OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[slick_watts]

its due to 30 years of basketball experience and a long term relationship with a hall of fame coach..

Wait a minute... are you Jeanie Buss...?

[Bravenewworld]

And FYI, this is how it always ends up.

Nah. It wont end until a year or so from now when we are arguing about something else and i have to point out that you were once again wrong in your hyperbole. Ive tried to suggest that you go with less strict stances and less disaster scenario's, but you seem to want to always go that direction.

[slick_watts]

Go back a couple pages.

I went back and the only example I saw is Zach Randolph. Coincidentally, Zach Ranolph is the only big man whose first four seasons of -1.0 DBPM or worse (Kanter at -1.9) who went on to be a productive defensive player later in his career. I posted this data earlier. See? Data can corroborate with your eye test. The problem is I think you will find a lot of trouble locating another example. And you will find few to no examples of this occurring with a player as young as Kanter.

Its not necessarily a low post option we need. We just need a high percentage and high producing scorer who can step in when our offense gets stagnant.

We have the best scorer in the league. Did you forget about him?

Again, how many times have we lost games because of this? Or better yet, how often do we see OKC down in the first quarter and having to play catch up?

This is your argument. You provide the data and evidence. Otherwise, it's an anecdote. There's plenty of resources for you to get this information so that your claims can be confirmed or denied.

With Kanter we can easily avoid these situations for the most part.

Again, where's the evidence for this claim? Serge Ibaka has the highest USG% of any player to play with Durant and Westbrook at 18%. Would Kanter be higher? Seems unlikely. Ibaka-Durant-Westbrook have been a high performing group with any lineup combinations. Again, where's the data to support your claims?

You can try to spin it however you want, but it still remains an issue that we have always been faced with.

More claims with no evidence. Basketball-reference and other sites have all this information. You can't expect to have your claims taken seriously when they can be tested and you're not the one doing the testing. This is what hacks like Ric Bucher, or Chris Palmer do -- and they're slumming at Bleacher Report now.

The only time that was really not true or far less of an issue, was Harden in third year. Again, when Ibaka was that fourth option.

Except our offense the year after Harden left was our best offense ever. Can you explain?

Forgive me for not runing though your entire post, im kind of tired of typing and for the most part i seem to be answering questions or issues i already did. And i'd rather not spend the rest of my boring Friday night typing long drawn out responses.

I understand. Tap dancing can be tiring.

[bondom34]

And FYI, this is how it always ends up.

Nah. It wont end until a year or so from now when we are arguing about something else and i have to point out that you were once again wrong in your hyperbole. Ive tried to suggest that you go with less strict stances and less disaster scenario's, but you seem to want to always go that direction.

No, because you always have to feel like the smartest person in the room, so no matter any evidence you keep running through the same circular argument over and over until everyone either gives up or realizes its not worth their time everyone here is pretty well realizing that. The same sort of debate every time people give evidence you say I don't care about the stats, I am right. People give more evidence and you say the same. Its really quite useless.

[slick_watts]

And FYI, this is how it always ends up.

Nah. It wont end until a year or so from now when we are arguing about something else and i have to point out that you were once again wrong in your hyperbole. Ive tried to suggest that you go with less strict stances and less disaster scenario's, but you seem to want to always go that direction.

No, because you always have to feel like the smartest person in the room, so no matter any evidence you keep running through the same circular argument over and over until everyone either gives up or realizes its not worth their time everyone here is pretty well realizing that. The same sort of debate every time people give evidence you say I don't care about the stats, I am right. People give more evidence and you say the same. Its really quite useless.

I don't have the time right now but I may debunk some of the claims he's made later.

[bondom34]

Nah. It wont end until a year or so from now when we are arguing about something else and i have to point out that you were once again wrong in your hyperbole. Ive tried to suggest that you go with less strict stances and less disaster scenario's, but you seem to want to always go that direction.

No, because you always have to feel like the smartest person in the room, so no matter any evidence you keep running through the same circular argument over and over until everyone either gives up or realizes its not worth their time everyone here is pretty well realizing that. The same sort of debate every time people give evidence you say I don't care about the stats, I am right. People give more evidence and you say the same. Its really quite useless.

I don't have the time right now but I may debunk some of the claims he's made later.

I just want to say one last thing...

[Soonerule]

On the subject of Kanter improving his defense:

...His fundamentals, instincts and positioning leave a lot to be desired. He can often be found standing straight up in the paint with his arms down, putting in little to no effort. He rarely boxes out his opponent and generally looks disinterested in anything that has to do with defense. He rarely bends his knees and often fails to get back in transition--doing very little to protect the paint when he does.

Who said it and when?

Oh oh oh,I know! Dx 2011.

LOL, DraftExpress President, Jonathan Givony in 2011. I would give you a gold star but you didn't give me one when I got the "who wants to be another Carmello Anthony?" question right when I answered Enes Kanter and I know you cheated! lol

I wonder if Givony has a superior knowledge and .... nah, it's not worth it.

Kanter has stated improving his defense as one of his goals in every end of season interview he has ever held and yet here we are 4 years later. I also like this Givony comment from the same analysis:

there's no question that man to man defense is an area that will be a major transition for him at the NBA level, something the coaching staff of the team that drafts him must be prepared for. It's tough to know how much of Kanter's lack of effort is a product of environment and how much is simply a personality trait. If it's personality based, that's more of a concern. Would a high motor player allow himself to be exposed in this manner?

Why yes, Mr. Givony, it is laughingly obvious now that he would.

But here is my favorite:

To his credit, we did see Kanter exerting far more effort in settings such as the Nike Hoop Summit and the NBA Combine. But was he simply willing to go full throttle in these instances because his livelihood depended on it? It's difficult to say, which is why not having a full season of film to evaluate really makes his projection on this end of the more more guess-work than anything.

Givony adds:

-According to NBA teams in his draft range, Kanter hasn’t helped himself with the way he’s choosing to educate them about his abilities. His preference appears to be to leave teams in the dark and force them to make a decision based on limited information, which has frustrated them quite a bit from what they’re saying in private conversations.

Kanter has not been consistent in the way he’s approached the draft process, sending mixed messages and changing strategies seemingly on a daily basis. He initially planned on not doing competitive workouts, refusing to leave his home base of Chicago to visit either the Utah Jazz (drafting 3rd) or Toronto Raptors (drafting 5th). As we’ve gotten closer to the draft, though, he’s adapted his plans, first electing to participate fully in the NBA Combine, then traveling to meet suitors and work out competitively.

So the kid has a history of excelling in small sample sizes, helps him pass the "eye test" and keep the experts guessing. Worked for him so far, #3 pick in the draft and now a big fact guaranteed contract and he hasn't done squat to earn it.

[Marcus50]

I think Presti is waiting till the last moment to match the offer because he gets morbid enjoyment from tormenting the fan base and reading the fan forum pages.

[bondom34]

Yet another guy who says no:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/chat/nba-chat-with-jesse-blancarte-71015/

[Pillendreher]

The Thunder may still match Portland's offer, but it is becoming apparent it was not the done deal we were led to believe.....

This. The longer it takes Presti to match, the more apparent it becomes that it's not set it stone that they'd keep him anyway.

[Old Man Game]

The Thunder may still match Portland's offer, but it is becoming apparent it was not the done deal we were led to believe.....

This. The longer it takes Presti to match, the more apparent it becomes that it's not set it stone that they'd keep him anyway.

I think they are matching but just waiting until the 71st hour to screw with Portland.

[Old Man Game]

Btw, this thread basically turned into that scene from Moneyball where Brad Pitt's character has Jonah Hill's character tick off on base percentage to those old scouts to their incredulity.

https://youtu.be/PX_c7W5RNJ8

[Podirk]

No, because you always have to feel like the smartest person in the room, so no matter any evidence you keep running through the same circular argument over and over until everyone either gives up or realizes its not worth their time everyone here is pretty well realizing that. The same sort of debate every time people give evidence you say I don't care about the stats, I am right. People give more evidence and you say the same. Its really quite useless.

I don't have the time right now but I may debunk some of the claims he's made later.

I just want to say one last thing...

Yikes...nice chart.

I'm kinda hoping Presti doesn't match now, though I do believe a (motivated) 23 year old should be able to improve. However that risk may be too high.

I also had a long standing arguement with a friend that Lamb would go before PJ...so if we don't match Kanter..we don't have to get under the apron...Pj,and thus my continuing priding of PJ over Lamb can continue.

[Thunderhead]

Yet another guy who says no:

http://www.basketballinsiders.com/chat/nba-chat-with-jesse-blancarte-71015/

He speaks to the tax bill, and it will be enormous .... but Thunder have a HUGE war chest. The bottom line has been plenty green for the past few seasons and they've managed it well. They can pay the tax bill out of past season's earnings.

And they are only going to be in the tax one year, until next year's cap rises. So the repeater penalties are not a factor.

And we're talking bout a player, who its not a sure thing will be a starter.

Frankly, as I said earlier in this thread, I'm not in love with Kanter. I think most of what he says publically is phony and his defense is atrocious, but 17 mill per year won't be a max contract after this year. With the new TV money, it will be like a present day 12 to 13 mill.

And yes, Presti is gonna wait to the last minute to match, IMO ..... I think that should be standard operating procedure for any GM in this situation .... it establishes precedent in the future for teams making offer sheets to RFA's , that they are gonna be tied down for the max amount of time.

[Marcus50]

Not sure how were not in the tax next 2 years with KD re signing even with the cap raise that is anticipated. By my Calc we remain a tax payer unless I can have KD taking less than the max or I drop more assets

[Marcus50]

Bondom34's chart sort of stuffs the argument that Serge will cover Kanters defensive problems

[bondom34]

Bondom34's chart sort of stuffs the argument that Serge will cover Kanters defensive problems

TBH, someone gave that to me, because I was of the belief Serge would help too.

[Podirk]

Bondom34's chart sort of stuffs the argument that Serge will cover Kanters defensive problems

TBH, someone gave that to me, because I was of the belief Serge would help too.

Still have to consider the entire rotation was jacked from injuries, but it may only smooth out a little...it's pretty drastic.

[bondom34]

Bondom34's chart sort of stuffs the argument that Serge will cover Kanters defensive problems

TBH, someone gave that to me, because I was of the belief Serge would help too.

Still have to consider the entire rotation was jacked from injuries, but it may only smooth out a little...it's pretty drastic.

And falls pretty much in line with everything his entire career has shown.

[Soonerule]

And we're talking bout a player, who its not a sure thing will be a starter.

Frankly, as I said earlier in this thread, I'm not in love with Kanter. I think most of what he says publically is phony and his defense is atrocious, but 17 mill per year won't be a max contract after this year. With the new TV money, it will be like a present day 12 to 13 mill.

And yes, Presti is gonna wait to the last minute to match, IMO ..... I think that should be standard operating procedure for any GM in this situation .... it establishes precedent in the future for teams making offer sheets to RFA's , that they are gonna be tied down for the max amount of time.

Personally, I don't care how much billionaire's spend on their hobbies and the cap rules and whatever limitations they pose don't sway my take on Kanter at all. Let the front office bean counters deal with all that. My sole interest regarding the dollars and cents of this situation is focused on how this max contract offer effects Kanter's motivation to improve his defensive skills.

Our friend Bravenewworld has brow beat us for weeks now about quoting what he has labeled meaningless defensive stats. He has told us that we need to get it through our heads that he doesn't care about stats while repeating 20 and 10 over and over and over and over... and over. He is correct when he says that it is disingenuous to cherry pick stats to make a point but conveniently forgets that is a knife that cuts both ways. At the end of the day, the ONLY stat that truly counts is the scoreboard and just as the scoreboard has 2 sides, so does an individual player's stat line, offense AND defense.

Assessing a player's offensive and defensive stats is not unlike a man that cannot swim trying to cross a deep river in a leaky rowboat. Can he paddle fast enough to cross the river before the boat sinks? Kanter's offense this season at OKC was like the man's paddle and ability to row, and he is one of the best at it. In an ideal situation he can paddle across that river in 30 minutes while the same journey would take a normal man 35. Unfortunately, this is not an ideal situation and Kanter's defense is like the very neglected row boat that fills up with water and sinks in 28 minutes. Bravenewworld only sees the man and his paddle and is betting he will cross the river with no problems, I see both the man and the boat and say he will drown like a rat.

Further:

Next season, KD and Serge will return to the lineup and Kanter's scoring opportunities will decrease as a result. As the #3 or #4 scoring option vs being the #2 option he will be attempting that treacherous river crossing with a smaller paddle in the same leaky rowboat. There is only one solution to the river dilemma and Kanter successfully crossing it, patch the boat and reduce the leaking.

The question is whether Kanter is willing to do it. There is absolutely nothing in his history that indicates he will and compelling evidence that says that he has no intention of trying and this max contract is his reward. Why should he improve now?

This Thunder team is going for a championship and to accomplish that every player will have to fully commit to improving their entire game. My primary concern is that Kanter and his max contract goes about the business of improving his defense like he always has and drags everyone else down to his effort level or creates an atmosphere of dissension that ultimately wrecks the season. When the dust settles, you lead by example and no matter how many 20 and 10 games he produces, the Thunder do not need a prissy prima donna like Kanter in their locker room.

It is actually kind of sad because Kanter does have a unique offensive skill set...But if he doesn't patch that rowboat, the tag, "He did what he always does. He got his stats. He didn’t defend. He took an L" will define his career.