30 Point Threshold - Noah Vonleh Thread

[HornetJail]

If SAC had a do-over, they absolutely pick Vonleh over Stauskas. Cousins/Vonleh was the perfect combination if both panned out. I think if Vonleh was in 2015, they take Vonleh over Stein and don't look back. Remember, we were all shocked that Vonleh even fell to us last year in the first place- he was a consensus top 5 pick. I don't even think we had a thread for him here until he was drafted.

[BeesWax]

For example Dekker picked at 18 this year had projected RPM of 4.5. That would have been 8 or 9 last year. Hollis Jefferson picked in 20's would've been 2014 Lotto

All depends on where you look. Vonleh had a nylon calculus EWP that was 4th highest in the last two drafts combined. When freshman Vonleh played junior Frank there was one stalemate and one where Noah won. All these projections are slanted slightly in the way whoever came up with them favors. I would say Noah ends up right where he was if not higher in this draft.

Without fear of his running being a long term problems Turner would have gone much higher in this draft. Noah was a better shooter in college than Turner was and had no issues with his health coming in. I think Noah goes 5 in this years draft because he is a better fit next to Cousins than WCS and fills their need at the 4.

[Mystical Apples]

If SAC had a do-over, they absolutely pick Vonleh over Stauskas. Cousins/Vonleh was the perfect combination if both panned out. I think if Vonleh was in 2015, they take Vonleh over Stein and don't look back. Remember, we were all shocked that Vonleh even fell to us last year in the first place- he was a consensus top 5 pick. I don't even think we had a thread for him here until he was drafted.

No WCS is a good fit there. Noah dropped - and everyone was shocked about it- because fans didn't account for his alarmingly low feel for the game. But predraft it was telegraphed he'd go that low or even later in Lotto. He didn't "drop"

I was surprised about the Stauskas pick but not because he went over Vonleh.

[Mystical Apples]

For example Dekker picked at 18 this year had projected RPM of 4.5. That would have been 8 or 9 last year. Hollis Jefferson picked in 20's would've been 2014 Lotto

All depends on where you look. Vonleh had a nylon calculus EWP that was 4th highest in the last two drafts combined. When freshman Vonleh played junior Frank there was one stalemate and one where Noah won. All these projections are slanted slightly in the way whoever came up with them favors. I would say Noah ends up right where he was if not higher in this draft.

Without fear of his running being a long term problems Turner would have gone much higher in this draft. Noah was a better shooter in college than Turner was and had no issues with his health coming in. I think Noah goes 5 in this years draft because he is a better fit next to Cousins than WCS and fills their need at the 4.

I saw Noah live in probably what was his best collegiate game. Physically he looked great. That has never been his issue although the upside has always been exaggerated. And no, he's not getting drafting 5th in this draft. Noah was drafted after guys who wouldn't have cracked this year's lotto.

[Mystical Apples]

No one with a modicum of objectivity thinks Vonleh drops behind smart and stauskas at 7-8, but then leaps Mudiay and Johnson at 7-8.

[BeesWax]

No one with a modicum of objectivity thinks Vonleh drops behind smart and stauskas at 7-8, but then leaps Mudiay and Johnson at 7-8.

None with any objectivity thinks Noah would fall behind Frank either. The fact that you are trying to use his missuse by our idiot coach last year as a way to justify your thought says enough. Noah was a 19 year old who was better head to head than the guy we picked this year. You also love to ignore fit. WCS should not have gone ahead of either of those guys but did because they went big. Noah would have been ahead of WCS on the big projection chart and would have been picked before him.

[Mystical Apples]

No one with a modicum of objectivity thinks Vonleh drops behind smart and stauskas at 7-8, but then leaps Mudiay and Johnson at 7-8.

None with any objectivity thinks Noah would fall behind Frank either. The fact that you are trying to use his missuse by our idiot coach last year as a way to justify your thought says enough. Noah was a 19 year old who was better head to head than the guy we picked this year. You also love to ignore fit. WCS should not have gone ahead of either of those guys but did because they went big. Noah would have been ahead of WCS on the big projection chart and would have been picked before him.

I haven't once mentioned the Vonleh/Clifford Dynamics. If people think he was misused fine, but almost all rookies are bad regardless of how they are used. It has no bearing how I view Vonleh's potential

On the tangent of Sacramento I was surprised WCS went that high but only because of the medical concerns. If their doctors were fine with it then it's a good spot for him for a few reasons, but not the obvious one.

[Mystical Apples]

Regarding Vonleh going top 9 this year. First, using Vashro's modeling is a solid rationale. It's a reputable model and Vonleh came out favorably. But like all models there are wild variances and Noah was also projected closer to 20 elsewhere. Totally normal for example Frank was as high 3 and down to 18 but his composite was 7-9 in this draft. In other drafts he would have been 4-7

Vashro personally would also say (because he has) his model is harsh on seniors but Frank didn't fit into his model. He was a unique outlier in regression modeling

[BlackOutBuzz]

There are just way too many variables to consider. IMO the transitive property doesn't apply from pick to pick, let alone year to year. So you can't say: "he went behind Player A last year, this year's Player B is better than A, therefore no way he goes before Player B."

Taking Vonleh at 9 is one GMs opinion one year, and obviously by the next he had a different opinion. I'd easily have taken him over Smart, Gordon, and Stauskas - and I wasn't big on Exum or Randle either. Likewise over WCS and Johnson, but not Winslow. It's an imperfect science with 30 different teams each dealing with a bunch of different opinions and egos.

There are no constants, but Vonleh was projected ahead of Porzingis and WCS before they opted out of the last draft. Now, they showed improvement and justified staying another year, but who's to say Vonleh wouldn't have improved as well?

[Mystical Apples]

Last note on Kaminsky that made it impossible to project with regression models. First, his projected NBA impact went up dramatically as he aged, not down. He was unique. Other upperclassman have a more linear negative slope as they go Fr - Sr.

Also, and this is more subjective, is that by definition regression models project players based on the past. This assumes what the NBA valued in 2010 will be the same in 2018. We know that's not the case.

[stinger14]

No one with a modicum of objectivity thinks Vonleh drops behind smart and stauskas at 7-8, but then leaps Mudiay and Johnson at 7-8.

None with any objectivity thinks Noah would fall behind Frank either. The fact that you are trying to use his missuse by our idiot coach last year as a way to justify your thought says enough. Noah was a 19 year old who was better head to head than the guy we picked this year. You also love to ignore fit. WCS should not have gone ahead of either of those guys but did because they went big. Noah would have been ahead of WCS on the big projection chart and would have been picked before him.

I haven't once mentioned the Vonleh/Clifford Dynamics. If people think he was misused fine, but almost all rookies are bad regardless of how they are used. It has no bearing how I view Vonleh's potential

On the tangent of Sacramento I was surprised WCS went that high but only because of the medical concerns. If their doctors were fine with it then it's a good spot for him for a few reasons, but not the obvious one.

You did not mention the Cliff/Vonleh misuse, but it was real. Our idiot coaching staff went on record saying they were working on Vonleh's back to the basket post game. They should have been fired as soon as that statement was made.

Vonleh, a top recruit in high school as a PG who grew tremendously his senior year. A player with handles and vision of a PG. A player with the shooting ability and athletic ability as a wing player. A player with size ,strength, and athletic ability to defend any style PF. A player who is a good defender, good rim protector, and a very good rebounder at both ends of the floor. A ultimate stretch 4 and our idiot coaches say his future is in the post with his back to the basket?

[Mystical Apples]

There are just way too many variables to consider. IMO the transitive property doesn't apply from pick to pick, let alone year to year. So you can't say: "he went behind Player A last year, this year's Player B is better than A, therefore no way he goes before Player B."

Taking Vonleh at 9 is one GMs opinion one year, and obviously by the next he had a different opinion. I'd easily have taken him over Smart, Gordon, and Stauskas - and I wasn't big on Exum or Randle either. Likewise over WCS and Johnson, but not Winslow. It's an imperfect science with 30 different teams each dealing with a bunch of different opinions and egos.

There are no constants, but Vonleh was projected ahead of Porzingis and WCS before they opted out of the last draft. Now, they showed improvement and justified staying another year, but who's to say Vonleh wouldn't have improved as well?

These are all fair points. But what we know is that after all due diligence and the actual draft Vonleh was picked 9th in a less deep draft. Projections for WCS and Porzingas happened before the process unfolded (workouts, interviews etc..) a process that had them taken in the top 6 in a deeper draft

BTW not high on Randle either

[BlackOutBuzz]

There are just way too many variables to consider. IMO the transitive property doesn't apply from pick to pick, let alone year to year. So you can't say: "he went behind Player A last year, this year's Player B is better than A, therefore no way he goes before Player B."

Taking Vonleh at 9 is one GMs opinion one year, and obviously by the next he had a different opinion. I'd easily have taken him over Smart, Gordon, and Stauskas - and I wasn't big on Exum or Randle either. Likewise over WCS and Johnson, but not Winslow. It's an imperfect science with 30 different teams each dealing with a bunch of different opinions and egos.

There are no constants, but Vonleh was projected ahead of Porzingis and WCS before they opted out of the last draft. Now, they showed improvement and justified staying another year, but who's to say Vonleh wouldn't have improved as well?

These are all fair points. But what we know is that after all due diligence and the actual draft Vonleh was picked 9th in a less deep draft. Projections for WCS and Porzingas happened before the process unfolded (workouts, interviews etc..) a process that had them taken in the top 6 in a deeper draft

BTW not high on Randle either

I still think 2014 had more top end talent (not by much though), but 2015 was definitely deeper.

Frankly (npi) I hope those downplaying Vonleh's potential are right. He has greater potential IMO than both Zeller and Frank, but it's also possible he never becomes as good as they are now. We'll see.

[Mystical Apples]

None with any objectivity thinks Noah would fall behind Frank either. The fact that you are trying to use his missuse by our idiot coach last year as a way to justify your thought says enough. Noah was a 19 year old who was better head to head than the guy we picked this year. You also love to ignore fit. WCS should not have gone ahead of either of those guys but did because they went big. Noah would have been ahead of WCS on the big projection chart and would have been picked before him.

I haven't once mentioned the Vonleh/Clifford Dynamics. If people think he was misused fine, but almost all rookies are bad regardless of how they are used. It has no bearing how I view Vonleh's potential

On the tangent of Sacramento I was surprised WCS went that high but only because of the medical concerns. If their doctors were fine with it then it's a good spot for him for a few reasons, but not the obvious one.

Vonleh, a top recruit in high school as a PG who grew tremendously his senior year. A player with handles and vision of a PG. A player with the shooting ability and athletic ability as a wing player. A player with size ,strength, and athletic ability to defend any style PF. A player who is a good defender

It seems like you're annexing Kaminsky's bio and giving it to Noah. Noah is a below average passer. Noah has the measurables to be a good defender but he's awful now and lots has to do with his instincts.

[stinger14]

I haven't once mentioned the Vonleh/Clifford Dynamics. If people think he was misused fine, but almost all rookies are bad regardless of how they are used. It has no bearing how I view Vonleh's potential

On the tangent of Sacramento I was surprised WCS went that high but only because of the medical concerns. If their doctors were fine with it then it's a good spot for him for a few reasons, but not the obvious one.

Vonleh, a top recruit in high school as a PG who grew tremendously his senior year. A player with handles and vision of a PG. A player with the shooting ability and athletic ability as a wing player. A player with size ,strength, and athletic ability to defend any style PF. A player who is a good defender

It seems like you're annexing Kaminsky's bio and giving it to Noah. Noah is a below average passer. Noah has the measurables to be a good defender but he's awful now and lots has to do with his instincts.

Trust me, I do not confuse the two of them. Time will tell about what Vonleh becomes, but I have a lot more faith in his skills than I do Frank. Trust me, as a Hornets fan I want to be wrong and Frank become a great player with multiple all star appearances, but he is nowhere close to that right now

[Mystical Apples]

Vonleh, a top recruit in high school as a PG who grew tremendously his senior year. A player with handles and vision of a PG. A player with the shooting ability and athletic ability as a wing player. A player with size ,strength, and athletic ability to defend any style PF. A player who is a good defender

It seems like you're annexing Kaminsky's bio and giving it to Noah. Noah is a below average passer. Noah has the measurables to be a good defender but he's awful now and lots has to do with his instincts.

Trust me, I do not confuse the two of them. Time will tell about what Vonleh becomes, but I have a lot more faith in his skills than I do Frank. Trust me, as a Hornets fan I want to be wrong and Frank become a great player with multiple all star appearances, but he is nowhere close to that right now

Ok - made comment cause Kaminsky started HS as a 6'2" PG and in his SO year he was still 6'5" Even his senior year he was still listed at 6'10" and hadn't stopped growing. His ball skills for a 7 footer are nearly unprecedented.

[MKGsMotor]

It seems like you're annexing Kaminsky's bio and giving it to Noah. Noah is a below average passer. Noah has the measurables to be a good defender but he's awful now and lots has to do with his instincts.

Trust me, I do not confuse the two of them. Time will tell about what Vonleh becomes, but I have a lot more faith in his skills than I do Frank. Trust me, as a Hornets fan I want to be wrong and Frank become a great player with multiple all star appearances, but he is nowhere close to that right now

Ok - made comment cause Kaminsky started HS as a 6'2" PG and in his SO year he was still 6'5" Even his senior year he was still listed at 6'10" and hadn't stopped growing. His ball skills for a 7 footer are nearly unprecedented.

Kaminsky was also not sought after at all out of highschool and wasn't worth a **** until his junior year at Wisconsin. Vonleh was a top recruit in highschool so that beginning part of his statement already makes it not kamisky's bio. Kaminsky is a career overachiever who I think wont be able to do that among the grown men of the NBA

[Mystical Apples]

Trust me, I do not confuse the two of them. Time will tell about what Vonleh becomes, but I have a lot more faith in his skills than I do Frank. Trust me, as a Hornets fan I want to be wrong and Frank become a great player with multiple all star appearances, but he is nowhere close to that right now

Ok - made comment cause Kaminsky started HS as a 6'2" PG and in his SO year he was still 6'5" Even his senior year he was still listed at 6'10" and hadn't stopped growing. His ball skills for a 7 footer are nearly unprecedented.

Kaminsky was also not sought after at all out of highschool and wasn't worth a **** until his junior year at Wisconsin. Vonleh was a top recruit in highschool so that beginning part of his statement already makes it not kamisky's bio. Kaminsky is a career overachiever who I think wont be able to do that among the grown men of the NBA

God this is silly. My response was to the claim Vonleh had a late growth spurt in HS and that explained his PG skills. That's Frank not Noah. This is all totally verifiable btw. Noah measured 6'8" in 2011 (shoes) and 6'9" in 2013 (shoes). 1" over 2 years isn't much for a HS kid that size.

At Indiana 29% of Vonleh's scoring was from post-ups, second highest rate for PF in the country. But he also struggled with ball movement, passing, and turnovers and barely averaged over 1 jump shot/game. These revisionist tales of Vonleh as a dynamic wing are factually incorrect.

[BeesWax]

Ok - made comment cause Kaminsky started HS as a 6'2" PG and in his SO year he was still 6'5" Even his senior year he was still listed at 6'10" and hadn't stopped growing. His ball skills for a 7 footer are nearly unprecedented.

Kaminsky was also not sought after at all out of highschool and wasn't worth a **** until his junior year at Wisconsin. Vonleh was a top recruit in highschool so that beginning part of his statement already makes it not kamisky's bio. Kaminsky is a career overachiever who I think wont be able to do that among the grown men of the NBA

God this is silly. My response was to the claim Vonleh had a late growth spurt in HS and that explained his PG skills. That's Frank not Noah. This is all totally verifiable btw. Noah measured 6'8" in 2011 (shoes) and 6'9" in 2013 (shoes). 1" over 2 years isn't much for a HS kid that size.

At Indiana 29% of Vonleh's scoring was from post-ups, second highest rate for PF in the country. But he also struggled with ball movement, passing, and turnovers and barely averaged over 1 jump shot/game. These revisionist tales of Vonleh as a dynamic wing are factually incorrect.

Early in his career he was regarded as a wing player. There was a question on where he would finish up until he broadened out and was obviously an athletic PF. At Indiana he replaced Cody as the center on that team so his post up rate should be compared to those guys. He played most games without a real big to help him at all. Sheehey, Ferrell, Gordon, Williams and Etherington were the other guys who started the most that year. None of those guys are bigger than 6'7" so he had to be the post guy but still shot 48.5% from three on more than an attempt a game.

[Hornet Mania]

I agree with Blackout that the top end of 2014's draft class compares favorably to the upper tier in 2015, or at least their hype was comparable if not greater from what I remember. Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Exum/Gordon/Randle/Vonleh were the ones specifically who really got hyped and I feel would have also gone very high in this year's draft as well.

But I see what you're saying Mystical Apples, and I don't disagree, that 2015 is definitely far deeper. 2014, to me, seemed like a solid top 7 plus a few intriguing guys (Payton, Saric) and then a giant cliff. 2015 seemed like it had about five "star" prospects, and then a huge middle class that went well into the teens.

I just think, considering his hype at that time, Vonleh would have been projected around the same area as WCS/Johnson/Winslow/Hezonja. He certainly had much more hype than Turner, and while 2015 may be superior to 2014 overall I don't think the aforementioned group of players are valued significantly higher (if at all) in comparison to Randle/Exum/Smart/Gordon in their draft cycle. It's all academic anyway, at this point they're all in the league and their talent will show itself or not one way or another.

For the record I do think we would have chosen Frank over Vonleh if both were available this year. Not because Vonleh would be ranked below Frank (Winslow was also ranked significantly higher than Frank by nearly every team except us apparently) but because we have made a dramatic shift towards a win-now philosophy that was not so rigid last year. If both Frank and Vonleh were available in 2014 I'm about 90% sure we go Vonleh. Just goes to show how much a team's needs (or priorities) can change in just 12 months.