How Can The Miami Heat Become Contenders Game?: Analytics

[deb]

Spoiler:

How do people feel about Markieff Morris? He is a 3 and D forward. He shoots better than both Deng and McBob. He D's better than both of them too. I reckon we may be able to do a 1-for-1 swap with Luol Deng.

He's neither 3 nor D. His 3pt% is .318 and D is average at best. Plus he's somewhat of a headcase. He was tied for 2nd in technical fouls in the league last year and is under investigation for assault.

He's an iso mid-range power forward with at most average defense and below average rebounding numbers. He stops ball movement, isn't that good of an outside shooter and is a liability off the court. It's like signing the thuggish version of Beasley.

Don't get me wrong, he will get you about 16pts 6rbds as a starter and is an instant 6th man of the year candidate of the bench. At 8mil per year that's great value, but imo it doesn't make sense for the Heat. Trading Deng for him would be especially weird, because Markieff can't play sf.

I guess the Heat could trade McRoberts for him, even their contracts are close. I haven't seen a lot of McBob, but at first glance I would say that Morris is a better scorer while McBob is a better distributor and teammate. And on a rather stacked Heat roster I'd rather have McBob's skillset as the backup pf.

Okay. Markieff is not exactly a 3-point specialist, but he shot 39.7% from beyond 16-foot. That's more than sufficient to stretch the floor in a way McBob (30.5% from beyond 16-foot ) never can.

Markieff Morris, 25, averaged 15.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.2 APG while shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 76.3 percent from the charity stripe in all 82 games last season for the Suns.

Luol Deng, 30, averaged 14.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.9 APG while shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 76.1 percent from the charity stripe in 72 games last season for the Heat.

A big man rotation of Bosh, Whiteside, Morris and STAT is gonna be absolutely intimidating.

The thing is, Markieff Morris rarely catches and shoots. He almost always pump fakes and goes into mid range iso situations. A big reason why Phx wasn't as good last year as they were a year before is that they substituted Frye with Morris in their starting lineup. Morris scores more points than Frye, but doesn't stretch the floor as efficiently, he clogs up the inside (ok, mid-range), plays iso a lot and stops ball movement, similar to Beasley. Plus if you switch Deng for Morris you end up with Winslow/Green/Ennis as your sf rotation = you end up with a 6'6 rookie/a terrible defender/a scrub guarding LBJ. Deng at this point in time is a better defender than any of the three aforementioned. If you could get Tucker+Morris for Deng, now that'd be something, but Phx won't stand for that kind of robbery...

[Bourne85]

I don't have title expectations. But, for us to be "close" this year these things need to happen.

-Whiteside has to be the best C in the LEAGUE. I'm talking 24ppg 16rebounds 3blocks. Anchor the defense. Win defensive player of the year.

-Wade needs to play at league MVP level. Possibly even win it. If he misses more than....15 games, that's already far too many. Needs to avg 25ppg on 48-52%.

-Dragic needs to get us 10assist per game. And atleast 15ppg.

-Bosh needs to be top 5 PF. 18ppg 8rebounds. 3ball at 40%.

-Deng needs to be top 5 wing defender with 14ppg MINIMUM.

-The entirety of our bench needs to put up atleast 20points a night.

-Spo needs to be COY.

- Heat have to finish top 2 in the conference. Dodge the Cavs all the way til ECF where hopefully Lebron will be gassed from going to the finals every damn year.

If those things are possible, then we have a shot. That's what it's gonna take. If those things happen I have no doubt we can beat anyone. But only if those things happen!

[IggieCC]

I don't have title expectations. But, for us to be "close" this year these things need to happen.

-Whiteside has to be the best C in the LEAGUE. I'm talking 24ppg 16rebounds 3blocks. Anchor the defense. Win defensive player of the year.

-Wade needs to play at league MVP level. Possibly even win it. If he misses more than....15 games, that's already far too many. Needs to avg 25ppg on 48-52%.

-Dragic needs to get us 10assist per game. And atleast 15ppg.

-Bosh needs to be top 3 PF. 18ppg 8rebounds. 3ball at 40%.

-Deng needs to be top 5 wing defender with 14ppg MINIMUM.

-The entirety of our bench needs to put up atleast 20points a night.

-Spo needs to be COY.

- Heat have to finish top 2 in the conference. Dodge the Cavs all the way til ECF where hopefully Lebron will be gassed from going to the finals every damn year.

If those things are possible, then we have a shot. That's what it's gonna take. If those things happen I have no doubt we can beat anyone. But only if those things happen!

We'll have to average 116+ PPG as a team.. with COY SPO, MVP Wade, and best center Whiteside to be close?

WOW

[Bourne85]

I edited a bit but yea pretty much. Gotta put up over 100ppg. Best C in the league and DPOY Whiteside, Wade top 3 MVP, spo needs to win COY. That's the jist of it. Seems impossible? Well that's what it will take.

[shanedude]

I kind of agree with Bourne surprisingly. It will take a herculean effort from the entire organization to chip this year.

[KingDavid]

Lmao Bourne is the gift that keeps on giving