Chuck Texas & PMOTT3's Early Off-Season Review: New York Knicks

[Hawk Eye]

Chuck Texas Review

Losses:

Bargnani
Tim Hardaway
Jason Smith
Shane Larkin
Quincy Acy
Cole Aldrich
Alexi Shved
Travis Wear

Nothing major really lost here at all.   

Draft:

Kristaps Porzingis
Jerian Grant
Hernangomez 

Maybe the best draft of any team.   I think Porzingis was the 3rd best prospect and has the highest ceiling in the draft.   Grant is a guy with a reasonably high floor who I think will be ready to play right away and Hernangomez is a very interesting long-term play.   Loved their draft.  There was lots of talk of trading down or out, but instead they stayed and made a great pick and then jumped back in to get Grant.   Loved it.

Trades:

Tim Hardaway Jr for rights to Grant
Kyle O'Quinn S&T for 2019 2nd round pick swap
Rights to Hernangomez for 2 future 2nds and cash

I like all these deals.   Grant for Hardaway feels like a heist.   The gamble on Hernangomez is worth taking, and a potential pick swap in the 2nd round in 4 years is a small price to pay to ensure the Magic didn't match the very reasonable deal to O'Quinn.

Free Agency:

Robin Lopez 4/$55ish
Afflalo 2/$16 with 2nd year PO
Derrick Williams 2/$9M with 2nd year PO
Kyle O'Quinn 4/$16M with 4th year PO
Lou Admundson and Lance Thomas each 1/$1.6M

And this is the peril of free agency.  You have tons of money and the best players choose to go elsewhere.   I like Robin Lopez but he's just a guy.  Afflalo is a nice affordable pick-up.  I'm stunned Derrick Williams got this money.  I still almost believe he can be something, but I really thought he would have to take less and I'm stunned he got the option and not the Knicks.   I'm not as high on O'Quinn as most.  I know we had multiple threads predicting what he'd make this summer and I was about the only guy saying under the MLE.   I actually thought he'd get a little less than this.   But I don't mind what feels like a slight overpay on a young big.   Deal could end up a huge bargain in a year or two.   Min guys are whatever.

Depth Chart(this is probably really rough)

Robin Lopez/Kyle O'Quinn/Lou Admundson
Kristaps Porzingis/Derrick Williams/Lance Thomas
Carmelo Anthony/Cleanthony Early
Aaron Afflalo/Ricky Ledo
Langston Galloway/Jose Calderon/Jerian Grant*

*I expect Jerian Grant to be higher in the rotation very soon.

Needs:

More high-end talent.   They need Kristaps to have a Dirk-like start to his career where he is very solid by year 2 and a star by year 3 to take advantage of Melo.   Right now they have a superstar, 2 decent starters, 2 below-average starters and nothing of note on the bench.  Need another wing body.  I know Lance Thomas can play some 3, but that's not a great option.

Additional Thoughts:

This season has to determine Melo's future in NY.  They have to decide if they can be good enough in the next year or two to take advantage of the end of his prime or they have to strongly consider seeing what's available for him.   Other than that I'm giving Kristaps a ton of minutes unless he just seems overwhelmed and I'm getting Jerian Grant involved because him being able to take the PG job by next season would help them a ton moving forward.   

Win-loss Prediction:  32-50

Melo being there all year is going to help, but this team still isn't very good.   Best case scenario they sneak into the bottom of the East playoff picture, but I just have a hard time seeing it.  This roster doesn't seem to complement Melo particularly well as it doesn't have a plethora of shooters or good defenders.    He is going to have to do a ton of heavy lifting and even then.


Off-Season Grade:  B

I loved the draft, liked the small trades they made, and they got decent value in FA.  I just don't love any of the guys they got and feel like they will be wanting to upgrade those positions by next year anyway.   I know its hard to fully rebuild in NY, but I would have rather seen them spend the year gathering assets.  Then maybe they could trade for a star next summer and use that star and Melo to lure a 3rd guy in FA.   So nothing terrible, but I feel like their moves in FA don't move them forward.  Still Porzingis and Grant are enough to earn a solid B from me.

PMOTT3 Review

Key Losses:

N/A

Other Losses:

THJ
Bargs
Shane Larkin
Quincy Acy
Jason Smith
Cole Aldrich
Alexi Shved
Travis Wear

nothing of significant importance here by any means.

Draft:

Kristaps Porzingis
Jerian Grant
Hernangomez

I'm not as high on Porzingis as Chuck but i didn't hate the pick. I would have taken Mudiay and Winslow before him but after that he's right in there with the rest of the prospects for me. The percentage of Euro busts drafted in the lottery really scares me though and i hope the kid can prove those numbers wrong.

Grant was a great pick up for them and only cost them THJ. I like him as the best PG prospect after Mudiay and Payne.

Dont know a lot about Hernangomez but regardless the Knicks had one of the best draft nights of any team. Added two great prospects to their team to develop at low costs. Nicely done.

Trades:

.THJ for Jerian Grant (#19)
.S&T O'Quinn for 19' 2nd pick swap
.Rights to Hernangomez for two future 2nds and cash

THJ for Grant was excellent. It was pretty widely agreed upon that THJ didn't have that kind of trade value and i think Phil got the best of Bud here.

The other two trades were low cost good moves as well. Overall they had one excellent trade and two average good ones, not bad at all.

Free Agency:

Robin Lopez
Aaron Afflalo
Derrick Williams
Kyle O'Quinn
Lou Amundson
Lance Thomas

I dont think this is the kind of off-season that the Knicks were hoping for. I like Lopez and think he's a good defensive minded center just not 4/$55 good. Afflalo came at a good price but he's been regressing defensively year after year and can be a bit of a ball stopper at times. I'm just not sure I love the fit.

I'm not sure how Derrick Williams just got that contract because i dont think he did anything last season to deserve 9-10 mil.

O'Quinn, Amundson, and Thomas all came cheap but are just end of the bench guys.

Current Depth Chart (rough):

PG: Galloway/Calderon/Grant
SG: Afflalo/Ledo
SF: Melo/Early
PF: Porzingis/Williams/Thomas
C: Lopez/O'Quinn/Amundson

Needs:

I think they need to decide what direction to go in. Re-build or win-now? Their draft suggests re-build but their free agency suggests win-now. Anyways, Chuck is right they need more high end talent. Porzingis could be that other star they need now but it wont be this season. The bench looks pretty bad at the moment as well.

Additional Thoughts:

I never expected the Knicks to get that big fish in FA but if the direction they want to go in is win-now then I would have liked to see them trade the #4 pick for that 2nd banana to compliment Melo. If Melo has a really good bounce-back season and the plan is to go rebuild then I'm looking to trade him for the best # of picks & prospects i can. When the cap explodes and everyone has cap space i think there will be a lot of contenders who will want Melo's services. That NTC is going to cause some problems though.

Win/Loss Prediction: 30-52

This team just doesn't have enough talent to help Melo right now and i think best case scenario is a 8 seed in the playoffs but 30 wins is much more realistic imo.

Off-Season Grade: C

They don't have their 1st for this year and look to be in a position where they will give up a good lotto pick. Lopez felt like a bit of an overpay but will definitely help. I dont like the rest of their FA and they have to compete because they dont have their pick this year to tank. If they didnt have such a good draft night then this grade would be much worse.

[buckboy]

I'd give them a B+ but I like Lopez and O'Quinn more than most. As a Bucks fan, I'd actually rather have those 2 than Monroe.

Also love Porzingis.

Not a Grant fan, and the Williams contract is laughable, so that brings my grade down a bit.

[Laimbeer]

B+

Generally a good free agent season, Grant trade was a steal and I can't see an obvious pick over Porzingis. The Williams signing was bad, but don't see much not to like.

The Knicks are like the Kings in that people just want to find something bad in their moves.

[loserX]

One of the blessings of being in a big market is that you know you've almost always got a shot at big names. One of the curses of being in a big market is that it's then expected of you. Extended tanks tend not to go over very well in cities like New York and LA.

I'm sure the Knicks went star-shopping this offseason, and it didn't work out. (As said elsewhere, a number of big markets came up pretty empty.) So they had to go to plan B.

They got the best prospect they could, added young pieces at positions of need, and spent just enough to put some complementary pieces around their current star. They're not going to the ECF but they're probably not going to suffer another 2014-15 embarrassment either.

I think they had a pretty good offseason, though I agree with literally everyone that the Derrick WIlliams contract made no sense.

For me, the biggest question is still one that doesn't seem to get asked much: can Derek Fisher actually coach? Just because Kidd stepped off the court and straight into an HC position doesn't mean that everyone can do it. We'll see how Fisher does this year with (hopefully) a more stable roster.

[bondom34]

Went B. Didn't like Zinger but he looked good in SL, they struck out but didn't over pay other than Williams so nothing awful. They should be improved by default, but not a perfect offseason either.

[HartfordWhalers]

Chuck Texas Review
I think Porzingis was the 3rd best prospect and has the highest ceiling in the draft.

Wondering who you had 2nd.

I gave NYK a B+. I think they will be better than expected, made smart long term moves and did everything right in their control, minus the Derrick Williams contract. Afflalo doesn't thrill me either, but that is more justifiable.

I felt like Philly blundered on value doing 35 for 2 distant 2nds until it came out that Philly also got 1.5m (enough for a pick around 45). After that, it felt like Philly maybe even got the edge on value, but I would have done it for NYK so no complaint there.

The TH Jr trade was a killing. Grant still wouldn't have been my pick, but more like 3rd-4th on the board at the time (Portis, Anderson) especially with the man the myth the legend -- Langston Galloway. If you are looking at the roster and thinking development 3rd pg behind Calderon, why not spin the dice on Tyus Jones even?

Liked the Porzingis pick, but would have been pretty happy with Mudiay at 4 as well.

Lopez was a great stabilizer next to Melo.

Altogether a B+.

[cammac]

Good draft
Poor picking in free agency
B-

[Trader_Joe]

B

Struck out in the big names but got some of the best tier2/3 players.
Liked the Porzingis pick a lot and most their FA signings other than D.Williams...who I think is worth the risk but not at that price.

They should be in the PO mix but expect them to fall short with about 35 wins.

[Dukenukem23]

I'm not a.knick fan in any way, but after this offseason I may start. Phil has done a great job clearing the decks and now adding young talent. He hit a home run in the draft A+++++ there and maybe a B in free agency. Can't really blame him for that one either because the knicks just didn't have the talent and reputation to attract the major players.

I like what he's doing right notwithstanding collecting young assets and developing them. Hopefully they can build on what they have and sign some major contributora in the next two years.

Great job PJ, your not overrated in my book
A+

[DanishLakerFan]

I like their offseason and while i would have taken Winslow ahead of Porzingiz i do think it's a solid pick. Grant is a nice and ready prospect as well. I really liked their additions as well - all quality role players at less than market price, so that's good.

Porzingiz, Melo and Williams all can play the 3 and 4, so i think they'll switch back and forth between those positions and they're now solidified at the 5 with Lopez and O'Quinn. The objective, i suppose, is to be open to trades that can improve their back-court and next summer they will have a lot of money to spend as well.

Playoffs? Probably not, but depending on how well Melo plays they could surprise.

Grade: B
Why? The went with the BPA at 4th and gave up nothing basically for Grant. All their FA additions were cheap and productive guys.

[giberish]

I really liked their draft (including draft-related trades). My only concern would be with Porzingis and the NY fans and media. Young rookies are almost never good - even ones who become very good players down the road - but I sense that NY fans expect an immediate 2nd star with their pick. When Porzingis doesn't live up to those unrealistic standards (for a young rookie) he'll get turned on extra hard as a 'Euro stiff'. He'll need a strong ego to deal with it.

I'm way lower on their FA moves. First it has to be disappointing when you can't even sign Monroe ahead of Milwaulkee. Lopez is fine as a 5th starter, but $14M/yr is very steep for a 5th starter. They could have gotten the same quality player for $5M/yr less with Koufos and had enough to easily add Biyombo as a backup.

Afflalo is a bigger issue. He's a bad defender, so even if he recovers on offense from last year he has limited on-court value and if he doesn't then he's got no on-court value. Granted the FA market at SG was pretty bleak outside of RFA's who weren't really available, but there were still better options. Monta provides more value as a secondary offense-creator and is less bad on D than Afflalo. Granted he was a bit more expensive but that's not a problem if you just don't sign Williams. Even some weak trade options - Henderson, Stevenson would have been better.

[Prospect Dong]

I've just realised that this Williams contract reminds me of the deals Darko kept getting even after he had proven that it was never going to click for him. Darko got a lot more than this, but Darko was 7 feet tall...

[Mr. E]

I'm also going with a B for this offseason.

I loved their draft and for the most part their deals are reasonable. They were not going to transform into a world-beater this summer, so the took the more patient route towards building.

[Golabki]

Unfortunately Phil Jackson has looked competent.

The team still isn't great, but Melo + shooters = top 10 offense, and they have the shooters now. They won't stop anyone (I'd guess bottom 5 defense), so they'll be below average, probably in the 30s.