Official BKN-DAL-MIN pick watch Thread 2015-16 season

[ConstableGeneva]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/629370126765199360[/tweet]
Hello, Ben Simmons.

[DK-All Day]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/629370126765199360[/tweet]
Hello, Ben Simmons.

I sort of feel bad for the Nets....

[165bows]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/629370126765199360[/tweet]
Hello, Ben Simmons.

I sort of feel bad for the Nets....

I thought pretty much all of that was smile-worthy lol.

Pelton, in ranking EC teams by tier, put Brooklyn and Philadelphia --and only them-- in the same category, "likely lottery." He suggests that any hope you have of the Nets matching their late season heroics come November is "a mirage."

The Nets' second-half surge was something of a mirage. While Brooklyn went 17-13 after adding Thaddeus Young, the team was outscored by 0.9 points per game. And that was with Deron Williams at point guard. The Nets outscored opponents by 1.6 points per 100 possessions with Williams on the court during the second half, per NBA.com/stats. Brooklyn was minus-6.0 points per 100 possessions after the break with replacement Jarrett Jack on the court. Gulp.

Doolittle is no more sanguine about the Nets' chances. He breaks each Eastern Conference roster into tiers: Elite, superstars, upper-tier starters, starters, second unit and deep reserves. Only Brook Lopez ranks in the top three categories, as an "upper tier starter." It's going to be awful, he argues.

The more I look at it, the more I think the Nets will be truly putrid this season.

Those two teams do have by far the worst PG rotations in the league. Maybe Utah is close now that Exum is out.

[Slartibartfast]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/629370126765199360[/tweet]
Hello, Ben Simmons.

I sort of feel bad for the Nets....

Not me.

Schadenfreude has never been so rational and delicious.

My favorite offseason hobby has been looking at the Nets players' RPM from last season on ESPN. Not a single above average starter. Brook ranked 32nd among centers, Thad 25th among PFs, JJ 19th among SFs, Bogdanovich 77th (!) among SGs, and Jack 70th among PGs. Their bench is of course worse. Larkin is one of the few PGs in the league worse than Jack (79th),T-Rob is 71st among PFs, Markel Brown is 71st among SGs, and, wait for it, Bargnani is dead last among centers (and by a healthy margin).

Their only respectable addition (other than their unknown rooks) is Wayne Ellington (28th among SGs).

Meanwhile check out their outgoings: D-Will (16th among PGs), Alan Anderson (22nd among SGs) and Teletovic and Jefferson (50-60 among PFs).

Put it all together and the Nets look like a 30-35 win team at best. An injury to Brook Lopez and they are starting the worst center in the league to go along with the worst PG rotation in the league and maybe the worst bench in the league.

Upside of 35 wins, downside of 15.

I'm stoked.

[Avalanche]

If we wound up with Ben I would celebrate like rarely ever seen before

[Crossy2008]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/629370126765199360[/tweet]
Hello, Ben Simmons.

I sort of feel bad for the Nets....

I am in the same boat. I mean ultimately I want them to be horrible, but I wish they would have had two good seasons directly after the trade so that they could at least mildly justify not having much of a chance to rebuild for a few seasons. If we can somehow build a core through their draft picks that is great for a decade, I think we may have a new fan base that will utterly dislike us. But it was ultimately their team's choice to trade essentially three unprotected firsts for two 35 year olds and a 37 year old.

[peachbucket]

If we wound up with Ben I would celebrate like rarely ever seen before

Jaylen Brown wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. There is definitely some serious talent up top...I think when people talk about weakness in 2016 they are talking more about depth.

[Avalanche]

If we wound up with Ben I would celebrate like rarely ever seen before

Jaylen Brown wouldn't be a bad consolation prize. There is definitely some serious talent up top...I think when people talk about weakness in 2016 they are talking more about depth.

Every year there seems to be a cut off of top talent

early on to me in '16 it seems like Simmons, Skal, Ingram, Brown... with Bender, Rabb etc wildcards to jump up into that tier

Ben's the man though, i'll be hoping the Nets fall apart and lottery luck falls our way this year much more than any other

[165bows]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/SBNationNBA/status/629370126765199360[/tweet]
Hello, Ben Simmons.

I sort of feel bad for the Nets....

Not me.

Schadenfreude has never been so rational and delicious.

My favorite offseason hobby has been looking at the Nets players' RPM from last season on ESPN. Not a single above average starter. Brook ranked 32nd among centers, Thad 25th among PFs, JJ 19th among SFs, Bogdanovich 77th (!) among SGs, and Jack 70th among PGs. Their bench is of course worse. Larkin is one of the few PGs in the league worse than Jack (79th),T-Rob is 71st among PFs, Markel Brown is 71st among SGs, and, wait for it, Bargnani is dead last among centers (and by a healthy margin).

Their only respectable addition (other than their unknown rooks) is Wayne Ellington (28th among SGs).

Meanwhile check out their outgoings: D-Will (16th among PGs), Alan Anderson (22nd among SGs) and Teletovic and Jefferson (50-60 among PFs).

Put it all together and the Nets look like a 30-35 win team at best. An injury to Brook Lopez and they are starting the worst center in the league to go along with the worst PG rotation in the league and maybe the worst bench in the league.

Upside of 35 wins, downside of 15.

I'm stoked.

Great summation there IMO. I'm not sure that Larkin is better than Pressey.

[ConstableGeneva]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/beatofbrooklyn/status/629712653045342208[/tweet]
Fact.

[SMTBSI]

I'm definitely enjoying the schadenfreude a bit, but BK isn't in my top 10 most hated teams across sports, so I don't feel a need to wish them buried in a pit of hopelessness for all times (frankly, I'd like them to be a little successful in horning in on the Knicks' "limelight"). I've been wondering if there might be ways to help us help them help us.

For example, and I'm sure this is entirely illegal and I can't be bothered to take the 60 seconds to look it up, but:

- If BK 2016 1st makes top three, we send them the DAL pick and a couple quality 2nds.
- If BK 2017 1st makes top three, we send them the MEM pick and a couple quality 2nds.
- If BK 2018 1st makes top three, we send them our 2018 1st and a couple quality 2nds.

At the end of three years, we've nabbed 2 or 3 top picks, and BK has done some decent work towards a reinvigoration of youth, which they have no real way to do as it stands now.

And really, the above scenario is conservative; you can pretty much send them every other pick we have in that timeframe if necessary. If we're getting several top-3 picks out of the deal while being consistently competitive ourselves, it's a huge win no matter how you slice it.


So, is there a version of that fantasy that's not entirely illegal, is the question...

[SMTBSI]

Just for the record, our 2016 picks, based on last year's standings, and SI's prediction of this year's:

Our 2016 picks:
1st: BRK, DAL(8-30), BOS
2nd: PHI, MIN, DAL/MEM+, MIA, CLE


Last Year:
#15 (BK)
#16 (BOS)
#21 (DAL)
#31 (MIN)
#33 (PHI)
#40 (MIA)
#51 (DAL/MEM+)
#54 (CLE)

SI:
#5 (BK)
#14 (DAL)
#20 (BOS)
#31 (PHI)
#32 (MIN)
#44 (DAL/MEM+)
#45 (MIA)
#53 (CLE)


Even if the best-case scenario doesn't come out, those top 5 are still pretty nice. Just got to find something to do with the other three; can't be picking 8 times; got to use them for something, or swap them out for farther-in-the-future 2nds. If we wait until the last second (ar ar), when everyone knows we need to move them, we'll either have to accept a losing trade, or we're going to be stashing a lot of guys (not the end of the world, I guess).

So absolute best case scenario draftwise is #1 (BK), #2 (us after barely missing the playoffs and jumping in the lotto), #8 from Dallas and #13 from Minny.

I will now be disappointed if we get anything less than this.

Taking it a step further:

#1 (BK) (leap from #5)
#2 (BOS) (leap from #14)
#8 (DAL)
#13 (MIN)
#31 (PHI)
#32 (MIA)
#33 (MEM)
#34 (CLE)

Yes, that's right: Miami, Memphis and Cleveland finish with 2nd, 3rd and 4th worst records. Got a problem???

[jordb2k7]

I'm definitely enjoying the schadenfreude a bit, but BK isn't in my top 10 most hated teams across sports, so I don't feel a need to wish them buried in a pit of hopelessness for all times (frankly, I'd like them to be a little successful in horning in on the Knicks' "limelight"). I've been wondering if there might be ways to help us help them help us.

For example, and I'm sure this is entirely illegal and I can't be bothered to take the 60 seconds to look it up, but:

- If BK 2016 1st makes top three, we send them the DAL pick and a couple quality 2nds.
- If BK 2017 1st makes top three, we send them the MEM pick and a couple quality 2nds.
- If BK 2018 1st makes top three, we send them our 2018 1st and a couple quality 2nds.

At the end of three years, we've nabbed 2 or 3 top picks, and BK has done some decent work towards a reinvigoration of youth, which they have no real way to do as it stands now.

And really, the above scenario is conservative; you can pretty much send them every other pick we have in that timeframe if necessary. If we're getting several top-3 picks out of the deal while being consistently competitive ourselves, it's a huge win no matter how you slice it.


So, is there a version of that fantasy that's not entirely illegal, is the question...

Are we just doing this to be nice to them? Don't see something like that if legal ever happening. The only one that would make sense would be 2018, if we give them an asset when there are picks owed it can affect the position of the remaining picks.

I agree with you in that I don't HATE Brooklyn but make no mistake I hope they are really bad the next 3 years.

[165bows]

I'm definitely enjoying the schadenfreude a bit, but BK isn't in my top 10 most hated teams across sports, so I don't feel a need to wish them buried in a pit of hopelessness for all times (frankly, I'd like them to be a little successful in horning in on the Knicks' "limelight"). I've been wondering if there might be ways to help us help them help us.

For example, and I'm sure this is entirely illegal and I can't be bothered to take the 60 seconds to look it up, but:

- If BK 2016 1st makes top three, we send them the DAL pick and a couple quality 2nds.
- If BK 2017 1st makes top three, we send them the MEM pick and a couple quality 2nds.
- If BK 2018 1st makes top three, we send them our 2018 1st and a couple quality 2nds.

At the end of three years, we've nabbed 2 or 3 top picks, and BK has done some decent work towards a reinvigoration of youth, which they have no real way to do as it stands now.

And really, the above scenario is conservative; you can pretty much send them every other pick we have in that timeframe if necessary. If we're getting several top-3 picks out of the deal while being consistently competitive ourselves, it's a huge win no matter how you slice it.


So, is there a version of that fantasy that's not entirely illegal, is the question...

I don't see the need to incentivize them, they are doing a pretty good job on their own of being bad this year. I mean, compare their current starting lineup to guys they've dumped/released/traded/let walk away for nothing.

Plumlee/Teletovic/Pierce/Anderson/Williams vs Lopez/Young/Johnson/Bogdanovich/Jack.

I'm not really sure which is better.

[SMTBSI]

I don't see the need to incentivize them, they are doing a pretty good job on their own of being bad this year.

Are we just doing this to be nice to them?

Hm. Kind of surprised to hear those responses. I thought my idea was silly because: illegal and impractical, not because: un-useful.

Guess I'm just not enough of an optimist to actually honestly expect multiple top-3 picks out of Brooklyn as things stand. Having no incentive to tank the next few years means they should always at least be able to stay afloat above the teams that are trying to lose every game.

I mean, put it this way. If you could leave things as they are now, with all uncertainty intact, or give up every pick we own in 2016, '17, and '18 for a guaranteed top-3 pick in each of those years, which would you choose? I'd take the three guaranteed top-3 picks.


...Well, I also haven't slept in a very long time. Maybe it will seem to make less sense to me tomorrow.

[Powe-Fessional]

There are some REALLY good wing players at the top of this next draft that have all caught my eye. Boston also seems desperate for wing help.

Ben Simmons is a diabolical offensive player. I compare him to Jabari a bit because he literally dominates the competition on offense. It doesn't even look like he's trying half the time and still finds ways to get to the rack. He's more athletic than Jabari, but not as lethal of a shooter. His vision is INSANE for someone that size. I actually like him more than Parker coming out of high school. KJ and I were having a conversation and he's got a lot of Evan Turner in him, meaning he's really a point forward when you combine his size with his ability to run an offense. But his ceiling obviously is much higher than Turner's because of his shooting and his first step. My worries about Simmons comes on the defensive side. In games that I've watched of his he doesn't seem too engaged. His offensive potential however is off the charts.

Jaylen Brown is the best two-way wing right now. He kind of looks and plays like Stanley Johnson, which should intrigue a lot of people. He has a pretty sturdy frame already, and obviously he has some room to get bigger. Like Simmons, I like the way this kid attacks the basket. Shooters impress me, but I love guys that can put it on the floor and can't be stopped. Brown is one of those guys. He is also a really good defensive player. I'll probably end up writing another wings piece during college basketball this year, he might end up being drafted over Simmons because of his two-way potential.

However, as much as I love these two guys the guy I'm most interested in is Brandon Ingram. This guy is flat out WEIRD. Simmons is a legit 6'9", but doesn't have great measurables. Brown fills that "Justise Winslow" mold, where he's an undersized SF at 6'6" but his measurables suggest he's more SF than SG (who cares anyway he's a wing player). Then there's the ridiculous Ingram at 6'9.5", 7'3" wing, and a 9'1.5" standing reach. HOLY HELL. He'll play PG for his HS team sometimes, but also occupies the C roll on defense. He is a LEGIT shooter, no hitch/dip, quick release. For those of you mad that Danny didn't get Giannis, here's a way to get another, more polished version. I'm currently buying Ingram stock.

[165bows]

I don't see the need to incentivize them, they are doing a pretty good job on their own of being bad this year.

Are we just doing this to be nice to them?

Hm. Kind of surprised to hear those responses. I thought my idea was silly because: illegal and impractical, not because: un-useful.

Guess I'm just not enough of an optimist to actually honestly expect multiple top-3 picks out of Brooklyn as things stand. Having no incentive to tank the next few years means they should always at least be able to stay afloat above the teams that are trying to lose every game.

I mean, put it this way. If you could leave things as they are now, with all uncertainty intact, or give up every pick we own in 2016, '17, and '18 for a guaranteed top-3 pick in each of those years, which would you choose? I'd take the three guaranteed top-3 picks.


...Well, I also haven't slept in a very long time. Maybe it will seem to make less sense to me tomorrow.

If it was just able to take the hypothetical, sure. But outside of cutting Lopez/Johnson, what else could they do? Every addition came from among the four best tanking teams in the league last year (Young, TRob, Bargnani, Ellington, Larkin) and they traded a competent rotation guy for a rookie and used their first round pick on the least ready guy available. Philly should be taking notes lol.

[Dave_From_NB]

I don't see the need to incentivize them, they are doing a pretty good job on their own of being bad this year.

Are we just doing this to be nice to them?

Hm. Kind of surprised to hear those responses. I thought my idea was silly because: illegal and impractical, not because: un-useful.

Guess I'm just not enough of an optimist to actually honestly expect multiple top-3 picks out of Brooklyn as things stand. Having no incentive to tank the next few years means they should always at least be able to stay afloat above the teams that are trying to lose every game.

I mean, put it this way. If you could leave things as they are now, with all uncertainty intact, or give up every pick we own in 2016, '17, and '18 for a guaranteed top-3 pick in each of those years, which would you choose? I'd take the three guaranteed top-3 picks.


...Well, I also haven't slept in a very long time. Maybe it will seem to make less sense to me tomorrow.

I don't think there are many teams that go into the season with the sole intent to tank, but a Melo or Bryant injury and teams realize they're in a lost season and may as well go for the draft. Although the Nets have no reason to tank for the value of their own pick, I think they also have little reason to (further) compromise their future by trying to stagger into a playoff spot so a billionaire owner can get a couple of playoff gates. I see them as "sell off" candidates if they start the season really badly, trying to get anything at all in return for guys like Johnson.

And really, as long as they have Billy King as GM there is always hope that he does something (else) spectacularly stupid that just pounds them to the bottom.

[165bows]

Really any of the guys this Celtics club has moved on from and been better for it would be in the top 8 on this Brooklyn club. Boston lost tons of games with Crawford, Green, Rondo, Bass etc and those guys would all be starters or sixth men on this BRK team. I'd been comfortable saying they are bottom twelve but really they are closer to bottom 8. LAL, MIN, Portland, Denver, PHI and one of Det/ORL seem credibly bad but after that it's a dogfight.

[165bows]

Jay King ‏@ByJayKing 4h4 hours ago

Jay King retweeted Mike Mazzeo

This seems like a good time to issue a reminder: the Celtics have their pick.

Jay King added,
Mike Mazzeo @MazzESPN
#Nets now have four PG options heading into training camp: Jarrett Jack, Shane Larkin, Ryan Boatright and Donald Sloan.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ByJayKing/status/630783786981134336[/tweet]

I actually think after looking again that, conference imbalance aside, Denver may have a better team than Brooklyn. Top four players on each team:

Denver - Gallinari, Faried, W. Chandler, Nurkic
Brooklyn: Lopez, J. Johnson, T. Young, and who, Bogdanovic or Ellington?