Wizards acquire Jared Dudley

[gambitx777]

if Hump can start knocking down 3's he will get playing time. This will for sure hurt m preferred starting line up.
Wall
Beal
Dudley
Porter
Gortat.
We are not going to start any of out other wings. So that mean porter is starting at the 3. and we have to find a new starting 4....I hope its not NENE, I would rather starting Hump or Gooden over nene. I hope this leads to us cutting both temple or blair to bring in more big bodies. OR a trade or something.

[payitforward]

As far as the regular season goes I see a 45-50 win team. They added shooting and while Pierce is a loss, Otto I think can come in an be a 13/6 type of player who will be a HUGE upgrade defensively. Their biggest chance at improvement is from within, if they can find a perimeter four who can give their guards a chance to make a significant leap. Dudley may be that guy by January but they'd be better off dumping a non fit like Blair and doubling up at the stretch 4 w/Dudley on the shelf.

While I disagree with your prediction for the Wiz this year (I think a 4/5 seed is again their likely landing spot), this isn't a do or die season. Long term, this nucleus has has potential to achieve beyond that.

I think these are kind of mind-blowing positions. We started last year 19-6, because we had an extra all-star level player (Butler). Once he was replaced by the real Rasual Butler, we played the rest of the season 27-30. The final 30 games of the season we went 14-16. We were 7-7 in March. We closed the regular season going 5-3 in April. 3 of those wins were against Philadelphia & NY, arguably the worst two teams in the league and playing w/ nothing at stake.

How are we going to be *better* this year? We lost Pierce, who played @2000 minutes at a high level. Our replacement for him is lucky to contribute 1000 minutes. The Butler dream ended; Neal and Anderson will be hard-pressed to equal his overall season productivity, given the hot start he had.

It'd take an enormous jump from Beal & Porter to get us back to the success we had last year, which was essentially the same level of success we'd had the previous year. Even that seems hard to imagine; there are too many minutes to fill, and the guys we have are mostly too old to increase their minutes and/or not good enough to fill them at last year's level.

You're allowing Pierce's post season signature moments to cloud history. Pierce had a solid year offensively but was a defensive liability. Wasn't their a sentiment in the second half of the season that Otto should start and Pierce should move to the bench? At least J Michael had suggested that a few times. Butler was a good bench player early in the year and his struggles contributed to their poor second half but their poor second half was also a result of roster construction that didn't have any wing depth and coaching. Were they as good as their start? No, but that doesn't mean they were as bad as their finish. What's the basis for putting added weight on the 2nd half?

My opinion, this teams best proposition for growth THIS offseason was always from within based on what we saw in the playoffs. Putting John and Brad in a system that opens the court for them, playing to their strengths was their best hope. They may actually make a leap versus incremental improvements with a change in the offense.

Assuming no growth from the backcourt they've lost Pierce, and Rasual and replaced them with Dudley, AA, Neal, and Oubre. Positives and minues to each but I don't see the loss as far as the regular season goes. If that's mindblowing I guess I'll have to re-evaluate what mindblowing is

Ok... "mindblowing" = overstatement. Hey... it's July!

All the same -- Pierce was extremely productive during regular season. Better than the previous season. His productive play got us regular season wins. Butler was off the charts early in the season, and that is why we we got out of the gate so incredibly fast. When he faded back to normal, our record faded as well.

Which explains my "putting added weight on the 2d half" -- you think we've got a guy coming in (Anderson? Neal?) who is going to play at the level Butler played at the first 25-30 games of the season? His play got us wins. We also won't have a guy playing at Pierce's level. And, from our creaky old vets we are going to need lots more minutes -- which, lets be real, they aren't going to be able to give us.

That's too much productivity to replace -- Anderson and Neal don't come close. And there are too many minutes to fill -- between Pierce and Seraphin being gone, there are 3200 minutes to replace. Dudley isn't going to help much being injured. And if you think Anderson can play the 3 much -- let alone at the level Pierce played -- you haven't noticed that he's been a 2 pretty much his whole career.

We're very likely in a lot of trouble.

[payitforward]

One thing worth noting is that Dudley was acquired using our TPE, a TPE that had limited usefulness because there weren't a lot of half-decent players on expiring contracts with a salary of $4.65M or less. I guess what I'm saying is that the opportunity cost was low. Even if Dudley only ends up playing half a season, the trade was still defensible because the alternative was doing nothing with the TPE and letting it expire next summer.

A small TPE and a heavily protected 2nd wouldn't have gotten anything else IMO. As long as we get at least a solid second-half of the season and playoffs from him, it's still a net plus IMO.

Having a roster spot would be more useful then a dead weight player. Any assumption that Jared will be even mediocre when he comes back is foolish, he is a liability until he proves otherwise. Just because it is first back surgery doesn't absolve him of a typically tricky recovery. Trading for an injured player on a one year rental is stupid no matter how you try to spin it, and I'm sure the pro EG crowd will do their best at this spin job.

This seems obvious.

I doubt we knew he'd need surgery -- even if we did know he'd played w/ pain.

In any case, Ernie specializes in acquiring guys who are available cheap, because they've been hampered by injuries.

[barelyawake]

Assumptions being made by those predicting 50 wins:

Pierce's leadership won't be missed.
Dudley will be back.
Humphries will start hitting outside shots and prove an alpha scorer (though he has never been one).
Nene won't have regressed.
Seraphin not on the roster is a plus.
Beal will develop into an Allstar scorer, even though he still has problems with his handles, passivity and ability to finish.
Wall will be a leader who, alone, can guide a team even though he has needed help via Pierce and Ariza in this regard every year thus far.
Gortat will suddenly get the refs' whistle where he never has in his entire career.
Sessions, Neal, Etc will so elevate our play to the point where they will beat the improvements by the other teams in the East.

The problem is the above are all the best case scenarios, and almost all probably won't happen, but people are stating them as if they are givens.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I said when the Wiz got him - he had the same injury issues Webster had when the Wiz got him. Just be glad EG didn't extend him. And the only reason he didn't was hope for Durant, so there's an indirect benefit from going after Durant - cup half full.

That pick will turn into a Clarkson is my guess, Ruz. This is going to hurt worse than at face value.

Maybe it gives Martell Webster some burn and the opportunity to earn a trade ...

CCJ, the pick is actually a top 55 protected 2nd round pick

Wasn't Manu Ginobili the 57th pick?

Then again, I guess you're saying there's actually NO CHANCE the Wizards have a pick AFTER 55, so no pick was traded.

Thanks, FAH1223. I'm determined to bitch and moan, but thanks.

[closg00]

You have to weigh a partial year of Dudley coming back off surgery vs keeping that slot open for the next trade deadline, signing SL/training camp invite, or using D-League call-up.

I know we had to "get something" for the TPE, but why not keep that roster spot open, then check on Dudely later in the season and sign him for the vet minimum for the remainder of the season IF he proves he is at 100%



#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

[payitforward]

Jared Dudley is an ok veteran 3 who has rarely been a starter in his 8 year career. The fact that losing Jared Dudley is a big blow to the Wizards should be a signal that we are in some trouble for the upcoming season.

Kris Humphries has never been a 3-point shooter in his 10 year career; in fact, he's never been much relied on for offense of any kind. He's always been a solid player who works hard, rebounds well and rarely makes big mistakes. The fact that we are imagining him, out of the blue, as a "stretch 4" who takes/makes a lot of 3-pointers should be another signal that we are in some trouble for the upcoming season.

Drew Gooden is going into his 15th season, passed his peak long ago, and hasn't been relied on for a whole lot of minutes in many years. The fact that... rinse and repeat.

[nate33]

You have to weigh a partial year of Dudley coming back off surgery vs keeping that slot open for the next trade deadline, signing SL/training camp invite, or using D-League call-up.

I know we had to "get something" for the TPE, but why not keep that roster spot open, then check on Dudely later in the season and sign him for the vet minimum for the remainder of the season IF he proves he is at 100%



#FireErnie ~ Because he believed Stephen Curry couldn't help us and Jan Vesely could.

If need be, we can always cut Temple if a roster spot is desperately needed.

[dckingsfan]

Kris Humphries has never been a 3-point shooter in his 10 year career; in fact, he's never been much relied on for offense of any kind. He's always been a solid player who works hard, rebounds well and rarely makes big mistakes. The fact that we are imagining him, out of the blue, as a "stretch 4" ...

Basing the season on it - if it doesn't happen, we are screwgied... Humphries/Gooden have to eat up most of the minutes at PF (with a few Nene minutes). But we are fans - fanatics - it will happen!

[Ruzious]

Jared Dudley is an ok veteran 3 who has rarely been a starter in his 8 year career. The fact that losing Jared Dudley is a big blow to the Wizards should be a signal that we are in some trouble for the upcoming season.

Kris Humphries has never been a 3-point shooter in his 10 year career; in fact, he's never been much relied on for offense of any kind. He's always been a solid player who works hard, rebounds well and rarely makes big mistakes. The fact that we are imagining him, out of the blue, as a "stretch 4" who takes/makes a lot of 3-pointers should be another signal that we are in some trouble for the upcoming season.

Drew Gooden is going into his 15th season, passed his peak long ago, and hasn't been relied on for a whole lot of minutes in many years. The fact that... rinse and repeat.

It's hardly out of the blue for talking about Hump developing a 3 - since he was the one that brought it up towards the end of last season. And the writing on the wall couldn't have been more clearer that the coaching staff wants him to develop a 3. The 3 point shot is the reason he was benched in the playoffs. He's already proven to be an excellent shooter to 18 feet. It's really not a stretch to say that with the hard work he's putting in that hes got a decent "shot" to become a 3 point shooting threat.

[Illmatic12]

If teams aren't guarding Humphries from midrange, more often than not they'll be conceding two points. When he's in good form he can knock down open midrange shots all day.

So if Humphries shooting isn't going to draw defenders out, Wall will still rack up plenty of assists by hitting him in the PnP

Even tho he's efficient, it's still a crappy shot. Glad he makes it at a high level... it's fine as a bailout shot when the shot clock is running down, but it's not a winner. His TS% is still below .500 on that shot and he's relatively a low usage player. Teams will be happy if were force feeding Hump for mid-range J's. We'd be playing right into what they'd want us to do.

A wide open midrange jumper from Humphries is one of the easier looks we can create in the offense, and it's a good shot for him. I don't see how it's not a 'winner' if it puts two points on the board. If teams are betting on him to miss, it's going to be a sneaky effective weapon for us because that gamble will trend towards Hump's favor.

Hunphries isn't necessarily going to transform our spacing, but if he's converting jumpers like he did when healthy last season, he's going to help us win games.

[thinker07]

What I've seen on the interwebs today and otherwise concluded is that Dudley was going to opt out of his contract and so he started to line up another team for free agency. He and his agent likely talked to the Wiz and there was mutual interest. All parties understood that surgery for Dudley was a real possibility. There likely was a joint decision to opt in and get a trade to the Wiz using our TPE. I think the Wiz understood 100% what Dudley's back situation was. He was a guy they wanted and he fit perfectly into the TPE and didn't cost anything in trade unless the Wiz finish with one of the 4 best records in the NBA. That was too good for EG to pass up even though he understood that Dudley would miss some of the start of the season.

In an interview today Dudley detailed how his injury wasn't likely too severe and that he expected to only miss a couple of games at the beginning of the season and probably not be able to play back-to-backs early in the season. His surgery was an outpatient deal that lasted about 15 minutes.

Maybe all of that calculation turns out badly, but the Wiz seem to have known EXACTLY what they were getting into.

[Induveca]

Our hopes now rest on a guy who has almost never shot threes under pressure making them? I can hit 4/10 NBA threes with zero pressure.

Humphries is not a bright bulb, for obvious reasons. Let's hope Oubre/Porter both step up this year.

[thinker07]

I think there are a number of avenues available for the Wiz to improve this year. First of all, even when we were winning games against weak teams in the early season - we mostly looked bad on offense. In fact we mostly looked bad on offense most of the season. There just weren't many long stretches of games or even within games when the offense just flowed. Last year there were lots of games that weren't as fun to watch win as 2 years ago were fun to watch lose. The offense looked bad a lot of the time last year.

It's true that Butler helped win some games in November and December and he's gone. BUT Beal was out for the start of the season and had to work himself into shape slowly. Have people forgotten that Temple was starting a bunch of those games? And that Webster was basically never available. So a bunch of the games that Butler helped win were games where Temple was playing significant minutes because there literally was no one else. I think the first player that we could have to replace the early Butler is a healthy Beal.

The second way to improve is to NEVER have Gortat and Nene on the floor at the same time. Gortat especially understood that all last year and that was a reason why he was frustrated so often. Recently in Poland Gortat talked about how unworkable that pairing had become. Spreading the floor actually helps Gortat more than any other player on the team. If we can mix and match with Hump, Gooden, Dudley into the season, maybe some Porter at the S4 then we can feature Gortat a lot more on the PnR and get better results than last year.

The third way to improve is that we will have several more 3pt shooters. Last year we had a less than full season of Beal, two months of Butler, Pierce and just a smidge of Gooden playing on the perimeter and a regressed Wall. This year one hopes to have a more confident Porter, Beal, most of a season of Dudley, Neal, a lot more than a smidge of Gooden, and Anderson AND maybe a bounce back year for Wall more like two years ago. Many of those players have flaws but that's a lot more shooting. AND maybe even something from Oubre - who knows? If we add those shooters to a more open offense -- we could actually do much better.

Finally better depth and hopefully health leads to a better second unit that can run and take better advantage of Sessions skills than last year's bench could take advantage of Dre's skills.

[nate33]

I combined the original Dudley thread with the Back Surgery thread.