Zach Lowe Strikes Again - Extensionville

Cheeze · Post #1 » by **Cheeze** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 8:05 pm

Zach Lowe has a piece up on Grantland that takes a good look at the upcoming cap explosion and how those from the 2012 draft class may exploit the new dynamic.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/welcome-to-extensionville-the-nbas-next-big-money-community/

Liver_Pooty · Post #2 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 8:22 pm

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist: Charlotte has more financial flexibility going forward, and the market for defense-first guys with shaky jumpers can be cooler than expected. Kidd-Gilchrist developed into a serviceable midrange shooter last season, but knocking down 37 percent of wide-open long 2s doesn’t outweigh the harm defenses inflict on Charlotte’s spacing by granting those looks. Kidd-Gilchrist offsets some of the damage with smart cuts, daring offensive rebounds, and breakneck rim runs in transition, but he’s a hard piece to build around. I’m intrigued by the idea of Kidd-Gilchrist seeing more time at power forward, but Charlotte has too many rotation bigs right now for that to be a big rotation feature.

Kidd-Gilchrist will steal your soul on defense, but that alone hasn’t been enough to score max money for a wing player. The two sides might be able to hammer something out before Halloween.

Jeremy Lamb: Lamb flamed out in Oklahoma City, but he’s going to get minutes for a team that badly needs his shooting. Charlotte also plans to let Lamb stretch himself as a ball handler. Minutes bring numbers, and numbers bring money, so the Hornets should at least see what it would take to preempt Lamb’s free agency. They might not reach a place that makes it worth Lamb’s while, and we’re saying that about a guy who has done basically nothing in the NBA. Welcome to the new salary-cap world.

joyeuxnoel · Post #3 » by **joyeuxnoel** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 9:45 pm

how do you guys see MKG's potential? I've always been a big fan of him, been watching him since he played in NJ in high school.

i see him as good as a prime Iggy or better in a couple years without the need to chuck shots but not as good as a point forward.

elite perimeter D, not horrid shooter, decent playmaker, great finisher. a good 2nd option, an elite 3rd option

Braggins · Post #4 » by **Braggins** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 10:14 pm

I kind of get the feeling that given the circumstances MKG won't really hold out too hard for tons of money. I think he'll handle the contract situation similar to Kemba and work with the team to come up with a fair deal. He probably knows he could squeeze more out of us by holding out but he probably also knows that he doesn't have tons of leverage given his offensive limitations and will probably just look to get the contract situation out of the way so he can focus on his game and the team. I think he'll get something around 15 mil a year and everyone will be happy.

I have no idea whats going to happen with Lamb, but if we could lock him up for a few years on the cheap it might be a good idea. Its hard to say what he should get for an extension without seeing him play in real games, but if the coaching staff and scouting department is confident he'll be a mainstay in our rotation and he seems to be dedicated to the team I would probably feel fine with giving him 6-8 mil a year for 2-3 years to prevent us from having to pay him something absurd if he establishes himself as an up and coming SG.

I will say that one potentially big benefit of going after high character guys is that we wont have to worry about grossly overpaying anyone to satisfy their ego.

MasterIchiro · Post #5 » by **MasterIchiro** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 10:27 pm

I'm interested in dealing him and cite the cool market Lowe mentions. It's cool for good reason. I don't think he fits here.

Braggins · Post #6 » by **Braggins** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 11:03 pm

Keep dreaming Ichrio. Hes only a bad fit for Alfense, and everyone agrees that is the last thing we should be doing. Hopefully we play small a lot and/or we just ditch Al so you'll get your wish of a lineup with 4 shooters and we keep MKG. Also opens up more time for Lin and Lamb. Everyone wins.

tondi123 · Post #7 » by **tondi123** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 11:10 pm

It would be nice to see MKG being underrated actually help us get him on a reasonable deal.

Flip Murray · Post #8 » by **Flip Murray** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 1:10 am

kid has won at every level. It's a proven fact Charlotte is better when he plays. I think we should keep him and I hope he's underrated so we get a steal.

HornetJail · Post #9 » by **HornetJail** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 1:11 am

MasterIchiro wrote:I'm interested in dealing him and cite the cool market Lowe mentions. It's cool for good reason. I don't think he fits here.

We won like 20% of our games when he was injured and were above .500 when he wasn't. If he doesn't fit here, he's a good enough talent that we should build around him and get players that suit him. MKG is going nowhere despite how badly you want to trade him for Evan Turner.

HornetJail · Post #10 » by **HornetJail** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 1:11 am

tondi123 wrote:It would be nice to see MKG being underrated actually help us get him on a reasonable deal.

Bismack stayed underrated and look how that worked out for us.

But yeah I'm optimistic about MKG staying here.

Liver_Pooty · Post #11 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 1:49 am

Offer him 13 million per over 4 years and move on.

RollingWave · Post #12 » by **RollingWave** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 2:05 am

The Hornets can't extend right now.you can't do what Denver did without being under the cap.

he's gonna reach RFA for sure unless the Hornets simply floor him with a huge deal right at the start of FA next year... which they probably should do.

Because not only is the cap going to jump like crazy next year, it'll jump even bigger leap the year after and after that it'll be a new CBA.

one should understand that a 15m per in a few years is more like a 10m per right now. (similar portions of the cap.)

As I've argued , MKG is very valuable, breaking down his RPM shows that pretty much the entire Hornet's great defense last couple years relies very heavily on him being an elite wing defender. he does do some damage to the offense but that's not as big as you'd think and may be addressed by either skill development or simply better offensive system in general.

Lowe is correct that a player in his mold may not get paid as much as you think though, Tony Allen is probably the most obvious example, but MKG clearly show some offensive capacity on offense unlike Allen.

Yeah, open long 2s at 37% don't do much, but what if it's open 3s at 35%? study shows that in most cases if a guy can hit long twos at a reasonable rate chances are he's going to hit 3s at only slightly worse rate anyway.

LofJ · Post #13 » by **LofJ** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 2:10 am

Carroll set the market this offseason. And in another year or two MKG will be better than Carroll ever was or will be. I'd offer him 5 years 80 million with a player option on the last year this offseason because I think he will get better offers if we wait till restricted free agency. MKG hitting corner 3's this season is going to open up a lot of eyes and allow more people to see how good he is so many facets of the game.

Cheeze · Post #14 » by **Cheeze** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 3:09 am

The Hornets are in a tough position with MKG and Batum, and to a lesser extent Al Jefferson. The new cap space will create quite a cash orgy next summer. It wont be easy. Batum may get $20M. That's a crap-ton of money. MKG may get $18M. It's Monopoly money at this point, but it's going to get real soon enough.

Should be a LOT of fun. Mean that.

Liver_Pooty · Post #15 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 3:15 am

Batum will get close to the max. MKG as well, although he shouldn't. This will be Jeffersons last season as a Hornet no matter how well he plays.

Mystical Apples · Post #16 » by **Mystical Apples** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 3:27 am

The fact he was over 40% from 18+ below the break 3 is a great thing for his development. But long 2's aren't smart and he needs to take the next step and sit at the left corner three. I think he'll take 100+ this year and even if he only hits 30-35% it's a better eFG% than long 2's and opens up the floor for teammates. MKG should be a taking corner threes or getting to the rim. Those are his 2 zones.

As an aside, other 3 D guys like Draymond Green, Ariza, Carroll added the three to their games. What's unique is watching their long 2 point shots evaporate - they don't take them anymore and neither should MKG

Post #17 » by **JDR720** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 5:13 am

MKG 15-18 million per year maybe.

Lamb, who knows. need to see if he is any good before we consider extending.

Liver_Pooty · Post #18 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 5:23 am

JDR720 wrote:MKG 15-18 million per year maybe.

Lamb, who knows. need to see if he is any good before we consider extending.

MKG at 18 million is ridiculous right now. If he has a great year perhaps, but hes not even close to that right now even wit hthe cap increase. 13 mill a year is right where he should be paid.

Not even concerned about Lamb. Hes done nothing in the NBA yet that deserves a significant contract.

Post #19 » by **yosemiteben** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 5:45 am

So LP would you rather let him walk? $18M is around like $4M below the max he'll be eligible to receive from other teams. I think someone will give him a max offer, but even if not, you're not in the ballgame at $13M.

Liver_Pooty · Post #20 » by **Liver_Pooty** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 6:01 am

yosemiteben wrote:So LP would you rather let him walk? $18M is around like $4M below the max he'll be eligible to receive from other teams. I think someone will give him a max offer, but even if not, you're not in the ballgame at $13M.

I'd never let him walk. Just stating what I think he's currently worth. We should, and will match regardless.