OKC Thunder Offseason 2015

[bondom34]

FYI, Smitty from the trade board/CBA board is writing for the site now, just put his first article out:

http://basketball.realgm.com/analysis/238777/CBA-Encyclopedia-Contract-Options

[slick_watts]

Self contradiction yes? You do get that even low minute players who have only gotten 1500 minutes in 3 seasons, are still skilled, right?

Honestly, I dont feel the urge to repeat myself or state the obvious.
Look for my previous post highlighting his skill set and what he can bring to the table. I posted multiple replies highlighting some of these aspects.
Or....
Go to the front page and read the article about him, they highlight his skill base with OKC.
ESPN has a short article that does the same.
Look up a scouting report.

It would take you fewer words than this to name some of Perry Jones' skills. I'm not in a discussion with ESPN, or the article about him. It's with you. You compared him to Gerald Wallace. Name some of Perry Jones' skills, please. This is how conversation works.

.... Really?
Someone really needs to explain the negative aspect of a guard needing to watch himself dribble?
Ask any coach, how about that? Go to Coach Nicks youtube page and ask him why.
Ask any Jr. High player... how about that?
You clearly just want to argue for the sake of arguing. No matter what i say you'll just want to argue with it so.... go ask someone else who you would feel is more qualified then myself.

Dribbling with the head down doesn't seem to preclude success -- Drexler an example. Your theory = destroyed.

[KD35Brah]

I can't wait to see Donovan in action.

The anticipation is killing me.

[spearsy23]

Well that was predictable.

I have 90 years of basketball experience and have trained 5 championship coaches.

[Bravenewworld]

It would take you fewer words than this to name some of Perry Jones' skills. I'm not in a discussion with ESPN, or the article about him. It's with you. You compared him to Gerald Wallace. Name some of Perry Jones' skills, please. This is how conversation works.

Yah, it definitely would have.
Its the point of the matter though.
I grow rather tired of repeating myself over and over, especially when someone decides to ask me for an example of something i had just posted within the same 20 minute time span.

In terms of physicality:
Hes very athletic.
He has the double jump that we rarely see.
He is very quick for his size and has that quick first 1+2 step.
He is very long and knows how to use that length.

Skill set:
He can handle like a guard, not a great guard but far better than most players his size.
He has good vision and good passing. Which also indicates a good IQ and feel for the game.
He has great foot work.
For his size he has distance shooting. This is something that's hard to teach big men and its natural for him.
Can generally get to the rim at will. Not like RWB or Wade or anything but like Gwall or even a lesser AI2 w/Philly.
He knows his position and role on a team.
A very good defender, man to man and help and has a good eye for where the ball will go. He can defend at every position. The front page article about him and Lamb highlights the Miami game the year before last, and i had forgotten this, but he held Lebron to 1 for 11 when he was on him and Bosh to zero.

Its hard to really point where he will go in his development as his time has been so limited and really sporadic and inconsistent. But we do know the skills he came into the league with, what he has maintained when we have seen him play and what he has added or lost. And unlike Lamb, i have no problem giving this guy a pass due to his situation with us. Lamb we absolutely needed a SG, PJ3, we needed a 2ndary ....... i cant believe i did that... SF or tweener but you cant really develop one in that situation.

I think his time spent working with Westbrook, KD and Ibaka will really show with his offense on the Celtics. But i think the worst case for the Celtics is they have an A defender who should be able to average 10-12.

One thing i also want to highlight is this past season. When we had all those injuries he finally got the chance to really show us what he was made of........... of course that lasted for 5 games before he himself was injured but we did get a taste and that taste of what we could potentially expect from his as a starter was...

PTL - 3pts 3REB
LAC - 32pts 58% 7REB
DEN - 20pts 47% 4REB
NET - 16pts 50% 4REB
RAP - (injured) 4pts 50% 1REB

By the time he was done being injured, KD was back and well..... back to 3rd string.
He obviously had quite a few issues for those games, but it was nothing we could not chalk up to him simply being young and not playing many minutes. When we see a guy come in and do that, thats promising, you have a very good reason to develop him and expect something out of it.
Now, i think Donovan could be an ideal coach for him but OKC is still not a good situation for him to be in. That being said, Brad Stevens as someone who has spent so much time developing college players, should be able to bring out the best in PJ.

I see no reason for him to not develop for the Celtics. Barring injury he should be a good, high defense starting role player.
And this should really not surprise anyone. Of all our first round picks, BJ Mullins is the only one who has flunked out and not found a role in the NBA. As mentioned before i think Lamb will ultimately be on that list as well (maybe he will pull a Gerald Green though? Flunk out. Vanish for 6 years. Come back productive.). We clearly know how to draft talented players that can fit in the NBA and even if we are just looking at PJ3 and an absolute worst case scenario for him. From a defensive stand point, someone will give him 20mpg, at least. He shut down Lebron. Someone will give him a contract.

Dribbling with the head down doesn't seem to preclude success -- Drexler an example. Your theory = destroyed.

Im assuming you are talking about him putting his head down when he drove. That is the only thing i saw in the couple highlight videos i watched.

There is a big difference between being 20 feet from the basket then putting your head down to drive inside and needing to watch the ball as you dribble or you'll lose it.
Not needing to watch the ball as you dribble is a basic.... basic... i mean.... basic, fundamental.
If you're watching the ball as you dribble, then how can you be watching your defender, the basket or the other four players running sets? You cant. Watch Lamb's highlights and how often he would lose the ball when he was not watching it. That is something high schoolers going into the NCAA should be able to avoid.

I cant explain how bad it is to see an NBA player needing to do this. When i was in 6th grade? I think. When we did dribbling drills, coach would slip our hands with a ruler if we were watching them as we did it..... you learned very quickly to not get your hand slapped.
There is no excuse for an NBA player to need to do this.... none.
If youre 10 years old and you tell your dad you want to be a pro basketball player.
Step 1 - you go into the drive way and take some shots.
Step 2 - You sign up for a little league and on day 1 you spend the entire time running and dribbling the ball.
That's how basic it is. I have no idea how he got this passed everyone, but you can ask anyone on this site, ive been complaining for years about this because every single time he was in a game, i saw him do it and it boggles my mind that he got into the NBA with this massive issue.... its like a wrestler not knowing how to grapple at all.

[spearsy23]

I just learned that PJ is an all around player, but was just stuck behind superstars like Singler, Morrow and Collison.

[Andre Roberstan]

Dion has apparently dropped some weight and is in better shape.

http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder-thunder-guard-dion-waiters-thinks-okc-has-everything-it-needs-to-win-a-title-next-season/article/5433913/?page=2

I still beliiiiieeeeeevvveeeeee

[slick_watts]

In terms of physicality:
Hes very athletic.
He has the double jump that we rarely see.
He is very quick for his size and has that quick first 1+2 step.

Agreed. Perry Jones has impressive physical tools. I don't think anyone would be in disagreement over that.

He can handle like a guard, not a great guard but far better than most players his size.

Dubious. But acceptable. Jones can handle the ball better than most players his size. How useful that is? Up for debate.

He has good vision and good passing. Which also indicates a good IQ and feel for the game.

Disagree. This is where I think you start to get married to his college scouting report and disregard his experience as a pro. Perry Jones has AST% lower than 5% in his NBA minutes. In college, it was very low as well. Reminds me of Jeff Green. Passing was an advertised strength of Jeff Green but it never materialized in games. Same with Jones. This is what I call a 'highlights conclusion'. Making a determination about a player from watching highlights. In reality, his vision and passing hasn't produced results.

He has great foot work.

To what end? Posting up? Explain this.

For his size he has distance shooting. This is something that's hard to teach big men and its natural for him.

Jones is shooting < 30% from three in his NBA career and < 30% from three in his college career. He is also < 30% on shots from 16 to 23 feet. He certainly takes a lot of long distance shots. But I wouldn't call this a skill. Again, 'highlights conclusion'.

He's also < 70% FT shooter which is a strong indicator that he's not good at shooting.

Can generally get to the rim at will. Not like RWB or Wade or anything but like Gwall or even a lesser AI2 w/Philly.

Can you provide basis for this? I didn't see a lot of this in OKC.

He knows his position and role on a team.

Disagree. And this is the biggest problem with Jones. He's so terrible on the boards and so bad at shooting he can't be a stretch big. He's better playing as a wing or even a guard but then he gets blown by on defense -- does not possess lateral quickness to defend guards.

A very good defender, man to man and help and has a good eye for where the ball will go. He can defend at every position. The front page article about him and Lamb highlights the Miami game the year before last, and i had forgotten this, but he held Lebron to 1 for 11 when he was on him and Bosh to zero.

Jonathan Tjarks is, for reasons completely unknown, the biggest Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones fanboy in the universe. Again, drawing conclusions from a player's highlights is ridiculous. I don't go for highlights. Every player looks like a Hall of Famer if you look at their highlights (and we'll get to this below). Perry Jones can't defend bigs. He's weak, and he's one of the worst defensive rebounders for a player his size in NBA history. Also:



This is Jones' SportsVU tracking data. As you can see, opponents shot way better from everywhere when it was Jones defending / contesting the shot.

PTL - 3pts 3REB
LAC - 32pts 58% 7REB
DEN - 20pts 47% 4REB
NET - 16pts 50% 4REB
RAP - (injured) 4pts 50% 1REB

The only thing Jones did during this stretch is score. He did it well, but the way he scored was a mirage since he shoots so poorly from the areas he was making shots for his career. In the LAC games, for example, Jones the < 30% 3pt shooter shot 3-6 from 3pt range. Jones the < 70% FT shooter made 9-11 from the line.

There is a danger in only watching highlights and drawing conclusions from highlights.

I see no reason for him to not develop for the Celtics. Barring injury he should be a good, high defense starting role player.

What is the 'high defense' based on? What's with the absolutism? Can you really not see a reason why a player who's performed as mediocre as Jones won't develop for Boston? How about the fact that he hasn't consistently displayed any NBA-level skill that's led to results on the court? I'd say that's a good reason.

From a defensive stand point, someone will give him 20mpg, at least. He shut down Lebron. Someone will give him a contract.

More highlights nonsense.

Im assuming you are talking about him putting his head down when he drove. That is the only thing i saw in the couple highlight videos i watched.

Yes. Your argument = destroyed.

[CancerAssassin]

@slick_watts
I absolutely agree there isn't any consistent statistical measure to suggest that PJ3 will reach his ceiling. I wouldn't be surprised if PJ3 ended up in a DeMarre Carroll situation:
playing time + 3pt shot improved to adequate + favorable defensive system +"lebron-stopper" narrative = unfounded speculation that keeps him in the league for a while

[KD35Brah]

If anyone has a chance to break out, it's Lamb.

[spearsy23]

Dion has apparently dropped some weight and is in better shape.

http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder-thunder-guard-dion-waiters-thinks-okc-has-everything-it-needs-to-win-a-title-next-season/article/5433913/?page=2

I still beliiiiieeeeeevvveeeeee

Contract year. I think he's gonna be closer to JR Smith than Austin Rivers this year.

[slick_watts]

@slick_watts
I absolutely agree there isn't any consistent statistical measure to suggest that PJ3 will reach his ceiling. I wouldn't be surprised if PJ3 ended up in a DeMarre Carroll situation:
playing time + 3pt shot improved to adequate + favorable defensive system +"lebron-stopper" narrative = unfounded speculation that keeps him in the league for a while

If Perry Jones gets close to DeMarre Carroll level, I'd be shocked. Low chance of that happening. Carroll was good at defense at least when he was in Utah. Perry Jones' ceiling imo is something along the lines of Tim Thomas, but he has a long way to go as a shooter to get there. I don't think he'll ever be a plus defensive player like Carroll (or, Gerald Wallace).

[KD35Brah]

The list of players 23 or younger to average 18.5ppg on 56% FG and 11rpg are Kareem, Shaq, Howard,and Barkley.

Same numbers Kanter averaged in the 2nd half of the season here. Is this cherry picking gone to far or is this fair to compare?

They obviously weren't as bad defensively as Kanter either.

[slick_watts]

The list of players 23 or younger to average 18.5ppg on 56% FG and 11rpg are Kareem, Shaq, Howard,and Barkley.

Same numbers Kanter averaged in the 2nd half of the season here. Is this cherry picking gone to far or is this fair to compare?

They obviously weren't as bad defensively as Kanter either.

I think it's cherry picking as Kanter played < 1000 minutes and his full season numbers are quite different. If Kanter performs that well on offense going forward, great. It's a reach at this point to assume that, though, considering the small sample and difference in productivity from the other 4000+ minutes he's played in his career.

[Bravenewworld]

I just learned that PJ is an all around player, but was just stuck behind superstars like Singler, Morrow and Collison.

You're an idiot.

PM me warning, but i had to say it. I get tired of this guys bull.

[spearsy23]

I just learned that PJ is an all around player, but was just stuck behind superstars like Singler, Morrow and Collison.

You're an idiot.

PM me warning, but i had to say it. I get tired of this guys bull.

I think that's the highest compliment I could possibly get from someone who compares Dion Waiters to James Harden, and Perry Jones to Gerald Wallace. Your lack of consistency is laughable, your analysis simple, and your player evaluations couldn't be farther from reality. You have an irrational love for some guys, see Dion/PJ, and would use any excuse you could make up for them. PJ couldn't get playing time last year when KD was out and couldn't get playing time the year before when he was the only backup 3 on the roster. He's a piss poor shooter, a terrible rebounder, a bad defender, poor playmaker and can disappear for months at a time. He literally could not be farther from Gerald Wallace.

[Bravenewworld]

This is why my statement holds true. Because you cant read. You read part of something, fill in the blanks with your BS and then respond accordingly... for example:

I think that's the highest compliment I could possibly get from someone who compares Dion Waiters to James Harden

Did i once compare him to James Harden? No. I compared the role he would take to the a similar role as Harden on OKC. If you cant distinguish a difference, then dont talk basketball.... go to the Barbie forum and talk about Barbie dolls.... something you should be able to grasp the complexities of.

and Perry Jones to Gerald Wallace

Certain aspects of his game, yes, he is very similar to him.

Your lack of consistency is laughable, your analysis simple, and your player evaluations couldn't be farther from reality.

And yet they destroy anything you may suggest.... not that you actually attempt to do things like analyze players. You generally just complain when you think someone else has it wrong.

PJ couldn't get playing time last year when KD was out and couldn't get playing time the year before when he was the only backup 3 on the roster

Again, PJ was injured pretty much the entire time KD was out.
The second time KD was injured, Brooks had already created a new rotation and wanted to give the new players playing time and the franchise had seemingly given up on PJ, Lamb and Reggie was already gone.

The year before last he played 64 games (short time injured)and averaged over 12 mpg. Which is exactly what we would expect.... i guess that's not considered playing time though. Apparently he should have been splitting minutes with KD or... what exactly? We cant evaluate him?

He's a piss poor shooter, a terrible rebounder, a bad defender, poor playmaker and can disappear for months at a time. He literally could not be farther from Gerald Wallace.

You do realize that you really just described GWalls career right?
Of course the "bad defender" is simply wrong on your part and no one would suggest this except you. Even the "terrible rebounding" is something we saw in GWalls 3rd year with the same 12mpg.

Lets see though...... bad shooter... check. (PJ actually better than GWall)
High Defense.... check.

Disappear for months at a time... check. This had less to do with PJ and more to do with a set rotation t hat his development does not fit into. With GWall, he simply vanished time and time and time again.

Rebounding? Humm.... Lets see what GWall did with 12mpg....2.7 rebounds. First 30mpg season? 5RPG. Huh.. oh, he really didnt become an elite rebounder until year 9 and then it quickly dropped back down to the 6 or so we would expect. Which, is most likely exactly what PJ would be doing with 30mpg.

These are two very comparable players with very similar builds and skill sets. This is not to suggest that PJ is capable of the best years of GWalls career. Again, you don't seem to grasp that we are comparing skill sets that could potentially lead to similar production.

And this is why you got the response you did.
Because this is a constant from you. You seem to think that if someone mentions a player having a similar skill to another player, then we are also suggesting that player has the same scoring ability or defensive prowess.
If i was to say someone had a similar style jump shot to TMac, you'd respond as if i suggested that player was fully capable of everything TMac was as a shooter. Or better yet, if i say someone has a similar ability to GWall to get to the rim be it pretty or ugly, you take that as me suggesting hes a 20-10 as SF.

Even worse, you seem to have a brick wall in between your brain and information as we continue to have these conversations. I have to continue to correct you when you often misread something and then watch as you come up with some bogus excuse as to why your inaccurate statement is still acceptable. And its really just with me, i see people do this on these forums all the time and you don't make your little smart ass comments to them or attempt to intentionally ignore what is being said.
So.... how about you stop being a POS? If you don't like my evaluations, fine. But don't respond with BS when its you misunderstanding what is being said.

[bondom34]

To be fair, the comparison originally made was PJ to "GWall in his heyday" which implies peak Wallace. PJ isn't near that in any way shape or form. He was better at every single thing than PJ, PJ is an athlete who happens to play basketball, really not much more sad to say. As well, you compared Waiters to Harden saying if you consider one's second year bad, you have to consider the other bad. Stats:
http://bkref.com/tiny/VuZM2

Post:
viewtopic.php?f=334&t=1382176&start=60#p43880781

The stats aren't really close. So that was sorta the point.

[bondom34]

Also to add, just found PJ's nbadraft.net profile:

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/perry-jones

Weaknesses: Despite a high ceiling, Jones doesn't have a go-to part of his game that can be a reliable weapon night in and night out... Frustratingly inconsistent, and can disappear throughout stretches of a game ... Skinny frame, not comfortable or strong enough defending the low post... Struggles to create easy shots for himself ... Only attempted 3 foul shots a game... Sub-par three-point shooter through two years at the college level... Lacks a true position ... Poor rebounding numbers reflect how easily he gets pushed around under the boards... Hasn't yet figured out just when and how to take advantage of his physical tools and skill-set ... Only .6 blocks per game with his size and quickness shows he lacks defensive awareness ... Toughness has been questioned...

None of the bold sound at all like Wallace in his prime.

[slick_watts]

Certain aspects of his game, yes, he is very similar to him.

Which?

And yet they destroy anything you may suggest.... not that you actually attempt to do things like analyze players. You generally just complain when you think someone else has it wrong.

I've provided plenty of data and scouting oriented analysis above on this topic that you are conveniently ignoring.

Of course the "bad defender" is simply wrong on your part and no one would suggest this except you.

Again, I provided data-backed critique above on Perry Jones' defense. Awaiting response. In case you missed it, here's Perry Jones' SportsVU shot contesting data:



Opponents shoot better from everywhere when Jones is contesting. Curious...

In the interest of full disclosure, Jones was far superior at shot contesting in 2013-14:



At best I'd call the data inconclusive. Although it is worth nothing that DRPM, DBPM, DRAPM all have Jones as a negative defensively in 2013-14. I would say he can be a good defensive player in very specific matchups. LeBron? Probably right up his alley. But the Suns torched us last year in the backcourt when Perry Jones was starting at SG. Gerald Wallace, in his prime, was a true defend-sll-positions player. Jones lacks the lateral quickness. More like Jeff Green on defense than Gerald Wallace.

Even the "terrible rebounding" is something we saw in GWalls 3rd year with the same 12mpg.

Jones and Wallace first three seasons. Note Wallace's advantage on TRB%. Perry Jones one of few players to have < 10% TRB for a player of his height. Sorry, not comparable.

Lets see though...... bad shooter... check. (PJ actually better than GWall)

Better? By what measurement? They are similar. Not a feather in the cap for Perry Jones. Wallace actually was proficient from mid-range at Perry Jones' age. More proficient than Jones at any rate, who is < 30% FG from 16-23 feet.

High Defense.... check.

See above. Please explain the 'High Defense'. Also, for refence, 31 year old, can barely move Gerald Wallace SportsVU tracking from 2013-14 in Boston:



Bad. But still better than Perry Jones. I suppose if you're trying to compare Perry Jones to current Gerald Wallace, you may have a point, though. Just a little more work to do.

This had less to do with PJ and more to do with a set rotation t hat his development does not fit into.

Source please.

Rebounding? Humm.... Lets see what GWall did with 12mpg....2.7 rebounds. First 30mpg season? 5RPG. Huh.. oh, he really didnt become an elite rebounder until year 9 and then it quickly dropped back down to the 6 or so we would expect. Which, is most likely exactly what PJ would be doing with 30mpg.

Addressed this above, without the generous cherry-picking. Wallace was superior, even though he was shorter. Perry Jones historically poor for a player his size: http://bkref.com/tiny/ghR0D

That's a list for cumulative TRB% for players Perry Jones' list height or taller, who played more than 1000 minutes in their first three seasons. Perry Jones is 7th worst. He's better than Danilo Gallinari, I guess. Small victories. Note that if Wallace's height qualified him for this list, he would be about 65th.

I guess you can control for Wallace's list height instead: http://bkref.com/tiny/qiW1a

Perry Jones is only 110th worst on this list. Small victories. You'll be looking awhile if you want to find Wallace, though -- he's 384th worst on this list. I think at that point, you're not that bad.

These are two very comparable players with very similar builds and skill sets.

I think the only thing we've established is that they are both athletic, can sort of dribble, and neither could shoot. Which describes thousands of failed NBA prospects.

This is not to suggest that PJ is capable of the best years of GWalls career. Again, you don't seem to grasp that we are comparing skill sets that could potentially lead to similar production.

Nice hedge. You seemed fairly sure of yourself earlier. I don't blame you, though, in the face of the evidence presented.

Because this is a constant from you. You seem to think that if someone mentions a player having a similar skill to another player, then we are also suggesting that player has the same scoring ability or defensive prowess.

Seems like you are denouncing the utility of your own brand of analysis here. Self-awareness is a good trait.