Is Daniels worth a big extension/2016 Free Agents

HKPackFan · Post #1 » by **HKPackFan** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 5:13 am

Article in Jsonline today saying packers and Daniels are very far apart.

Is he worth 10 million a year?

He would be around the 5th highest paid player on the team. I don't want another Cullen Jenkins situation. We finally have a good inside rusher and we lose him and leaves a crappy hole which takes forever to replace.

Not only that but we have a bunch of high round misses on the Dline, I would hate to lose one that we finally hit on.

I hate these situations. It's easy to say pay him the money but you can't pay everyone. I want to keep him but if we wait there is a risk he blows up this year and becomes the biggest thing in FA then he's going to be way over $10 million. I don't see him becoming raji and **** the bed in a contract year.

I was ok with Tramon and davon leaving. Both were waaaay overpaid. But Daniels is a tough one. The Dline is tough to figure out. Jones, guion, raji....all guys that need to prove something. They could be ok to good. Remove Daniels I think they become kinda crappy. 2010 raji and current Daniels are the only 2 I would pay for. Guion is fine if he stays on the cheap.

It's hard to predict what's going to happen with Daniels.

RRyder823 · Post #2 » by **RRyder823** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 6:13 am

Daniels is a damn good player and we can hardly afford to lose him but 10 mill per is a little too much especially with what we just gave to Cobb and Bulaga.

It all depends on the guaranteed dollars but I have the feeling that TT is looking for a 3 year 24 million dollar deal with 10 guaranteed while Daniels is looking for 4 years 40 million with 15-20 guaranteed with the last number being closer to 20.

That would be pretty far apart and that bridge most likely won't be crossed till after the season plays out. Would hate to lose him but TT generally sticks to his guns in these situations so we'll just have to see how this plays out

SpursNBucks · Post #3 » by **SpursNBucks** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 11:17 am

Daniels is the Packers best D-linemen - that is not saying a lot though since that is a weak area of the team. If the Packers pay him $10 million/ year he would be the 9th highest paid DE in the NFL. He is NOT the 9th best DE, and is not worth that kind of raise.

As a pass rusher -he has had 6.5 and 5.5 (ties him for 39th in the NFL for D-Linemen) the past two years. Against the run 23 and 41 tackles over the last two years(tied for 35th). No forced fumbles, INTs, and because he is 6'0" he has no passes defended (batted down).

In the Packers 3-4 defensive scheme the DE first goal is to hold up the run. Daniels has a very solid all around game. The only real complaint you can make against him as a player is his lack of height- he's never going to bat down a lot of footballs or cause a big problem for QBs in that respect.

I like Daniels - I do not quite see him as a $10mil/year player, but pretty close.I think he will and should fall in the $7-8.5 mil/ range.

comparables:
Sheldon Richardson ($2.74) 8/67 ........$3.2 in 2016
Cameron Heyward ($6.4) 7.5/53.........averages about $10mil till 2020
Muhamed Wilkerson ($7) 6/56............*Contract up like Daniels at end of season
Fletcher Cox ($6.4) 4/61.................. $7.8 next year

Post #4 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:56 pm

Post #5 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:57 pm

I've edited the title so we can talk about all upcoming free agents as outlined above.

crkone · Post #6 » by **crkone** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:04 pm

Out of everyone on the list, I'd keep Crosby, Goode, and one of Neal/Perry. Daniels sounds like he'll be pretty expensive. I'm hoping Tolzien gets a starting gig and Hundley is ready by next year. We'll see how Raji does this year.

Post #7 » by **ReasonablySober** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:08 pm

Daniels is going to be expensive because he's really good. Him, Hayward and Crosby are the only three on that list I'd consider must-signs.

Post #8 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:25 pm

With Hayward I think it depends on how our 2 rookies do this year. I've always liked him though, I think he's going to have a good season. If he does he won't be cheap. But you can never have too many good DB's.

RRyder823 · Post #9 » by **RRyder823** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:19 pm

ReasonablySober wrote:Daniels is going to be expensive because he's really good. Him, Hayward and Crosby are the only three on that list I'd consider must-signs.

Daniels and Crosby are the "must signs" as of right now. Make no mistake one of the reasons one of the reasons the Packers went CB/CB in the first two rounds was to not only protect against Hayward getting injured this year bit also in case he stays healthy and gets a crazy offer in the offseason.

I'd love to have him back and think he'll have a big year but the price has gotta be right

LUKE23 · Post #10 » by **LUKE23** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:25 pm

The bottom line is this: we really need to start drafting better in the front 7, especially DL.

Post #11 » by **humanrefutation** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:37 pm

Daniels is our most important FA heading into 2016. I'd make re-signing him our #1 priority.

Getting Casey back would be a very close #2, but if it's between him and Daniels, Daniels gets that money.

Locking up Crosby would be nice as well, but the gap between the best kickers and replacement-level kickers isn't as great as it used to be. I wouldn't overpay him to bring him back.

crkone · Post #12 » by **crkone** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:40 pm

humanrefutation wrote:Daniels is our most important FA heading into 2016. I'd make re-signing him our #1 priority.

Getting Casey back would be a very close #2, but if it's between him and Daniels, Daniels gets that money.

Locking up Crosby would be nice as well, but the gap between the best kickers and replacement-level kickers isn't as great as it used to be. I wouldn't overpay him to bring him back.

If there is a penalty on an extra point you better make sure your kicker can hit that.

Kerb Hohl · Post #13 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:41 pm

crkone wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:Daniels is our most important FA heading into 2016. I'd make re-signing him our #1 priority.

Getting Casey back would be a very close #2, but if it's between him and Daniels, Daniels gets that money.

Locking up Crosby would be nice as well, but the gap between the best kickers and replacement-level kickers isn't as great as it used to be. I wouldn't overpay him to bring him back.

If there is a penalty on an extra point you better make sure your kicker can hit that.

Or you could just go for 2 always with a high-powered offense.

crkone · Post #14 » by **crkone** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 2:48 pm

Kerb Hohl wrote:
crkone wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:Daniels is our most important FA heading into 2016. I'd make re-signing him our #1 priority.

Getting Casey back would be a very close #2, but if it's between him and Daniels, Daniels gets that money.

Locking up Crosby would be nice as well, but the gap between the best kickers and replacement-level kickers isn't as great as it used to be. I wouldn't overpay him to bring him back.

If there is a penalty on an extra point you better make sure your kicker can hit that.

Or you could just go for 2 always with a high-powered offense.

A high-powered offense that was 11th in the NFL in the redzone last season, and 26th the previous.

Kerb Hohl · Post #15 » by **Kerb Hohl** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:07 pm

crkone wrote:
Kerb Hohl wrote:
crkone wrote:
If there is a penalty on an extra point you better make sure your kicker can hit that.

Or you could just go for 2 always with a high-powered offense.

A high-powered offense that was 11th in the NFL in the redzone last season, and 26th the previous.

Rodgers was out in the previous season to bump those down a bit. They do have a glaring weakness (even worse with Jordy out) with no big TE/WR...that said, they were #1 in 2012, #3 in 2011, #4 in 2010 in the redzone.

So it's:
11th
26th (Rodgers out for half of the season)
1st
3rd
4th

That's a pretty strong record. That said, they do sometimes struggle inside the 5. I still think they can do better than 50%, but then you have to weigh the injury concern.

The percentages are going to be really close. I'm going to guess the longer extra points are going to be 95% successful and right now, 2-point conversions are about 47%.

Post #16 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:10 pm

Crosby has rebounded nicely from his slump. He'll be re-signed.

Post #17 » by **humanrefutation** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:19 pm

crkone wrote:
humanrefutation wrote:Daniels is our most important FA heading into 2016. I'd make re-signing him our #1 priority.

Getting Casey back would be a very close #2, but if it's between him and Daniels, Daniels gets that money.

Locking up Crosby would be nice as well, but the gap between the best kickers and replacement-level kickers isn't as great as it used to be. I wouldn't overpay him to bring him back.

If there is a penalty on an extra point you better make sure your kicker can hit that.

In 2014, Mason Crosby was 71% on FGs between 40-49 yards (which is about the range of an extra point backed up by a 5, 10, or 15 yard penalty).

That ranked him 22nd in the NFL.

Post #18 » by **humanrefutation** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:31 pm

MickeyDavis wrote:Crosby has rebounded nicely from his slump. He'll be re-signed.

You know, I thought the same thing, but looking at his stats, they weren't all that impressive. He was awful in 2012, very good in 2013, but he slumped to a solidly replacement-level kicker in 2014. I know the weather has to get factored in to a certain degree, but he wasn't great.

Post #19 » by **MickeyDavis** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:37 pm

I guess I didn't realize he was that bad mid range last year.

crkone · Post #20 » by **crkone** » Thu Aug 27, 2015 3:50 pm

humanrefutation wrote:
MickeyDavis wrote:Crosby has rebounded nicely from his slump. He'll be re-signed.

You know, I thought the same thing, but looking at his stats, they weren't all that impressive. He was awful in 2012, very good in 2013, but he slumped to a solidly replacement-level kicker in 2014. I know the weather has to get factored in to a certain degree, but he wasn't great.

Replacement level league wide isn't replacement level for outdoor cold weather teams though. There is nobody out there in free agency who they'll be able to lure away from other teams either. They'll have to draft and develop a kicker to save $1-2 mil.