PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Atlanta Hawks

[Texas Chuck]

PMOTT3's Review:

Key Losses:

DeMarre Carroll

This one hurts bad. DeMarre was our best defender and improved every year in our system (even shot 40% from 3 last season). He was one of if not our best player in the entire playoffs last season.

Losses:

Danny Ferry (Previous GM)
Pero Antic- about time
Elton Brand
John Jenkins
Austin Daye

Im okay with Ferry being gone. It was going to he hard to attract the big fish in FA had we kept him. Plus, he doesnt have a very good track record through the draft (did hit nicely on Schröder though). Even though he hit a homerun with the Joe Johnson trade; he failed to move Josh Smith back when he still had value.

Brand, Jenkins, and Daye mostly just played garbage minutes for us last season. And the only thing I'm going to miss about Pero is his pump fakes -- he can take his 0/34 from 3 stats overseas.

Draft:

#50 Marcus Eriksson
#59 Dimitrios Agravanis

Dont really know anything about these guys; just prospects to stash overseas for now.

Trades:

.#15 for #19 & two future WAS 2nds
. #19 for freaking Tim Hardaway Jr.
. Rights to the mystery that is Printezis and a top 55 protected 17' 2nd for Tiago Splitter.

This is where it gets ugly..I really didnt like trading Kelly Oubre (#15) for four spots down in the draft order and two future 2nds. Would have thought we could have gotten a protected 1st at the very least. i also really like Oubre's potential. Dont even get me started on trading #19 for FREAKING Tim Hardaway Jr. Obviously im still not over that..

BUT, I have forgiven Wes & Bud for their horrible draft night for the absolute steal of acquiring Splitter. Basicallly got him for free. Splitter fills a real need for us and is an excellent PnR defender. Also a great defensive minded big that knows the system and allows for Horford to play PF in spot minutes. Great steal here.

Free Agency:

Paul Millsap
Bringing over our 7"3 C prospect Tavares
Justin Holiday

I have to admit Orlando really gave me a scare but im happy Paul returned. I also like that the deal is only 3 years instead of the full 4 or 5; more flexibility. We were never going to be able to retain both DeMarre and Paul so we made the right decision here.

Im really excited about Tavares. We got him on an extremely cheap deal (1 mil per year over 3 years) and he has looked good in SL. Adapting to the speed of the game seems to be his biggest hurdle right now. Anyways, Im not expecting a Rudy Gobert breakout in the next 1-2 years but ill keep my fingers crossed just in case.

I dont know a lot about Holiday but i like that he is already going to be familiar with the system. Got him on the cheap too so i like it.

Current Depth Chart:

PG: Teague/Schröder/Mack
SG: Korver/THJ/Holiday
SF: Sefolosha/Bazemore
PF: Millsap/Muscala/Scott
C: Horford/Splitter/Tavares

I expect Bud to rotate Millsap and Korver at SF in certain lineups frequently. Like this..

Teague/THJ/Korver/Millsap/Horford

&

Teague/Korver/Millsap/Horford/Splitter

But really both of those guys are better off at the 2 & 4.

Needs:

We really need a starting caliber Wing. Thabo is coming off a major injury. Korver as well and both are climbing up the age chart. Bazemore is better in spurts as an energy wing. THJ isnt starter material. Our bigs size/depth was our problem last year but now its our wings this year.

Additional Thoughts:

I fully expect a playoffs appearance. I dont expect another 17-0 in a month and 19 game winning streak magical season like last year but we'll definitely be in the mix for a top 3 seed. Splitter gives us the needed size that killed us in our playoff series against CLE. I expect him to become a fan favorite right off the bat. I also feel bad for bashing on THJ too hard. I think he's a decent prospect and may even look really good in our system but he definitely wasn't worth #19 at the time. Oh and watch out for a big year from Schröder. He's been posting instagram photos working out in the gym a lot with Kyle Korver. Shooting numbers could climb even higher this season.

Win/Loss Prediction: 58-24

Bud will have these guys playing the right way night in and night out. I'm hoping for another showdown with CLE in the ECF (and a different result this time)

Off-Season Grade: B+

Draft night sucked. Losing DeMarre sucks even more. BUT Re-signing Paul, Getting Splitter for peanuts, adding Holiday, THJ, and Tavares for depth makes up for it.


Chuck Texas' Review:

Key losses:

DeMarre Carroll
Danny Ferry

That starting 5 was just outstanding last year and Carroll's abilities to defend and shoot a big part of what made that work. Thabo and Bazemore have a lot of pressure now.

I think Danny Ferry had been a good GM for them. He got them off that treadmill with Smith/Johnson and instead of the expected fall off, the team got better and quickly. Obviously in today's world, they pretty much had to let him go for the Deng comment. I think this is a loss tho.

Other losses:

Pero Antic
Elton Brand
John Jenkins
Austin Daye

Draft:

Hated it. Hated it. Hated it. Trading back from 15 to 19 I didn't love, but it got them a couple future assets and it was saving them a little more cap space so fine. Still some interesting prospects there. But to then trade 19 for THJ I hated.

Trades:

Splitter for rights to Printezis and a future 2nd I liked this deal. They have long been looking for a center who can play next to Horford and Splitter obviously can. He's a good defender and comes from the Spurs so coach Bud knows him. They weren't going to be able to get a better guy in free agency for what they had to spend.

Free Agency:

Millsap huge deal.
Bringing over Tavares
Justin Holiday

I would have chosen Millsap over Carroll every time especially at those figures. I would have thought LMA would have made a lot of sense for them, but he didn't seem to consider them so I didn't see anyone better than Millsap for them.

Depth Chart: (just look at PMOTT3's he'll know better than me)*

Al Horford/Tiago Splitter/Mike Muscala/ Walter Tavares
Paul Millsap/Mike Scott
Thabo Sefolosha/Kent Bazemore
Kyle Korver/Tim Hardaway Jr/Justin Holiday
Jeff Teague/Dennis Schroder/Shelvin Mack

Comment on rotations: I think we will see Millsap at the 3 some with Splitter/Horford at the power positions and I think we will see Korver at the 3 quite a bit with Teague and Schroder playing together or Hardaway on the court.

Needs:

Would love to see another starting caliber wing. I think Thabo/Bazemore/THJ are decent backup quality wings, but none of them are complete players. I'd also prefer them to have a different guy in the GM spot. That's not to say I don't think Bud might not be capable of the role, but more my philosophy that its much better to have those roles separated.

Additional Thoughts:

Immediately after a season in which a lot of people were talking about how great the Hawks were for basketball and what a great team they were--almost everyone but me immediately dismissed them as being paper tigers, clearly overrated, and never a true contender. I disagreed then and still do now. They got to the ECF and lost to Lebron and had injury/suspension issues. Yes the Cavs had more, but the Cavs were all about Lebron and he was still there. I think the Hawks proved they were a great team all year and nothing about the PS changed that for me. End Rant.

I think if they can solve the situation at the 3 this year--and I trust that Coach Bud can--they will once again be fighting for the #1 seed in the East. I struggle to see them win 4 games against the Lebron-led Cavs, but I think they are as good as anyone else in the East.

Win/loss Prediction: 60-22

They play in the East and still have the talent to win 60 games again.

Off-Season Grade: B-

I liked the Splitter deal and bringing back Millsap. Hated the draft, feel like Ferry is a loss and its risk to replace him with a guy with no FO experience especially when he has so much responsibility already as HC. Don't feel like they did enough to address the wing.

[cammac]

Splitter was the big pick-up and the resigning of Milsap.
The fiasco of the draft and losing Carroll will hurt.
Rating C

[Laimbeer]

C-

The Splitter acquisition was nice but doesn't quite offset the loss of Carroll. Honestly, the draft was botched.

[DK-All Day]

C+.

I don't blame the Hawks for not paying Carroll the money he was demanding, but losing him was a loss. I like the big man rotation with the Splitter acquisition. I hated the THJR deal. That was a robbery by the Knicks. I would have taken Kelly Oubre Jr. for my self and develop him as the team's future SF. He has a lot of raw talent and potential.

Underwhelming offseason and I think Atlanta takes a slight step back this season. Losing Carroll isn't going to hurt that much.

[bondom34]

I went B. Don't like the draft and not convinced Carroll was that great. I think the Splitter pick up helps more, and they kept Millsap.

Edit: Should also say I actually like THJ, I just don't love the value of the move for a guy who's already nearing RFA time. I'd have felt better if they took Oubre or RHJ.

[Hawk Eye]

I may have my rose colored glasses too tight but any grade that starts with a C feels off here.

We were in real danger of losing Millsap and were able to convince him to resign on a 3 year deal. After Love & LMA he was the best PF available.

Even though the draft sucked, we did come away from it collecting future assets.

I also think what made DeMarre so great was being a product of our system. When people watch him in Toronto this year i suspect he will look a lot more average. His defense should still be really good though.

We got Splitter in a straight up salary dump basically. Huge get for us.

Our depth was a problem at times last year and we fixed that by adding THJ, Holiday, and Tavares.

End Rant.

[tiderulz]

I may have my rose colored glasses too tight but any grade that starts with a C feels off here.

We were in real danger of losing Millsap and were able to convince him to resign on a 3 year deal. After Love & LMA he was the best PF available.

Even though the draft sucked, we did come away from it collecting future assets.

I also think what made DeMarre so great was being a product of our system. When people watch him in Toronto this year i suspect he will look a lot more average. His defense should still be really good though.

We got Splitter in a straight up salary dump basically. Huge get for us.

Our depth was a problem at times last year and we fixed that by adding THJ, Holiday, and Tavares.

End Rant.

future 2nd's imo are not that big an asset. I still think you can buy 2nd's in the draft these days. rather than wasting that pick (which happened in my mind), why not take Oubre, for example, who was available? But instead, Atlanta now has THJ, who i dont believe has as high a ceiling, and now is 2 years closer to getting a bigger pay check.

Demarre's offense was a product of the system, but his defense wasnt. I dont think Thabo provides the same level of defense nowadays. Splitter helps, but at the end of the day, he is a backup center there, as i cant see Atlanta running a crunch time lineup with Millsap at the 3. And Tavares is an unknown yet to whether he really helps the bench or not, but almost anyone should be an upgrade over Pero.

[BudenFerry]

Demarre was never the Hawks best defender. Thabo and Millsap are easily better defenders and Bazemore probably is as well.

and when did Josh ever have value? He had so much value that the Pistons were the only team even remotely interested in him as a free agent in the following offseason.

[BudenFerry]

I think Tim Hardaway will surprise people as a Hawk. The Hawks have had great success with finding hidden gems on the wing under Bud/Ferry. They stole Korver away from Chicago for free. Carroll was an unknown before he blew up in Atlanta. Bazemore was a solid rotational player at the end of his 1st year and he missed last year's offseason while recovering from a surgery. Thabo was excellent under Bud before getting injured last year. Thabo is to the Hawks D what Korver is to their O.

So don't be surprised when Hardaway Jr. all of a sudden looks like a promising young player by the end of next year. New York is a trainwreck with bad management from top to bottom. He's now under the guidance of one of the best group of talent developers in the league.

[tiderulz]

I think Tim Hardaway will surprise people as a Hawk. The Hawks have had great success with finding hidden gems on the wing under Bud/Ferry. They stole Korver away from Chicago for free. Carroll was an unknown before he blew up in Atlanta. Bazemore was a solid rotational player at the end of his 1st year and he missed last year's offseason while recovering from a surgery. Thabo was excellent under Bud before getting injured last year. Thabo is to the Hawks D what Korver is to their O.

So don't be surprised when Hardaway Jr. all of a sudden looks like a promising young player by the end of next year. New York is a trainwreck with bad management from top to bottom. He's now under the guidance of one of the best group of talent developers in the league.

Korver from Chicago, that was Ferry, not Bud. Im not sold that Atlanta is better off without Ferry. He was able to get Demarre, Millsap, Korver. Those werent moves done by Bud. Bud with some GM duties, i would worry a bit about that.

And Thabo is what he is, a bench defender, best played at 20 mpg or less.

[BudenFerry]

I think Tim Hardaway will surprise people as a Hawk. The Hawks have had great success with finding hidden gems on the wing under Bud/Ferry. They stole Korver away from Chicago for free. Carroll was an unknown before he blew up in Atlanta. Bazemore was a solid rotational player at the end of his 1st year and he missed last year's offseason while recovering from a surgery. Thabo was excellent under Bud before getting injured last year. Thabo is to the Hawks D what Korver is to their O.

So don't be surprised when Hardaway Jr. all of a sudden looks like a promising young player by the end of next year. New York is a trainwreck with bad management from top to bottom. He's now under the guidance of one of the best group of talent developers in the league.

Korver from Chicago, that was Ferry, not Bud. Im not sold that Atlanta is better off without Ferry. He was able to get Demarre, Millsap, Korver. Those werent moves done by Bud. Bud with some GM duties, i would worry a bit about that.

And Thabo is what he is, a bench defender, best played at 20 mpg or less.

I agree that the Hawks were better off with Ferry and will probably end up regretting letting him go. I included Ferry's name right before I talked about Korver and the others so I'm not sure what you are trying to correct me on.

Thabo led the league in opponents fg% before his injury last season. He is still one of the very best wing defenders in this league.

[Texas Chuck]

Thabo is a great defender still, but unless his shot returns, you simply can't play him the way you could DMC. That's the issue the Hawks have right now. They have some guys who can replace his defense, but then Atlanta loses the ability to have 5 threats on the court together most of the game.

Part of that will be solved with Korver playing more 3 and a little bit with Millsap doing the same probably, but it will be an adjustment for sure. Part of what made Atlanta special last year was having 5 2-way players playing together all the time. The replacements this year are more specialists and it will be interesting to see if that works without a superstar anchoring things.

[Domejandro]

I found their off-season to be for the most part atrocious, though some things are far out of their control (I am going to be lazy and just list, but if somebody wants a better explanation feel free to post).

1. That draft night was astonishingly horrid, there is really no positives that I can find out of it.
2. Though I cannot blame them for letting DeMarre Carroll walk, he is a big loss that cannot simply be ignored.
3. Kyle Korver had to undergo two major surgeries.
4. Losing Danny Ferry was not a positive at all, he is a really saddening loss for this Atlanta team.
5. Promoting Mike Budenholzer feels a bit dodgy, as his best asset is his wonderful coaching ability.

I loved the Tiago Splitter acquisition, but I thought everything else was sub-par. I am open about not being a fan of Walter Tavares, so he is only the slightest of positives for me this off-season, but there was really nothing good about the off-season other than Splitter.

Low "C-", but since that is not up there "D". I believe that a "B" for losing a key free-agent and having a horrific draft night is somewhat silly. I was one of the biggest Atlanta flag waivers last season, but I am feeling rather pessimistic about how this season may go for them.

[tiderulz]

I think Tim Hardaway will surprise people as a Hawk. The Hawks have had great success with finding hidden gems on the wing under Bud/Ferry. They stole Korver away from Chicago for free. Carroll was an unknown before he blew up in Atlanta. Bazemore was a solid rotational player at the end of his 1st year and he missed last year's offseason while recovering from a surgery. Thabo was excellent under Bud before getting injured last year. Thabo is to the Hawks D what Korver is to their O.

So don't be surprised when Hardaway Jr. all of a sudden looks like a promising young player by the end of next year. New York is a trainwreck with bad management from top to bottom. He's now under the guidance of one of the best group of talent developers in the league.

Korver from Chicago, that was Ferry, not Bud. Im not sold that Atlanta is better off without Ferry. He was able to get Demarre, Millsap, Korver. Those werent moves done by Bud. Bud with some GM duties, i would worry a bit about that.

And Thabo is what he is, a bench defender, best played at 20 mpg or less.

I agree that the Hawks were better off with Ferry and will probably end up regretting letting him go. I included Ferry's name right before I talked about Korver and the others so I'm not sure what you are trying to correct me on.

Thabo led the league in opponents fg% before his injury last season. He is still one of the very best wing defenders in this league.

I can see why Atlanta let Ferry go. New owners, PR drama, etc. I do think there could be a few issues from it, personnel decision-wise though.

[BudenFerry]

I find it funny that people are crucifying their draft decision so quickly. Bud has proven himself to be a good evaluator of talent and he wanted THJr. The Hawks are set up to win now and Oubre wouldn't have been ready to contribute this year.

Until facts say otherwise, I am going to trust Bud's judgment in this situation over some RealGM posters opinion. Bud knows the type of players he wants and he went out and got himself one with that pick.

[HartfordWhalers]

C+

Splitter for free was a steal. The draft was a disaster. Milsap was a key re-signing but also looks expensive in year 3. And 4. Tavares is a nice thing?

[Hawk Eye]

Demarre was never the Hawks best defender. Thabo and Millsap are easily better defenders and Bazemore probably is as well.

and when did Josh ever have value? He had so much value that the Pistons were the only team even remotely interested in him as a free agent in the following offseason.

I can understand making an argument for Thabo and Millsap being better defenders than DeMarre but including Bazemore is a stretch.

And the Suns were rumored to have heavy interest in Josh Smith. According to past sources at the time, they were offering Gortat, Dudley, and a future (i assume protected) 1st. Gortat would have been our first real center and would have allowed Horford to move to PF.

[loserX]

Agreed with the general consensus.

Obviously getting Splitter for nothing is a huge win. The Hawks got crushed by the Cavs' "big-ball" attack in the playoffs and know they need someone to counteract that.

The draft was awful. I don't even hate Hardaway Jr. that much...but this was a team that stood a really good chance of losing both their starting forwards (and nearly did! Millsap came back though). And yet somehow the Hawks decided that what they really needed from the draft was a backup SG and some future 2nds. I don't get it at all.

Losing Carroll obviously hurts, but I don't fault them too much for not offering him the max. Would be nice to see them get a real replacement, though. Chuck is right...part of what made the Hawks special was their 5-man offence. Putting Thabo or someone like that in the starting lineup is going to change that.

[BudenFerry]

Demarre was never the Hawks best defender. Thabo and Millsap are easily better defenders and Bazemore probably is as well.

and when did Josh ever have value? He had so much value that the Pistons were the only team even remotely interested in him as a free agent in the following offseason.

I can understand making an argument for Thabo and Millsap being better defenders than DeMarre but including Bazemore is a stretch.

And the Suns were rumored to have heavy interest in Josh Smith. According to past sources at the time, they were offering Gortat, Dudley, and a future (i assume protected) 1st. Gortat would have been our first real center and would have allowed Horford to move to PF.

This is pure insanity. I would love to see some concrete evidence of this since this is the first I have ever heard of it and I keep close tabs on the Hawks.

[Hawk Eye]

Demarre was never the Hawks best defender. Thabo and Millsap are easily better defenders and Bazemore probably is as well.

and when did Josh ever have value? He had so much value that the Pistons were the only team even remotely interested in him as a free agent in the following offseason.

I can understand making an argument for Thabo and Millsap being better defenders than DeMarre but including Bazemore is a stretch.

And the Suns were rumored to have heavy interest in Josh Smith. According to past sources at the time, they were offering Gortat, Dudley, and a future (i assume protected) 1st. Gortat would have been our first real center and would have allowed Horford to move to PF.

This is pure insanity. I have followed the Hawks every move for years and this was never mentioned. I would love to see some evidence of this fairy tale.

Be careful what you ask for next time, and here's the fairy tale(s) you ordered.

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2013/2/21/4013258/nba-trade-rumors-phoenix-a-frontrunner-to-land-josh-smith

http://m.bleacherreport.com/articles/1537829-nba-trade-rumors-phoenix-suns-package-will-help-land-josh-smith-at-deadline