Bradley Beal - Part II

[tontoz]

Beal broke his wrist last summer.. like many younger players, he's been limited by bad luck with injuries. There's no way for us to know how much that's impacted his development.

He has played 33 minutes per game for 192 regular season games. The only competition he has had for minutes was from Jordan Crawford who is no longer in the NBA. I think most young players wish they had it that easy.

His injury didn't seem to affect his 3 point shooting so I doubt it affected his foul shooting or midrange shot. His injuries may be partly why he is reluctant to take it to the basket in the regular season though.

[DCZards]

No doubt Beal needs to take more 3 pters. He passed up far too many 3 pt. opportunities last season. The kid is too unselfish and he said so himself in an interview toward the end of last season.

The good news is that BB is already very good at the hard part--making a high % of 3 pt. shots. Now he has to work on taking more of them. Beal only took 4 threes per game last season. Guys like Curry, Korver, Reddick and Thompson take 6-8 threes a game.

[TheSecretWeapon]

C'mon man, you normally make great posts but this is not one. You wrote that whole post based on one line I wrote, and misinterpreted why I posted that link.

It's extremely rare for young players to adjust as quickly to the NBA 3pt line as Beal has. He's displayed a prodigious talent for 3pt shooting, one that could become a huge weapon for this team as he develops. With the importance of 3pt shooting in today's game, that is one point I made in Beal's favor. You ignored all the other ones to be pedantic.

Is it extremely rare for young players to adjust quickly to the NBA 3pt line? I don't know. Players as young as Beal are historically rare, though more common in recent years. I haven't looked at it in any systematic way. I'm dubious about the claim, but you could be right. If I get time, I'll try and take a look.

Agreed that 3pt shooting is important, and Beal is a good 3pt shooter. It's one of the things that gives me hope that he'll improve to be the next Ray Allen -- or even better. He still needs to perform better in a lot of areas, though.

Yes, it's rare. Beal was drafted at age 19, we've seen 19yos have been coming into the league regularly since the late 1990s/early 2000s. If Beal hadn't missed as many games, he would have the most 3PM all-time for anyone his age, by a country mile, (he already is #1 by 30+ 3P over Irving, but I mean it wouldn't even be close).

Here's another way of looking at it, so it doesn't look like too much of an "arbitrary cutoff":

http://bkref.com/tiny/OafJS

If you take every season of a <22yo shooting 38% 3pt or more, and sort by attempts, all three of Beal's career seasons are in the top 20. He's also the only one in the top 20 at 19yo.

Not to sound like Walt "Clyde' Frazier here with the words.. but the fact is this kid we drafted is historically prolific and prodigious at shooting threes. Prolific in abundance and accuracy, prodigious in the age at which he's accomplishing this. I'm not saying he will ever shoot like Steph Curry at his peak (that's not what this means), but young players usually don't come into the league and immediately become automatic weapons from behind the arc to this degree. It wouldn't surprise me if Beal ends up fairly high on the all-time 3pt leaderboard by the end of his career. In today's NBA, with the value of spacing, players with that kind of talent for 3pt shooting are extremely valuable.

Imho.. even if it takes Beal a while to put his total game together (in terms of consistent midrange shooting etc), even if we have to deal with a few years of him shooting an iffy fg%.. if an age 24, 25, 26yo Beal is anything like a 20ppg+ scorer at his peak who is shooting a blistering percentage from three on high volume, there is no way I want him playing for a team other than the Wizards. Especially with Wall not being an outside shooter.

Don't have time to get into this today, but in reading your posts it seems like you have a conclusion -- Beal's going to be terrific -- and you're looking for something to support it. I followed that link, but I don't think it leads to conclusion you've arrived at. You may be correct, but the evidence you've offered so far doesn't convince me. I'll try and loop back to this on Monday.

[Illmatic12]

Beal broke his wrist last summer.. like many younger players, he's been limited by bad luck with injuries. There's no way for us to know how much that's impacted his development.

He has played 33 minutes per game for 192 regular season games. The only competition he has had for minutes was from Jordan Crawford who is no longer in the NBA. I think most young players wish they had it that easy.

His injury didn't seem to affect his 3 point shooting so I doubt it affected his foul shooting or midrange shot. His injuries may be partly why he is reluctant to take it to the basket in the regular season though.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/gamelog/_/id/6580/bradley-beal

This is my take. Looking at the picture painted by Beal's season, this is just my opinion.. but imo, it paints the picture of a guy who had his offseason thrown off by a fluke injury, started to tune it up early on during the season, but couldn't really take it to the next level because he was limited physically from his legs. In the playoffs, when the games really matter and the effort level is higher, he rose to the occasion.


After coming back from the broken wrist, his December shooting 47% from deep, was a pretty solid month for any SG. In January, he's playing heavier minutes but his scoring goes down because he completely stops drawing FTs (though still shooting 43% from deep). Shortly after, we find out that he's been dealing with the stress injury in his shin. He comes back in March and looks awful and passive (possibly because he's coming off a lower body injury?). Then in April, we play some weak teams and Beal is able to tune them up for 20ppg heading into the playoffs.

Come playoff time, he willingly welcomes a greater offensive load and ballhandling role. He was very streaky doing this, not even on a game-to-game basis but he went through awful quarters (missing a bunch of jumpers and easy bunnies at the rim) then good quarters (which often were in the 4th quarter - not to be overlooked). But in 4-5 the few games where he put it all together, opponents were defending him like a #1 option, and he was using that attention to create for his teammates. If Beal is showing he can impact the game on that level, then the Wizards needs to cultivate that element of his game.



I think yourself and others may be assigning too much weight to his injured stretches. The team was falling apart, and Brad was just coasting through games chucking Wittman's long twos, so it certainly felt like he was a main contributor to us hitting rock bottom. But it's unwritten code for guys not to talk about their injuries, he may not have necessarily been 100% during that time. I would at least give him a chance to see what he can do next year, with a full offseason + healthy season. I think Beal is a pretty promising player, he plays hard on both ends of the court and has more offensive upside left. If he stays healthy, my guess is this season he averages around 18-19ppg/4apg/4rpg on 43%fg/40% 3pt. That's not unrealistic imo and a good season for an SG his age.

[Illmatic12]

Is it extremely rare for young players to adjust quickly to the NBA 3pt line? I don't know. Players as young as Beal are historically rare, though more common in recent years. I haven't looked at it in any systematic way. I'm dubious about the claim, but you could be right. If I get time, I'll try and take a look.

Agreed that 3pt shooting is important, and Beal is a good 3pt shooter. It's one of the things that gives me hope that he'll improve to be the next Ray Allen -- or even better. He still needs to perform better in a lot of areas, though.

Yes, it's rare. Beal was drafted at age 19, we've seen 19yos have been coming into the league regularly since the late 1990s/early 2000s. If Beal hadn't missed as many games, he would have the most 3PM all-time for anyone his age, by a country mile, (he already is #1 by 30+ 3P over Irving, but I mean it wouldn't even be close).

Here's another way of looking at it, so it doesn't look like too much of an "arbitrary cutoff":

http://bkref.com/tiny/OafJS

If you take every season of a <22yo shooting 38% 3pt or more, and sort by attempts, all three of Beal's career seasons are in the top 20. He's also the only one in the top 20 at 19yo.

Not to sound like Walt "Clyde' Frazier here with the words.. but the fact is this kid we drafted is historically prolific and prodigious at shooting threes. Prolific in abundance and accuracy, prodigious in the age at which he's accomplishing this. I'm not saying he will ever shoot like Steph Curry at his peak (that's not what this means), but young players usually don't come into the league and immediately become automatic weapons from behind the arc to this degree. It wouldn't surprise me if Beal ends up fairly high on the all-time 3pt leaderboard by the end of his career. In today's NBA, with the value of spacing, players with that kind of talent for 3pt shooting are extremely valuable.

Imho.. even if it takes Beal a while to put his total game together (in terms of consistent midrange shooting etc), even if we have to deal with a few years of him shooting an iffy fg%.. if an age 24, 25, 26yo Beal is anything like a 20ppg+ scorer at his peak who is shooting a blistering percentage from three on high volume, there is no way I want him playing for a team other than the Wizards. Especially with Wall not being an outside shooter.

Don't have time to get into this today, but in reading your posts it seems like you have a conclusion -- Beal's going to be terrific -- and you're looking for something to support it. I followed that link, but I don't think it leads to conclusion you've arrived at. You may be correct, but the evidence you've offered so far doesn't convince me. I'll try and loop back to this on Monday.

I didn't say anything about him being terrific. I think, at worst, he'll be a high level 3pt shooter + moderately better at the things he's decent at now. Whether he's 'terrific' or not depends on the development of his ballhandling and drawing fouls, which are a small sample size at this point. It's still up in the air completely where he ends up in those areas. My point was that we can't deny his 3pt shooting potential being a legitimate checkmark in his favor.

[tontoz]

I think yourself and others may be assigning too much weight to his injured stretches.

I am looking at his whole career. Injuries are common in the NBA. They aren't unique to Beal.

For his career he is a terrible (and frequent) shooter from midrange and has shown no sign of improvement. He is also sub-80% from the foul line, again showing no sign of improvement. His TS of 52% ranked 42nd among 2s this past season.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/sg/sort/trueShootingPct

In the playoffs he actually shot the ball worse, he just shot more often and got to the line more.

Almost any player looks good if you focus only on their good games.

[Sluggerface]

Beal's scoring efficiency has been consistently weak since he has been here. Taking more shots generally doesn't lead to higher efficiency. Making more shots leads to higher efficiency.

In the playoffs he tends to attack the rim more but let's not pretend like he was shooting better. His EFG in the regular season was 48.9% compared to 46.3% in the playoffs. Those are not the type of numbers that deserve a max contract.

He attacked the rim more in the playoffs last year and that obviously didn't carry over into the regular season. Maybe playing for a contract will spur him to attack the rim more but ultimately he needs to make more shots regardless of how many he takes. He puts up too many bricks on routine jumpers

Agreed about the scoring effeciency, but Beal was still a vastly more effective player in the playoffs. His scoring effeciency didn't improve, but he experienced a massive spike in his assist percentage while still maintaining a relatively low turnover rate. He was far more effective as a defender as well. Those two improvements were enough to almost double his win share output and quadruple his BPM.

Playoff Beal is worth a max. Is he comparable to someone like Harden? No. Harden is a superstar, and honestly getting underpaid with a max contract. He's comparable though to lower tier max players like Wall, Irving, and Lillard. That's just how the market is.

The problem is that his playoff performance is firmly in Small Sample Size Theater territory. For his career he has played 21 playoff games and 192 regular season games. Until he proves otherwise I will believe his regular season performance is far more indicative of the type of player he really is.

The sample size is small, but you can't dismiss it. It's split into two different time frames. You aren't dealing with one sample, it's two, and you can't even blame it on the defensive aptitude of the other teams. Washington ran up against 3 teams that were 1st, 2nd, and 7th in defensive efficiency, so the quality of the sample itself is high.

There's no guarantee Beal turns into a 4+ BPM player next season or the the season after that. He obviously still has issues with his game, but dismissing what he's done in the playoffs is just stupid. If Beal didn't play like that, this wouldn't even be a discussion and he wouldn't even be in the conversation for a max. It's far better to at least have a chance of getting a max player than not even having that option to begin with.

[Ruzious]

No doubt Beal needs to take more 3 pters. He passed up far too many 3 pt. opportunities last season. The kid is too unselfish and he said so himself in an interview toward the end of last season.

The good news is that BB is already very good at the hard part--making a high % of 3 pt. shots. Now he has to work on taking more of them. Beal only took 4 threes per game last season. Guys like Curry, Korver, Reddick and Thompson take 6-8 threes a game.

I think being unselfish has zero to do with Beal's problems. His shot selection needs work - he takes too many long 2's and doesn't focus on getting his feet set when he shoots them resulting in a poor shooting percentage on the long 2's, and he needs to speed up his release a little on his 3's - which will allow him to take more clean 3's. Often he'll fake the 3 and then take a couple of steps in to take a long 2 - and usually miss. If he speeds up his release, he doesn't need to fake the 3.

[DCZards]

No doubt Beal needs to take more 3 pters. He passed up far too many 3 pt. opportunities last season. The kid is too unselfish and he said so himself in an interview toward the end of last season.

The good news is that BB is already very good at the hard part--making a high % of 3 pt. shots. Now he has to work on taking more of them. Beal only took 4 threes per game last season. Guys like Curry, Korver, Reddick and Thompson take 6-8 threes a game.

I think being unselfish has zero to do with Beal's problems. His shot selection needs work - he takes too many long 2's and doesn't focus on getting his feet set when he shoots them resulting in a poor shooting percentage on the long 2's, and he needs to speed up his release a little on his 3's - which will allow him to take more clean 3's. Often he'll fake the 3 and then take a couple of steps in to take a long 2 - and usually miss. If he speeds up his release, he doesn't need to fake the 3.

All valid points, Ruz...although I still believe being unselfish is a factor as well.

[tontoz]

The sample size is small, but you can't dismiss it. It's split into two different time frames. You aren't dealing with one sample, it's two, and you can't even blame it on the defensive aptitude of the other teams. Washington ran up against 3 teams that were 1st, 2nd, and 7th in defensive efficiency, so the quality of the sample itself is high.

There's no guarantee Beal turns into a 4+ BPM player next season or the the season after that. He obviously still has issues with his game, but dismissing what he's done in the playoffs is just stupid. If Beal didn't play like that, this wouldn't even be a discussion and he wouldn't even be in the conversation for a max. It's far better to at least have a chance of getting a max player than not even having that option to begin with.

I didnt dismiss it i just put it in perspective. He obviously plays more aggressively in the playoffs, attacking the rim more. He did the same thing in last years playoffs and there was absolutely no follow through to the regular season. Maybe this year will be different because he is playing for a contract. But this is not a guy who lays it on the line every night. I have 192 games worth of evidence on that front.

He shoots like crap off the dribble and that is a pretty important skill for a shooting guard. He is one of the worst guards in the league running the pick and roll. He shoots the 3 well but not that often. If i had to choose right now whether to pay him the max or let him walk i let him walk without a second thought.

[tontoz]

No doubt Beal needs to take more 3 pters. He passed up far too many 3 pt. opportunities last season. The kid is too unselfish and he said so himself in an interview toward the end of last season.

The good news is that BB is already very good at the hard part--making a high % of 3 pt. shots. Now he has to work on taking more of them. Beal only took 4 threes per game last season. Guys like Curry, Korver, Reddick and Thompson take 6-8 threes a game.

I think being unselfish has zero to do with Beal's problems. His shot selection needs work - he takes too many long 2's and doesn't focus on getting his feet set when he shoots them resulting in a poor shooting percentage on the long 2's, and he needs to speed up his release a little on his 3's - which will allow him to take more clean 3's. Often he'll fake the 3 and then take a couple of steps in to take a long 2 - and usually miss. If he speeds up his release, he doesn't need to fake the 3.

Watching Pierce last year one thing that always stood out to me is that he would pretty much ignore the defense when he was attempting a 3. There were so many shots that nearly got blocked but he just dgaf. He refused to get run off the line.

[payitforward]

A big part of BB's problem is that he has a tendency to be too unselfish on the offensive end. I think that will change this year.

Last year, around midseason, I said that Beal should be taking 16-18 shots per game rather than 10-12. And some here thought I was crazy for suggesting that Beal should get that many shots. Well, Beal is at his best when he's being aggressive and looking for his shot. We saw that during the playoffs when he averaged 20 shots per game. He attacked the basket, got to the line more often, rebounded better and defended his butt off.

I believe the playoff Beal is the Real Beal, and I'm convinced that's the guy we'll see next season. He just needs to stay healthy.

Yes, I'm still totally in the tank for Double B.

Zards -- Brad shoots more than you seem to think. Last season, 55 SGs played 25+ minutes a game, Beal was #14 in shot attempts. He averaged 14.4 shots a game (not 10-12). Had he taken 50% more shots, as you seem to call for, he would have led the league -- 2 shots per game ahead of Kobe. The numerical delta you suggest -- 6 -- would have tied him w/ Kobe for the lead.

Unfortunately, Beal was # 44 of 55 in 2pt. % (at 43.3%). That's miserable. But he was #22 of 55 in 2-pt attempts. I don't think we want him taking more of those, do we? I mean, keeping in mind that every shot Brad takes is a shot someone else doesn't take.

On the other hand, among the same 55 guys he was #9 in 3-point %, but he was #30 in attempts! That makes little sense.

In other words, Beal does need to add high % shot attempts. In his case, that means more 3 point shots. And, because he doesn't get to the line a lot either, he does need to attack the basket more as well.

But he sure doesn't need to take any more 2 point jumpers.

[DCZards]

Zards -- Brad shoots more than you seem to think. Last season, 55 SGs played 25+ minutes a game, Beal was #14 in shot attempts. He averaged 14.4 shots a game (not 10-12). Had he taken 50% more shots, as you seem to call for, he would have led the league -- 2 shots per game ahead of Kobe. The numerical delta you suggest -- 6 -- would have tied him w/ Kobe for the lead.

Unfortunately, Beal was # 44 of 55 in 2pt. % (at 43.3%). That's miserable. But he was #22 of 55 in 2-pt attempts. I don't think we want him taking more of those, do we? I mean, keeping in mind that every shot Brad takes is a shot someone else doesn't take.

On the other hand, among the same 55 guys he was #9 in 3-point %, but he was #30 in attempts! That makes little sense.

In other words, Beal does need to add high % shot attempts. In his case, that means more 3 point shots. And, because he doesn't get to the line a lot either, he does need to attack the basket more as well.

But he sure doesn't need to take any more 2 point jumpers.

PIF, the stats I have, including those from ESPN, have Beal taking 13.5 shots per game (about the same # as Markieff Morris)...not 14.4. I'd like to see BB closer to 17 shots per game...similar to shooting guards like Klay Thompson, Monte Ellis and DeRozan.

And, yes, most of those additional shots should definitely be 3 pointers.

[Higga]

He needs to improve his FT% as well. With his form, he should be shooting 85+%, not shooting in the 70s. That alone would bump his PPG average quite a bit.

[nate33]

He needs to improve his FT% as well. With his form, he should be shooting 85+%, not shooting in the 70s. That alone would bump his PPG average quite a bit.

I agree that his free throw shooting isn't particularly stellar for a guy who is supposed to be an elite shooter, but we shouldn't overstate the issue. If he shot 85% instead of the 78% he shot last year he would have made a grand total of 11 more free throws on the season. That would have boosted his scoring average from 15.3 to 15.5.

[Dat2U]

If i had to choose right now whether to pay him the max or let him walk i let him walk without a second thought.

Yeah but that's not the choice.

He's got a year to prove himself. So your answer and your complete distaste for Beal's game is pretty irrelevant at this point.

[DCZards]

If i had to choose right now whether to pay him the max or let him walk i let him walk without a second thought.

Yeah but that's not the choice.

He's got a year to prove himself. So your answer and your complete distaste for Beal's game is pretty irrelevant at this point.

Yeah, tontoz. While you make some valid points about Beal's shortcomings and usually back them up with stats, your hate for Beal does often seem to be over the top. What's up with that?

[tontoz]

If i had to choose right now whether to pay him the max or let him walk i let him walk without a second thought.

Yeah but that's not the choice.

He's got a year to prove himself. So your answer and your complete distaste for Beal's game is pretty irrelevant at this point.

I didn't say it was the choice, just pointing out that letting him walk might not be such a bad option next year.

It isn't like i hate Beals game. He obviously shoots the 3 well and is a willing defender. He can drive effectively when he actually puts his mind to it.

But that just isn't enough to deserve the big money that he obviously wants. I keep seeing people assuming that he will suddenly break out when there is little evidence of an upward trend. He isn't being held back like Klay was, reduced to being just a spot up shooter in Jackson's offense. He has had plenty of chances to show what he can do off the dribble and has been pretty disappointing.

I also get the impression that he coasts during the regular season more than other top players. His unwillingness to drive and his eagerness to leak out early on D to cherry pick are not the things i am looking for in a max player.

[tontoz]

If i had to choose right now whether to pay him the max or let him walk i let him walk without a second thought.

Yeah but that's not the choice.

He's got a year to prove himself. So your answer and your complete distaste for Beal's game is pretty irrelevant at this point.

Yeah, tontoz. While you make some valid points about Beal's shortcomings and usually back them up with stats, your hate for Beal does often seem to be over the top. What's up with that?

You have a bad memory. In his rookie year when people were trashing him for his shooting woes i was saying that it is too early to worry about it. Sure enough he started lighting it up from 3 literally just days later.

Criticizing his game and hating aren't the same thing. Usually people fall back on the "you're a hater" line of defense when they can't make a coherent argument. It isn't like i said he sucks or can't possibly become a good player.

If he was making $18+ million per year his flaws would be a lot more glaring and that is what i see coming down the road.

[Brapman]

He's a potential all-star talent who is just 22. Yes, I think he has to improve a lot to reach that status, and I get (and have argued) he has fallen short of expectations so far. But, he's capable of great things if he improves and stays healthy.

My only point posting here is to point out that he might never get there. And he might.