Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player?

Moderators: Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063, penbeast0, PaulieWal

User avatar
Quotatious
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 16,999
And1: 11,144
Joined: Nov 15, 2013

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#21 » by Quotatious » Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:54 pm

70sFan wrote:I don't like players like him. Volume ISO scorers who don't like and can't play defense. Beides scoring give your team nothing at all. BUT I LOVE DANTLEY GAME. He is for me amazing unique player. Unathletic and undersized for his position, but unguardable in one on one situations. Had every move down low, very strong, amazing pump fake, underrated shlasing ability which give him space to shoot from midrange.
I think he is underrated because there are not many videos about him in YouTube (I didn't see any Dantley highlight mix) nor many games from Jazz time. It would be nice if someone show his ability younger generation (I can't create basketball mixes :) )

Here's a short Dantley mix.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHKL_n1xCuI[/youtube]
chrismikayla
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,141
And1: 2,989
Joined: Jun 16, 2014

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#22 » by chrismikayla » Mon Aug 17, 2015 7:58 pm

Quotatious wrote:
70sFan wrote:I don't like players like him. Volume ISO scorers who don't like and can't play defense. Beides scoring give your team nothing at all. BUT I LOVE DANTLEY GAME. He is for me amazing unique player. Unathletic and undersized for his position, but unguardable in one on one situations. Had every move down low, very strong, amazing pump fake, underrated shlasing ability which give him space to shoot from midrange.
I think he is underrated because there are not many videos about him in YouTube (I didn't see any Dantley highlight mix) nor many games from Jazz time. It would be nice if someone show his ability younger generation (I can't create basketball mixes :) )

Here's a short Dantley mix.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHKL_n1xCuI[/youtube]



LOL you and I were thinking the same thing I just posted this around the same time. :D
[gfycat][/gfycat]
mischievous
General Manager
Posts: 7,675
And1: 3,485
Joined: Apr 18, 2015

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#23 » by mischievous » Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:30 pm

Dantley is definitely better than Melo.
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,595
And1: 8,224
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#24 » by trex_8063 » Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:43 pm

Mostly I’m going to echo what others have said: no, I don’t think he has a top 40 case, perhaps not even a sound top 50 case. Frankly, I think the forum overrated him at least marginally in awarding him #51 in the top 100 project.

He is a difficult one to rank, and definitely an interesting player study: an under-sized SF of limited athleticism who nonetheless managed to be one of the greatest individual scorers of all-time.
He was strong, I’ll give him that; this combined with a low center of gravity is perhaps what made him so good at posting up guys who often had 2-3” on him. Had a limited, but very effective, repertoire of post-moves, his signature one perhaps being the quick spin-move toward the baseline side (leaning INTO his defender) and putting it off the glass. Had enough of a mid-range shot to get defenders to bite on the pump-fake, whereupon he was probably an underrated slasher (favors going right, as far as I can tell: baseline angle toward the backboard/hoop if starting from the right side of the floor, across the middle of the lane if starting from the left). Was really good at protecting the ball with his body and elbows when driving, too; and obviously had a knack for drawing contact. Effective at working the baseline on back-door cuts, too.

And yet for all his effectiveness as an individual scorer, his talents didn’t translate into much TEAM offensive success. To some degree this isn’t something unique to Dantley. There are many instances in NBA history where offenses reliant on a single isolation scorer are not particularly good offenses (and particularly if the iso scorer isn’t an excellent playmaker, which Dantley wasn’t).

This phenomenon is more striking or noticeable with Dantley, however, for a couple of primary reasons (imo):
1) Because Dantley is such a hyper-elite scorer. I mean, statistically, he has a totally decent case as one of the five best scorers of all-time. When you fail to see a decent offense around a supposed GOAT-level scorer, it sort of makes you furrow your brow.
2) Because he so consistently was a part of mediocre or poor offenses throughout his prime.

Look at the Jazz team ORtg throughout the 1980’s while Dantley was with the team: there is only one season (ONE, out of SEVEN seasons they had with prime Dantley) in which their offense was even above average--->in ‘84: +1.4 rORTG, ranked 9th of 23 teams.
Each of the other six seasons their offense was below average (sometimes substantially so).

One could argue he didn’t have much offensive help. And while that’s true to a degree, he supporting cast wasn’t worthless on the offensive end.
In ‘80 he had an aging Ron Boone, 17 games with Pete Maravich, 19 games with a young Bernard King.
In ‘81 King and Maravich were gone and Boone was a year older; but Rickey Green and a rookie Dr. Dunkenstein had joined the team.
In ‘83 John Drew had joined the team (though he missed 38 games).
In ‘84 a rookie Thurl Bailey joined the team.
In ‘85 rookie John Stockton arrived.
In ‘86 rookie Karl Malone joined the team.

So overall, he certainly didn’t have it any worse than Tracy McGrady in Orlando, Kobe from ‘05-’07, or Lebron prior to ‘09. And he barely had it worse than Dominique during his prime years in Atlanta.

And yet none of TMac, Kobe, Lebron, or Dominique in the years specified ever had a team offense >2.0 below the league average. But Dantley did……four times, in the heart of his prime (admittedly one of those was the year he missed 60 rs games).

He was somewhat of a ball-stopper and a black-hole once given the rock. In watching some game footage from the mid-80’s Jazz you see a lot of Dantley taking the pass, the rest of the team stands around and watches for 4-8 seconds while Dantley does his thing; possibly followed by more standing around while Dantley shoots his FT’s…….it doesn’t exactly lend itself to his teammates finding any sort of offensive rhythm.

That’s part of my speculation on why his impact appears to lag well behind his box numbers. The other part is his defense (which was generally a bit lackadaisical).

Some time ago, I’d done some research on Dantley’s impact using game log data. Here’s how it shapes out year-by-year from ‘80 thru ‘88 (basically his whole prime):

‘80
22-46 (.324), -6.02 SRS with; 2-12 (.143), -4.22 SRS without (win% is better, but SRS worse when he played)

‘81
28-52 (.350), -5.91 SRS with; 0-2, -9.31 SRS without him.

’82
25-56 (.309), -5.50 SRS with him; 0-1, -16.25 SRS without.

’83
9-13 (.409), -5.44 SRS with him; 21-39 (.350), -3.77 SRS without.

’84
45-34 (.570), +0.91 SRS with him; 0-3, -1.86 SRS without.

’85
28-27 (.509), +0.76 SRS with him; 13-14 (.481), -2.52 SRS without.

’86
38-38 (.500), -0.94 SRS with him; 4-2 (.667), +2.81 SRS without.

’87
51-30 (.630), +3.53 SRS with him; 1-0, +2.58 SRS without.

’88
44-25 (.638), +5.05 SRS with him; 10-3 (.769), +7.61 SRS without.


Average "Dantley effect"
NOT weighted for games played/missed *only three years data for ORtg (‘86-’88)
-1.2 ORtg*
+1.26 SRS
Weighted for games PLAYED
-1.5 ORtg*
+1.63 SRS
Weighted for games MISSED
+1.8 ORtg*
-0.52 SRS
51-76 (.402) record w/o him, 290-321 (.475) record with---->on average adds 6 wins per 82-game season to a mediocre team.


Overall, while this is a noisy method, his impact appears decidedly well below superstar level (at times not even "all-star" level).
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
User avatar
Moonbeam
Forum Mod - Blazers
Forum Mod - Blazers
Posts: 10,313
And1: 5,096
Joined: Feb 21, 2009
Location: Sydney, Australia
     

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#25 » by Moonbeam » Mon Aug 17, 2015 11:07 pm

trex_8063 wrote:One could argue he didn’t have much offensive help. And while that’s true to a degree, he supporting cast wasn’t worthless on the offensive end.
In ‘80 he had an aging Ron Boone, 17 games with Pete Maravich, 19 games with a young Bernard King.
In ‘81 King and Maravich were gone and Boone was a year older; but Rickey Pierce and a rookie Dr. Dunkenstein had joined the team.
In ‘83 John Drew had joined the team (though he missed 38 games).
In ‘84 a rookie Thurl Bailey joined the team.
In ‘85 rookie John Stockton arrived.
In ‘86 rookie Karl Malone joined the team.


A lot of these players look better in name than their impact may suggest, however. Maravich's effect on offenses for Atlanta and New Orleans looks considerably worse than Dantley's. Bernard King was a head case at that point who was suspended after sexual assault charges. Boone was solid, but well past his prime. Griffith put up points on below (sometimes quite a bit below) average efficiency. The offense tumbled when he was more prominently featured in both 1983 and 1985 (when Dantley missed the most games). I like Bailey, but his impact came more on the defensive end. Karl Malone was RAW as a rookie. He was a bit of a turnover machine and his free throw shooting was a woeful .481. He was still raw in 1987 (though improved), and didn't really seem to have big impact on that end until 1988.

That leaves the point guards. Green was a solid starting-level PG. He even made an All-Star team in 1984. Don't want to take anything away from him. Stockton obviously is a legend and was already pretty good even as a bench player for his first 3 years.

If you look at the expected offensive win shares for Dantley's teammates in Utah, they were pretty much always among the bottom 5, usually among the bottom 3.

It's fair to say that Dantley didn't necessarily make his teammates all that much better. His impact was more a matter of the addition of his individual impact rather than how it affected his teammates. But those teammates were definitely nothing to write home about on the offensive end.
User avatar
MrBigShot
RealGM
Posts: 18,529
And1: 20,069
Joined: Dec 18, 2010
 

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#26 » by MrBigShot » Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:09 am

Talented, but not top 40. In my opinion he's the textbook example of how stats (including advanced stats) , if used without context, can be deceiving.
"They say you miss 100% of the shots you take" - Mike James
trex_8063
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 12,595
And1: 8,224
Joined: Feb 24, 2013
     

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#27 » by trex_8063 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 2:15 am

Moonbeam wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:One could argue he didn’t have much offensive help. And while that’s true to a degree, he supporting cast wasn’t worthless on the offensive end.
In ‘80 he had an aging Ron Boone, 17 games with Pete Maravich, 19 games with a young Bernard King.
In ‘81 King and Maravich were gone and Boone was a year older; but Rickey Pierce and a rookie Dr. Dunkenstein had joined the team.
In ‘83 John Drew had joined the team (though he missed 38 games).
In ‘84 a rookie Thurl Bailey joined the team.
In ‘85 rookie John Stockton arrived.
In ‘86 rookie Karl Malone joined the team.


A lot of these players look better in name than their impact may suggest, however. Maravich's effect on offenses for Atlanta and New Orleans looks considerably worse than Dantley's. Bernard King was a head case at that point who was suspended after sexual assault charges. Boone was solid, but well past his prime. Griffith put up points on below (sometimes quite a bit below) average efficiency.


Objection sustained on Maravich (my criticism of him as well); can't be denied he was a unique offensive talent for the time period though. At any rate, I acknowledged he was only around for 17 games anyway.

I acknowledged King wasn't around much (just 19 games), though perhaps you're right it's not even fair to invoke his name, as he obviously wasn't the Bernard King we'd come to know yet.

I acknowledged it was an "aging" Ron Boone; he was still pretty solid, though.

Griffin really only had one season while Dantley was around where he was quite a bit below league avg on efficiency.

Malone was indeed kinda raw as a rookie.

Moonbeam wrote:That leaves the point guards. Green was a solid starting-level PG. He even made an All-Star team in 1984. Don't want to take anything away from him. Stockton obviously is a legend and was already pretty good even as a bench player for his first 3 years.


I didn't realize until your reply that I'd written Rickey Pierce in my post. Thanks for catching that.
Stockton was fairly solid right from the get-go.

Moonbeam wrote:If you look at the expected offensive win shares for Dantley's teammates in Utah, they were pretty much always among the bottom 5, usually among the bottom 3.


Is that stat perfect enough to directly translate into "bottom 3-5 offensive supporting casts"? idk, just meant as a rhetorical.

But let's suppose it does mean just that.......I kinda think the same could be said of a supporting cast of Pat Garrity, Darrell Armstrong, Mike Miller, over-35-Horace Grant, Troy Hudson, and ~15 games/season of post-injury Grant Hill (TMac's help in Orlando). Ditto a cast of Lamar Odom, Smush Parker, Kwame Brown, Luke Walton, Devean George, Brian Cook, Chris Mihm, and Sasha Vujacic.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
User avatar
Moonbeam
Forum Mod - Blazers
Forum Mod - Blazers
Posts: 10,313
And1: 5,096
Joined: Feb 21, 2009
Location: Sydney, Australia
     

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#28 » by Moonbeam » Tue Aug 18, 2015 5:58 am

trex_8063 wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:If you look at the expected offensive win shares for Dantley's teammates in Utah, they were pretty much always among the bottom 5, usually among the bottom 3.


Is that stat perfect enough to directly translate into "bottom 3-5 offensive supporting casts"? idk, just meant as a rhetorical.

But let's suppose it does mean just that.......I kinda think the same could be said of a supporting cast of Pat Garrity, Darrell Armstrong, Mike Miller, over-35-Horace Grant, Troy Hudson, and ~15 games/season of post-injury Grant Hill (TMac's help in Orlando). Ditto a cast of Lamar Odom, Smush Parker, Kwame Brown, Luke Walton, Devean George, Brian Cook, Chris Mihm, and Sasha Vujacic.


Your mileage may vary, but at a team level, offensive win shares are very, very strongly correlated with O Rating. That's why I looked at decomposing them based on expected offensive win shares using aging curves.

Here is what Dantley's teammates were "expected" to produce while in Utah in the way of OWS:

1980: 10.54
1981: 8.33
1982: 4.92
1983: 10.38 (this bump is in large part because there were more minutes to be played with Dantley injured)
1984: 4.96
1985: 5.28
1986: 5.83

Here are the expected OWS of the teammates you mention for other superstars, along with a few others you haven't mentioned:

T-Mac 2001: 15.85
T-Mac 2002: 17.37
T-Mac 2003: 11.95
T-Mac 2004: 11.17
Kobe 2005: 16.86
Kobe 2006: 13.13
Kobe 2007: 18.63
AI 2000: 15.32
AI 2001: 14.41
AI 2002: 15.05
AI 2003: 13.28
AI 2004: 8.54
AI 2005: 10.89
AI 2006: 13.72
Wade 2008: 5.48
Wade 2009: 9.80
Wade 2010: 9.11
LeBron 2007: 13.49
LeBron 2008: 13.54
LeBron 2009: 15.60
LeBron 2010: 17.96
Melo 2014: 17.43
Melo 2015: 6.75

None of these guys renowned for buoying their team's offenses had the consistent stretch of futility that Dantley had in Utah. Some of these guys I have ahead of Dantley (some well ahead) as offensive players, but based on this method, Dantley's help looks quite grim even by comparison to modern examples.

I seemed to have lost the code where I looked at the ranking of help each year for the best offensive player on each team (as judged by OWS), but if we include the whole team (and Dantley's high OWS), we get the following rankings for Dantley:

Utah 1980: 17/22
Utah 1981: 12/23
Utah 1982: 19/23
Utah 1983: 19/23
Utah 1984: 18/23
Utah 1985: 21/23
Utah 1986: 15/23

If I have time, I'll revisit this taking out the top player of OWS to evaluate just the "help", but I remember many times, Dantley's expected help was in the bottom 3 (or worse) of the league.
User avatar
bondom34
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 66,716
And1: 50,290
Joined: Mar 01, 2013

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#29 » by bondom34 » Tue Aug 18, 2015 6:20 am

I've never seen him play, and this thread may inspire me to find some video, great reading guys!
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 29,839
And1: 25,175
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#30 » by 70sFan » Tue Aug 18, 2015 8:07 am

chrismikayla wrote:
Quotatious wrote:
70sFan wrote:I don't like players like him. Volume ISO scorers who don't like and can't play defense. Beides scoring give your team nothing at all. BUT I LOVE DANTLEY GAME. He is for me amazing unique player. Unathletic and undersized for his position, but unguardable in one on one situations. Had every move down low, very strong, amazing pump fake, underrated shlasing ability which give him space to shoot from midrange.
I think he is underrated because there are not many videos about him in YouTube (I didn't see any Dantley highlight mix) nor many games from Jazz time. It would be nice if someone show his ability younger generation (I can't create basketball mixes :) )

Here's a short Dantley mix.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHKL_n1xCuI[/youtube]



LOL you and I were thinking the same thing I just posted this around the same time. :D

I saw this video, but I'm thinking about something like James Worthy or even Bernanrd King scoring compilation - over 20 min (about 10 King's) of scoring, passing, fooling every type of defender. That kind of mix shows how they scored tons of points, what moves they used against different type of defenders. This would be sooo cool with Dantley. :)
User avatar
Moonbeam
Forum Mod - Blazers
Forum Mod - Blazers
Posts: 10,313
And1: 5,096
Joined: Feb 21, 2009
Location: Sydney, Australia
     

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#31 » by Moonbeam » Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:52 am

70sFan wrote:
chrismikayla wrote:
Quotatious wrote:Here's a short Dantley mix.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHKL_n1xCuI[/youtube]



LOL you and I were thinking the same thing I just posted this around the same time. :D

I saw this video, but I'm thinking about something like James Worthy or even Bernanrd King scoring compilation - over 20 min (about 10 King's) of scoring, passing, fooling every type of defender. That kind of mix shows how they scored tons of points, what moves they used against different type of defenders. This would be sooo cool with Dantley. :)


That's definitely true. I think the fact that Utah was not a good team, and the fact that they weren't marketable, means that there isn't a lot of available footage. I can't wait for the digital archive to be made public so that people can dive in and learn more about Dantley (and others).
chrismikayla
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,141
And1: 2,989
Joined: Jun 16, 2014

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#32 » by chrismikayla » Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:13 pm

http://articles.latimes.com/1986-01-06/sports/sp-13578_1_adrian-dantley

This is a GREAT LA Times article from 1986 discussing Dantley's personality and how it may have affected what others thought of him. It also includes an interview with Jerry West who thought highly of AD. At the end of the article it spoke about his injury to his shooting wrist sustained from trying to strip the ball from Artis Gilmore on a rebound which may have led to his awkward shooting motion as it was hard for him to flex his shooting wrist so he shot using mostly his arm.

EDIT: Before this article I had no idea he played for the Lakers :oops: . Jerry West actually was against trading him which says a lot.
[gfycat][/gfycat]
G35
RealGM
Posts: 22,510
And1: 8,066
Joined: Dec 10, 2005
     

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#33 » by G35 » Wed Aug 19, 2015 3:29 pm

trex_8063 wrote:Mostly I’m going to echo what others have said: no, I don’t think he has a top 40 case, perhaps not even a sound top 50 case. Frankly, I think the forum overrated him at least marginally in awarding him #51 in the top 100 project.

He is a difficult one to rank, and definitely an interesting player study: an under-sized SF of limited athleticism who nonetheless managed to be one of the greatest individual scorers of all-time.
He was strong, I’ll give him that; this combined with a low center of gravity is perhaps what made him so good at posting up guys who often had 2-3” on him. Had a limited, but very effective, repertoire of post-moves, his signature one perhaps being the quick spin-move toward the baseline side (leaning INTO his defender) and putting it off the glass. Had enough of a mid-range shot to get defenders to bite on the pump-fake, whereupon he was probably an underrated slasher (favors going right, as far as I can tell: baseline angle toward the backboard/hoop if starting from the right side of the floor, across the middle of the lane if starting from the left). Was really good at protecting the ball with his body and elbows when driving, too; and obviously had a knack for drawing contact. Effective at working the baseline on back-door cuts, too.

And yet for all his effectiveness as an individual scorer, his talents didn’t translate into much TEAM offensive success. To some degree this isn’t something unique to Dantley. There are many instances in NBA history where offenses reliant on a single isolation scorer are not particularly good offenses (and particularly if the iso scorer isn’t an excellent playmaker, which Dantley wasn’t).

This phenomenon is more striking or noticeable with Dantley, however, for a couple of primary reasons (imo):
1) Because Dantley is such a hyper-elite scorer. I mean, statistically, he has a totally decent case as one of the five best scorers of all-time. When you fail to see a decent offense around a supposed GOAT-level scorer, it sort of makes you furrow your brow.
2) Because he so consistently was a part of mediocre or poor offenses throughout his prime.

Look at the Jazz team ORtg throughout the 1980’s while Dantley was with the team: there is only one season (ONE, out of SEVEN seasons they had with prime Dantley) in which their offense was even above average--->in ‘84: +1.4 rORTG, ranked 9th of 23 teams.
Each of the other six seasons their offense was below average (sometimes substantially so).

One could argue he didn’t have much offensive help. And while that’s true to a degree, he supporting cast wasn’t worthless on the offensive end.
In ‘80 he had an aging Ron Boone, 17 games with Pete Maravich, 19 games with a young Bernard King.
In ‘81 King and Maravich were gone and Boone was a year older; but Rickey Green and a rookie Dr. Dunkenstein had joined the team.
In ‘83 John Drew had joined the team (though he missed 38 games).
In ‘84 a rookie Thurl Bailey joined the team.
In ‘85 rookie John Stockton arrived.
In ‘86 rookie Karl Malone joined the team.

So overall, he certainly didn’t have it any worse than Tracy McGrady in Orlando, Kobe from ‘05-’07, or Lebron prior to ‘09. And he barely had it worse than Dominique during his prime years in Atlanta.

And yet none of TMac, Kobe, Lebron, or Dominique in the years specified ever had a team offense >2.0 below the league average. But Dantley did……four times, in the heart of his prime (admittedly one of those was the year he missed 60 rs games).

He was somewhat of a ball-stopper and a black-hole once given the rock. In watching some game footage from the mid-80’s Jazz you see a lot of Dantley taking the pass, the rest of the team stands around and watches for 4-8 seconds while Dantley does his thing; possibly followed by more standing around while Dantley shoots his FT’s…….it doesn’t exactly lend itself to his teammates finding any sort of offensive rhythm.

That’s part of my speculation on why his impact appears to lag well behind his box numbers. The other part is his defense (which was generally a bit lackadaisical).

Some time ago, I’d done some research on Dantley’s impact using game log data. Here’s how it shapes out year-by-year from ‘80 thru ‘88 (basically his whole prime):

‘80
22-46 (.324), -6.02 SRS with; 2-12 (.143), -4.22 SRS without (win% is better, but SRS worse when he played)

‘81
28-52 (.350), -5.91 SRS with; 0-2, -9.31 SRS without him.

’82
25-56 (.309), -5.50 SRS with him; 0-1, -16.25 SRS without.

’83
9-13 (.409), -5.44 SRS with him; 21-39 (.350), -3.77 SRS without.

’84
45-34 (.570), +0.91 SRS with him; 0-3, -1.86 SRS without.

’85
28-27 (.509), +0.76 SRS with him; 13-14 (.481), -2.52 SRS without.

’86
38-38 (.500), -0.94 SRS with him; 4-2 (.667), +2.81 SRS without.

’87
51-30 (.630), +3.53 SRS with him; 1-0, +2.58 SRS without.

’88
44-25 (.638), +5.05 SRS with him; 10-3 (.769), +7.61 SRS without.


Average "Dantley effect"
NOT weighted for games played/missed *only three years data for ORtg (‘86-’88)
-1.2 ORtg*
+1.26 SRS
Weighted for games PLAYED
-1.5 ORtg*
+1.63 SRS
Weighted for games MISSED
+1.8 ORtg*
-0.52 SRS
51-76 (.402) record w/o him, 290-321 (.475) record with---->on average adds 6 wins per 82-game season to a mediocre team.


Overall, while this is a noisy method, his impact appears decidedly well below superstar level (at times not even "all-star" level).



You can't judge individual impact by team oriented results......or so they tell me.....
I'm so tired of the typical......
GYK
General Manager
Posts: 8,948
And1: 2,669
Joined: Oct 08, 2014

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#34 » by GYK » Wed Aug 19, 2015 4:28 pm

Absolutely not. It's only 7 seasons. No way seven seasons get you in the top 40. We don't know why the discrepancy in efficiency exist on other teams. Scoring makes since as Utah sucked and he was their scorer. He wasn't a top ten 80's player. No way he makes it into the top 60(6 era's of basketball we comb over). Top 20 in the 80's, maybe? Top 120 is a possible distinction. But top 40 is crazy, that's like asking if Grant Hill is top 40.
Owly
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,616
And1: 3,133
Joined: Mar 12, 2010

Re: Should Adrian Dantley Be A Top 40 Player? 

Post#35 » by Owly » Wed Aug 19, 2015 5:50 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Moonbeam wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:One could argue he didn’t have much offensive help. And while that’s true to a degree, he supporting cast wasn’t worthless on the offensive end.
In ‘80 he had an aging Ron Boone, 17 games with Pete Maravich, 19 games with a young Bernard King.
In ‘81 King and Maravich were gone and Boone was a year older; but Rickey Pierce and a rookie Dr. Dunkenstein had joined the team.
In ‘83 John Drew had joined the team (though he missed 38 games).
In ‘84 a rookie Thurl Bailey joined the team.
In ‘85 rookie John Stockton arrived.
In ‘86 rookie Karl Malone joined the team.


A lot of these players look better in name than their impact may suggest, however. Maravich's effect on offenses for Atlanta and New Orleans looks considerably worse than Dantley's. Bernard King was a head case at that point who was suspended after sexual assault charges. Boone was solid, but well past his prime. Griffith put up points on below (sometimes quite a bit below) average efficiency.


Objection sustained on Maravich (my criticism of him as well); can't be denied he was a unique offensive talent for the time period though. At any rate, I acknowledged he was only around for 17 games anyway.

I acknowledged King wasn't around much (just 19 games), though perhaps you're right it's not even fair to invoke his name, as he obviously wasn't the Bernard King we'd come to know yet.

I acknowledged it was an "aging" Ron Boone; he was still pretty solid, though.

Griffin really only had one season while Dantley was around where he was quite a bit below league avg on efficiency.

Malone was indeed kinda raw as a rookie.

Moonbeam wrote:That leaves the point guards. Green was a solid starting-level PG. He even made an All-Star team in 1984. Don't want to take anything away from him. Stockton obviously is a legend and was already pretty good even as a bench player for his first 3 years.


I didn't realize until your reply that I'd written Rickey Pierce in my post. Thanks for catching that.
Stockton was fairly solid right from the get-go.

Moonbeam wrote:If you look at the expected offensive win shares for Dantley's teammates in Utah, they were pretty much always among the bottom 5, usually among the bottom 3.


Is that stat perfect enough to directly translate into "bottom 3-5 offensive supporting casts"? idk, just meant as a rhetorical.

But let's suppose it does mean just that.......I kinda think the same could be said of a supporting cast of Pat Garrity, Darrell Armstrong, Mike Miller, over-35-Horace Grant, Troy Hudson, and ~15 games/season of post-injury Grant Hill (TMac's help in Orlando). Ditto a cast of Lamar Odom, Smush Parker, Kwame Brown, Luke Walton, Devean George, Brian Cook, Chris Mihm, and Sasha Vujacic.

King wasn't just "not the Bernard King ..." yet, he was in the midst of severe substance abuse problems as well as the aforementioned legal troubles. Not only did he play just 19 games, he played just 22.1mpg (for 419 a total minutes on the season), shot 54% from the line and put up (sometimes quite substantially) sub-replacement level advanced metrics (11.4 PER; -0.002 WS/48; -4 BPM). He's a long, long way from the image invoked by the name, he's a liability and a distraction.

Utah Boone isn't King in terms of chemistry but he's playing around the same level (11.1; 0.006; -4.3).

On Griffith it somewhat depends on what "quite a bit" is. Griffith is taking a large role and shooting about 2.5 TS "percent" (or .025) worse than league average. Now whether that's because Dantley is leaving him with bailouts etc is perhaps arguable, but he doesn’t look great.

To cut a long story short
http://bkref.com/tiny/R20jX

For instance one simplistic analysis:
teammates above average in PER (15) OWS/48 (.05) and BPM (0)

Name; minutes on Jazz 80-86; PER; OWS/48; OBPM
Rickey Green; 14123; 16.8; 0.070013453; 1.1
Allan Bristow; 4305; 15.8; 0.051289199; 0.5
John Drew; 3466; 19.5; 0.067859204; 1.2
Terry Furlow; 1718; 16; 0.053084983; 0.8
Brad Davis; 225; 16; 0.128; 0.8

Two out of three
Darrell Griffith; 13677; 15.6; 0.007720991; 0.2
John Stockton; 3425; 15.4; 0.051854015; -0.8
Tom Boswell; 1816; 14; 0.066079295; 0.2
Boswell misses on PER by a smallish distance, Stockton on OBPM by a fair one, Griffith on OWS/48 by a fairly large one.

Green looks comfortably above average; as does Drew (moreso, though in limited minutes, and whilst playing the same position as Dantley). Davis looks quite good in 200ish minutes. Bristow plays SF too but is a little above average, Furlow plays very few minutes and also is a little above average. The others depend on your trust in various metrics, but none blow you away.


The main point, names aside, is that the players at the top of that minutes list (lower too, but the players getting big minutes are what matter) are often quite substantially bad offensively (Wilkins and Eaton notably). Meanwhile Green is the best high minutes guy (depending on preffered metric, perhaps by quite a distance) and it's arguable whether he's quite reached "good" or just "above average" (I'd probably lean the former, but it's arguable).

There is admittedly an element of circularity in these methods because in claiming they cause a poor offense, this uses numbers that I think draw upon team offense. But then Dantley looks so vastly different, despite “meh or worse” team numbers.
Adrian Dantley; 17899; 24.1; 0.178333985; 6.2

Of course Dantley's should be a lot higher (numerically than his teammates), he's an all-time great. And I don't know where Dantley belongs on these lists. He wasn't a great defender, probably wasn't quite as good as his numbers offensively, and WOWY-team impact type stuff is disconcerting (though as with this team level stuff there are contextual mitigators, for instance '89 Detroit's season turning point probably happened about 8 ish games before the Dantley-Aguirre trade; Utah having Drew as a replacement for him). So I don't know.

I just guess I'd have focused on highlighting other aspects of the discussion (the merits of WoWY analysis, versus "should Dantley be held responsible for lousy team offensive rebounding") rather than defending invoking those names. I say this because whilst technically true, they were often a long way off the standard implied by those names (or didn't play much), so even though this was usually acknowledged to some degree, that only raises the question, "was it worth bringing them up".

Regarding the latest line of reasoning I'll leave it to Moonbeam's analysis/numbers, except to add that I don't think anyone claims Dantley had apex McGrady's impact for an extended spell (that hypothetical guy's probably at least top 25) and that as those numbers suggest whilst others have played on bad teams, they're probably not as bad (e.g. '06 Lakers not big names, and Kobe provided huge lift, and was needed to take a large usage burden but Odom, a hot/flukey Brian Cook, Smush Parker, Luke Walton, Kwame Brown and a healthy Chris Mihm range from the good i.e. Odom, to "not a massive burden", there's no Eaton or Wilkins level liabilities).

Return to Player Comparisons