Kemba Walker: Believer or Non-Believer?

[lakeshow22]

Kemba Walker is going into his 5th year with the Charlotte Hornets, and despite leading them to the playoffs a couple years ago, they continue to be a fairly dysfunctional franchise. Walker averaged 17.3 ppg/5.1 apg/3.5rpg on 39% from the field and nearly 31% from 3. Though his shooting numbers are sub-par, this is largely in part to his somewhat erratic shot selection, streaky shooting ability, and being forced to carry most of the offensive load for the Hornets.

Despite a lot of the criticism Walker receieves due to his inefficiency, I am still a believer. He just turned 25 not too long ago, so he is still young and has time to continue to improve his shot and his decision making, as well as brush up on his PG skills. I think the addition of Jeremy Lamb, Nicholas Batum, and even Frank Kaminsky will really benefit Walker. The Hornets did have anyone who could stretch the floor last year and were the worst 3-point shooting team in the NBA, which I believe has really, negatively affected Walkers play.

I think he is going to have a better 2015-2016 season. I do not think he will make the ASG and he may never make it, but I think he can be a sort of similar caliber player as Mike Conley in the future.

[whitesideformip]

Mike Conley is a perfect comparison. Someone who can be a great contributor and be very helpful but isn't quite All-Star caliber.

[Torres]

Kemba can become a good 4th player on a championship team. Boy is clutch but I don't seen him becoming a top-tier pg.

[tsherkin]

Mike Conley is a perfect comparison. Someone who can be a great contributor and be very helpful but isn't quite All-Star caliber.

What? No he isn't. Conley is, and always has been, a superior player to Kemba. He can shoot effectively from the floor. Kemba Walker has managed 39%+ FG once so far in his career, while Conley has never shot under 42.8% (and has averaged 44.2% over 8 seasons ). Yes, there's a volume difference, but Walker is terrible at finishing around the rim, while Conley is not; Conley is a good 3pt shooter and Walker is not; Conley has an effective middle game and Walker does not. Kemba is not a good scorer; it's his most significant weakness. That makes Conley an awful point of comparison, because they're nothing alike in terms of on-court efficacy and utility. Conley hit the league a lot better than Walker and it has stayed that way. I think Kemba has superior physical tools and is at least as good a playmaker, but this dearth of scoring skill really limits his ability to be a player with a significant role on a good team.

Kemba Walker is going into his 5th year with the Charlotte Hornets, and despite leading them to the playoffs a couple years ago, they continue to be a fairly dysfunctional franchise. Walker averaged 17.3 ppg/5.1 apg/3.5rpg on 39% from the field and nearly 31% from 3. Though his shooting numbers are sub-par, this is largely in part to his somewhat erratic shot selection, streaky shooting ability, and being forced to carry most of the offensive load for the Hornets.

Eh... no. There's a point where you just have to call a spade a spade, and four years in, it's functionally clear that he can't handle any kind of significant shooting load. There's some truth to the idea that the low assisted proportion on PG shots caps out the expected efficiency for all but outlier talents, but he hasn't really improved to a meaningful extent and that's not a hallmark of really good players, of the sort you want fielding significant numbers of possessions. He doesn't have the ability to finish well in the lane or at the rim, nor great 3pt shooting: simply switching him to a 6th Man role isn't going to change that, either. He could be better than he is right now; he isn't ancient, there are some role/team differences which could help some and maybe in years 5-7 we might see him make that final push to not-sucking at scoring. It's not super-likely, but it could happen. And there's some truth to the idea that he does help the team. Most advanced metrics don't think very highly of him, but he's had a net positive OBPM all his career, and that squares with the eye test. Charlotte is not good, and they do not have other players to effectively share the responsibility on that squad, so someone has to do it. He's ill-suited to the task, but he's trying.

That's noble, and everything, but it isn't a good strategy for a team hoping to get a lot better.

He's never going to be as good as even Conley, IMO, because he just doesn't have the native skill... but with better spacing and maybe even a lighter load on offense, I believe he could get into the neighborhood of league-average efficiency as opposed to putrid inefficiency. He's had roughly the same proportion of offensive responsibility all four seasons, and he's cut down on his turnovers while not showing any tangible improvement elsewhere, but maybe this year he puts together the lower turnovers with the shooting he had in 2013. If he manages that, you're talking about a 106 ORTG type of player, and that's a small improvement, but still something.

Players generally show whether or not they are worthy of significant offensive responsibility pretty quickly if you give them this kind of opportunity to see what they can do. No one expects miracles on an offensive dumpster-fire like the Hornets, but after four years, you'd expect to see some kind of tangible improvement if he was really worthwhile to their long-term plans. What he's really shown is that MAYBE, he could be your third or fourth guy. That doesn't really mean anything of consequence. It means he's replaceable, and probably needs a lesser role.

[theonlyclutch]

Pretty firm non-believer, called it when they were giving him that (still pretty big) extension, honestly would rather have Rubio and his oft-injured, non-shooting antics at this point. I remember the Charlotte board being high with stuff like "This guy is much better than the overrated Isaiah Thomas! Good contract!" LMAO indeed...

[Liver_Pooty]

Walker only wishes he could ever be as good as Mike Conley.

[MCDubbin]

He is literally a poor poor man's Kyrie.

That Conley comparison was horrible.

[Kevin Johnson]

Kemba is one of the one of the worst point guards you can invest in:

He is a scoring point guard who sucks at shooting and finishing.

He has no court vision.

Every one in 10 games he looks brilliant and clutch. He'll follow that up with a series of mediocre games and put some icing on the cake with a couple of 4-21 shooting nights where he kills all chances of his team winning.

4 yrs and 16 ppg @ 39% and only 5 apg

I have friends that think he's going to break out

[Ponchos]

Mike Conley is a perfect comparison. Someone who can be a great contributor and be very helpful but isn't quite All-Star caliber.

What? No he isn't. Conley is, and always has been, a superior player to Kemba. He can shoot effectively from the floor. Kemba Walker has managed 39%+ FG once so far in his career, while Conley has never shot under 42.8% (and has averaged 44.2% over 8 seasons ). Yes, there's a volume difference, but Walker is terrible at finishing around the rim, while Conley is not; Conley is a good 3pt shooter and Walker is not; Conley has an effective middle game and Walker does not. Kemba is not a good scorer; it's his most significant weakness. That makes Conley an awful point of comparison, because they're nothing alike in terms of on-court efficacy and utility. Conley hit the league a lot better than Walker and it has stayed that way. I think Kemba has superior physical tools and is at least as good a playmaker, but this dearth of scoring skill really limits his ability to be a player with a significant role on a good team.

Kemba Walker is going into his 5th year with the Charlotte Hornets, and despite leading them to the playoffs a couple years ago, they continue to be a fairly dysfunctional franchise. Walker averaged 17.3 ppg/5.1 apg/3.5rpg on 39% from the field and nearly 31% from 3. Though his shooting numbers are sub-par, this is largely in part to his somewhat erratic shot selection, streaky shooting ability, and being forced to carry most of the offensive load for the Hornets.

Eh... no. There's a point where you just have to call a spade a spade, and four years in, it's functionally clear that he can't handle any kind of significant shooting load. There's some truth to the idea that the low assisted proportion on PG shots caps out the expected efficiency for all but outlier talents, but he hasn't really improved to a meaningful extent and that's not a hallmark of really good players, of the sort you want fielding significant numbers of possessions. He doesn't have the ability to finish well in the lane or at the rim, nor great 3pt shooting: simply switching him to a 6th Man role isn't going to change that, either. He could be better than he is right now; he isn't ancient, there are some role/team differences which could help some and maybe in years 5-7 we might see him make that final push to not-sucking at scoring. It's not super-likely, but it could happen. And there's some truth to the idea that he does help the team. Most advanced metrics don't think very highly of him, but he's had a net positive OBPM all his career, and that squares with the eye test. Charlotte is not good, and they do not have other players to effectively share the responsibility on that squad, so someone has to do it. He's ill-suited to the task, but he's trying.

That's noble, and everything, but it isn't a good strategy for a team hoping to get a lot better.

He's never going to be as good as even Conley, IMO, because he just doesn't have the native skill... but with better spacing and maybe even a lighter load on offense, I believe he could get into the neighborhood of league-average efficiency as opposed to putrid inefficiency. He's had roughly the same proportion of offensive responsibility all four seasons, and he's cut down on his turnovers while not showing any tangible improvement elsewhere, but maybe this year he puts together the lower turnovers with the shooting he had in 2013. If he manages that, you're talking about a 106 ORTG type of player, and that's a small improvement, but still something.

Players generally show whether or not they are worthy of significant offensive responsibility pretty quickly if you give them this kind of opportunity to see what they can do. No one expects miracles on an offensive dumpster-fire like the Hornets, but after four years, you'd expect to see some kind of tangible improvement if he was really worthwhile to their long-term plans. What he's really shown is that MAYBE, he could be your third or fourth guy. That doesn't really mean anything of consequence. It means he's replaceable, and probably needs a lesser role.

Great post. All this and you didn't even touch on the fact that Conley is light-years ahead of Kemba on D.

[Liver_Pooty]

Tsherkin summed this thread up in a nutshell.

[ThumbsUpBaby]

If anything, you can say that his ceiling is at Ty Lawson's level and even that's a little far-fetched.

[Peja Stojakovic]

yeah. guys like ty lawson and isaiah thomas can actually finish layups.

[Diop]

if he could hit the mid range jumper at a decent %, he would be good already.

he has the quickness and handle to get an open mid range shot any time he likes, he just can't maintain his balance in the jump shot and bricks them.

Us Charlotte fans wish he could get it right, but its hard to remain hopeful after 4 years of sub par shooting.

[lakerz12]

I had him on my fantasy team last year and he was putting up some big numbers. 42 point game, multiple 30 pt games, 8-13 assists several times, lots of steals and threes.

If he stays healthy he has a chance to average 25 and 5 with stls and 3s. That's pretty rare

[lakerz12]

if he could hit the mid range jumper at a decent %, he would be good already.

he has the quickness and handle to get an open mid rang ni e shot any time he likes, he just can't maintain his balance in the jump shot and bricks them.

Us Charlotte fans wish he could get it right, but its hard to remain hopeful after 4 years of sub par shooting.

Good already? He averaged 17 and 5 with lots of steals and 3s as a fourth year pro.

[76ciology]

His ability to create shot makes fools you that he's special. The real story is that he is an inefficient PG with average defense.

[jimmy_smith]

Based on advance stats, he is "abysmal".
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

By RPM, he's rank 37th among PG (26th for offence, 60th for defense)

By WAR, he's rank 33rd among PG.

Hell, ever his back up (last season Mo William, this season Lin) are better than him on both RPM and WAR.

[improvisor]

Based on advance stats, he is "abysmal".
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/1

By RPM, he's rank 37th among PG (26th for offence, 60th for defense)

By WAR, he's rank 33rd among PG.

Hell, ever his back up (last season Mo William, this season Lin) are better than him on both RPM and WAR.

I think those guys are quite a bit more proven than Kemba as of right now. He has alot to prove to the Hornets this upcoming season. Is he good enough to start and justify that he deserves 15 shots per game or more? We will see. So far the answer has been no.

[Side beard]

I am trying to believe for last 3 season. He shows some sparks here and there, but it seems he can't become constant

[6moomoo6]

The DeMar DeRozan of PGs. Puts up points on terrible efficiency, below average defender, advanced stats nightmare. If he's your team's best player then your team's ceiling is fairly limited.