PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: OKC Thunder

[Texas Chuck]

PMOTT3's Review

Key losses:

N/A

Losses:

PJIII
Jeremy Lamb

Draft:

Cameron Payne

Loved the decision to go with Payne here. Felt like his range was #11-#15. Gives OKC a solid PG prospect to develop while still having a good back up in DJ Augustine.

Trades:

Lamb for Ridinour and 16' 2nd
PJIII and 19' 2nd for TPE

They basically just cut costs here and created roster spots. I felt like they sold a little low on Lamb though.I wanted to see if he would get some burn under Donovan this season but now he probably will under Clifford.

Free Agency:

Enes Kanter

I don't love that they matched the max offer given to Kanter by POR but they were in a position where they had to. When you have a top-3 player in the league who is set to be a FA next season where literally every team will be breathing down his neck trying to convince him to sign with them (looking at you Washington) then showing him you are all in to win a title is a MUST. It would have looked incredibly stupid on OKC's part had they let him walk.

Current Depth Chart: (rough version)

PG: WB/Augustine/Payne
SG: Morrow/Waiters
SF: KD/Singler/Roberson
PF: Ibaka/McGary/Novak
C: Kanter/Adams/Collison

Needs:

I haven't seen enough games of them together to reach a conclusion on how I feel about the Ibaka/Kanter experiment but if it doesn't look good mid season then im looking for a new center or starting Adams. I also feel they need a true SG/3-D SG. I would be extremely upset if it happens but if im Presti then im making a call to ATL for Kyle Korver's services and seeing what his asking price is. I also am a bit of a Debbie downer on Waiters so if he even shows slight flashes of being good then im trading him while i still can for hopefully some good value. Other than a real SG and perhaps a better center if Ibaka/Kanter can't co-exist I dont see any real glaring needs. Maybe a better defensive wing? Their biggest need of all is health though. They have two top 5 players in the league on their roster so if they can stay healthy i expect a top 3 seed at the very least.

Added Thoughts:

Mentioned it before to bondom but the only thing that I really really didn't like about OKC's off-season was firing Brooks in KD's contract year. Its way too risky and felt like a move they should have decided on 2-3 years ago. Im okay with the Kanter max because the orginazation is showing that they are now willing to pay to win. If everyone can stay healthy this team should finish with a top 3 seed imo.

Win/Loss Prediction: 59-23

Overall Grade: B-

I don't really know if Kanter is going to fit next to Ibaka yet but they were in no position to not match the max. I feel like they gave Singler too many years on his new deal but at least it will be really cheap. And I would have liked to see Lamb get more minutes under Donovan rather than be traded for just a 2nd. A lot of this is just nitpicking and minor stuff though, overall they had a good off-season with the exception of giving Brooks the boot (surprised he doesn't have a job yet btw).

Chuck Texas' Review:

Losses:

essentially nothing. Lamb and PJIII were teh biggest which tells you all you need to know.

Draft:

Cameron Payne

this was a guy linked to them for a long time and I think he was the BPA. I loved this pick for them. Augustin is a decent back-up for a year for Westbrook, but Payne gives them a guy with the potential to be more than that. I think ultimately Payne can be what Reggie Jackson was supposed to be. Having Payne on a rookie deal instead of the $12M or so they were rumored to have offered Jackson is a huge win especially considering their current cap situation.

Trades:

Couple salary dump moves:

Lamb for Rid (but also smartly got a TPE later for Ridnour just in case)
Jones cost them cash and a 2nd to dump.

Ideally they find a taker for Novak and possibly Waiters if their other options prove they can hold down the SG.

Free Agency:

Kanter -- too much money, but overpaying him is far better than losing him imo. I know he's a divisive player with his defensive woes, but I'd still have hope you can get something positive out of him. Ibaka and Durant playing alongside him I think will really help with that. I know people point to the 10 games he played with Ibaka and point out how bad that was defensively, but I just don't think you can reach any conclusions considering how little Kanter knew of the system plus all the constant lineup shuffling Brooks was having to do. Plus Durant's length and mobility adds another important defensive presence to that frontline.

Singler -- this contract was the one I really don't like. I felt like OKC could have signed a street free agent for the minimum who could have filled this role and considering the lux tax cost a ton less. I'm a fan of Singler--loved his game at Duke, but he's a min guy. baffled by this one.

Current Depth Chart:(guessing at C and SG)

Kanter/Adams/McGary
Ibaka/Collison/Novak
Durant/Singler
Roberson/Morrow/Waiters
Westbrook/Augustin/Payne (expect Payne to eventually be the number 2 and probably quickly)

Needs:

Not much. I'd love to see one more deal that lands them a full-time SG because I don't see any of their current options being more than about a 20 mpg player. I'd also like one more veteran defensive center. Other than that keep your stars healthy this year. Oh and find a dump for Novak by the deadline(unless you can include him a deal for a player you need)

Added Thoughts:

This is the most crucial year in the history of the Thunder franchise(not counting Sonics years). I think if OKC could win the title that Durant would never leave. The worst case scenario in that case would be him signing a 1 and 1 contract and OKC facing it again the next summer. So that's why I'm okay with the Kanter deal. I expect this team to be very motivated from the jump this year. I would not be shocked if they were the number 1 seed in the West. I liked the assistants they brought in around Donovan and I like that ownership has given Presti the resources to be more aggressive. They feel like one of 4-5 serious title contenders this year.

Win/loss Prediction: 61-21

Off-Season Grade: B+

Didn't lose a single player they cared about. Drafted the BPA in Payne. Dumped some dead money. Not consolidating at SG is the only real draw back and that may yet come this summer or during the season if one of the options doesn't seize the job.

[bondom34]

Good write up guys, and kinder than expected .

A few thoughts:
1. I feel the same on Kanter, hate the contract but PDX forced their hand.

2. The SG is still the spot for an upgrade as you said.

3. May sound crazy to some/many, but I'm not convinced Kanter starts. I think there's a definite chance he's a super sub at C, and the way some guys who report on the team on the regular are talking, its a distinct possibility.

[MoneyTalks41890]

Good write up guys, and kinder than expected .

A few thoughts:
1. I feel the same on Kanter, hate the contract but PDX forced their hand.

2. The SG is still the spot for an upgrade as you said.

3. May sound crazy to some/many, but I'm not convinced Kanter starts. I think there's a definite chance he's a super sub at C, and the way some guys who report on the team on the regular are talking, its a distinct possibility.

Also feel this was kinder than expected. And agree on points 1 and 2, but there aren't many assets left to upgrade unless McGary is involved or it's a mediocre vet like OJ.

I definitely think Kanter starts, because it's easy to appease him that way and it precludes the whole "he's paid max but doesn't start" thing, but I'm not sure he closes games or plays the lion's share of the minutes.

I didn't really like what Singler brought, but we will see I guess. Like the rest of the team, it's really about how they gel if healthy.

The most important thing here, which doesn't really need to be said, is KD's health is paramount to all of these ancillary concerns.

[bondom34]

Good write up guys, and kinder than expected .

A few thoughts:
1. I feel the same on Kanter, hate the contract but PDX forced their hand.

2. The SG is still the spot for an upgrade as you said.

3. May sound crazy to some/many, but I'm not convinced Kanter starts. I think there's a definite chance he's a super sub at C, and the way some guys who report on the team on the regular are talking, its a distinct possibility.

Also feel this was kinder than expected. And agree on points 1 and 2, but there aren't many assets left to upgrade unless McGary is involved or it's a mediocre vet like OJ.

I definitely think Kanter starts, because it's easy to appease him that way and it precludes the whole "he's paid max but doesn't start" thing, but I'm not sure he closes games or plays the lion's share of the minutes.

I didn't really like what Singler brought, but we will see I guess. Like the rest of the team, it's really about how they gel if healthy.

The most important thing here, which doesn't really need to be said, is KD's health is paramount to all of these ancillary concerns.

To the bold, the only thing I'd say is that he wasn't fit for what was asked of him. Check his splits as starter vs. reserve:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/singlky01/splits/

[Hawk Eye]

You forgot the poll Chuck

[Texas Chuck]

Re: starters at C and SG --- yeah I obviously defer to OKC guys on that (not that we have an early consensus here). I did default to Kanter based on that contract and my belief that "starting" is more important to him than it is Adams. I imagine the closing lineup most nights won't even have a center on the floor unless its against teams like Memphis or SAS where you don't have much choice.

[Laimbeer]

Wow I wish I'd have had you guys as teachers.

C-

Kanter and Singler were overpays and I was surprised they had to give up value to move PJ. They didn't really make a trade to improve (the two in particular) but their roster is stacked so that's defensible.

On the upside, I liked the value of Payne even if it didn't fill a need.

[Texas Chuck]

Wow I wish I'd have had you guys as teachers.

wait until you see tomorrow's. Spoiler alert: I hand out an A+


But I think part of what you perceive as "grade inflation" is more about us intentionally starting with teams that seem to be mostly complete. Many of the teams I'm prepared to give very bad grades to--don't seem to be totally done yet. Or at least for those teams' sake I'm hoping they aren't done yet.


As far as the Thunder specifically go. I don't like the Kanter/Singler contracts at all. And I can't defend teh Singler one at all. But they would either have Kanter or a vet min guy essentially as a center option in the most important year by far for their franchise. If the owners are willing to pay the bill--and obviously they are--it feels a little unfair to downgrade them for doing what I think they should do.

[bondom34]

Oh, and went B- for pretty much the reasons Chuck listed. Though I think Laimbeer had some tough teachers as a kid. I was a good student, but Cs weren't really something to be proud of for anyone growing up, if you at least achieved you were a B- kid, which I think is what OKC did. Nothing spectacular but they put in the effort.

[Andre Roberstan]

Needs:

I haven't seen enough games of them together to reach a conclusion on how I feel about the Ibaka/Kanter experiment but if it doesn't look good mid season then im looking for a new center or starting Adams. I also feel they need a true SG/3-D SG. I would be extremely upset if it happens but if im Presti then im making a call to ATL for Kyle Korver's services and seeing what his asking price is. I also am a bit of a Debbie downer on Waiters so if he even shows slight flashes of being good then im trading him while i still can for hopefully some good value. Other than a real SG and perhaps a better center if Ibaka/Kanter can't co-exist I dont see any real glaring needs. Maybe a better defensive wing? Their biggest need of all is health though. They have two top 5 players in the league on their roster so if they can stay healthy i expect a top 3 seed at the very least.

One caveat on that...we do have an excellent defensive wing in Roberson. Only issue is he can't shoot.

[Laimbeer]

Oh, and went B- for pretty much the reasons Chuck listed. Though I think Laimbeer had some tough teachers as a kid. I was a good student, but Cs weren't really something to be proud of for anyone growing up, if you at least achieved you were a B- kid, which I think is what OKC did. Nothing spectacular but they put in the effort.

Some, but they didn't do much good.

[bondom34]

Oh, and went B- for pretty much the reasons Chuck listed. Though I think Laimbeer had some tough teachers as a kid. I was a good student, but Cs weren't really something to be proud of for anyone growing up, if you at least achieved you were a B- kid, which I think is what OKC did. Nothing spectacular but they put in the effort.

Some, but they didn't do much good.

I can tell .

[bondom34]

Needs:

I haven't seen enough games of them together to reach a conclusion on how I feel about the Ibaka/Kanter experiment but if it doesn't look good mid season then im looking for a new center or starting Adams. I also feel they need a true SG/3-D SG. I would be extremely upset if it happens but if im Presti then im making a call to ATL for Kyle Korver's services and seeing what his asking price is. I also am a bit of a Debbie downer on Waiters so if he even shows slight flashes of being good then im trading him while i still can for hopefully some good value. Other than a real SG and perhaps a better center if Ibaka/Kanter can't co-exist I dont see any real glaring needs. Maybe a better defensive wing? Their biggest need of all is health though. They have two top 5 players in the league on their roster so if they can stay healthy i expect a top 3 seed at the very least.

One caveat on that...we do have an excellent defensive wing in Roberson. Only issue is he can't shoot in home games.

FTFY

[Andre Roberstan]

Needs:

I haven't seen enough games of them together to reach a conclusion on how I feel about the Ibaka/Kanter experiment but if it doesn't look good mid season then im looking for a new center or starting Adams. I also feel they need a true SG/3-D SG. I would be extremely upset if it happens but if im Presti then im making a call to ATL for Kyle Korver's services and seeing what his asking price is. I also am a bit of a Debbie downer on Waiters so if he even shows slight flashes of being good then im trading him while i still can for hopefully some good value. Other than a real SG and perhaps a better center if Ibaka/Kanter can't co-exist I dont see any real glaring needs. Maybe a better defensive wing? Their biggest need of all is health though. They have two top 5 players in the league on their roster so if they can stay healthy i expect a top 3 seed at the very least.

One caveat on that...we do have an excellent defensive wing in Roberson. Only issue is he can't shoot in home games.

FTFY

It's true. What were his splits? It was like 40% from 3 on the road and 8% from 3 at home or something.

[bondom34]

One caveat on that...we do have an excellent defensive wing in Roberson. Only issue is he can't shoot in home games.

FTFY

It's true. What were his splits? It was like 40% from 3 on the road and 8% from 3 at home or something.

Yep, that's it exactly, most bizarre split I've ever seen .

[Hawk Eye]

Oh, and went B- for pretty much the reasons Chuck listed. Though I think Laimbeer had some tough teachers as a kid. I was a good student, but Cs weren't really something to be proud of for anyone growing up, if you at least achieved you were a B- kid, which I think is what OKC did. Nothing spectacular but they put in the effort.

I had some hard-nosed teachers as well. Once got a 5 point deduction on my test for being 30 seconds late to class. But yea I under acheived severely in highscool. If i came home with anything above a 69 my parents were generally proud

[bondom34]

Oh, and went B- for pretty much the reasons Chuck listed. Though I think Laimbeer had some tough teachers as a kid. I was a good student, but Cs weren't really something to be proud of for anyone growing up, if you at least achieved you were a B- kid, which I think is what OKC did. Nothing spectacular but they put in the effort.

I had some hard-nosed teachers as well. Once got a 5 point deduction on my test for being 30 seconds late to class. But yea I under acheived severely in highscool. If i came home with anything above a 69 my parents were generally proud

I was the other way, but I did have some hard ass teachers as well. Never forget my HS calc teacher standing outside his door to check homework. He'd pick one random problem from the assignment and if you didn't do it (even if you did everything else) you got punished for it (usually had extra work and I think a deduction from the next quiz). Didn't do homework twice in a grading period and got detention.

[sterncohen]

Good writeups, and I agree with most of the observations (Payne, Kanter, Singler, etc.)

On the lineup this season, I think the Thunder can finally field a rotation in which they are never playing 3-on-5 on offense, as they have so often for years now by consistently starting a non-scoring C and a non-scoring SG. That means that Kanter plays with Roberson - I think in the starting lineup - and Adams plays with Morrow. (Yes, I'm ignoring Waiters. If he gets big minutes all bets are off.)

[Andre Roberstan]

Good writeups, and I agree with most of the observations (Payne, Kanter, Singler, etc.)

On the lineup this season, I think the Thunder can finally field a rotation in which they are never playing 3-on-5 on offense, as they have so often for years now by consistently starting a non-scoring C and a non-scoring SG. That means that Kanter plays with Roberson - I think in the starting lineup - and Adams plays with Morrow. (Yes, I'm ignoring Waiters. If he gets big minutes all bets are off.)

Watching Russ throw passes to Kanter out of the PnR last year was like watching a kid unwrap a present. I don't think he knows what to do with himself now that he has guys that can actually catch on the roll.

[bondom34]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5QYKAWZ05M[/youtube]