Colabello???

lobosloboslobos · Post #1 » by **lobosloboslobos** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:13 pm

Where did this guy come from and how long can we go on with him not being a full-time starter? He has been hitting .330 with power and getting clutch hits all season long. How come nobody is talking about him and what he's doing?

He's had a very interesting career to this point, going undrafted and playing in various independent leagues for 7 years before finally being given a shot by the Twins 2 years ago, where he broke Kirby Puckett's team record for most RBIs in a month (26) before tailing off badly and being waived.

But he appears to have been a very good hitter everywhere he went in the minors, so his results are not coming out of nowhere. Maybe he didn't like it in Minny or was not well coached or something. But for whatever reason in his biggest MLB opportunity to date he is absolutely killing it.

I gather that his fielding is below par but how bad does it have to be to keep a .330 hitter with power out of the lineup?

He has such a sweet swing I can't help feeling this guy could be really key for us.

joseph227 · Post #2 » by **joseph227** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:33 pm

Smoak is probably a better player in the long run. Cola's offense has been driven by an unsustainable BABIP.

Lateral Quicks · Post #3 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 3:45 pm

It's a lock at this point that he'll be back next year.

Jays4WS · Post #4 » by **Jays4WS** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:35 pm

lobosloboslobos wrote:Where did this guy come from and how long can we go on with him not being a full-time starter? He has been hitting .330 with power and getting clutch hits all season long. How come nobody is talking about him and what he's doing?

He's had a very interesting career to this point, going undrafted and playing in various independent leagues for 7 years before finally being given a shot by the Twins 2 years ago, where he broke Kirby Puckett's team record for most RBIs in a month (26) before tailing off badly and being waived.

But he appears to have been a very good hitter everywhere he went in the minors, so his results are not coming out of nowhere. Maybe he didn't like it in Minny or was not well coached or something. But for whatever reason in his biggest MLB opportunity to date he is absolutely killing it.

I gather that his fielding is below par but how bad does it have to be to keep a .330 hitter with power out of the lineup?

He has such a sweet swing I can't help feeling this guy could be really key for us.

Cola has a lot of haters, especially on some hockey forum Jays thread who think they know it all. Problem was he was being used in positions that weren't suited for him (outfield).

Smoak is still better defensively at 1B, but Cola has the better bat right now.

keunganator · Post #5 » by **keunganator** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 4:48 pm

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/76376150/twins-chris-colabello-has-a-story-to-tell

This article sums up Coca-Cola's career before he joined the Jays.

s e n s i · Post #6 » by **s e n s i** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:10 pm

excellent hitter but as mentioned it's at least partially a product of a BABIP that's been in the .450 range for the much of the season. he's replacement-level if that ever normalized.

Suga2Panda · Post #7 » by **Suga2Panda** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 5:38 pm

joseph227 wrote:Smoak is probably a better player in the long run. Cola's offense has been driven by an unsustainable BABIP.

I like stats and all, but Isn't it too early to tell where his BABIP will stabalize at?

joseph227 · Post #8 » by **joseph227** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:18 pm

Suga2Panda wrote:
joseph227 wrote:Smoak is probably a better player in the long run. Cola's offense has been driven by an unsustainable BABIP.

I like stats and all, but Isn't it too early to tell where his BABIP will stabalize at?

It wont stay at .406 I can tell you that.

-MetA4- · Post #9 » by **-MetA4-** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:22 pm

Suga2Panda wrote:I like stats and all, but Isn't it too early to tell where his BABIP will stabalize at?

League average BABIP is ~.300

A guy like Cola who is currently sitting at .400+ BABIP (FanGraphs is currently down so I can't get the exact number) is due for a pretty significant regression.

Michael Bradley · Post #10 » by **Michael Bradley** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:17 pm

.406 BABIP, 5.9% BB%, 24.3% K%

His performance is not sustainable. It's a good thing he's been able to sustain it for as long as he has as far as the Jays are concerned, and his defensive value took a huge hit moreso because he was being trotted out in LF when he isn't an outfielder, but to expect that type of offense going forward is simply not realistic.

Suga2Panda · Post #11 » by **Suga2Panda** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 7:49 pm

joseph227 wrote:
Suga2Panda wrote:
joseph227 wrote:Smoak is probably a better player in the long run. Cola's offense has been driven by an unsustainable BABIP.

I like stats and all, but Isn't it too early to tell where his BABIP will stabalize at?

It wont stay at .406 I can tell you that.

No doubt, but Justin Smoak isn't exactly hard to replace.

COY0607 · Post #12 » by **COY0607** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:01 pm

one of the most trusted guys in the line up for me- when he's at the plate, I just expect him to get on base

perfect bench player

-MetA4- · Post #13 » by **-MetA4-** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 8:10 pm

COY0607 wrote:one of the most trusted guys in the line up for me- when he's at the plate, I just expect him to get on base

He walks just 5.9% of the time. His "get on base" ability is entirely tied up to his incredibly flukey ability to produce hits. Ride it while its hot, but you have to see it for what it is. His BABIP in 2013 and 2014 with the Twins was .253 and .308, and he was a negative player in those years.

lobosloboslobos · Post #14 » by **lobosloboslobos** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:57 pm

-MetA4- wrote:
COY0607 wrote:one of the most trusted guys in the line up for me- when he's at the plate, I just expect him to get on base

He walks just 5.9% of the time. His "get on base" ability is entirely tied up to his incredibly flukey ability to produce hits. Ride it while its hot, but you have to see it for what it is. His BABIP in 2013 and 2014 with the Twins was .253 and .308, and he was a negative player in those years.

You can call it 'his incredibly flukey ability to produce hits' but you could also call it a guy hitting .330 in late August.

In Minny he had a grand total of 365 at bats so I don't know how you can be so sure what he will regress to. He doesn't need to hit .330 to be a guy who deserves to play. .300 will do just fine. Smoak is hitting .219. And his career batting average (2000+ at bats) is .224

Trilogy · Post #15 » by **Trilogy** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 10:38 pm

He's definitely going to regress with his peripherals but his line drive rate is extremely good this year. If he keeps that up he can still be a good hitter.

Lateral Quicks · Post #16 » by **Lateral Quicks** » Sun Aug 23, 2015 11:17 pm

The thing about Colabello is he'll be making the minimum for the next couple years if I'm not mistaken. There's no reason for him not to be back on the roster next year. They won't get anyone better for the price, and if he tanks they can move on very easily.

Randle McMurphy · Post #17 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 12:20 am

Even taking into account an expected decline in his BABIP, Colabello's projected wRC+ for the rest of the season is 109. He's simply a better hitter than Smoak (99 wRC+ ROS projection) and probably should start getting more starts against RHPs.

Post #18 » by **CPT** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 1:52 am

I remember thinking his name sounded familiar, and realized he almost ended up in Korea a year or two ago but the Twins wouldn't grant his release.

I bet he'd be crushing it over here.

Glad he's doing so with the Jays instead.

dballislife · Post #19 » by **dballislife** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:04 am

have no idea why it took this guy so long, hes huge at 6'4 230, super strong...he has a simple swing and approach too, and for a big guy he doesnt look to crush the ball every swing which is nice, just really knows how to hit and uses the entire field

if he keeps putting in time and effort on defense, should be great 1B/DH/bench bat for us

Jays4WS · Post #20 » by **Jays4WS** » Mon Aug 24, 2015 2:13 am

I won't make a bold statement and say he's similar to Edwin and Bautista but there is such things as late bloomers. They just got to figure it out at the plate sometimes, a couple adjustments is all it takes. Those two are proven examples of that.

The amount of hate the guys gets is amazing. It reminds me of the E5 days, now everyone in love with Edwing.