a team in his hometown. If these two things fall into place and KD takes a serious look at the lay of the land in the league, he will be hard-pressed to find a better situation for him than the Heat. Nay, we are definitely THE BEST situation for him to come to both on and off the court and it's not even close. The roster Riley has put together is the perfect compliment to KD with a bunch of vets with championship experience and selfless attitudes to surround him, as well as a young defensive wing in Winslow to back him up and keep his minutes down. And their skill set fits. We have two elite ball handlers in the backcourt to get KD easy buckets who are not going to try to overshadow him and be Batman like Westbrook. And, obviously, are highly offensively capable themselves. A stretch 4 that will space the court for him and a legit 7 foot defensive center that will cover up any mistakes he makes on defense as well as being offensively capable and not a sieve on that end of the court. Then on the bench we have several highly capable offensive weapons and, again, a great versatile, defensive wing in Winslow. KD is going to look at this roster and see that no one in the league will fit him better and there is no other team in the league that he can realistically go to and literally punch a ticket to a championship with like us. Which brings up the point of how well we do in the playoffs. If we make it to the ECF (let alone maybe even the Finals) the pitch for Riley to KD pretty much writes itself and is inarguable. All he has to say is we made it THIS far without you, and you alone are the missing piece between us and a potential dynasty. And then drop all his 9 rings on the table. KD will be 28 and he will KNOW it is time for him to start winning something, as Dragic said in his press conference yesterday.

We will be in an unique position pretty much no other team will be in, where we have a highly capable roster that can contend for a championship NOW while still having the cap space to be able to bring in KD for the max and still retain all of or most of our important pieces. We will be the only team in the league with a championship history and pedigree, with a roster ready to win now, with the cap space to sign KD for the max. The Lakers will not be in that position, the Knicks won't, the Bulls won't, the Spurs/Warriors/Grizzlies etc etc. We are the only ones. It puts us at an unique advantage, on top of being recognized as an A Class organization league wide, no state income tax, South Beach, etc. We are just the perfect landing spot on and off for KD.

I think drafting Justise will end up being huge in getting KD for more reasons than one. Having Winslow back KD up will be extremely appealing to him and I think he is going to recognize that Winslow can be his running mate into his twilight years after Wade retires and for now it's going to be really comforting for him to know he can sit and his position not be an albatross behind him. I think the one advantage the Wizards may have had over us (other than being from KD's hometown) is that Wall and Beal are relatively young and they would clearly be able to run with KD for years while here Wade's and to a certain extent Bosh's days are numbered (although I think Bosh can have a similar career trajectory as Pau and Duncan). With the emergence of Whiteside and the drafting of Winslow, that advantage now becomes null and void and possibly even an advantage for us depending on how those two look this year in comparison to Wall and Beal. Second, and what we all know is most obvious, is that Winslow and KD share the same agent/agency and are already building a relationship. These types of relationships are extremely important in getting free agents and KD is going to hear all about how great an organization the Heat is for the next year, and his agent will trust us and maybe even look specifically to try and get him here.

Finally, going back to the free agent signings, I do not think Gerald Green, Amare, D-Wade, are just signing these one year deals without knowing something. D-Wade aside, Amare and Green, who have no real prior connection to the Heat or reason to help us out to the extent they have, I don't believe are just giving up money and guaranteed years to HOPEFULLY be on a contender this year. I think they are giving us that flexibility for a reason, and know something is going to be going down in South Beach and want to hop on this year and get acclimated and re-up on another cheap deal next year. I think they know, for whatever reason, that Riley has a good chance of signing the big fish he wants next year.

A little bit of fortune will be involved in bringing in KD, but I think it is A LOT more possible than I did just a couple weeks ago and I can clearly see how it could happen now. Riley is on a rampage and no one can tell me that if he gets KD in a room with cap space to sign him and a team that clearly showed they are ready to win, that he can't get him to HEAVILY consider coming to South Beach, and once it's in his head it will be hard to say no to. For me next season will be an audition for KD, honestly, and wherever we end up is going to determine whether he comes here or not. I don't expect a championship, I think we have a shot to win the East but we are just missing that singular superstar to help get us over whatever team comes out the West. But even without a ship this year, and even if we lose to Cleveland, if we do enough to impress KD, I will consider this season a success.

Oh, and I forgot to mention, we're in the East lol, so KD will be able to get out of the annual bloodbath that is the West with us as well, and put himself in position immediately to be at the top of the conference.

HIF · Post #2 » by **HIF** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 9:57 am

short reply:

He's not.

SoFlaKingReal · Post #3 » by **SoFlaKingReal** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:05 am

Good write up....Riley could very well strike gold AGAIN.

krikor · Post #4 » by **krikor** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:12 am

There is nothing that excites him to come here. Our team is probably oldest team in league at this point.

goodboy · Post #5 » by **goodboy** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:24 am

Strong jinx is strong.

RexBoyWonder · Post #6 » by **RexBoyWonder** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 10:40 am

Stars players today are super self-conscious about the media narratives. There's no way Durnat comes to a place where he knows he's got huge shoes to fill, will constantly get compared to LBJ, big wining will be expected, the Media folks would suck all the joy out of it.

And frankly to a degree rightfully so, Joining the Heat after what we already did with Wade and then Lebron - It's not a great story for a young superstar carrier. He needs to write his own story and find a new original path.

That was my initial thought about the KD sweepstakes.

HOWEVER, the killer offseason we just had did have a (small) impact on out chances, IMO.

It's still a long shot, I just don't see him leaving OKC with all the talent they have there, and I really don't think he wants to try and copy what Lebron did here.

BUT, from a pure basketball point of view, I agree we are starting to emerge as a good option for him.

It really depends on the development of our youngsters - If Whiteside, Winslow, J-Rich have a great year - we'll have a very tempting combination of a bright present + a bright future. He knows what Bosh, Wade and Dragic can do, but if the young guys could really impress, it's going to be a huge factor.

We really need several breaks in order for KD to happen - Bosh and Wade need to stay healthy, we need to have a strong year as a team, need to make a deep playoff run, need the young guys to really show something, need OKC to fail in a big way, Need to hope another team without LBJ history doesn't emerge as a better option for him, Need Whiteside to beast, need Wade to be willing to take a HUGE discount next year to even open up enough space, need to keep our new found depth for another year.

I would say the chances of him coming to Miami went from 0.2% to start the summer to 10% now.

ZoStrong · Post #7 » by **ZoStrong** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:16 am

Way too early for this conversation.

And, to be honest, us talking has already killed any chance of this happening.
Keep in mind that all the big acquisitions we got under Riley came out of left field.

My hunch is everyone except Wade and Dragic (and Whiteside depending on his performance next season) will be trade chips to bring in a potential superstar. Even Bosh and Winslow could be packaged to bring in a top-tier superstar. Imagine Sacramento Kings completely bomb next season and they do a fire sale. Would you trade Bosh for Cousins? I would. Zo was a hot head before coming to Miami. Cousins has all the talents to be a HOF caliber player in the league in the right environment. We broke up a fun, up-and-coming team to bring in Shaq. Riley will not hesitate to trade the half the team to bring in a bona fide superstar who's stuck in a wrong team.

Anyways, we don't even know who will be our 15 for next season yet. Let's wait until after the training camp for this speculation.

HIF · Post #8 » by **HIF** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 11:25 am

We're more likely to sign SupercoolBeasus.

Post #9 » by **DefenseWins** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 1:53 pm

Nah KD signs a 1 year deal then becomes an FA in 2017 with his buddy Westbrook

Seabass777 · Post #10 » by **Seabass777** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:15 pm

Yeah I think our chances of landing him are great,and you pretty much covered all the reasons why.

That's one of the reasons,and I know I'm showing my Micheal Beasley homerism,why I still want Beasley on the team since it's just another factor we'd have in our favor if he were to come,KD's best friend.

Like everyone's mentioned before A LOT of things have to go right for us,but it's a nice thought to have that we can still compete and make a run at the Cavs,while we still have the hope and chance of landing a superstar.

3ballbomber · Post #11 » by **3ballbomber** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:17 pm

Again, i will reiterate.........Every big fish Riley has caught is one that the public are not anticipating, reporting, is not publicized & rumored.......Shaq, Lebron, Dragic etc. Hell we could have even gotten Aldridge out of the blue if we had the money.

OKC has a hell of a team over there. KD isn't Lebron James, he won't bolt simply because his team isn't winning, he's no coward! He was injured most of last season, he will come back w/ a vengeance this season. If they don't make WCF or Finals Durant and crew will simply try again the following season. Most likely Thunder will make a splash in Free Agency to improve their team & to please Durant.

Heat_Fan_87 · Post #12 » by **Heat_Fan_87** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:17 pm

depends what KD is looking for. I don't think he is coming here. But it wouldn't surprise me if he did. He has to realize that the east gives him the best chance of winning a ring. I'd say washington is where he ends up if he changes teams.

Post #13 » by **DefenseWins** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:33 pm

if OKC makes the Finals or WCF he will try another year to go after it with Westbrook

Westbrook was such a chucker but man, he is a dominant force in this league now.

greg4012 · Post #14 » by **greg4012** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 2:48 pm

krikor wrote:There is nothing that excites him to come here. Our team is probably oldest team in league at this point.

Guys likely to return for 2017 season:

Dragic (29)
Wade (33)
Winslow (19)
Bosh (31)
Josh McRoberts (28)
Hassan Whiteside (26)
Tyler Johnson (23)
Josh Richardson (21)

Looks extremely balanced age wise with a lot of core pieces on the right side of 30. Basically just Wade being old there.

walk with me · Post #15 » by **walk with me** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:06 pm

I'm confident to say at a minimum that KDK at LEAST has to entertain a conversation from us. If we can make it to the ECF this year all riley has to do is throw out his rings and say "you are the missing link for us to get over the hump"

then it will just be a case of whether KD wants to play for a winning franchise or not.

Edit:

ESPECIALLY if lebron loses this year. If lebron doesn't win a ring this year it goes to show that we made lebron great and not the other way around. So there should be less pressure for KD to "follow lebrons footsteps" it would really just be KD joining a top NBA franchise.

Heat3 · Post #16 » by **Heat3** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:12 pm

I just want Riley in a room with him. Btw, when is Westbrook a free agent?

I'll be happy with either one.

3ballbomber · Post #17 » by **3ballbomber** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:15 pm

greg4012 wrote:
krikor wrote:There is nothing that excites him to come here. Our team is probably oldest team in league at this point.

Guys likely to return for 2017 season:

Dragic (29)
Wade (33)
Winslow (19)
Bosh (31)
Josh McRoberts (28)
Hassan Whiteside (26)
Tyler Johnson (23)
Josh Richardson (21)

Looks extremely balanced age wise with a lot of core pieces on the right side of 30. Basically just Wade being old there.

Like i've been saying......we currently have a perfect age group of players right now for a championship run. PERFECT! Most are at that ripe age of around 28-31 where some play their best basketball being so seasoned, battle tested & experienced.

People who keep saying we're old must be 16yo's.

Seabass777 · Post #18 » by **Seabass777** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:22 pm

Miami is Kevin Durant's stealth team in 2016:

The people of Miami may not be the biggest fans of Bill Simmons, as evidenced by his Final 4 appearance in the Miami Sports Hate Bracket, but there’s some speculative juice from his column on Grantland today that will surely make Heat fans giddy.

The unabashed Celtics fan who blatantly rooted against the red and black the last four seasons mentions Miami as a “stealth” destination for Kevin Durant in the summer of 2016:

“Dudes will always want to play in Miami. For that and many other reasons, here’s your stealth Durant/2016 destination. Not Washington, not New York, not Los Angeles. Here. South Beach. They’ve done it before; they’ll do it again. Miami will ALWAYS be fine. That’s why Riley doesn’t care about giving up those future first-rounders. Ride or die — remember?”

Whether Miami will even have the cap space to pursue the grandiose possibility of adding KD is another story. Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, and Luol Deng have player-options for next season and Hassan Whiteside is likely in for a massive payday after his bargain deal expires after the 2015-16 season.

Yet there’s a chance Dragic, Wade, and Deng either opt in this summer or sign new deals with a one-year out to maintain the flexibility of becoming free agents in 2016 when the NBA salary cap will boom with the influx of new TV money. This means higher maximum contracts and teams oozing with cash to spend.

Adding Durant to the mix in Miami might seem like a farfetched scenario today, but did people not think the same preceding the Heat’s free-agent haul of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh in the summer of 2010?

Pat Riley is a dreamer, sure, but he has a track record of converting the fantasy into reality.

WD · Post #19 » by WD » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:22 pm

I am just going to enjoy THIS SEASON, thinking about next season at this moment is a waste of my concern. BUT, I am going on the record and say

HE'S NOT COMING TO MIAMI

3ballbomber · Post #20 » by **3ballbomber** » Sat Jul 11, 2015 3:28 pm

Leave dreaming about KD for your sleep. We have plenty of work to be done for this coming season......