Bradley Beal - Part II

[TheSecretWeapon]

Cousins' PPA last season: 170. Gortat's PPA last season: 170.

I agree that it's fair to say that Cousins and Gortat aren't that far apart in terms of in-game impact at this point. The difference is that Cousins is 6 years younger; he plays as well as Gortat despite being totally undisciplined; and he does so alongside crappy teammates while playing against much better competition.

Yep, all fair points. Cousins has colossal talent.

[Ruzious]

Having seen what happens when we rely on guys like Javale McGee and Kevin Seraphin to get defensive rebounds, I'll still take my defensive rebounders over players who focus more on the offensive boards.

[Higga]

I'm probably one of the bigger Gortat fans(think he's pretty underrated)but I'd trade him in a heartbeat for Cousins. Wall to Cousins would wreck the East for the next decade.

[Ruzious]

Cousins' PPA last season: 170. Gortat's PPA last season: 170.

I agree that it's fair to say that Cousins and Gortat aren't that far apart in terms of in-game impact at this point. The difference is that Cousins is 6 years younger; he plays as well as Gortat despite being totally undisciplined; and he does so alongside crappy teammates while playing against much better competition.

I would say I'm not totally against trading for Cousins. My problem has always been the ridiculous trade packages that some people have proposed to get him. I saw someone on BF the other day propose Beal + Gortat + Porter + Oubre + 2 firsts for Cousins straight up. That's just completely insane.

That's up there with one currently on the front page of the draft board:

Drummond, Stanley Johnson, Jennings, 2016 1st top 3 protected

for

Demarcus Cousins

Stanley Johnson is going to be a big star, imo. Drummond isn't the super uber star that the metrics folks predicted he'd be after his rookie year, but he can still become what DeAndre Jordan's become.

[Ruzious]

And for those who go apoplectic when they see a Beal trade thought:

Bradley Beal wants a maximum contract extension, but the Washington Wizards reportedly won’t give him one. They plan to make him play out the 2015-16 season then hit restricted free agency, according to CSN Washington’s J. Michael Falgoust: “Bradley Beal has made it clear he thinks he’s a max player and that’s what he wants. I’ve talked to people on both sides all offseason about this. It seems to be Bradley Beal’s decision. The Wizards are willing to make him an offer, an extension, but they’re not going to offer him the maximum extension right now simply because they don’t have to.

A max contract next year is going to be a lot bigger than the contract John Wall signed. Do you want to risk paying that to Beal?

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Could this possibly bring Beal's price down to a more reasonable level?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/635978737910214656[/tweet]

If MKG signed a 4-year $52M deal, maybe Beal would agree to a deal starting at $16M with max raises (that's about 4-years, $71M).

Sorry, I hadn't seen when I posted this in the other teams thread, nate,

You posted almost exactly what I hope but hadn't posted, which is for Beal to agree to something like 4/$72M. That's very reasonable.

IMO Beal is not worth over 5M more than MKG. I think MKG is actually the better player overall. Regardless if I'm wrong or right, Beal getting 18M while MKG gets 13M should be as high as the Wizards offer IMO.


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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

And for those who go apoplectic when they see a Beal trade thought:

Bradley Beal wants a maximum contract extension, but the Washington Wizards reportedly won’t give him one. They plan to make him play out the 2015-16 season then hit restricted free agency, according to CSN Washington’s J. Michael Falgoust: “Bradley Beal has made it clear he thinks he’s a max player and that’s what he wants. I’ve talked to people on both sides all offseason about this. It seems to be Bradley Beal’s decision. The Wizards are willing to make him an offer, an extension, but they’re not going to offer him the maximum extension right now simply because they don’t have to.

A max contract next year is going to be a lot bigger than the contract John Wall signed. Do you want to risk paying that to Beal?

I would offer Beal, Nene, and two firsts for Cousins.


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[nate33]

Could this possibly bring Beal's price down to a more reasonable level?

[tweet]https://twitter.com/WojYahooNBA/status/635978737910214656[/tweet]

If MKG signed a 4-year $52M deal, maybe Beal would agree to a deal starting at $16M with max raises (that's about 4-years, $71M).

Sorry, I hadn't seen when I posted this in the other teams thread, nate,

You posted almost exactly what I hope but hadn't posted, which is for Beal to agree to something like 4/$72M. That's very reasonable.

IMO Beal is not worth over 5M more than MKG. I think MKG is actually the better player overall. Regardless if I'm wrong or right, Beal getting 18M while MKG gets 13M should be as high as the Wizards offer IMO.


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You actually posted first. I posted this without seeing you already posted it. Sorry.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Cousins' PPA last season: 170. Gortat's PPA last season: 170.

Which is why I would offer Beal, NENE, and two firsts for Cousins. I think the Wizards would have a team that could legitimately challenge the Cavaliers if they had Cousins/Gortat in the frontcourt. Why? Most of the bunnies that Cousins misses or gets blocked around the basket could be his own assists to Gortat or Wall. My theory is rebounds/possession would greatly increase and the Wizards would win more games as a result. Boogie's ability to get to the line would also come up huge in the playoffs.

I love what Gortat provides this team. I don't want to trade him for Cousins. (Besides, it makes a lot more sense to the the Kings to add a veteran PF like Nene. They have Koufos and Cauley-Stein and need a mentor/tough guy up front to show WCS the ropes).

As far as the PPA goes, Cousins has operated in a virtual talent vacuum for years. If he played with Wall his PPA would be significantly higher IMO. His ball handling, passing, ability to generate his own offense, and his ability to outplay head-to-head Cs like Dwight Howard are the difference between him and Marcin Gortat. (On top of that, Wall knows his game and will help his numbers a ton if they're ever teammates again!) Gortat makes far, far less turnovers and fouls; and he converts a higher percentage, but that IMO is somewhat skewed by supporting cast and easy looks in Marcin's favor.

What do you think Cousin's PPA would have been if he were the Wizard C instead of Gortat?

At the risk of being vilified on this board, what was Wall's PPA? If lower than Gortat's/Cousins' what should we infer?

[Ruzious]

Cousins' PPA last season: 170. Gortat's PPA last season: 170.

Which is why I would offer Beal, NENE, and two firsts for Cousins. I think the Wizards would have a team that could legitimately challenge the Cavaliers if they had Cousins/Gortat in the frontcourt. Why? Most of the bunnies that Cousins misses or gets blocked around the basket could be his own assists to Gortat or Wall. My theory is rebounds/possession would greatly increase and the Wizards would win more games as a result. Boogie's ability to get to the line would also come up huge in the playoffs.

I love what Gortat provides this team. I don't want to trade him for Cousins. (Besides, it makes a lot more sense to the the Kings to add a veteran PF like Nene. They have Koufos and Cauley-Stein and need a mentor/tough guy up front to show WCS the ropes).

As far as the PPA goes, Cousins has operated in a virtual talent vacuum for years. If he played with Wall his PPA would be significantly higher IMO. His ball handling, passing, ability to generate his own offense, and his ability to outplay head-to-head Cs like Dwight Howard are the difference between him and Marcin Gortat. (On top of that, Wall knows his game and will help his numbers a ton if they're ever teammates again!) Gortat makes far, far less turnovers and fouls; and he converts a higher percentage, but that IMO is somewhat skewed by supporting cast and easy looks in Marcin's favor.

What do you think Cousin's PPA would have been if he were the Wizard C instead of Gortat?

At the risk of being vilified on this board, what was Wall's PPA? If lower than Gortat's/Cousins' what should we infer?

Spacing is the one word answer to why Cousins/Gortat would not be synergistic. Having a stretch 4 changed Gortat from an ordinary player into a very good starting center. It meant there'd be only one interior defender and gave him space to cut to the basket. No smart defensive coach is going to have his bigs come out more than 15 feet to cover either Gortat or Cousins - so they can and will pack in the defense. That also makes if more difficult for John Wall to penetrate - which is key to the team's offense. Spacing and picknroll are the watchwords of today's NBA.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Cousins' PPA last season: 170. Gortat's PPA last season: 170.

Which is why I would offer Beal, NENE, and two firsts for Cousins. I think the Wizards would have a team that could legitimately challenge the Cavaliers if they had Cousins/Gortat in the frontcourt. Why? Most of the bunnies that Cousins misses or gets blocked around the basket could be his own assists to Gortat or Wall. My theory is rebounds/possession would greatly increase and the Wizards would win more games as a result. Boogie's ability to get to the line would also come up huge in the playoffs.

I love what Gortat provides this team. I don't want to trade him for Cousins. (Besides, it makes a lot more sense to the the Kings to add a veteran PF like Nene. They have Koufos and Cauley-Stein and need a mentor/tough guy up front to show WCS the ropes).

As far as the PPA goes, Cousins has operated in a virtual talent vacuum for years. If he played with Wall his PPA would be significantly higher IMO. His ball handling, passing, ability to generate his own offense, and his ability to outplay head-to-head Cs like Dwight Howard are the difference between him and Marcin Gortat. (On top of that, Wall knows his game and will help his numbers a ton if they're ever teammates again!) Gortat makes far, far less turnovers and fouls; and he converts a higher percentage, but that IMO is somewhat skewed by supporting cast and easy looks in Marcin's favor.

What do you think Cousin's PPA would have been if he were the Wizard C instead of Gortat?

At the risk of being vilified on this board, what was Wall's PPA? If lower than Gortat's/Cousins' what should we infer?

Wall rated a 151 last season, which was the best mark of his career.

I'm somewhat sympathetic to the supporting cast argument. This past season, Cousins' only teammates who rated above average were Rudy Gay and Darren Collison, and Collison played only 45 games. The year before that, Cousins had Isaiah Thomas and Gay (part season), and the Kings basically couldn't wait to get rid of Thomas.

As for guesstimating what Cousins' PPA would be if he played with Wall...dunno. One of the benefits of a ball-dominant PG is that their teammates typically turn the ball over less often when that PG is in the game. That would help his efficiency -- last season, among players with at least 1,000 total minutes, Cousins had 18.4 zero-point possessions per 100 team possessions (3rd highest in the league behind Westbrook and Kobe). Turnovers accounted for about a third of those zero-point possessions, so that would help some. Whether or not Wall would help with the shooting is a different issue. When I looked at "Wall Effect" I didn't find much "help" for big men.

To payitforward's point about Cousins' turnovers...what Cousins did this season is amazing (though not in a good way). He had more turnovers per 100 team possessions than anyone in the league, including guys who handle the ball on nearly all of their teams' possessions, including Westbrook, Lebron, Wade, Wall, etc. The closest centers to him were Dwight Howard and Seraphin, and they were a considerable distance behind.

The guy has a TON of talent. It'd be interesting to see if he's played the way he has because of "necessity" (meaning that his teammates were garbage and he and/or his coaches thought they were better served with Cousins taking jumpers and trying to create offense) or whether this has become "his game." The difficulty in trading for him (and presumably paying a steep price) is that he'd need to be receptive to coaching and teammates, and change his game, AND there have been issues related to those aspects while he's been in Sacramento. Maybe that was because of the quality of those teammates/coaches. But...maybe not.

[pcbothwel]

I dont have any interest in trading Gortat for Boogie this year (along with the other necessary parts to get him). I also have no interest in him next year if we do get Durant.

However, the combo of 4 likely events could all very well occur and if they do, I would look to make the trade:
1) Gortat has career year playing with more space in the middle
2) Boogie continues to have ups and downs, but clearly doesn't patch things up with the Kings
3) KD stays in OKC (or goes elsewhere)
4) Beal has pretty good, but not great year and still demand Max

If those four things happen (And they all very well could), then I look to make a trade of Gortat (peak value), Beal (SnT), and a pick or two for Boogie, Koufos, and McLemore.

We then can compete in 2016/17 with:
Wall
McLemore / Sato
Oubre / Sato
Porter
Boogie / Koufos

Going into summer 2017, we have the same team as 2016/17 (cap holds for Otto and McLemore) and max cap space for Blake Griffin, Parsons, Ibaka (my choice), Patrick Patterson, Milsap (PO), Hayward (PO)...

Hell of a Plan B to the KD plan A

[Sluggerface]

I'm not sure how much blame falls on bad teammates or coaching whenever Cousins launches a 15 foot jumper on the block with a 6'10+ defender contesting him, while he himself is a post scorer who gets to the line at an almost insane rate for a big that is actually good at shooting free throws.

[Illmatic12]

Also, Cousins turnovers are almost ALL on him imo. If you watch him play you see why he turns it over so much.

He tries too hard to be prime CWebb and 'thread the needle' on unnecessarily fancy passes. Someone in PC posted that he had 176 turnovers strictly due to bad passes. Keep in mind, that is in 59 games .. just bad passes alone, not including his turnovers from offensive fouls. The worst thing about it, that's something he could easily cut out of his game and his effectivness would go way up. Honestly, 5-6 season into the league you start to question how much self-awareness he has about his game, and the degree to which he works on his flaws.

There's no way I'd trade a kings ransom and gut our for Cousins right now, it's just too big of a risk. However, my not too bold prediction is that he will clash with Karl (you can see that coming from a mile away - GK hates babied star players, not to mention his offensive philosophy is guard oriented and doesn't play into DMCs favor), and will lower his trade value in the process. At that point, *reasonable* trade options could be explored..

[fishercob]

Porting this mini-discussion over from the Other Teams Moves discussion...

As you point out, MKG and Beal have played virtually the same number of games over their first three years.

They are the same age.

Last season they had same number of win shares , but MKG significantly outproduced Beal in WS/48, as his defensive impact has far exceeded Beal's offensive impact. In fact, they had virtually the same TS%, and MKG beat Beal in ORtg 106 to 102! For their careers, MKG also has a slightly better ORtg and WS/48.

Nivek/TSW has pointed to plenty of data showing that glamour stats like PPG (and even FGA) tends to correlate more to salary more than advanced metrics. It's a clear market inefficiency, so I think it's safe to say Beal is going to get more than MKG. But a more shrewd front office would be using this contract as a negotiate a favorable deal. Hopefully the conversation goes like this:

"We think this is the market for you now if you want the long term security. But if you wait, go the Kawhi route and let us a make another big move and we will reward you for it."

You could make similar arguments for a guy like Klay Thompson, if ORtg and ws/48 stats are the only context then MKG looks better than Thompson through his age 22 or 23 seasons. The market for Beal is set because he is a (historically) prolific 3pt shooter for his age, and has the potential to break out as an major weapon in the pace-and-space era. It's a lot easier to convince GMs that Beal is on the verge of being a Klay Thompson-type, than to convince them that MKG is on the verge of going full Jimmy Butler/Kawhi.

I would extend Beal at ~4/70 right now and get it over with, same as Klay and Middleton and it's less than what the franchise player Wall is making (which is sensible on all accounts) + retains max capspace for next summer. But my suspicion is the team offered him that number and his agent rejected.

I agree with illmatic12. WS/48 isn't a perfect stat - particularly with guards and wings. The stat is too dependent on rebounding and doesn't capture the benefits that Beal's superior spacing provides for his team. The fact is, Beal helps his team's offense on every single possession, even when he doesn't touch the ball. MKG can be virtually ignored unless he's cutting to the hoop. There's a reason why Charlotte ranked 28th in offensive rating. You just can't function offensively in this league with a shooting guard who can't shoot.

MKG's offensive inadequacies would be exposed even further if he played many playoff games. His decent ORtg is mostly due to his low usage and him getting lots of garbage points in transition or against inattentive regular-season defenses. Beal, on the other hand, gets better in the playoffs despite the increased usage rate under focused defensive attention.

One of my principles when evaluating a player is to first make sure he can do the things he is supposed to do. PG's absolutely MUST be able to break down defenses and pass well. Shooting guards MUST be deadly shooters from the perimeter. SF's MUST be good perimeter defenders and adequate 3-point shooters. PF's must be respectable midrange shooters and good rebounders. Centers have to protect the rim. Basically, if your guy can't fulfill the primary role of his position, then you need to find a really good player at another position who can do his job AND cover for his teammate. And those guys cost a ton of money. MKG can't shoot well enough to play either SG or SF. In order to play him, you need a big who can reliably hit 3's while still handling his defensive responsibilities.

Overall, I don't disagree with either of you. And while I also agree that WS/48 is imperfect, I think it's a pretty illuminative stat and that the ORtg piece provides some context as well (understanding the usage discrepancies). My point is not that MKG is better or that I'd prefer to have him over Beal. As nate alludes to, MKG's limitations are highly physical; there's only so much you can do with that.

But much of the reason that these metrics show him on Beal's level or better is that Beal hasn't developed the mental game to exploit his skills. We're going over old territory here, but Beal (and WIttman's) love affair with long two's crushes his production. The belief -- and the hope -- is that with some stylistic changes to the offense, Bradley is going to see more 3's, more shots at the rim, and that his spacing will have more of the hidden impact on others that nate mentions. Because for all the accounting for Beal that defenses have had to do, the Wizards have been a below average offense every year he's been in the league.

I don't what's going to happen to the defense. But I just can't imagine the Wizards offense not improving this year if they play smaller (as they clearly plan to) and Wall and Gortat are healthy. And if the Wizards play offense the way so many of us have wanted them to for some time, Beal will be worth a lot of money.

As to his contract, I'd give him two options. (1) If he wants long term security now (he's had injuries), sign a deal like MKG's at or near the cap hold -- can't imagine he'd be at all interested. (2) Go the Kawhi strategy and help us recruit Durant -- be in on the pitches, tell everyone you're staying here, etc. If we get KD, we'll bonus you via a max deal (because while it's an overpay for BB, the combined money for BB and KD is not at all) . If we miss, we'll still reward you with a great deal, but we may let the market set what that is. He will be a RFA after all.

[Rafael122]

That J. Michael report makes it sound like the agent and Wiz management want to get a deal done, but Beal's holding out.

[nate33]

That J. Michael report makes it sound like the agent and Wiz management want to get a deal done, but Beal's holding out.

Yeah, that's what it sounds like.

It's not too surprising though. Beal think he can get a full max offer starting at $22M. Presumably, the Wizards are only willing to offer him something in the $14-16M a year range to make sure they reserve enough cap room for Durant. That's probably too big of a gap for Beal. I can't really blame him. With the amount of money that's going to be available, someone is surely going to offer him the max. The only risk he is taking by holding out is the injury risk.

[nuposse04]

Just so I know I'm not in the wrong... BF has an article saying the wiz SHOULD wait until next season because signing Beal to a max now would hinder their ability to sign KD to a max.... even if we max'd Beal now...wouldn't we still have space to offer Durant a max?

We have every incentive in the world to sign him under this cap as oppose to the other one...at least that is what common sense tells me...

[TheSecretWeapon]

Just so I know I'm not in the wrong... BF has an article saying the wiz SHOULD wait until next season because signing Beal to a max now would hinder their ability to sign KD to a max.... even if we max'd Beal now...wouldn't we still have space to offer Durant a max?

Nope. If the Wiz give Beal a maximum extension, it starts NEXT offseason, not this year. So, it would be a max salary based on the new cap, which would be greater than his cap hold by about several million. The Wiz could then re-sign Beal to a contract for something more than the cap hold (up to the max), AFTER signing Durant to a max deal.

We have every incentive in the world to sign him under this cap as oppose to the other one...at least that is what common sense tells me...

In terms of getting a better dollar value on Beal, yes. In terms of being able to also sign a max-salary free agent, maybe not.

[dobrojim]

sometimes a bird in the bush is worth more than one in the hand.