Official BKN-DAL-MIN pick watch Thread 2015-16 season

Banks2Pierce · Post #141 » by **Banks2Pierce** » Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:45 pm

I think Dallas could grab the 8 seed if Parsons and Matthews are at their peak for 70+ games. Also dealing with age concerns for Dirk and JJ Barea. Tend to think I rate Zaza and current Deron higher than most would. Justin Anderson being so physically mature may also make him one of the rooks that is decent. Just one of those players underperforming their peak outlook would put our pick in the sweet spot.

ConstableGeneva · Post #142 » by **ConstableGeneva** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 6:28 pm

No championship ring, no wedding ring either.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNNBA/status/626089207023464448[/tweet]

"Some of you have noticed a shift in our approach. You'll see a team that is younger and more athletic this season. Our approach has been more strategic. We're making all necessary moves to be set up well for the future.

"But one thing remains constant -- and make no mistake about it -- we're here to win, and we'll do whatever we can together with all of you rooting for us."

We're rooting for you to lose and lose BIG for the next three seasons at least. Then you can win all you want after.

rickrolled · Post #143 » by **rickrolled** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 6:36 pm

Dallas signed Jamil Wilson to a camp deal, and Jarrid Famous, Maurice Ndour to partially guaranteed 3 year deals. This year is also partially guaranteed. Maurice Ndour impressed at Vegas SL with the Knicks.

Post #144 » by **165bows** » Tue Jul 28, 2015 10:15 pm

ConstableGeneva wrote:No championship ring, no wedding ring either.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ESPNNBA/status/626089207023464448[/tweet]
"Some of you have noticed a shift in our approach. You'll see a team that is younger and more athletic this season. Our approach has been more strategic. We're making all necessary moves to be set up well for the future.

"But one thing remains constant -- and make no mistake about it -- we're here to win, and we'll do whatever we can together with all of you rooting for us."

We're rooting for you to lose and lose BIG for the next three seasons at least. Then you can win all you want after.

This team is not going to be good. Best free agents they will be in position for next year are the Brandon Jennings, Demar Derozan types next summer, and then they won't have all that much space after that. Wouldn't even surprise me if the best wing they can land is re-upping Joe Johnson. IMO they will be in that 'maybe they can make the playoffs if they do well' bracket at best all three years.

Edit - with the league trying to make a cap 'smoothing' scenario happen and getting rejected, somehow at the last minute this year's cap went up a good bit more than estimated. Good bet the opposite happens next year and it is surprisingly not quite as high as expected, and they creatively account their way a little closer to the answer they wanted anyway.

ballup · Post #145 » by **ballup** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:36 am

That Dallas defense is going to be atrocious. They could free fall into the bottom depths with that roster's questionable health.

Post #146 » by **165bows** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 11:53 am

NBAdraft.net 2016 mock:

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

I like what I've seen so far of Diello as an athletic big man but didn't know he was rated that high. This draft will turn out fine IMO.

Stadium5 · Post #147 » by **Stadium5** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:31 pm

165bows wrote:NBAdraft.net 2016 mock:

http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft

I like what I've seen so far of Diello as an athletic big man but didn't know he was rated that high. This draft will turn out fine IMO.

Yea its way to early for people to be deeming the 2016 class as weak. There's always someone who emerges...look at Embiid coming out of nowhere in 2014 or D'angelo this past year

Elrod is Back · Post #148 » by **Elrod is Back** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 1:41 pm

In the 2016 draft, it shapes up right now like the Cs will have two lottery picks, one mid-first rounder, three picks at the top of the 2nd round (31-40) and two low 2nd rounders. 8 total.

Obviously there will be trades--including the possibility of trading 2016 picks for picks in later drafts--and possibly some Euro picks.

For those of us who come to RealGM because we enjoy watching a great GM build a team, the next year will be engrossing and enjoyable. Danny has got a proverbial war-chest of picks to play with that few GMs have ever enjoyed. It should be fun.

Post #149 » by **165bows** » Wed Jul 29, 2015 2:13 pm

@nbadraftblog: Watching film on the 1st group of seniors I’ll be writing about for 2016 and big thing that sticks out already is a lot of high IQ guys

rickrolled · Post #150 » by **rickrolled** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:39 am

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/626526130082869248[/tweet]
Updated Minnesota roster:

Ricky Rubio
Nikola Pekovic
Kevin Martin
Anthony Bennett
Andrew Wiggins
Zach LaVine
Shabazz Muhammad
Adreian Payne
Gorgui Dieng
Lorenzo Brown
Karl Anthony Towns Jr
Tyus Jones
Nemanja Bjelica
Kevin Garnett
Damjan Rudez
Andre Miller

Post #151 » by **ParticleMan** » Thu Jul 30, 2015 9:51 am

that helps us. dre can still play a bit, he is a great mentor for their young pgs. a lot would have to go right but it's not completely crazy they could fall out of the top 12 draft picks.

ConstableGeneva · Post #152 » by **ConstableGeneva** » Sat Aug 1, 2015 4:23 pm

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/627512593683456004[/tweet]

Coach and GM Flip Saunders let Kevin Garnett do the talking on a recent interview with Grantland's Zach Lowe: "Here's what KG told our players: If you're coming to camp on Sept. 29, and you're coming with the idea that we're not going to make the playoffs, don't even bother coming in."

Yes, KG, please drive that playoffs bandwagon. Drive it hard. Celtics Nation would be most grateful.

Post #153 » by **165bows** » Tue Aug 4, 2015 3:35 pm

Earl Clark, the most pricey of the Nets' non-guaranteed guys gets the boot. Per WT.

Amazing how many of the Nets pickups this offseason came from last year's bottom feeders, Bargnani, Ellington, Robinson, Larkin.

Post #154 » by **SmartWentCrazy** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 11:11 am

I think these picks, regardless of where they land, will have immense value next year. With role players commanding 8-12M a year, and good players getting 14-18M, the ability to lock up average-to-good talent on a rookie scale contract becomes the best value out there. It will be essential for creating a multiple star team.

The trade value for picks bottomed out this past year, but I'd definitely forecast it rising heavily in the near future. The Celtics are sitting pretty with their stash of picks in the upcoming years.

LongTimeFan · Post #155 » by **LongTimeFan** » Wed Aug 5, 2015 10:03 pm

The Celtics have improved off season. That alone will make next year enjoyable. We should win more games.

And there are three more teams we can get satisfaction form their losing or winning just the right amount. It isn't that we have outsourced our tanking. We have outsourced our rebuild. Our draft position is really no longer a function of how well we do.

Post #156 » by **165bows** » Thu Aug 6, 2015 3:20 pm

@VJL_bball: Wolves have 8 players who finished worse than 400th in D-RPM last season, along with 3 rooks who should all be expected to flounder on D.

Nope, Wolves pick isn't going to be a first rounder next year.

Post #157 » by **Slartibartfast** » Thu Aug 6, 2015 4:55 pm

165bows wrote:
@VJL_bball: Wolves have 8 players who finished worse than 400th in D-RPM last season, along with 3 rooks who should all be expected to flounder on D.

Nope, Wolves pick isn't going to be a first rounder next year.

LaVine is a Bargnani level tanking asset. As long as he's vacuuming minutes, they are going to struggle to win games.

But how cool would it be if they could pull a turnaround like Phoenix in 13/14. I remember most had written off the Morris twins as the Graham twins redux. They had Frye coming off missing an entire season and he wasn't ever that great. Miles Plumlee was just a nobody throw in. Gerald Green looked like garbage the year before. PJ Tucker couldn't shoot. They only got half a season of Bledsoe (and lost a pretty good player in Jared Dudley to get him). They also had lost Gortat.

There is some reason for optimism.

Rubio is a very good player when healthy. KG is still one of the better defensive players in the league and I expect him to play a good 24mpg. They've got the Euroleague MVP (a point forward with 3-point range) coming over to fill in a 4 position that was absolutely terrible last year - they had half a season of career-worst Thad followed by an overdose of Bennett, Payne and Robbie Hummel.

Pekovic is a good player when healthy. Martin can still score. Shabazz is a nice bench scorer. Wiggins could take a Durant-esque 2nd year leap. Tyus Jones and Andre Miller could keep LaVine in a less toxic, Gerald Green back-up gunner role (as opposed to the trainwreck PG he was last year). Dieng is a decent back-up big and along with KG, Bjelica and Towns will keep Payne and Bennett off the floor even if Pek stays as injured as ever.

Their big issue is defense on the wing. Martin/LaVine/Shabazz are all awful. It's all on Wiggins to develop into the defensive stud he can be. Moving one of their scoring wings for a good wing defender would do a lot of them.

Post #158 » by **Slartibartfast** » Thu Aug 6, 2015 5:31 pm

So absolute best case scenario draftwise is #1 (BK), #2 (us after barely missing the playoffs and jumping in the lotto), #8 from Dallas and #13 from Minny.

I will now be disappointed if we get anything less than this.

Post #159 » by **165bows** » Thu Aug 6, 2015 6:30 pm

Slartibartfast wrote:
165bows wrote:
@VJL_bball: Wolves have 8 players who finished worse than 400th in D-RPM last season, along with 3 rooks who should all be expected to flounder on D.

Nope, Wolves pick isn't going to be a first rounder next year.

LaVine is a Bargnani level tanking asset. As long as he's vacuuming minutes, they are going to struggle to win games.

Agree, I think it was Vashro and one of the other stat models who had him as the most unhelpful player towards winning games in the entire league last year. I think it was Ed Isaacson then tweeted he'd be the first to be the NBA slam dunk champ and then win the D-League slam dunk contest lol. The other thing is the coaching, all of the stat guys kill Flip for his long-two heavy offense, and telling his team not to contest the three point line on D.

It would be great but I just don't see it. No one saw the Phoenix thing coming either but not hopeful lol.

Thing is good bet the BRK pick is 6-12 and Dallas is 10-14, an area they were about to sell the farm to get into this year.

Speaking of Bargnani, how did the Knicks send out an eventual lotto pick for that guy? Holy cow that is a god awful trade. Makes me hope they trade for Melo or just do something, like anything, with NY. A lotto pick for Bargnani, and pretty much gave away Tyson Chandler for free. I don't play poker but let me know if they are having a company game night.

Post #160 » by **Slartibartfast** » Thu Aug 6, 2015 7:04 pm

165bows wrote:
Slartibartfast wrote:
165bows wrote:Nope, Wolves pick isn't going to be a first rounder next year.

LaVine is a Bargnani level tanking asset. As long as he's vacuuming minutes, they are going to struggle to win games.

Agree, I think it was Vashro and one of the other stat models who had him as the most unhelpful player towards winning games in the entire league last year. I think it was Ed Isaacson then tweeted he'd be the first to be the NBA slam dunk champ and then win the D-League slam dunk contest lol. The other thing is the coaching, all of the stat guys kill Flip for his long-two heavy offense, and telling his team not to contest the three point line on D.

It would be great but I just don't see it. No one saw the Phoenix thing coming either but not hopeful lol.

Thing is good bet the BRK pick is 6-12 and Dallas is 10-14, an area they were about to sell the farm to get into this year.

In Flip's defense, his approach didn't get in the way of Detroit being pretty dominant on both ends when their core was intact. I think the addition of a stretch 4 in Bjelica, a healthy K-Mart and some improvement in Wiggins FG% with Rubio back on board can put them into the middle of the pack offensively, and above average if Pekovic isn't totally broken.

Other than injuries, it's the wing D and depth that will break them. They desperately need to dump Bennett/Payne for a quality defensive wing who can boot LaVine to back of the rotation if he doesn't make dramatic improvements. A Martin/LaVine 2-guard rotation will destroy that team's already sketchy defensive integrity (Rubio and KG top-notch, but Wiggins still more potential than results and Bjelica/Pekovic/Towns all suspect).