Greatest Blazers Ever: Vote for #6: LaMarcus Aldridge vs. Rasheed Wallace runoff

[Norm2953]

Too bad the vote is restricted to the players for Dr. Jack Ramsey and Schonely are unquestionably
Blazers. I'm still going to pass for I despise Sheed and have only a little more regard for Aldridge.

[Moonbeam]

I was gone for a few days so didn't get a chance to vote

I think it's kind of a sad commentary on Blazer history that we're only at #6 and be down to players the caliber of Sheed or LMA. I'd have a hard time voting for either this high. Personally, I thought Rasheed's technicals and off-court behavior were much bigger issues then most here think. I was extremely glad when the Blazers finally dumped his ass...and ass is the right word. And maybe it's that the sting of Aldridge leaving in the manner he did is so fresh that I'd have a hard time voting for him this high

I'd be more inclined to vote for Sabonis or Kersey or Kiki or Buck or Petrie or Thompson or Paxson, especially so in Sheed's case

in the Rasheed vs LMA thing, Sheed was better on defense but Aldridge was better on offense. I'd say the gap on offense was bigger then the gap on defense. Aldridge was the first option who was the focus of opponent's defense, and at times Aldridge carried his team the last few years; Sheed never did that..and I'm talking about a stretch of games, not a quarter or a half.

so, in the runoff, holding my nose I'd vote Aldridge over Rasheed. (The disclaimer of course is that because of Sheed's behavior, I wouldn't cast a vote for him in the top-10)

Sheed's behavior didn't seem to prevent him from having big impact, though. I know you're a stats guy as well, so I'll repost an edited version of a post I made in the last thread. What do you make of these numbers?

Win Shares:

Aldridge: 69.4
Wallace: 61.3

Win Shares/48:

Wallace: .152
Aldridge: .145

BPM:

Wallace: 2.3
Aldridge: 1.2

VORP:

Wallace: 21.1
Aldridge: 18.5

Playoff WS:

Wallace: 5.3
Aldridge: 2.0

Playoff WS/48:

Wallace: .135
Aldridge: .069

Playoff BPM:

Wallace: 3.2
Aldridge: -1.5

Playoff VORP:

Wallace: 2.5
Aldridge: 0.2

Aldridge is somewhat notorious for looking poor in these metrics despite having positive impact, but Sheed looks to have been better by +/- metrics like RAPM as well:

Using prior-informed RAPM:

1997-98 (source):

Sabonis: +4.68
Wallace: +4.61

1998-99 (source):

Wallace: +6.90
Sabonis: +5.30

1999-00 (source):

Wallace: +6.18
Sabonis: +4.53

2000-01 (source):

Sabonis: +3.6
Wallace: +3.5

2001-02 (source):

Wallace: +4.2

2002-03 (source):

Wallace: +4.5
Sabonis: +3.2

2003-04 (source):

Wallace: +4.8

2006-07 (source):

Aldridge: 0.0

2007-08 (source):

Aldridge: +1.2

2008-09 (source):

Aldridge: +3.0

2009-10 (source):

Aldridge: +2.3

2010-11 (source):

Aldridge: +3.2

2011-12 (source):

Aldridge: +3.2

2012-13 (source):

Aldridge: +3.8

2013-14 (source):

Aldridge: +3.7

2014-15 (source):

Aldridge: +2.9

[JasonStern]

Aldridge

One of the greatest statistical blazer we have had, and regardless of this offseason, 9 years he stuck with us through so many down times. I am surprised he is outside of the top 10 tbh.

Sheed was good, but he was far from a true #1 option, he was and could never be the face of the franchise let alone the city... please no.

Rasheed had more talent than Aldridge - I'll give him that. but what did he do with it and what did he accomplish? if this poll is redone in ten yeas after Aldridge has success outside of Portland, as Rasheed did, then suddenly all of the stats I provide will rationalize my selection. this is especially true in revisionist history should Matthews not recover, Batum never truly reach his potential, Lopez remain a role player, etc.

Do you also hold Aldridge accountable for Portland's late-season swoons the past 2 years?

considering the previous season, Portland ended the year 9-1 and then made it to the second round of the playoffs, yes.

Portland was already floundering before Matthews went down.

as someone that watched this season, please back up this statement.

How about in 2012, which led to a team fire sale?

Seems unfair to pin it on one guy in any of these cases.

fair enough, and both Wallace and Aldridge lacked leadership qualities. but after cherry picking each players' worst season as a lead guy, who eventually won with Portland?

To me, Dame is going to factor into a greatest Blazer votes

oh, he will in time. his accomplishments as a Blazer exceed Sabonis'. but good luck convincing the old timers.

the Rasheed love is getting a bit out of hand and revisionist. he's still a guy who:

* pegged Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje in the back of the head with a basketball during practice

If I recall correctly, the source of this story was Jason Quick. I'm not saying it didn't happen because I don't know but given Quick's long history of reporting events through the perspective of a stupid moron, I don't give it any weight.

* threw a towel in Sabonis' face

This did happen and I don't have any problem with it.

where there is smoke there is probably fire. not saying Wallace isn't a top ten Blazer - but to peg him over Aldridge who had better stats and less drama seems a bit revisionist.

* tried to assault Mike Dunleavy

I never heard anything about this. You must be thinking about another player and probably another coach as well.

Wallace one time going after Dunleavy and having to be restrained is well documented. whether or not it was justified is not, but again, when there is smoke there is fire, and I can't imagine whatever transpired being beneficial to the team.

* got suspended for threatening a ref

The ref was Tim Donaghy, google the name if you don't know the reason for the clarification.

I am well aware. how exactly did his suspension benefit the team?

Rasheed's only crime was he didn't like panzy reporters and wasn't a great ambassador for the team to the media. He was a great teammate and player.

I completely agree that he is a top ten Blazer, but he's not above Aldridge. people are just bitter that he left and/or sentimental of a golden age long ago where real basketball was played...

I think it's kind of a sad commentary on Blazer history that we're only at #6 and be down to players the caliber of Sheed or LMA. I'd have a hard time voting for either this high.

Mmm hmm.

the talent drop-off is pretty steep every 2 or so players. I can't wait for the ish storm that will eventually be defending j.r. rider.

Sheed's behavior didn't seem to prevent him from having big impact, though.

fair enough, but he accomplished more with a much more deep and talented supporting cast. I find it mind blowing that some of the people who have been so critical of the pathetic benches Olshey has put together during his tenure suddenly discount this fact when they compare the recent Blazers team to the stacked team of the late 1990s/early 2000s.

[Moonbeam]

Portland was already floundering before Matthews went down.

as someone that watched this season, please back up this statement.

Sure thing! I can massage the dates to make it look worse, but let's divide the season into 3 clean parts: October-December, January - March 5 (when Wes went down), and March 6-April 15 (end of regular season).

Through December 31st, Portland was 26-7 and had an SRS of 6.542.

From January 1st to March 5th, Portland was 15-12 with an SRS of 3.261.

From March 6th until the end of the season, Portland was 10-12 with an SRS of 1.694.

How about in 2012, which led to a team fire sale?

Seems unfair to pin it on one guy in any of these cases.

fair enough, and both Wallace and Aldridge lacked leadership qualities. but after cherry picking each players' worst season as a lead guy, who eventually won with Portland?

Neither won a title. Still, I feel Rasheed was a significantly better playoff performer.

Sheed's behavior didn't seem to prevent him from having big impact, though.

fair enough, but he accomplished more with a much more deep and talented supporting cast. I find it mind blowing that some of the people who have been so critical of the pathetic benches Olshey has put together during his tenure suddenly discount this fact when they compare the recent Blazers team to the stacked team of the late 1990s/early 2000s.

These are fair points. I don't factor in team success at all here, really. There are way too many factors to use team success alone as a way to rank players. I had Drexler over Walton for a reason. I'm not a ring counter, and I think KG was still a superstar in Minnesota despite missing the playoffs 3 times in a row. It's a player's performance that I try to judge (and how it helps contribute toward winning), and I think Rasheed has an edge over LaMarcus here, and it grows in the playoffs, IMO. Portland going out in the first round every year while Rasheed was there wouldn't change my opinion if Sheed had played exactly the same way, but his teams had lost due to other reasons (teammates, coaching, opponent strength, etc.).

[DaVoiceMaster]

Are we still voting for #6 or are we now down to 2 players and deciding which gets the nod?

[Masterfully]

Are we still voting for #6 or are we now down to 2 players and deciding which gets the nod?

It's a runoff between Sheed and Aldridge. I think it might still be tied.

[DaVoiceMaster]

Bah!!!!!!!!!!! I'll give my nod to Aldridge than (since Sabonis is out... again!!!). Aldridge has been a positive for the team while Sheed had his moments.

[Effigy]

I already voted for Aldridge, but I vote for him again if need be.

[Agenda42]

Rasheed had more talent than Aldridge - I'll give him that. but what did he do with it and what did he accomplish?

He was the best player on a WCF team, twice. Not exactly the highest standard of performance, but this is Portland we're talking about. One championship, three finals, and five WCFs in team history. You're not going to find better playoff performers on the list, I'm afraid.

To me, Dame is going to factor into a greatest Blazer votes

oh, he will in time. his accomplishments as a Blazer exceed Sabonis'. but good luck convincing the old timers.

Not yet, but Lillard is on the path. He has a chance to be the best Blazer ever, and his average case is probably better than Porter.

where there is smoke there is probably fire. not saying Wallace isn't a top ten Blazer - but to peg him over Aldridge who had better stats and less drama seems a bit revisionist.

Aldridge doesn't have better stats unless you're the sort of guy who likes high usage, low efficiency basketball. In the stats that have the best correlation with winning basketball games, Wallace is ahead in the regular season and crushingly ahead in the playoffs.

Sheed's behavior didn't seem to prevent him from having big impact, though.

fair enough, but he accomplished more with a much more deep and talented supporting cast. I find it mind blowing that some of the people who have been so critical of the pathetic benches Olshey has put together during his tenure suddenly discount this fact when they compare the recent Blazers team to the stacked team of the late 1990s/early 2000s.

In fairness to Olshey, he wasn't given a practically unlimited budget to work with. It's easy to overpay a bunch of role players when you have a Scrooge McDuck-style vault available to you. Still, this is a clear black mark on a GM record that is otherwise pretty good.

While I agree that Rasheed had the better bench behind him, I don't think Aldridge's playoff failures would have been fixed by adding Stacey Augmon, Detlef Schrempf, and Shawn Kemp to the team either. I'm not sure if Jesus himself could carry Aldridge to a Memphis series win.

[Moonbeam]

Runoff tally:

LaMarcus Aldridge (9): Masterfully, Oden2, DavidSterned, a_sensei, JasonStern, James72, Effigy, Wizenheimer, DaVoiceMaster

Rasheed Wallace (8): zzaj, mojomarc, Agenda42, Brandon-Clyde, Moonbeam, d-train, The Sebastian Express, kdawg32086

#12 halves his number and comes in at #6!

[puny]

Did LMA ever miss a dunk?

[JasonStern]

He was the best player on a WCF team, twice. Not exactly the highest standard of performance, but this is Portland we're talking about. One championship, three finals, and five WCFs in team history. You're not going to find better playoff performers on the list, I'm afraid.

a historically stacked $100+ million WCF team, as proven by people already voting for Sabonis and d-train claiming 1999-2000 Pippen played at a Bulls era level. hell, look at the reserves: Anthony, Wells, Schrempf, Grant, O'Neal. that's a second round playoff team in the east last season.

keeping that in mind, not a single non-Aldridge Blazer from last year's second round playoff team has even been mentioned, outside of Norm2953 casually saying some day Dame will be ranked high. and while Aldridge only had one great playoff series, he still had one great playoff series.

To me, Dame is going to factor into a greatest Blazer votes

oh, he will in time. his accomplishments as a Blazer exceed Sabonis'. but good luck convincing the old timers.

Not yet, but Lillard is on the path. He has a chance to be the best Blazer ever, and his average case is probably better than Porter.

Dame already has higher individual success/credentials - rookie of the year, 2x all-star, hitting that game winner in the Houston series. Sabonis never accomplished that during his tenure in Portland, although I understand people voting for him due to the number of seasons he played and post-season success.

[Agenda42]

a historically stacked $100+ million WCF team, as proven by people already voting for Sabonis and d-train claiming 1999-2000 Pippen played at a Bulls era level. hell, look at the reserves: Anthony, Wells, Schrempf, Grant, O'Neal. that's a second round playoff team in the east last season.

I wouldn't go that far, but certainly it's a great supporting cast.

keeping that in mind, not a single non-Aldridge Blazer from last year's second round playoff team has even been mentioned, outside of Norm2953 casually saying some day Dame will be ranked high. and while Aldridge only had one great playoff series, he still had one great playoff series.

As I see it, the 1999 Blazers had a world class bench, but I'm not so excited by their starting unit.

In terms of all-time guys, I think Lillard will eventually rank higher than Sabonis. By the WCF runs that Sheed led, he was pretty old and busted. The first three years of Sabas were clearly better than the remainder. I think 2014 Lillard was much more useful than 1999 Sabas.

The next guy I'd take from either team is Wes Matthews, who I see as considerably more valuable than Steve Smith.

I think Pippen and Batum are pretty comparable guys. I wouldn't rank either as a top 10 Blazer, and I wouldn't be surprised if they both landed outside the top 25.

I'd rather have Lopez than Stoudamire at their respective positions.

Dame already has higher individual success/credentials - rookie of the year, 2x all-star, hitting that game winner in the Houston series. Sabonis never accomplished that during his tenure in Portland, although I understand people voting for him due to the number of seasons he played and post-season success.

I'll be picking Sabas pretty soon here. He was an elite role player in his time in Portland, and the Blazers are running out of star names to pick.

The main reason I have him over Lillard over his career, so far, is that Lillard is a really weak defender and Sabonis was one of the few guys who could give Shaq problems to solve. I think Lillard is a gym rat and we won't be talking about him as a weak defender in a few years' time.