Expansion Draft Scenario -- Who would you protect?

[Texas Chuck]

Trades and Transactions board is going to be doing an expansion draft project where we imagine we are running a new expansion team starting play in 2015/16 and having to create our initial roster pulled from current NBA teams.

So in advance of that I'm trying to get the best possible idea of what 8 players each franchise would most likely choose to protect. And while last year we depended on our Trade board posters to provide us that list, this year we thought it would be more accurate if we consulted with the team boards.

So I would love to get your opinions itt on which 8 players you think the Rockets would protect in an expansion draft. I am attaching a link to last year's project so you can see some of the criteria we used when assembling the expansion team. Other than the cap figures the rules would be roughly the same this year.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1348605

We'd also love to have any and all of you come participate in this project.

[MaxRider]

how about players haven't sign yet
are we assuming they already signed?

protected
1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Ariza
4. Brewer
5. Beverley
6. Lawson
7. Jones
8. Motiejunas

i'm keeping our best 8 players

non-protected
9. Capela
10. Dekker
11. Harrell
12. McDaniels
13. Thornton

Terry and Hayes haven't agree a contract yet

[Nebula1]

how about players haven't sign yet
are we assuming they already signed?

protected
1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Ariza
4. Brewer
5. Beverley
6. Lawson
7. Jones
8. Motiejunas

i'm keeping our best 8 players

non-protected
9. Capela
10. Dekker
11. Harrell
12. McDaniels
13. Thornton

Terry and Hayes haven't agree a contract yet

I agree with Max, except I'd protect Capela and Dekker over Beverley and Motiejunas.

[MaxRider]

how about players haven't sign yet
are we assuming they already signed?

protected
1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Ariza
4. Brewer
5. Beverley
6. Lawson
7. Jones
8. Motiejunas

i'm keeping our best 8 players

non-protected
9. Capela
10. Dekker
11. Harrell
12. McDaniels
13. Thornton

Terry and Hayes haven't agree a contract yet

I agree with Max, except I'd protect Capela and Dekker over Beverley and Motiejunas.

who's going to be your backup pg? Terry?
if you are leaving Motiejunas unprotected then you don't need to keep Capela or Dekker
the rule is only picking one player from each team
most likely they will pick Capela or Motiejunas
you won't lose them all

[Nebula1]

who's going to be your backup pg? Terry?
if you are leaving Motiejunas unprotected then you don't need to keep Capela or Dekker
the rule is only picking one player from each team
most likely they will pick Capela or Motiejunas
you won't lose them all

Well I'm not giving up either of the two best prospects. Motie or Jones is debatable, but I lean keeping Jones since he's won the starting nod since he's been here.

With Lawson, Bev is more replaceable, but I imagine they'd take Motie over Bev, so that's my rationale. No way would I expose Dekker or Capela though.

[MaxRider]

who's going to be your backup pg? Terry?
if you are leaving Motiejunas unprotected then you don't need to keep Capela or Dekker
the rule is only picking one player from each team
most likely they will pick Capela or Motiejunas
you won't lose them all

Well I'm not giving up either of the two best prospects. Motie or Jones is debatable, but I lean keeping Jones since he's won the starting nod since he's been here.

With Lawson, Bev is more replaceable, but I imagine they'd take Motie over Bev, so that's my rationale. No way would I expose Dekker or Capela though.

Lawson is a gamble
if he didn't work out we still need a starting PG
i'm actually leading toward keeping either Ariza or Brewer
since we are in win mode now
i rather keep our best 8 players over young prospect
you can't really keep all Ariza, Brewer, Dekker

[Nebula1]

who's going to be your backup pg? Terry?
if you are leaving Motiejunas unprotected then you don't need to keep Capela or Dekker
the rule is only picking one player from each team
most likely they will pick Capela or Motiejunas
you won't lose them all

Well I'm not giving up either of the two best prospects. Motie or Jones is debatable, but I lean keeping Jones since he's won the starting nod since he's been here.

With Lawson, Bev is more replaceable, but I imagine they'd take Motie over Bev, so that's my rationale. No way would I expose Dekker or Capela though.

Lawson is a gamble
if he didn't work out we still need a starting PG
i'm actually leading toward keeping either Ariza or Brewer
since we are in win mode now
i rather keep our best 8 players over young prospect
you can't really keep all Ariza, Brewer, Dekker

I don't see Lawson as a gamble as much as I see him as a game changer for the organization. I believe he will take the Rockets to the next level.

Also, I have no problem keeping the three of Ariza, Brewer and Dekker but if I had to choose 1 to go, I'd drop Brewer. However, I see Brewer more as a SG and Dekker as the reserve SF.


Mostly I'm keeping the most valuable assets with the understanding Motie would get snatched. I see Motie as a long term center anyhow.

[moofs]

Terry and Hayes haven't agree a contract yet

I agree with Max, except I'd protect Capela and Dekker over Beverley and Motiejunas.

I'd protect Motie over Dekker, and drop Jones instead of Bev.

1. Harden
2. Lawson
3. Howard
4. Ariza
5. Brewer
6. Beverley
7. Capela
8. Motiejunas

I'm REALLY REALLY tempted to drop Brewer in favor of Montrezl.

[MaxRider]

on second thought
i'm protecting
1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Lawson
4. Ariza
5. Motiejunas
6. Capela
7. Dekker
8. Harrell

yes i'm leaving Jones, Brewer, Beverley unprotected
usually expansion team don't take role player like Brewer and Beverley who has bigger than MLE contract
i'm willing to give up on Jones
we won't be able to re-sign both Motiejunas and Jones anyway
time to develop Harrell as backup PF

[Nebula1]

on second thought
i'm protecting
1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Lawson
4. Ariza
5. Motiejunas
6. Capela
7. Dekker
8. Harrell

yes i'm leaving Jones, Brewer, Beverley unprotected
usually expansion team don't take role player like Brewer and Beverley who has bigger than MLE contract
i'm willing to give up on Jones
we won't be able to re-sign both Motiejunas and Jones anyway
time to develop Harrell as backup PF

I don't think you protect Harrell over Jones. No no.

Jones is a good player and has consistently won the starting job over Motiejunas. I know everybody likes Motie's post game, but he's slow and possibly a long-term reserve center rather than a stretch 4.

I keep Jones over either Motie or Harrell.

Brewer is nice too and probably the most important bench player for this team. I'd protect him too.


1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Ariza
4. Lawson
5. Jones
6. Brewer
7. Dekker
8. Capela


Most likely Motiejunas gets snatched but that protects Beverley.

[Mr. E]

This one isn't as cut-and-paste as the past couple year's.

We have the obvious locks: Harden, Howard, Ariza and I'm going to go ahead and put Lawson and Brewer in there. Lawson's non-guaranteed final year could be appealing and seen as a low-risk prospect; and Brewer will likely be seen as a value at his price compared to his peers.

Motiejunas and Jones are both up for big contracts soon, but are on good deals right now. I do think that teams would snatch up either with the thought that they would re-sign them. For the Rockets even if they don't plan on keeping both long-term, they both have positive trade value so I'm holding on to both of them.

This leaves our last spot.

For me this is between Beverley and Capela. No offense to the Rookies, but right now these are two guys with a proven track record. Capela definitely got on people's radars during the playoffs and Beverley is a known commodity (but has a reputation as injury-prone).

Then of course there is KJ McDaniels, whom the Rockets are very high on. I could actually see Morey leave one of the PF's unprotected and keep McDaniels.

Right now I have:

1) Harden
2) Howard
3) Ariza
4) Brewer
5) Lawson
6) Motiejunas
7) Jones

And a three-way race for #8. Got to think about this one.

[MaxRider]

I don't think you protect Harrell over Jones. No no.

Jones is a good player and has consistently won the starting job over Motiejunas. I know everybody likes Motie's post game, but he's slow and possibly a long-term reserve center rather than a stretch 4.

I keep Jones over either Motie or Harrell.

Brewer is nice too and probably the most important bench player for this team. I'd protect him too.


1. Harden
2. Howard
3. Ariza
4. Lawson
5. Jones
6. Brewer
7. Dekker
8. Capela


Most likely Motiejunas gets snatched but that protects Beverley.

omg this is so tough
i'm just glad i'm not the one in charge

it really doesn't make sense for expansion team to take Beverley over one of our young prospect
so i'll leave Beverley available

question is who do we value the most between Capela, Dekker, Harrell, McDaniels
maybe we can hope other team has better option for them to take

[Nebula1]

I value both Capela and Dekker over Motiejunas. I just cannot expose our two best prospects. Maybe you could convince me to keep Motiejunas over Brewer.


There is no doubt it's a big year for both Jones and Motiejunas since we still don't know about these guys.

[Nebula1]

I guess I look at it like you have to keep

Harden - franchise
Howard - franchise

Ariza - core
Lawson - core

Dekker - top prospect
Capela - top prospect

Jones or Motiejunas - starting pf
Brewer or Beverley - super sub

[rocketsballin]

dwight
harden
ariza
lawson
capella
motie
beverley
dekker

dmo is our best post player how can u not protect him? he's also capable of good defense and a 7footer, at pf. u have to keep him. jones is a dime a dozen pf.

since rockets are in the west, a pg rotation of lawson and bev can be tough on the other team. bev's defense is overrated cuz he plays too many minutes. at 20mpg he can stay healthy and play consistent hard ass d.

i dunno between dekker and brewer. win now mode is brewer, but dekker has potential to be a better fit. i choose dekker. there top west teams gives their first round pick consistent minutes. he just needs 10mpg. won 56 games with overplaying ariza.

[MaxRider]

I guess I look at it like you have to keep

Harden - franchise
Howard - franchise

Ariza - core
Lawson - core

Dekker - top prospect
Capela - top prospect

Jones or Motiejunas - starting pf
Brewer or Beverley - super sub

my rank Harrell > Capela > Dekker > McDaniels

must keep: Harden, Howard, Ariza, Lawson
debatable: Jones or Motiejunas (i like to keep both, due their healthy history, back injury is more serious, i would keep Jones over Motiejunas, but Morey value Motiejunas more)
6th man: Brewer (24M/3yrs), Beverley (25M/4yrs) (both with new reasonable contract, i don't see expansion team taking them other than trying to meet the minimum salary cap, if i have to pick one, i keep Brewer)

since Harrell hasn't sign yet
let's cheat the system
i'll keep Harden, Howard, Ariza, Lawson, Brewer, Jones, Capela, Dekker
leaving Beverley, Motiejunas, McDaniels unprotected
what? told you Harrell hasn't sign yet
so sign him after training camp started lol

[moofs]

Hey, sorry guys, I made a mistake.

I'm protecting Chuck Hayes instead of Harden.

[zapatasblood]

Two of Ariza Brewer and Bev will be taken out to protect Capela and dekker. Honestly doubt the incoming team(s) are going to want those big contracts with quite a few years left. They'd quickly snatch up Capela and Dekker if left unprotected.

As for unprotecting your best low post scoring big, motie, I find that crazy as all hell. If it is between one of Jones and Motie well see yah TJ.


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[DonHouston]

1.Harden
2.Howard
3.Ariza
4.Montijunas
5.Lawson
6.Brewer
7.Beverely
8.Jones

[Nebula1]

1.Harden
2.Howard
3.Ariza
4.Montijunas
5.Lawson
6.Brewer
7.Beverely
8.Jones

What about Dekker and/or Capela?