PMOTT3 and Chuck Texas Early Off-Season Review: Boston Celtics

[Texas Chuck]

PMOTT3's Review:

Losses:

Brandon Bass
Gerald Wallace
Shalvick Randolph
Luigi Datome
Phil Pressey
Marcus Thornton

Pretty much just guys although Bass was good for them. No one that should be extremely missed though.

Draft:

Terry Rozier
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey

Hunter and Rozier should have been flip-flopped at where they got drafted. Rozier at #16 was very puzzling to say the least. Mickey was a solid 2nd round pick up as well.

Trades:

Jones and a 2nd for a future protected 2nd
Wallace for David Lee
Zoran Dragic and a 2nd for a future 2nd

All of these trades aren't exciting and are just meh but i dont feel like they lost on any of them. Wallace for David Lee was very solid actually and i think Lee can become a 15-20/10 guy again in Boston under his contract year.

Free Agency:

Amir
Jerekbo
Crowder

The Crowder contract was my favorite. Excellent value and locked in long term. If he keeps developing under Stevens then this contract will get a lot better very quickly.

I dont like the money for Jerekbo or Amir but they fill needs for Boston and are short term deals. So i can't really complain too much.

Current Depth Chart (pretty rough):

C: Tyler Zeller/Amir Johnson/Mickey
PF: Lee/Sullinger/Olynyk/
SF: Crowder/Turner/Jerebko
SG: Bradley/Young/Hunter
PG: Smart/Thomas/Rozier

Needs:

They have a lot of guys that can compliment a #1 or #2 option but none that are actually your 1st or 2nd go to guys. A true defensive center would be another need i would think.

Additional Thoughts:

I think that Boston has some of the most depth in the east. They did a great job as far as securing depth goes this off-season. Whats most interesting to me about Boston is whether they are going to keep their stock pile of assets and develop them or make a blockbuster style trade for a true star player. Ainge reportedly made a strong offer for Winslow but Charlotte wouldn't budge.

Win/Loss Prediction: 45-37

Brought back much of the band together and added Lee which was a smart move as well. I think Brad Stevens can get these guys into the playoffs as 4-8 seed.

Off-Season Grade: B-

Boston is sitting in great shape with those Brooklyn & Dallas picks. I expect a block buster trade from Ainge next off-season. Wallace for Lee was a good move. Didn't like Rozier at #16 but Hunter at #27 was great value. decent FA. Nothing bad but nothing exciting this off-season.

Chuck Texas' Review:

Losses:

Crash Wallace
Brandon Bass
Luigi Datome
Phil Pressey
Shavlik Randolph
Marcus Thornton

Nothing too much here. Bass was a nice player, but they have lots of guys to fill that spot.

Draft:

Terry Rozier
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey

I was puzzled by the Rozier pick because I didn't see a lot of pre-draft stuff of him going that high plus they have Smart and Thomas at PG which seems pretty set for awhile. But if they love the guy then you got to take him. Thought they got great value with Hunter and I really liked the Mickey pick.

Trades:

Jones and a 2nd for a future protected 2nd
Crash for David Lee
Zoran Dragic and a 2nd for a future 2nd


Overall I'm kinda meh on this. Don't really see the point of Lee and I don't think Jones or Zoran have much to offer and they didn't get much in assets for them. Nothing bad here and they are better for the deals, but I guess I just expect more at this point from Ainge

Free Agency:

Crowder
Jerebko
Amir Johnson


I don't hate the Johnson or Jerebko deals, but again kinda meh. Both seem slightly overpaid but its short term. Johnson should help defensively if he's healthy. Loved the Crowder deal. This is a really useful player who really blossomed in Boston. And this is a bargain of a deal going forward.

Depth Chart (Guessing)

Tyler Zeller/Amir Johnson/Mickey
Sullinger/Olynyk/Lee
Crowder/Turner/Jerebko
Bradley/Young/Hunter
Smart/Thomas/Rozier

I'm guessing Jones and Dragic get cut.

Needs:

More top end-talent. I don't see any future offensive stars here. Another true center would be really nice. Another proven wing would help in the short-term.

Additional Thoughts:

I really expected Boston to be more aggressive this summer, and maybe they tried and there just wasn't a deal to be had. Other that it feels like they added some more good players/prospects but nothing that excites me. Tons of depth, not enough high-end talent.

Win-loss Prediction: 44-38

I think they are a playoff team in the East again. Don't see the potential to get a top 4 seed and don't see them dropping below .500

Off-Season Grade: C-

Just every move was just kinda okay. Nothing terrible, but nothing that great really either. Looks like another year similar to last year.

[Laimbeer]

D+. Questionable drafting and did little to help themselves in trades or free agency.

[Trader_Joe]

But but...ESPN said they had a top 4 free agency.

Overall I think they did well enough. Rozier was a reach and odd pick but Hunter and Mickey make up for it. Free agency I liked the Amir deal as he adds shot blocking and athleticism. And while I've liked Crowder since early on, I'm not sure he's worth that kind of money, but we'll see.

The Lee trade was good for them if for no other reason they seemed to have won on value.

I expect Ainge to make a major move this trade deadline or next summer which should define the future of this team. He hasn't forced anything yet, though perhaps h tried with that attempt at #9., He's been rather patient otherwise.

Grade: B/B-

[bondom34]

I go C , it just seems like everything was a little below average. None of the signings really moved the needle a ton, but none were big overpays and Amir's second year is NG. Didn't like the Rozier pick, but Hunter was a good one, the Lee deal was nice, but they've just got a ton of seemingly redundant players and need to do something, which they haven't been able to yet.

[neno]

D -
High expectations for draft and/or trades + as was stated above "meh" free agency no " bad" moves but mediocre expectations

[brackdan70]

I go B-. The draft was pretty good. I was puzzled by Rozier at first but after watching him in SL and digging a title deeper, I am pretty excited about this guy. Hunter and Mickey were great value and I think will stick in the league with solid careers.

Was hoping for more in free agency but in hindsight I am really glad we didn't over pay for the likes of Monroe or Harris. Amir and JJ are both solid guys in thier prime signed for very team friendly contracts that keep Ainge's options open. Love the Crowder Deal. super value.
The trades seemed like just something for the front office to stay busy, but they were all positive for the Cs (tiny positives).

i feel a little itchy having such an unbalanced roster and so many rotation guys that should get minutes, but won't.

I think you guys are pretty close on projected record, though I would not be surprised if they overachieved a little.

[BringtheD]

i'll give them a B. I think Lee is a good fit, so he could have a good year. It's one of those trades that was good for both teams. FA wasn't bad, no bad contracts given out. The draft was good, could've gotten better value than rozier, but stealing hunter almost makes up for it, but they didn't strike out. Ainge hit a bunch of singles, he made the team better, while staying flexible for trades in the future; loaded the bases for the homerun hit, so to speak. Above average imo.

[stitches]

It's hard for me to evaluate that off-season. They got some players on good-value contracts, they tried to make noise on draft ngiht, but didn't find a willing partner to consolidate some of their small assets into mid-lottery pick(Winslow) or a trade for a great starter so I'm not sure I can hold them accountable for it.

I'm not the biggest fan of the Rozier pick, but the other picks I thought were great. The biggest problem I have with that Boston team is that with the exception of Smart they don't have any high-level talent. It's a team of role players and bench players that start and are relied on to be part of a team offense. From 2 to 15 not a single player is what I would call good/great starter in the league. If they didn't have one of the best coaches in the league, I don't think they'd be anywhere near sniffing playoffs.

I like Amir Johnson, but again - I don't think he really moves the needle much for them.
If I had to give it a grade it'd be C+ and if I had to give a prediction for the record it would be a slight improvement over last year - 42-40

[jowglenn]

I hate judging the draft before the guys play a single NBA game, unless the team picks an obvious bust or grabs an obvious steal. I don't think either is the case here, so I think it's just too early to say. I mean, look at any previous draft - everyone has an opinion, but does it really mean anything until we see a season or two from the players?

Otherwise, I give them an A. Every move made was a solid one.

Amir Johnson is the right guy for their frontcourt - he brings sorely-needed defense.

David Lee is lightyears better than Gerald Wallace, so that's a huge upgrade.

I mean, right there, they just grabbed two legit starters (ok, maybe Lee is a fringe starter, but he's been a starter for many years in the league) who are both consummate pros to bolster their frontcourt, which was their weakest position.

They take a flyer on Jones.

They get Crowder to agree to a fantastic deal - like, in a year or two that might be THE steal of 2015 free agency (obviously, duncan, west, etc... but for younger guys, it might end up being an amazing deal).

All of these moves are great moves for them. Their main weakness was their frontcourt in general. Too many young guys and not enough defense. Well they just added a solid defensive big in Amir and another experienced vet in Lee.

I'm sure Stevens will experiment a lot with the rotation, but I expect their general 10-man rotation to be like:

Smart/Thomas/Bradley/Turner/Crowder/Lee/Johnson/Sullinger/Olynyk/Zeller. That still leaves half the darn world to develop as roster depth - Rozier, Hunter, Young, Mickey.

Everyone will have to earn their minutes, and they're all going to be scrapping hard.


Boston didn't make any desperation FA moves where they massively overpay a guy a la Wes Matthews or whatever. At the deadline, they'll have Lee's expiring plus a billion picks and youth to package for whoever is available too cheaply. Ainge will pull the trigger.


They made careful moves, nothing too drastic and nothing too desperate, and I liked every single one.

Again, can't speak to the draft, because it's just too early, especially when talking about non-lotto guys. Because really, none of us have any idea.

[165bows]

PMOTT3's Review:

Losses:

Brandon Bass
Gerald Wallace
Shalvick Randolph
Luigi Datome
Phil Pressey
Marcus Thornton

Pretty much just guys although Bass was good for them. No one that should be extremely missed though.

Draft:

Terry Rozier
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey

Hunter and Rozier should have been flip-flopped at where they got drafted. Rozier at #16 was very puzzling to say the least. Mickey was a solid 2nd round pick up as well.

Trades:

Jones and a 2nd for a future protected 2nd
Wallace for David Lee
Zoran Dragic and a 2nd for a future 2nd

All of these trades aren't exciting and are just meh but i dont feel like they lost on any of them. Wallace for David Lee was very solid actually and i think Lee can become a 15-20/10 guy again in Boston under his contract year.

Free Agency:

Amir
Jerekbo
Crowder

The Crowder contract was my favorite. Excellent value and locked in long term. If he keeps developing under Stevens then this contract will get a lot better very quickly.

I dont like the money for Jerekbo or Amir but they fill needs for Boston and are short term deals. So i can't really complain too much.

Current Depth Chart (pretty rough):

C: Tyler Zeller/Amir Johnson/Mickey
PF: Lee/Sullinger/Olynyk/
SF: Crowder/Turner/Jerebko
SG: Bradley/Young/Hunter
PG: Smart/Thomas/Rozier

Needs:

They have a lot of guys that can compliment a #1 or #2 option but none that are actually your 1st or 2nd go to guys. A true defensive center would be another need i would think.

Additional Thoughts:

I think that Boston has some of the most depth in the east. They did a great job as far as securing depth goes this off-season. Whats most interesting to me about Boston is whether they are going to keep their stock pile of assets and develop them or make a blockbuster style trade for a true star player. Ainge reportedly made a strong offer for Winslow but Charlotte wouldn't budge.

Win/Loss Prediction: 45-37

Brought back much of the band together and added Lee which was a smart move as well. I think Brad Stevens can get these guys into the playoffs as 4-8 seed.

Off-Season Grade: B-

Boston is sitting in great shape with those Brooklyn & Dallas picks. I expect a block buster trade from Ainge next off-season. Wallace for Lee was a good move. Didn't like Rozier at #16 but Hunter at #27 was great value. decent FA. Nothing bad but nothing exciting this off-season.

Chuck Texas' Review:

Losses:

Crash Wallace
Brandon Bass
Luigi Datome
Phil Pressey
Shavlik Randolph
Marcus Thornton

Nothing too much here. Bass was a nice player, but they have lots of guys to fill that spot.

Draft:

Terry Rozier
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey

I was puzzled by the Rozier pick because I didn't see a lot of pre-draft stuff of him going that high plus they have Smart and Thomas at PG which seems pretty set for awhile. But if they love the guy then you got to take him. Thought they got great value with Hunter and I really liked the Mickey pick.

Trades:

Jones and a 2nd for a future protected 2nd
Crash for David Lee
Zoran Dragic and a 2nd for a future 2nd


Overall I'm kinda meh on this. Don't really see the point of Lee and I don't think Jones or Zoran have much to offer and they didn't get much in assets for them. Nothing bad here and they are better for the deals, but I guess I just expect more at this point from Ainge

Free Agency:

Crowder
Jerebko
Amir Johnson


I don't hate the Johnson or Jerebko deals, but again kinda meh. Both seem slightly overpaid but its short term. Johnson should help defensively if he's healthy. Loved the Crowder deal. This is a really useful player who really blossomed in Boston. And this is a bargain of a deal going forward.

Depth Chart (Guessing)

Tyler Zeller/Amir Johnson/Mickey
Sullinger/Olynyk/Lee
Crowder/Turner/Jerebko
Bradley/Young/Hunter
Smart/Thomas/Rozier

I'm guessing Jones and Dragic get cut.

Needs:

More top end-talent. I don't see any future offensive stars here. Another true center would be really nice. Another proven wing would help in the short-term.

Additional Thoughts:

I really expected Boston to be more aggressive this summer, and maybe they tried and there just wasn't a deal to be had. Other that it feels like they added some more good players/prospects but nothing that excites me. Tons of depth, not enough high-end talent.

Win-loss Prediction: 44-38

I think they are a playoff team in the East again. Don't see the potential to get a top 4 seed and don't see them dropping below .500

Off-Season Grade: C-

Just every move was just kinda okay. Nothing terrible, but nothing that great really either. Looks like another year similar to last year.

Nicely done write-ups IMO, pretty reasonable takes.

Big questions to me are:

1.). What kind of play can they sustain from last year? They've generally improved a team (around the margins at least) for a club that won 61% of their games the second half of the year. But expecting that level of performance is a bit optimistic, so what can they reasonably be expected to pull off?

2.) What is the plan for all of their cap space next summer? They were very careful to keep firm salary commitments for next summer very low. With only three high end FA guys available (that as it stands look to stay where they are) what is the plan?

They did manage to keep good options open if nothing pans out, and can just keep whoever they like of Amir/Jerebko/RFAs. For a few teams out there with really low salary commitments next year, getting to the salary floor with next year's free agent group could be a little awkward, and they've managed to avoid that (which is a small positive).

[pacers33granger]

I think Boston is one of the tougher ones to put a grade on. Really depends on you're expectations I guess. All of their moves were at least decent, if not good. But no move was great and lots expected Ainge to do something bigger this offseason.

I think you have to give them a B to B+ based on the moves, but could see a lower grade based on the fact that Ainge seems to have gotten pushed into continuing the asset collection because he couldn't find anything worth going for, which puts the team in a bit of a tough spot.

[amcoolio]

I think they are this season's playoff team that regresses the following season. 33-37 wins. The east will be more competitive and a lot of teams in the east gave up after the all-star break where Boston did not. Ala Charlotte from last year (went 44-38, had a ho-hum offseason, then finished 33-49 amid an injury plagued year)

[MrPerfect1]

I would give BOS something like a C-. The moves are not bad by themselves but are very meh. Since BOS entire goal seems to be to acquire a Superstar, the fact they still have been unable to do so makes me lower their grade.

[Village Idiot]

I'd give them a D. They are assembling a roster of guys who are all ranked between 20 and 50 at their positions. Smart may become top 10 at his position but it hard to see any other player cracking the top 10. I feel like a team needs 3 guys in the top 10 positionally to be a real contender. The Celtics seems to be setting themselves up for the treadmill, unless one of the picks they're owed strikes gold.

[165bows]

I hate judging the draft before the guys play a single NBA game, unless the team picks an obvious bust or grabs an obvious steal. I don't think either is the case here, so I think it's just too early to say. I mean, look at any previous draft - everyone has an opinion, but does it really mean anything until we see a season or two from the players?

Otherwise, I give them an A. Every move made was a solid one.

Amir Johnson is the right guy for their frontcourt - he brings sorely-needed defense.

David Lee is lightyears better than Gerald Wallace, so that's a huge upgrade.

I mean, right there, they just grabbed two legit starters (ok, maybe Lee is a fringe starter, but he's been a starter for many years in the league) who are both consummate pros to bolster their frontcourt, which was their weakest position.

They take a flyer on Jones.

They get Crowder to agree to a fantastic deal - like, in a year or two that might be THE steal of 2015 free agency (obviously, duncan, west, etc... but for younger guys, it might end up being an amazing deal).

All of these moves are great moves for them. Their main weakness was their frontcourt in general. Too many young guys and not enough defense. Well they just added a solid defensive big in Amir and another experienced vet in Lee.

I'm sure Stevens will experiment a lot with the rotation, but I expect their general 10-man rotation to be like:

Smart/Thomas/Bradley/Turner/Crowder/Lee/Johnson/Sullinger/Olynyk/Zeller. That still leaves half the darn world to develop as roster depth - Rozier, Hunter, Young, Mickey.

Everyone will have to earn their minutes, and they're all going to be scrapping hard.


Boston didn't make any desperation FA moves where they massively overpay a guy a la Wes Matthews or whatever. At the deadline, they'll have Lee's expiring plus a billion picks and youth to package for whoever is available too cheaply. Ainge will pull the trigger.

They made careful moves, nothing too drastic and nothing too desperate, and I liked every single one.

Again, can't speak to the draft, because it's just too early, especially when talking about non-lotto guys. Because really, none of us have any idea.

Two other positives for their off-season (that didn't really have anything to do with their moves):

1.) Their future pick situation improved in both Dallas and Brooklyn

2.) Just as importantly, other competitive teams' trade assets seem a good bit weaker than a year ago. Boston is really in the trade market for high end guys, and some of their bigger competitors in the area over the last year or two (Phoenix, Chicago, Houston, OKC) have burned through a lot of their asset base in terms of picks and young players. And the teams that do have solid trade assets (PHI, LAL) don't have a playoff caliber team if someone comes available midseason. There are other clubs like Toronto that have moved up in this area but on the whole I think the landscape for Boston (especially considering point 1 above) has improved.

Hard part around it is the timing. With the cap escalating, it gets rid of a lot of the incentive for teams to dump guys that are high priced or are shortly going to be so.

[cl2117]

My Grade: B

I'm really really surprised to see some low grades here. I give Ainge a very solid B for his efforts thus far. I agree that none of the moves they made were spectacular or really moved the needle all that much and they failed to successfully make the type of big move either for an established star like Love or young high ceiling prospect like Winslow, so in that sense I can see why people might consider the off-season a failure.

The thing is though that I think you need to look beyond that and see that while Ainge wasn't able to make those big moves he also avoided temptation to make panic moves and go out and overpay for guys who would just put them on the treadmill for a couple years. So while my original grade would probably be a C for his inability to make that BIG move Boston needs, I think he absolutely deserves to be bumped up to a solid B for making smart forward looking moves that allow him to take another crack at going for the homerun next summer/this trade deadline, while still improving the team.

Losses:
Bass- the only player of any real impact to leave the team.

Really didn't fit with the direction of the team, but one of my absolute favorite guys to have had on the squad. Wish him the best, but right thing to part ways this summer.

Draft:
As everyone said Rozier was a reach, Hunter was good value. As crazy as it sounds, had Ainge drafted them in reverse order I think people would be giving him a much better draft grading. I'm still really not sold on the Rozier pick. It was extra disappointing after having such high hopes we could move up for a Winslow/Turner type player. That being said if they really like him that much, at 16 I have trouble faulting them going for a guy they see as having an impact at the NBA level, considering how so many people at that stage in the draft flame out anyway. Plus it gives them some flexibility to potentially dangle Smart who is their best trade chip prospect (don't think Ainge drafted Rozier with the intention of that, but it could be beneficial later).

I liked the Mickey pick and would loved to have seen them go with a draft and stash guy with their other 2nd rounder instead of Marcus Thornton, but at 45 you are at the lottery ticket stage of the draft anyway.

Overall a little disappointed. Not terribly. I give Ainge props for going hard for Winslow at 9 and I think he offered the max package that would have been reasonable. If no one was interested, he had to just do the best he could. Had we come away with Dekker/Hunter/Mickey I'd be much happier, but I'm ok with it.

Free Agency:
Most important thing was that they didn't get crazy and give too much to guys like Monroe/Harris/Carroll. That's a big reason he's getting a B from me and not a C.

Secondly, I love the Crowder deal. He will most certainly earn that deal over the next 5 years (at 7m) and there is potential that he could be the next guy to break out and be a bargain (I still view him as just a great bench complimentary piece, but there's some hope he can be more).

Johnson and Jerebko deals are reasonable (2 years 24m and 2 years 10m respectively), solid and not flashy, but the key thing for me is that the second year isn't guaranteed. That is HUGE. If they play well then they are great bargains for another year, if they don't work out they can be trade chips or outright released thus opening up cap again in 2016. That's a big big plus.

Trades:
They didn't lose a single one, which is always a plus. Didn't gain all that much either. Lee for Wallace was a big win in my opinion, since Lee can actually contribute and I'd say there is an outside chance that he plays well enough in bigger minutes and a bigger role that he could even bring back positive value at the deadline.

PJ3 and a second for nothing and Dragic and a 2nd for nothing are just solid deals. No downside, small benefit, totally pleased with it.

Needs:
Top level talent. They've got the supporting cast, now they need the star. The opportunities to grab one are few and far between and Ainge missed out here, but he was smart enough to leave open the possibility for him to pounce on one the next chance he gets. They need a offensive SF and defensive C and they'll be ready to go.

Additional thoughts:
It sucks that they couldn't make the big splash, but they tried (shopping hard for Winslow) and when they couldn't get anything done they made smart moves to make the team a little better and stay flexible for the next chance they get to make that splash.

Win loss projection:
45-37. I think they win a couple extra games with a full season of IT and Lee replacing crash. I wouldn't be surprised if the roster carousel starts turning again though this season as Ainge keeps manoeuvring and Stevens is left trying to make do with what he has. I think they're a 6-8 seed in the East.

[BadWolf]

They did everything right, but didn't move the needle at all. Still waiting for that thing. B-/C

[Worm122]

In my opinion Boston Celtics are tanking in an understated way cuz for me they are not rushing this rebuild plan and they still coleting assets and investing in developing their young players to see who fit in a long term. I think in the right price David Lee could be use in the future or as assets in a big trade.

In this year i don expect to Celtics go so well because a lot teams got better as Knicks, Pistons, Heat, and Magic.

My Win Loss projection will be 37-45.

[Golabki]

They weren't able to consolidate thier assets into a major prospect or a current star. That's really what they need to do, and if we use that as the bar for success then they clearly failed... but that's a VERY high bar.

Given that they didn't have the opportunity to make the big move, how did they do?

Draft - I don't love the Roziar pick, but I think it was fine. I do think Danny has shown a lack of interest in euro players and that really hurt this year because we would have liked to draft and stash. I'd give them a C.

Signings - I think Johnson and Crowder were two of the most team friendly contracts signed by anyone. In a market were it's almost impossible to find good deals on a good role-players, the celtics found 2 great ones. They get an A from me.

Other - The Lee trade makes sense to me from a value perspective. Wallace was a sunk costs, so they basically signed Lee to a 1 year $5M deal, which in that context is clearly a bargin. Plus he's a great locker room guy and could be used if a major trade opportunity presents itself. All that makes sense, but with Zeller/Johnson/KO/Sully/Lee they have one too many bigs that would seem to need minutes. I'll give them an incomplete because we need to see what happens at the trade deadline.

Net-net I think they deserve a B.

[loserX]

Although I agree it was disappointing that Boston couldn't get a big star or a top draft name, that's a goal that almost every team has every year and very few can ever get it done. So I don't hold that too much against them.

I still hated their draft, though. Rozier may turn out to be a fine player, maybe even a very good one...no way to know that yet. But he was a huge reach to play a position that Boston didn't even need. So from a value perspective, it's almost inexcusably bad. Even if Boston really liked Rozier they could likely have traded *way* down and still got him. No problem with either Hunter or Mickey but they would have had to be *huge* steals to make up for this, and I wouldn't call either of them that.

After Plan A fell through, they had to go to Plan B...get more competitive but keep all the contracts manageable. And they did that, getting Crowder affordably and bringing in Lee and Amir Johnson on expiring (or potentially expiring) deals, even if both guys are overpaid on an AAV basis.

The team is better on the court and I really only hated one move. I do agree that the Celts are going to have to find *some* way to consolidate soon. Between their kids and their draft picks they're not even going to have enough roster spots to play them all, so something's going to have to give.