Chuck Texas & PMOTT3's Early Off-Season Review: Orlando Magic

[Hawk Eye]

Chuck Texas Review

Losses:

Kyle O'Quinn
Mo Harkless
Luke Ridnour
Ben Gordon
Borrego(coach)

Nothing of importance lost at all

Draft:

Mario Hezonja
Tyler Harvey

I'm okay with the Hezonja pick.   He was good value and he fits their roster as well as anyone on the board does.   Wish Porzingis would have fell to them, but Mario is a good pick.

Trades:

Mo Harkless for a conditional 2nd
S&T O'Quinn for a 2nd
2nd for Shabazz Napier
Luke Ridnour for rights to Timma

These are fine.  Neither guy in their plans so build some goodwill by doing other teams a solid.  Napier isn't a bad guy to have as kind of a spark plug 3rd PG.

Free Agency:

Tobias Harris 4/$64M
CJ Watson 3/$15M
Jason Smith 1/$4M

Tobias Harris feels gross, but obviously that was the marketplace.  Orlando not really in a place to just let an asset walk, but I would have been tempted to let him go at that price.   Watson and Smith are nice vets who can play a key role off the bench for you while being able to handle nights where they don't get off the bench if Skiles wants to play the kids.

Depth Chart(really rough):

Payton/Watson/Napier
Oladipo/Fournier/Marble
Tobias Harris/Hezonja/
Gordon/Smith/Nicholson
Vucevic/Frye/Dedmon

Needs:

They need their youth to develop.  Payton was pretty good last year.  He needs to take another step.  Dipo needs to take another step.  Gordon and Hezonja need to come through.     They need a 4 to play next to Vucevic.  Something about Vuc/Gordon/Harris just doesn't seem to fit right.    Skiles needs to give this team an identity.

Additional thoughts:

The Magic are one of the teams with the assets to really move on a star should one become available in trade.   I'd like to see them keep sniffing around Boogie.   And maybe see if Melo becomes available.   Orlando is a city that has been popular with big time players in the past, he might waive the NTC if they showed promise.   

If no star is available then just play the kids a ton and figure out who can play and who fits what Skiles is doing and start getting value for the other guys while its high.  Don't wait too long and devalue the assets.

Win/Loss Prediction: 34-48

Skiles should be worth 5 or 6 wins himself plus most of their core should be improved.  If someone makes a big jump they could approach .500.  If players stagnate they could again have a top 5 pick.   Still at least a year away from the playoffs if they don't make a big move.

Off-Season Grade:  B

Hezonja was a good pick.  Smith and Watson are sensible vets to mix in with all the youth.  Still not sure I love the Harris deal tho I think they had to keep him.   Nothing great, but no mistakes.   I don't love Skiles as a coach, but I do think he's very solid and he will definitely make the team better particularly in defense and how hard they play.  The Magic will be a team the best teams hate playing.  You probably come away with a win, but nothing will be given to you.

PMOTT3 Review

Key Losses:

N/A

Other Losses:

Kyle O'Quinn
Mo Harkless
Luke Ridinour
Ben Gordon
Head Coach (Borrego)

Nothing of significant importance here. Although it felt like they sold Harkless a little short.

Draft:

Mario Hezonja
Tyler Harvey

I would have preferred Winslow but Hezonja would have been my 2nd option at #5 with who was available and i also like the fit. Harvey feels like a good swing for the fences type of pick in the 2nd round as well.

Trades:

.Mo Harkless for 2nd
.Ridinour for TPE
.O'Quinn S&T for 2nd
.Protected 2nd for Shabazz Napier

Kinda meh on their trades this off-season. Nothing horrible but nothing great. I may be higher on Napier than I should because i felt like that was a pretty lop-sided trade. Basically got him for free.

Free Agency:

Tobias Harris
CJ Watson
Jason Smith

Never been big on Tobias and the money seems like a clear overpay to me. But he's still only 22-23? So there's still plenty of room/time for him to live up to that contract.

Watson and Smith are solid vets who can actually still get up and down the court and mentor the young kids.

Current Depth Chart (rough):

PG: Payton/Watson/Napier
SG: Oladipo/Fournier/Marble
SF: Harris/Hezonja
PF: Gordon/Smith/Nicholson
C: Vucevic/Frye/Dedmon

Needs:

I'm really unsure about all the fits here. I still dont know if the plan is to make Gordon a 3 or 4. Also not sure if Hezonja is a 2 or 3? They need to find out all the fits and figure out which young guys to keep and which ones to sell off for assets & future value. Skiles certainly has his work cut out for him. Outside of the young kids needing to take another step, i dont see a whole lot.

Additional Thoughts:

Totally agree with Chuck here. Orlando has a lot of nice pieces to make available via trade for a big time star. They made a really strong push for Millsap and almost had him. Had they got him, i would have been on the phones immediately looking to sell off some of my young talent to form a big 3 of Vucevic/Millsap/star player X.

There's also nothing wrong with developing young talent as long as one of them takes the next step and becomes a real all-star go to option. Right now i see a bunch of young guys with the potential to talk that leap but none that really have. Oladipo might become that guy this season though.

Win/Loss Prediction: 34-48

I dont see a playoff appearance but i definitely expect a 30 win season at the minimum. Looking forward to seeing how Skiles works with all these young guys.

Off-Season Grade: B

Nice draft, picked up good vets in FA, didn't love the Tobias deal and also not sure if he's in the long term plans. Pretty meh trades with the exception of the Napier deal. I'm taking the wait and see approach with Skiles. Nothing spectacular this off-season but nothing awful either.

[loserX]

Like the Hezonja pick a lot (I had them picking Porzingis but the Knicks ruined that!). He won't start but there are plenty of wing minutes for him.

The Skiles hire is intriguing. He'll tighten up that defence, and as a former PG himself I'll be interested to see how Payton in particular develops under him. There's all kinds of shooting off the bench but almost none in the starting lineup so we'll see if Skiles is flexible enough to maximize the results.

The Napier trade was good and the rest don't matter much. I have always liked Jason Smith a lot but $4M? That's more than O'Quinn is going to make next year! This feels like Ben Gordon all over again; hopefully Smith can contribute a little more.

[Devilzsidewalk]

C+
Hezonja has intriguing talent, but euro swingmen is a risky proposition. Would've gone Stanley Johnson myself. Losing O'Quinn for such a reasonable contract seems like an unnecessary loss.

[HartfordWhalers]

Everyone loves Mario. A-

[buckboy]

C+. Meh.

Would've kept O'Quinn at his $ over Harris at his $.

Hezonja-yeah whatever. Fine. Everyone between 4 & 10 were similar to me (except WCS-yuck).

Orlando has spent a lot of time sucking and has basically nothing to show for it. Where does the tank stop?

[tiderulz]

C+. Meh.

Would've kept O'Quinn at his $ over Harris at his $.

Hezonja-yeah whatever. Fine. Everyone between 4 & 10 were similar to me (except WCS-yuck).

Orlando has spent a lot of time sucking and has basically nothing to show for it. Where does the tank stop?

have arguably a top-6 SG, Gordon is developing (2nd youngest player last year). tank has stopped now.

OQuinn is a bench big who fouls a lot. Good role player, decent passer, but we've seen his top end. Everyone wants to rip Harris, but the kid just turned 23 and is a good player. Skiles will have this team fighting for the playoffs next year.

you saw we spent a lot of time sucking. we have been bad for just 3 years, and that is after losing a HOF caliber player. did you think the team would bounce right back? Look at Cleveland for a close example, how long were they down before winning again?

[tiderulz]

I'm really unsure about all the fits here. I still dont know if the plan is to make Gordon a 3 or 4. Also not sure if Hezonja is a 2 or 3? They need to find out all the fits and figure out which young guys to keep and which ones to sell off for assets & future value. Skiles certainly has his work cut out for him. Outside of the young kids needing to take another step, i dont see a whole lot.

The NBA heading towards positionless ball a lot of the time. I think they see trotting Harris/Gordon out there and sticking Gordon on the bigger offensive threat. When lineups have Hezonja/Harris/Gordon, you have 3 players 6'8 that can move around a lot.

The Magic are one of the teams with the assets to really move on a star should one become available in trade. I'd like to see them keep sniffing around Boogie. And maybe see if Melo becomes available. Orlando is a city that has been popular with big time players in the past, he might waive the NTC if they showed promise.

ugh, i threw up in my mouth some. I want nothing to do with Melo at 31 with 4 more huge pay years due to him.

[tiderulz]

C+
Hezonja has intriguing talent, but euro swingmen is a risky proposition. Would've gone Stanley Johnson myself. Losing O'Quinn for such a reasonable contract seems like an unnecessary loss.

we needed shooting and Hezonja was the best shooter in the draft.

[stitches]

I loved their draft, I didn't love letting O'Quinn's go, if he could have been had for what NYK gave him. I would have kept him in their place. Other than that, nothing spectacular and nothing really bad. B

[tiderulz]

I loved their draft, I didn't love letting O'Quinn's go, if he could have been had for what NYK gave him. I would have kept him in their place. Other than that, nothing spectacular and nothing really bad. B

we have his replacement in Dedmon at less than $1mil/yr. With Gordon playing PFish, Frye to expensive too completely sit, Vuc and Dedmon, OQuinn was the odd man out.

[Hawk Eye]

@tiderulz

Just out of curiosity, how do you think your team did this off-season and what grade would you give them?

[tiderulz]

@tiderulz

Just out of curiosity, how do you think your team did this off-season and what grade would you give them?

i would say a B-/C+

I would have liked to have gotten Millsap, i think Harris could have learned a lot from him.

the team right now has young talent, just needs to develop to see truly how high end that talent is. I dont personally believe we have a superstar on the roster, but you never know who could develop. I liked the move for CJ, but is injury history worries a little. The pick up of Napier for basically nothing as a 3rd PG was a very good move imo.

OQuinn was a good role player, but just got lost in the shuffle behind Vuc/Dedmon/Gordon/Frye. Smith is another body but only for 1 year, so no real hurt.

I like Hezonja, i wonder if he could actually play SG (word is he is at 6'9 in shoes). I like Skiles as a coach. He has turned around multiple teams and will bring defensive discipline to the players.

[buckboy]

C+. Meh.

Would've kept O'Quinn at his $ over Harris at his $.

Hezonja-yeah whatever. Fine. Everyone between 4 & 10 were similar to me (except WCS-yuck).

Orlando has spent a lot of time sucking and has basically nothing to show for it. Where does the tank stop?

have arguably a top-6 SG, Gordon is developing (2nd youngest player last year). tank has stopped now.

OQuinn is a bench big who fouls a lot. Good role player, decent passer, but we've seen his top end. Everyone wants to rip Harris, but the kid just turned 23 and is a good player. Skiles will have this team fighting for the playoffs next year.

you saw we spent a lot of time sucking. we have been bad for just 3 years, and that is after losing a HOF caliber player. did you think the team would bounce right back? Look at Cleveland for a close example, how long were they down before winning again?

Seems longer I guess. They may be fighting for the playoffs but only because the East sucks.
I like Harris. He's a good player who's paid like a really good player. Also like Oladipo and Vucevic, don't love em. Gordon, Payton & Hezonja are intriguing as well, I just don't see this team ever being great.

I'll defer to your knowledge of O'Quinn. You've obvioulsy seen him more than I have. Just a guy I always liked from afar.

And Skiles will be good this year and next, but overall he'll be a detriment to the development of the team. Same as always.

[A BETTER DJ]

I also give our team a B.
If we could have pulled off signing Milsap I would have given an A.

We upgraded or backup PG significantly with CJ, got a decent 3rd stringer, and picked up a better shooter in Smith vs O'Quinn.

IMO Mario is the most NBA ready player from the draft and the logical pick. He has been playing professional ball with grown men for 5 years. He's got a great shot and he also surprised me in his 2 games in the SL with his passing and defense. I think he'll be starting before the season is over. If all our returning young ones step up their games a bit I can see us hitting .500 under Skiles and getting in to the 1st round. We have a lot of possible lineups that we can tinker with depending on match-ups and I can see a scoring lineup of CJ, Fournier, Mario, Harris, and Vuc being very difficult to stop. I think we'll see a huge improvement in AG.

I'm very glad the Knicks took Porzingis because I was afraid that we would take him. He is a great shooter but looks so breakable. I don't know how many times he'll be able to stand in front of stronger PFs and the LeBron freight train coming at him! I think he'll spend a lot of time on his butt.

[tiderulz]

And Skiles will be good this year and next, but overall he'll be a detriment to the development of the team. Same as always.

i wonder about this too. He has to have heard and seen this. And im sure Hennigan asked about this too. He was asked point blank, and said after time away, he recognized things that he has to change. it will be interesting to see if he has or not. At worse, the team will be better schooled at defense for the next coach

[buckboy]

And Skiles will be good this year and next, but overall he'll be a detriment to the development of the team. Same as always.

i wonder about this too. He has to have heard and seen this. And im sure Hennigan asked about this too. He was asked point blank, and said after time away, he recognized things that he has to change. it will be interesting to see if he has or not. At worse, the team will be better schooled at defense for the next coach

I hope he's changed because he's a very talented coach. He will do wonders for your defense that's for sure. And it'll be an enjoyable ride for the 2 years he has the players, assuming he hasn't fixed anything.

[Kings2013]

It's becoming an interesting looking team. I liked the Skiles hire, he seems to squeeze what he has out of available talent. Mario wasn't a bad pick. I like the talent but still question Vuc's fit long term.

[Laimbeer]

Tone of the thread seems right. B- for me. They basically stood pat, but I really like the Hezonja pick. Gives them some much needed shooting and the swagger is a bonus, IMO.

[Gomagic44]

Tone of the thread seems right. B- for me. They basically stood pat, but I really like the Hezonja pick. Gives them some much needed shooting and the swagger is a bonus, IMO.

Agreed, b-. Wish we had gotten Millsap. I liked the miles signing. I like Skiles. I like Mario and wanted him in part because of the swagger. I didn't mind letting oquinn go. He fouled too much and wasn't that good last year or the year before. Hope he does well in New York. Great attitude.

Tanking is done. I think we shoot for 7-8 this year. I think poor coaching held us back in a bad way last year.


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[giberish]

I'm lower on Orlando's young players than most, and as such I would have preferred to see a more dymanic offseason (though it does stand to reason that the GM who built the team is higher on it than I am). I see Harris as a Jeff Green quality combo forward - who's a liability at $16M/yr, not an asset. Hezonja looks ok, I had him behind Muliday - but a teams with Payton didn't make sense drafting Muliday - and outside of a few WTF moves draft picks are tough to rate.

My issues with Orlando are that I just see a low upside to this core. Outside of the very young Hezonja and Gordon (who both could be almost anything at this point) I don't see anyone who could be a top-3 player on a good team. There's a bunch of lower tier starters and solid bench guys that with solid depth could easily get to .500 or so in the next 2-4 years but then it'll just be an expensive mediocre team.

Also, I don't see 5-man lineup options that both have enough shooting to work on offense and can play credible defense. They can load up offense-first lineups that can't stop anyone or solid defensive units that only have 1 or 2 credible 3-point threats but I don't see any lineups that won't be bad on one side of the ball.