Is Lillard overrated?

[Blazers20]

He's a very good player but do you guys think he's overrated? Didn't he make two all star teams because of injuries? Would you put him in the top tier of point guards with Westbrook-Curry-Paul? Does he make this years all star team?

[Fitz303]

He made the last year due to injury. Not the first year. I don't think he's overrated at all. If anything, I think he's starting to get hated on unjustly. I just wrote about this in a trade thread...

Lillard hurt his hand on December 5th, and his 3pt shooting suffered after that. You can see in his season splits. He shot 42% from 3 up until he hurt his hand. He plummeted after that. Time will tell if his shot comes back around. But his FG% at the rim last season was leaps and bounds better than it was his first 2 seasons. If he gets his 3pt shot back near 40% again, he'll be right back into the top 5 PG conversation.

All Star Guards that Damian Lillard shot a better FG% than, at the rim, this year - Westbrook, Harden, Wall, Irving, Lowry, Teague, Paul (tied)

The only players that were better at finishing at the rim were Curry, Wade, and Thompson (ridiculously high %ast'd). The reason I bring this up is that this was one of Lillard's biggest knocks going into last year. He's a relentless worker. He turned it around last year, and quietly became one of the best guards at finishing around the rim last season. His shot suffered, but time will tell if that comes back.

[zzaj]

It depends on what you mean by overrated...based on the branding/PR push he gets? Yes. Based on the stats he accrues vs. other players at his position? Yes. Based on what he means to the Trailblazer franchise? No. You certainly can't base it on Allstar game appearances because the voting is mostly a joke. He probably won't make the Allstar team this year because team losses have weight in the voting and he is competing in a league stacked with great players at his position--some of which will be leading teams to winning records.

This will be a huge year for Lillard. If he can find a way to unselfishly adjust and make his teammates better in a "chemistry" way that translates to Ws, instead of just going all Westbrook, it'll be huge for the franchise. IMO, as long as he doesn't believe the hype and keeps the same mentality that got him to the place he is today, he'll be a top 5 all-time player for the Blazers and probably a top 15 talent in the NBA.

[Ripcity4life]

I would not say overrated but over hyped atm -- after he made the shot in the playoffs i think most fans expected too much from him. He did regress a little in terms of shot selection and such but he is still a real good player who has it in him to be a top 5 point guard. I will go as far to say better then LA IF he can become more consistent and improve on a few area's in his game. Basically dame is a victim of his own success because he did so much so fast that fan's expectations went from realistic to unrealistic.

The one thing i do know is this season we find out just how good dame is not from the win total but how he adapts to being the face of the team and how his game matures cause of it.

[PDX MM]

He was being overrated but that has quickly changed.

[Moonbeam]

He was being overrated but that has quickly changed.

This, definitely. He was being listed as a top 10 player and some were even saying that he was better than Chis Paul. The Clipper games this year showed that not to be the case. After his All-Star comments, however, it feels like the perception has changed (at least on the General Board here).

Let's see how he is ranked in the ESPN top 500 before the season.

[PDXKnight]

He was being overrated but that has quickly changed.

This, definitely. He was being listed as a top 10 player and some were even saying that he was better than Chis Paul. The Clipper games this year showed that not to be the case. After his All-Star comments, however, it feels like the perception has changed (at least on the General Board here).

Let's see how he is ranked in the ESPN top 500 before the season.

I don't think the ranking will change in the pre season, we will start to see it as the season goes on for sure though. Lillard will more than likely be underrated by the end of this seaosn considering that star players on small market teams in the lotto tend to be ranked a lot lower than star players on playoff teams or big market teams in the lotto

[Blazers-1977]

No

[Blazers20]

I see Lillard as a mid tier point guard with the likes of Lowry, Teague and Rondo. He's a very good player with holes in his game
(specifically defense). I think he's no where near Curry-Paul-Westbrook and a tier below Kyrie-Parker-Rose. I'm curious too see if he's still a low 20's per game player even after LA. Will he jack up 20plus shots per game or will he become a true leader and make his teammates better. Will he set up teammates and put them in a position to score or will he be greedy and only look for his shots? Could McCollum be as good or possibly better than Lillard? McCollum looked pretty good last year against Memphis.

[GreenRiddler]

I see Lillard as a mid tier point guard with the likes of Lowry, Teague and Rondo. He's a very good player with holes in his game
(specifically defense). I think he's no where near Curry-Paul-Westbrook and a tier below Kyrie-Parker-Rose. I'm curious too see if he's still a low 20's per game player even after LA. Will he jack up 20plus shots per game or will he become a true leader and make his teammates better. Will he set up teammates and put them in a position to score or will he be greedy and only look for his shots? Could McCollum be as good or possibly better than Lillard? McCollum looked pretty good last year against Memphis.

Why?

It is your opinion and I can't knock you for it, but None of that tier has averaged 20ppg ever year they have played. In a down year from 3 Lillard averaged 21ppg.

How is Kyrie better? Don't give me the defense excuse, he is worse than Lillard and D isn't very important at the PG position. Is it Cause he is more efficient? having LBJ on your team is known to make you more efficient. Never mind the fact Kyrie has never had better years than Dame and had similar scoring outputs (Slightly lower)

I mean it is just your opinion so I can't hate on you for it but I disagree strogly. I think Lillard is a top 4 PG, right behind Curry Westbrook and CP3 (in that order) .

I mean for crikey sakes, Parker had one of the worst years in his career was abysmal in the playoffs, and so was Rose! but they are better? How so?

[GreenRiddler]

No, but he goes at people on social media, and because of that it makes non-blazer fans salty and they blow up anytime he struggles, like Curry and Westbrook/CP3 never struggle.

No one can make a factual arguement to me that he is't a top 5 PG in this league, with that being said he is NOT overrated, because he didn't even make the all NBA team.

I still remember when people use to say Dragic deserved the Allstar nod over him, Dragic had a good year, but he never repeated it and probably never will, can't say the same about Dame.

[Blazers20]

I'm looking at it as a whole and I understand they have had bad years and possibly bad stretches but I'm looking at their full resumes at what they have done to date. Rose is a perennial all star, All NBA, Olympian and NBA MVP, Kyrie is a perennial all star, all NBA, a part of USA basketball and Parker championship series MVP, all NBA and a NBA all star. Lillard is all NBA and 2 time all star (1 all star appearance due to injury but I really thought it was 2 die to injury).

Like I said Lillard is good but he's not a perennial all star unless he blows up this year and scores 25+ ppg and 8 apg.

[Fitz303]

I'm looking at it as a whole and I understand they have had bad years and possibly bad stretches but I'm looking at their full resumes at what they have done to date. Rose is a perennial all star, All NBA, Olympian and NBA MVP, Kyrie is a perennial all star, all NBA, a part of USA basketball and Parker championship series MVP, all NBA and a NBA all star. Lillard is all NBA and 2 time all star (1 all star appearance due to injury but I really thought it was 2 die to injury).

Like I said Lillard is good but he's not a perennial all star unless he blows up this year and scores 25+ ppg and 8 apg.

First, I don't put any stock into a players ability being based on the fact that they were or weren't on the USA national team. Kenneth Faried and Mason Plumlee were major players on there, and Derrick Rose was on there last year, and he had ZERO business being out there over Lillard or Wall. That team was about who fit Coach K's system, and who played for Coach K in college.

Second, Irving has been in the league one more year than Lillard, and has one more all star appearance (almost everybody in the NBA community felt Lillard was snubbed big time with not getting in on the initial voting). He has ONE third team all NBA honor, which is exactly what Lillard has. I don't see how Irving is, in any way, better than Lillard. Rose is a shell of his former self, and not in the same category. If you want to talk about body of work, to date, then yeah Rose has it. But he's been around a lot longer, and I don't think it's coming back.

Paul and Curry are the class of PGs right now

Westbrook, Lillard, Irving, and Wall are the next guys in line. Lowry and Conley are right there as well. Parker was near the top at one point, and certainly has hardware, but he's just not the same anymore. Last year was not very good for Parker, and his performance in the playoffs was straight up garbage.

Lillard had great points last year, and low points. He's still getting better. But regardless of his 3pt slump, and questionable shot selection at times, he still put up very good numbers, on a 50 win team. He's a top level PG. I don't think it's very debatable. However, this year will show a lot about just how good he really is.

[Agenda42]

No one can make a factual arguement to me that he is't a top 5 PG in this league, with that being said he is NOT overrated, because he didn't even make the all NBA team.

It's pretty easy to put Lillard outside the top 5 PGs. He's really bad on the defensive end. He improved quite a lot last year and is still really bad.

Chris Paul is the clear class of the league.
Stephen Curry is the reigning MVP.
Russell Westbrook is a physical freak, basically the second coming of Oscar Robertson.

For me, there is absolutely no question those guys are ahead of Lillard today. Then we have a pack with:

Kyrie Irving, who's rather a lot like Lillard. He plays for the LeBrons, so most people are going to rank him higher than some kid losing in Portland.
John Wall can't score like Lillard, but he's a very good defender and is up around 10 apg. Probably most people take Wall over Lillard.

So that's 5, and it feels quite reasonable. Myself, I'd add one more name. I think Mike Conley gives you a better chance to win games today than Lillard. He's not flashy, but he's dramatically better on defense and not much worse on offense.

[GreenRiddler]

No one can make a factual arguement to me that he is't a top 5 PG in this league, with that being said he is NOT overrated, because he didn't even make the all NBA team.

It's pretty easy to put Lillard outside the top 5 PGs. He's really bad on the defensive end. He improved quite a lot last year and is still really bad.

Chris Paul is the clear class of the league.
Stephen Curry is the reigning MVP.
Russell Westbrook is a physical freak, basically the second coming of Oscar Robertson.

For me, there is absolutely no question those guys are ahead of Lillard today. Then we have a pack with:

Kyrie Irving, who's rather a lot like Lillard. He plays for the LeBrons, so most people are going to rank him higher than some kid losing in Portland.
John Wall can't score like Lillard, but he's a very good defender and is up around 10 apg. Probably most people take Wall over Lillard.

So that's 5, and it feels quite reasonable. Myself, I'd add one more name. I think Mike Conley gives you a better chance to win games today than Lillard. He's not flashy, but he's dramatically better on defense and not much worse on offense.

I had forgot about Conley, I would put him in the discussion as well, he can score from a lot of different areas of the floor but not 1 specific area is he dominant at like Lillard and those other 20+ppg scorers are.

I however don't rank defense that high in terms of PGs, for example, John wall is seen as a better defender, but unjustly IMO. He earned that rep through playing the lanes and getting steals, but synergy shows he is worse as a PnR defender than Dame, which is the number 1 area of defense for PGs by a large margin, followed by Iso defense, which again, doesn't follow the narrative Dame is much worse than Wall on D.

Of course synergy isn't perfect, so looking at other things like DBPM and DWS or D rating and they all don't show wall to have a big advantage.

But like I said, I think PG is the one position out of the 5 where I would choose to have a below avg or avg defender, because they just don't have much of an impact on a team's defense. For Example, CP3 the absolute best PG defender over the past 3 years, had a worse team on Defense than the consensus bad defender that is Dame pretty much all year long. No matter how much better CP3 was on Defense than Dame, his team struggled on that end whereas the Blazers succeeded.

If you take a look at the offensive categories between Wall and Dame, the only big advantage he has is Asts and FG % ( although EFG% and TS% say otherwise), everything else is either the same or a noticeable advantage to Dame. VORP WS PER TS % EFG% PPG Etc.

He is a better passer than Dame, but so is Lawson and Rubio. Wall can't shoot threes in the Era of the three point shot and has never scored 20 PPG in a season nor does he get to the line at a higher rate than Dame. Offensively Dame is better and my reality based assumption here is defense isn't THAT important for PGs, since it doesn't lead to a better team defense and bad defense doesn't lead to a worse team defense therefore making it irrelevant to me, but if it was Wall doesn't have the kind of defensive advantage over Lillard that Lillard has over him on offense.


As for Conley, the same rules apply, I just don't think his defense is the reason for the Grizz success on that end, but his capabilities on offense are, and his capabilities on offense are inferior to Lillard's. Even more so than that of Wall. it appears. Better 3 point shooter than Wall but he is a low volume 3 point shooter, more of a bases covered than a big time asset. He is also not the passer that Wall is, more on Dame's level, but doesn't have the scoring power that Dame does. Even if he shoots better Percentages from the field, he has a lower TS% and equal EFG% Doesn't get to the line more or have better advanced stats. With that said he is also inferior to Dame.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=lillada01&y2=2015&p2=walljo01&y3=2015&p3=conlemi01&p4=&p5=&p6=

I still only se Curry Westbrook and CP3 as clear cut better than Dame. That puts him 4th in my book.

[Agenda42]

I however don't rank defense that high in terms of PGs, for example, John wall is seen as a better defender, but unjustly IMO. He earned that rep through playing the lanes and getting steals, but synergy shows he is worse as a PnR defender than Dame, which is the number 1 area of defense for PGs by a large margin, followed by Iso defense, which again, doesn't follow the narrative Dame is much worse than Wall on D.

I wouldn't trust those stats. The Blazers bend over backwards to hide Lillard on defense as much as they can.

In particular, Lillard's screen man may as well be made of velcro. He's really gotta fix this.

But like I said, I think PG is the one position out of the 5 where I would choose to have a below avg or avg defender, because they just don't have much of an impact on a team's defense. For Example, CP3 the absolute best PG defender over the past 3 years, had a worse team on Defense than the consensus bad defender that is Dame pretty much all year long. No matter how much better CP3 was on Defense than Dame, his team struggled on that end whereas the Blazers succeeded.

It's not a very interesting comparison to me. The Clippers are loaded with useless defenders, while the rest of the Blazer starters are all plus defenders at their position.

One thing I'll mention here is that Matthews took all the difficult PG assignments for the Blazers. When he got hurt, Afflalo wasn't quick enough laterally to do that anymore, so Lillard took them. I think it's a big reason why the Blazers folded down the stretch.

If you take a look at the offensive categories between Wall and Dame, the only big advantage he has is Asts and FG % ( although EFG% and TS% say otherwise), everything else is either the same or a noticeable advantage to Dame. VORP WS PER TS % EFG% PPG Etc.

Lillard versus Wall on offense basically comes down to whether you want your PG to shoot threes or create assists. I expect Wall is better for some rosters and Lillard is better for others.

my reality based assumption here is defense isn't THAT important for PGs, since it doesn't lead to a better team defense and bad defense doesn't lead to a worse team defense

I can buy defense being less important for PGs than for Cs. I'd be absolutely shocked if better PG defense doesn't correlate with better team defense. Just eyeballing it from last season, the worst 5 teams on DRtg mostly started:
Ricky Rubio / Mo Williams
Jeremy Lin
Jose Calderon / Langston Galloway
Ray McCallum / Darren Collison
Ty Lawson

The only guy on this list who's even passable defensively is Collison. Ty Lawson has been a good defender in the past, but this past season he was too drunk to check anyone.

The best 5 teams on DRtg mostly started:
Steph Curry (average)
Tony Parker (weak)
Brandon Knight (average to good)
Mike Conley (very good)
John Wall (very good)

I'd have to do more study with a database to produce something statistically relevant, but the first pass check here says that bad defenses have bad defensive PGs and good defenses mostly don't.

[dunlop212]

There are guys who are effective because the defense is focused on someone else, and guys who are effective when they are the main guy. We will know which type he is in November.

[deanwoof]

Yes. Adidas has done a good job promotion him.

[cucad8]

There are guys who are effective because the defense is focused on someone else, and guys who are effective when they are the main guy. We will know which type he is in November.

Do you really think that defenses didn't focus on Lillard last season?

[a_sensei]

There are guys who are effective because the defense is focused on someone else, and guys who are effective when they are the main guy. We will know which type he is in November.

Do you really think that defenses didn't focus on Lillard last season?

Not like they will this year. Last year defenses focused on LMA and Lillard, but also had to worry about rotating for the 3 point kick outs (especially Wes who was deadly) and defending the effective opo-side Batum/RoLo P&R.