Chuck Texas & PMOTT3's Early Off-Season Review -- Toronto Raptors

[lobosloboslobos]

I gave the Raps off season a B.

I like Carroll more than most and think he will increase our offensive efficiency with the sort of off the ball movement that we simply don't have. And although Lou was a human highlight reel at times there were many others where he was flat out terrible at both ends. I won't miss him.

imo the biggest factors that will come into play this season are Casey and Jonas.

Last year I concluded that our coach is a pigheaded, bumbling old fart without a lick of imagination or strategic ability. If he continues to be as pigheaded and strategically inept as he was before, we are doomed until Masai fires him. I fear we are doomed for a while.

The other factor is Jonas. I also happen to believe that he has been mismanaged in several key ways and Casey has utterly failed to capitalize on his huge offensive potential. If the team can finally make him a focal point (by using him on the pick and roll for one thing, where he has elite finishing ability) and build up his confidence in his shot again (he shot about as well as Demar from 15 feet out in his first couple years.) then Jonas could take us far.

But those are a couple of mighty big question marks. I would not say I feel confident about our prospects with Casey at the helm.

[Asif16]

Lou was 6th man of the year... How are you happy he's gone ?

Bad defense. Whole lot of chucking. Not ball movement (selfish play). Gonna continue to shoot even though he's having a bad shooting night. Overall just low IQ.

We clearly took a different direction this offseason. More than half our board wanted him gone lol

The Raptors RealGM board is thankfully a tiny minority of the fan base and most of the time are extremely clueless when it comes to basketball decisions. Ask any random on the TTC or walking downtown and you'll hear a much different take on Lou. A vast majority of the RealGM Raptors fan base wants to run every single Raptor out of time at one point or another, it's nothing new.

Besides, a lot of the negatives you pointed out about Lou directly fall on the coach. No ball movement, bad defense, terrible shot selection, if you're a competent coach you kill that as soon as you can, unfortunately Casey rewarded that while gluing guys like JV and James Johnson to the bench.

Umm yeah buddy sure we are clueless. Im sure our own diehard fans wont know about our own players.

You really think the random people on the TTC and walking downtown would know more about lou? You kidding? All their knowledge about Lou is based on the 6th man of the year award and drake songs. Everyone automatically thinks he's good because of those two reasons.

Casey is trash but to solely blame him on Lou's negatives would be the dumbest thing. Lou is who he is. No coach can change that. Lou needs the ball in order to be effective and to score. If he's not scoring, then he's a complete liability on the floor end of story.

[Dalek]

I think the hardest thing about the Toronto offseason is that it began with a rumor about us gong after LMA. When that failed it all felt like there was another big move to make which never happened. We apparently had interest in Wes Matthews in order to play a super small line-up with Lowry/Derozan/Matthews/Carroll/JV, but Dallas outbid us.

After that Masai just simply retooled on low-risk deals. Biyombo is a great defender but hurts your offense. He would have been good to pair with a scorer, but maybe Terrence Ross will adapt to that role. Scola is a decent defender for the purpose we will use him in, but his mid-range game is a bit wonky hurting our spacing.

Joseph and Carroll will be steady in their roles. Carroll will space the floor and defend and Joseph will run pick and rolls and defend some of the quicker PGs. I think they are both guys that fit into any system, as long as we move the ball better as a team.

I agree with JazzFan in that we lost a lot of bench scoring which did make up for our lackluster starters at times. I still think there is a deal for James Johnson and a prospect (Lucas Nogueira) to be had, but that might come mid season.

Overall we made moves for 2016. We maintained our picks and added a few. This is all very good for next free agency, which is when we will need to really spend and decide on Derozan's, JV's and Ross's contracts.

[Rhythm043]

Thanks for that amazing review man!! Means nothing as per usual but thanks!

[TDotsfinest97]

C+ seems low.

They had one of the 2-3 best trades of the offseason, got their main target, and added some interesting bench pieces. I think it was one of the better below radar off seasons.

I did state that i loved the Vasquez trade, thought they pulled off a Sam Hinkie-like heist in completing it. There were other reasons into me giving them a C+ though. I don't see an aging Scola and undersized C Biyombo making much of a difference. I think not retaining Lou is going to haunt them. The dude just won 6MOTY and was a productive scorer off the bench that had plenty of clutch moments for them last season. The overpays for Joseph and Carroll turned me off as well.

Lou was a liability during the playoffs, he can win some regular season games by himself but he won't do much against better defense in the playoffs. The scoring will most likely come from Ross who treated his ankle injury and maybe/hopefully also from our second round pick Norman Powell. Joseph and Caroll are overpays but you have to be willing to pay more when you want to address a need which was defense fo this offseason. The addition of Biyombo is also underrated, he is a good rim protector and sets a lot of good screens just like Amir Johnson. We'll see what he can do with more minutes.

[TDotsfinest97]

I'd give the Raptors offseason a solid B, this is a 43-50 win team.

[JShuttlesworth]

Im not worried about Lou not being here next year. We were solid on offense before he got here. He and GV played matador defense and were only able to contribute on the other end of the floor.

The Normal Powell heist looks great right now. We still don't have a starting caliber PF though.

B-

[Johnny Bball]

Pretty spot on OP.

We gained better defense with every new player. GV and Lou were mostly hidden on defense when possible. Amir will be sorely missed because he plays the game so hard and so smart. We do need to upgrade at PF. They do need to decide on JV after this year (only because they won't do it now). Derozan is going nowhere - some players you keep because of their character.

Joseph signing doesn't look so bad when you combine it with; trade GV for Powell and a first to clear cap space and sit and wait for SAS to renounce Joseph to sign LMA, and sign Joseph for what GV made. The bucks didn't see that coming or they would have signed Joseph I beleive, Ujiri did.

[Troubadour]

JazzfansRamblings: First off props to you guys for attempting this. It's a huge investment of time and energy. You get 30 teams done in 30 days and I'll eat my hat. (or a PB&J with very little P or J)

Secondly: I wonder if you guys are being nice for the sake of being nice. Reminds me a bit of the town of Greater Tuna where all the children are above average. I think Toronto is going to be quite a bit worse this year. The losses were pretty large by my eye. Williams gave them some needed scoring punch and that hasn't been replaced and it seemed to me that Amir was the glue of the team that kind of made things work. And I don't think that's been replaced either.

What were the replacements?

Demarre Carroll: Love the kid. Great story. But, he's a guy that other players make better, not the other way around. Without the players and system he was in at Atlanta he's going to look much more like the player he was in Utah than the player he was in Atlanta. I expect that contract is going to blow up in Toronto's collective face before long and fans will be clamoring for someone, anyone else to be the starting SF.

Cory Jospeph: I'm not even sure he will be 2nd string. That is I somewhat expect Delon to have taken over those duties by the all-star break. Then you have the leagues highest paid 3rd string PG. (I haven't checked that, but, certainly in the running)

And the other guys? Just bench fodder. If you are playing Scola or Biyombo significant minutes you are losing the war.

I don't see a 50 win team there. I see a team that will struggle mightly to score. I'd say closer to 40 wins and maybe not even that. Maybe a lotto team. I would imagine that Dwayne Casey's seat is going to be quite warm 20 games in if he makes it that long.

As great as Amir Johnson was two years ago, he just couldn't stay on the court. When he played like vintage Amir, he was the glue guy for a pretty great team. When he played like the guy who couldn't get more than 5 rebounds in 30+ minutes, which was fairly often, the team struggled.

I have no way of knowing how much of this is spin by the Raptors or honest reporting by the Toronto media, but the general consensus on Lou Williams is that he was a catalyst in changing the way the Raptors approached each game. Rather than sharing the ball and committing to defending, everyone was out for their own shot. It also didn't help that he and Greivis Vasquez were two of the worst defenders I have ever seen play 28+ minutes a night.

What's changed? Cory Joseph has replaced Greivis Vasquez and Terrence Ross will fill Lou Williams' role off the bench. The upgrade from Ross to Carroll in the starting line-up cannot be understated. Ross could not guard 3s and looked lost playing more than 30 minutes a night. He also had ankle surgery at the end of the season, so his new role and improved mobility should help him fill Lou's shoes.

Getting back to Cory Joseph, he's an unproven player who has excelled in a limited sample size. Having followed him fairly closely over the past five years, he's an excellent defender and finisher around the rim. The fact that he puts stopping his opponent above all else will be contagious in that second unit. He also has the ability to guard smaller 2s, which will mean Lowry can play off the ball on offence for stretches.

As for Scola and Biyombo, I think you're underestimating them quite a bit. Scola can still knock down midrange jumpers and rebound the ball. He's a smart player who can pass the ball and commits on the defensive end. Biyombo might end up being one of the steals of the summer. He's a shot-blocking / rebounding big who fills the biggest need for the Raptors off the bench.

Here's why I feel this season will be the best in Raptors history:
- DeRozan is in a contract year and is surrounded by players who mask his weaknesses
- The team had no issue whatsoever scoring last year. Losing Lou Williams does not drop you from 4th in the league in offence to bottom 5 or 10.
- The team has greatly improved on defence. It's night and day how much better this team is on that end (on paper).

That's my perspective at least.

[dalton749]

They've had a very good offseason imo, addressing most of their needs
In the starting lineup the biggest issue was spacing, then size and defense(including rebounding).
Amir Johnson and valanciunas both were inside guys, not shooters, making it difficult for Lowry and derozan to find lanes. Adding Patterson to the starting lineup naturally creates more passing opportunities, lanes, and room for valanciunas(one of the most efficient post players in the league) to work. There will be a little drop off in defence and rebounding at the 4 spot, but they will gain more size, defense, rebounding, and playmaking at the 3 switching carrol for Ross.
The biggest issue with the bench was Lou Williams toxic play style, resulting in a ts% drop from all guards, guard defence, a legit backup 5, and ball movement.
Lou Williams was a ball stopper, and played no defense, Vasquez got caught up in the chucking mentality and couldn't play defense either. Both were ineffective at putting pressure on the defense because they weren't capable of attacking the basket.
That's been replaced by delon wright who is an equal playmaker to Vasquez, but can score inside and play defense, and Cory Joseph who played in a ballmovement system, puts pressure on the defense to collapse, and plays defense.
Ross becomes an effective shooter off the bench, with scola, a much needed low post threat, and biyombo a defensive anchor.
They've also now have the flexibility of 3 point guards for when lowrys hurt, and James Johnson to play in certain match ups.
Much more versatility to play any style with nobody useless sitting on the bench

[2pat]

The Demarre Carroll addition might seem like a huge overpay, but with the way things are in today's NBA, it is hardly shocking. He can bring what Amir did-- heart, hustle, and leadership; but he also brings flexibility with a good 3pt shot, great off the ball movement (something the Raptors lacked last year), the ability to play both the 3 and 4, and great perimeter defense, the lack of which absolutely killed Toronto last year.

Cory Joseph might also seem like an overpay, but could end up being an absolute steal if he keeps developing. Coming from the Spurs, I see a lot more positives than I do negatives-- discipline, playing behind Parker and under Pops can't possibly be a net negative. He will likely get time at the 2 and allow for interesting lineups that don't involve ISO nonsense.

Biyombo seems like a steal. The guy is only 22 and can still easily develop into something more. We already know he play D and rebound. Great fit on a super cheap deal. If they need to go big, we may very well see him with Jonas on the floor.

Scola is a great locker room guy and veteran presence. Crafty, he brings another dimension to the lineup. Not an ideal signing, but it makes sense considering the price.

Amir has two bad ankles and could very well be out of the league in a few years due to injuries. Great guy, all heart, but it doesn't mean much when he's barely able to walk. The general consensus in Toronto was that he'd be welcome to stay, but on a cheaper contract than he was on before. The fact that Boston is going to be paying him 12m seems unbelievable and makes the Carroll signing seem like a bargain by comparison.

Vasquez was absolute trash. One of the slowest and least athletically inclined players in the league who seems to think extremely highly of himself. Average shooter and passer at best, one of the worst defenders at his position in the league. Good riddance. Best deal in the offseason, hands down. A #1 pick and Powell? Masai did it again.

Lou Williams was another positive subtraction. Brings one thing only-- ISO ball. Might look great at times, but was a net negative due to horrible defense and an inability to do anything other than shoot, most of which were horrible shots. Most raps fans are happy to see him go.

Jonas suffered a lot last year due to bonehead chucking. Instead of being able to pace and set himself, he'd be constantly running up and down the court, gassing badly thanks to the boneheaded plays of guys like Lou and Vasquez. Terrible environment for him to grow. Hopefully this changes this year, and hopefully with the firing of Casey.

Would still like to see Ross go. Disappointed that they didn't retain Hansbrough. Happy they didn't deal James Johnson. Delon Wright as first round pick isl a bit of a mystery, considering they brought in Cory Joseph.

Overall-- B-

[YogiStewart]

J

Cory Jospeph: I'm not even sure he will be 2nd string. That is I somewhat expect Delon to have taken over those duties by the all-star break. Then you have the leagues highest paid 3rd string PG. (I haven't checked that, but, certainly in the running)

they will go smallball quite a bit. plus there will be an effort to limit Lowry's minutes. plus i assume Lowry is gone within 15 months

[cdel00]

Well thought out and executed I give this review an A+,
The same as I have the Raps offseason.
Improved D, another first, and Popovich by osmosis.
all good as gold

[RoseBeforeHoes]

As a Raps fan reading this tread, it's clear to me that most non-raps fans are massively overrating Lou. "He won 6th man of the year though" That couldn't be more misleading. That award is basically a "who scores the most points off the bench" award. This guy is the biggest ball hog in the league, takes the dumbest shots, plays little D, and is too predictable to defend. The only reason he's in the league is because he's pretty good at ball hogging (i.e makes tough shots at a decent rate).

He killed our offense, all iso's all the time. And to PMOTT3, you contradicted yourself when saying you hated the Raptors not keeping lou but also hate the fact that Raps play so much iso ball. Well, which one is it? Were gonna see a lot less iso ball next season with Lou gone.

My prediction is Raps are a little better than last season and FINALLY get out the first round. I'll say they get the 4th seed and win the 4/5 matchup.

[Kabookalu]

I agree with them needing another scorer.

I'd be happy to do Nick Young for James Johnson

lol nah. We just got rid of lou. We dont need a taller version of him. Have fun with Kobe, Nick and Lou btw. Thats gonna be something to behold.

As far as scorers, Jamal Crawford is someone i like. Dont know if he's gonna be available though.

Lou was 6th man of the year... How are you happy he's gone ?

We went from 16th in the league in ast% to like last in the league, all because of Lou. The ball sticks in his hands and he promotes selfish ISO heavy ball that permeates through the rest of the roster. It's not just his style of play, but his very presence kills chemistry. I remember going to a game live and was impressed with how our starters communicated with each other; they looked cohesive. All of a sudden Lou comes in and all that disappears. Players are not moving and not talking. They're all just watching Lou hog the ball. And the funny thing is that they acted like they expected it. And I bet our players never challenged him because seeing his interviews and tweets, he seems like an alpha male personality. Doesn't help that our leader Kyle Lowry was buddy buddies with him, and DeRozan is everyone's friend.

The stats won't show or punish him though. He made difficult and timely shots that won us games. Though I'd be glad to get rid of him to see our ball moving ways that defined us in 13-14.

[Kenyon009]

Secondly: I wonder if you guys are being nice for the sake of being nice. Reminds me a bit of the town of Greater Tuna where all the children are above average. I think Toronto is going to be quite a bit worse this year. The losses were pretty large by my eye. Williams gave them some needed scoring punch and that hasn't been replaced and it seemed to me that Amir was the glue of the team that kind of made things work. And I don't think that's been replaced either.

Lou Williams changed the dynamics of the offense and defense completely. He single handedly (or Vasquez a bit) turned the Raptors offense into a stagnant iso-oriented pile of garbage that never used it's bigs. That is especially bad considering Amir Johnson and Valanciunas were great at finishing in the paint too or off hook shots. Defensively they got a lot better they got rid of the two biggest pylons on the team and replaced them with CoJo, Wright, Carroll, and a defensive anchor in Biyombo.

What were the replacements?

Demarre Carroll: Love the kid. Great story. But, he's a guy that other players make better, not the other way around. Without the players and system he was in at Atlanta he's going to look much more like the player he was in Utah than the player he was in Atlanta. I expect that contract is going to blow up in Toronto's collective face before long and fans will be clamoring for someone, anyone else to be the starting SF.

Ross was dead weight last year and he would play abyssal defense. Changing him out for Carroll is an automatic upgrade both defensively and offensively. Even rebounding wise it's an improvement, the only thing Ross has on him is shooting and even that is marginal. With Lou Williams and Vasquez gone I expect the passing to be much, much better. The only player I can see stopping the ball next year is Valanciunas and that's only if he ends up getting the ball.

Cory Jospeph: I'm not even sure he will be 2nd string. That is I somewhat expect Delon to have taken over those duties by the all-star break. Then you have the leagues highest paid 3rd string PG. (I haven't checked that, but, certainly in the running)

He will most definitely be second string. Delon is also 6'5 he could easily play the two as well with his size. I don't expect this to be a problem at all. CoJo will probably be improved next year as well, seeing how he improved each year in the league so far that shouldn't be too farfetched. Wright had good SL performances but he's a seasoned NCAA vet and should make an immediate impact but it's TBD.

And the other guys? Just bench fodder. If you are playing Scola or Biyombo significant minutes you are losing the war.

You are completely wrong here. Comparing Scola and Amir's minutes and production you'll see that Scola produced just as much as him in fewer minutes. While he scored a higher PER and lower DRtg as well. Biyombo is also a pretty good defensive anchor when Jefferson was out last season and he was starting the Hornets went on a significant winning streak. Biyombo is also 22 years old, that's younger than the rookie they drafted this year and the same age as Powell, he like CoJo has improved every year in the league too.

If Valanciunas brings back a good return, I could easily see Biyombo filling in for him with Bebe backing him up. He's a starting level player and he has great defensive numbers. I also wouldn't doubt him improving either seeing how he's getting out of a bad situation in Charlotte and his age.

I don't see a 50 win team there. I see a team that will struggle mightly to score. I'd say closer to 40 wins and maybe not even that. Maybe a lotto team. I would imagine that Dwayne Casey's seat is going to be quite warm 20 games in if he makes it that long.

No way they become a lotto team. The East is still very weak and the Raptors improved on all of their weaknesses. Valanciunas is one of the most efficient post up scorers in the league with a top 3 PPP off post ups. He will have no problem filling in for Lou Williams and while doing so having more ball movement and balanced attack.

[RyderMike]

I give it a B.

Losing Amir is hard because of the intangibles. He absolutely loved playing in Toronto and his work ethic is unmatched. Unfortunately, that's what led to his decline, was playing through every injury to the point where his ankles are shot now. I would have loved having him on the team in a reduced role, but $12 million was definitely more than I would pay him.

I don't mind the Cojo signing even though we drafted Delon (granted Cojo was definitely not a target when they drafted him as he was RFA then). The Raps like to run 2 PG lineups, so the three of them should all see solid minutes. And they have made mention of playing small ball and using Caroll at PF at times, so the double pg role is likely. Price is a little high though.

Carroll fills a need that unfortunately Terrance Ross could never seem to fill. His addition is worth it alone just based on his defensive impact. If T-Ross can develop and succeed in a 6-man type of game, it can help offset the loss of Lou, who along with Vasquez (one of my favourites along with Amir), who both were poor defensively.

Bismack and Scola were great value backup signing who should play a limited but effective role. Norman Powell is exceeding all of my expectations, and anything he provides is a bonus.

Overall, our offense has gotten worse, but our defense is much better. The one thing that worries me is leadership. We are a very young team (8 guys under 25, only 1 above 30), and lost Amir and Hayes, who I think were excellent veteran leaders). We did shed a lot of dead weight and high salaries - Hayes $5M, Fields, $8.5, Stiemsma $1 - which is good though, and makes the overpays of Cojo and Carroll easier to swallow as at least the money will be on the court not the bench.

PG - Lowry, Cojo, Delon vs Lowry, Vasquez

Offense may decrease in effectiveness slightly, but improvement in defense will make up for that. (on my completely arbitrary made up scale (Offense -0.33, Defense +0.75 = Net +.42)

SG - Derozan, Ross, Powell vs Derozan, Lou, Fields

Offense will suffer, depends on Ross to see how much it decreases, but Ross is a much better defender than Lou (Offense -0.5, Defense +0.5, Net 0)

SF - Caroll, James Johnson, Caboclo vs Ross, J.Johnson, Caboclo

Defense will greatly improve by benefit of Carroll, Ross is more versitile offensively, but did sruggle last year. Carroll is also a solid 3PT shooter (Offense -0.25, Defense +1, Net +.75)

PF - Patterson, Scola vs Amir, Patterson, Handsbrough, Hayes

Losing Amir is big. Scola and handsbrough are fairly even, but I loved Tyler's hustle. (Offense -.25, Defense -.5, Net -.75)

C - JV, Bismack, Bebe vs JV, Stiemsma, Bebe

We finally have a real backup C, even is Bismack is a little undersized. Last year Amir, Handsbrough, even 6'6 Chuck Hayes played a large amount of the C minutes. Bismack's defense will help ( Offense 0, Defense +0.25, Net +0.25)


Overall, I have them as a net +0.67 improvement, which is surprising since I initially did not like the offseason and thought we got worse.
Season depends on health of course and ball movement, which hopefully happens this year rather than Isos. I still see us being better than the Celtics, but the division win isn't as much of a guarantee this year. I sense about the same as last year 3/4 seed with 47-50 wins, but an improved playoff performance and 2nd round appearance. And hopefully the Knicks and Nuggets suck and we get a nice lotto pick.

[Mr Gametime]

B+ becauase of the Scola signing.

[Surfbali]

Good review guys. It's all subjective but I would say between B to B+.
It's difficult to retool completely ...doesn't matter if your Knicks or Lakers anymore...players want to play on good teams.

Toronto has to continue to show its a good team and gather assets and hope they either luck out with a Jimmy Butler like development in a Powell or Wright or Joseph or continue to take shots while building a winning culture. Masai seems to have done a good job collecting assets.

What I like best about this off season is we retooled defensively which was a huge need. It also means for Casey the team has to deliver or he is done. I like him as a man but have not been impressed by his coaching particularly how he handles assets like JV and JJ ...but perhaps there were complications fans like myself don't get. In any event he got what he asked for ...now he needs to deliver at least a top 4 finish and a playoff series win or he is done.

If they get off to a bad start...he gets fired early and TT comes in and really shows how to play defence. Hopefully the moves work I am cautiously optimistic we are looking at our first 50 win season


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[GreatWhiteStiff]

Losing Lou was an addition by subtraction. He did score but he chugged away and broke up the team chemistry and played zero D.

And our biggest need is a starting PF

Lou's plus minus was great, he couldn't help it if guys sucked when he was on the bench. But yeah everyone thinks he hurt chemistry. I guess he was hurting chemistry of the guys who were playing when he was on the bench somehow maybe?

By this respect Jonas was great for chemistry. When he sat the raptors would tend to go on runs.