Bradley Beal - Part II

[Hidden Eye]

Wittman needs to let Beal be the PG during the reg season and switch Wall positions, only for the better. He has a good shot making the ASG this season.

[payitforward]

He needs to improve his FT% as well. With his form, he should be shooting 85+%, not shooting in the 70s. That alone would bump his PPG average quite a bit.

Really? Would it? What, about .15 more points per game?

oooops, I note that Nate made this point. I mean this percentage point.

[payitforward]

My only point posting here is to point out that he might never get there. And he might.

That's it, huh? Well, I'm glad someone said it!

????

[Brapman]

... and, the obvious inference from that is that he's NOT a great player yet.

[Higga]

He needs to improve his FT% as well. With his form, he should be shooting 85+%, not shooting in the 70s. That alone would bump his PPG average quite a bit.

I agree that his free throw shooting isn't particularly stellar for a guy who is supposed to be an elite shooter, but we shouldn't overstate the issue. If he shot 85% instead of the 78% he shot last year he would have made a grand total of 11 more free throws on the season. That would have boosted his scoring average from 15.3 to 15.5.

Well he needs to shoot more FTs as well, AND hit them at a higher %.

[payitforward]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2015/09/11/extension-talks-between-bradley-beal-and-the-wizards-arent-progressing-that-might-be-for-the-best-for-both-sides/

[dangermouse]

So whats the deal with Beal? If he isnt signed, he sticks around and becomes a RFA next summer?

Whats the best course of action here (for us & Beal)? Obviously Beal could get paid a lot more and we have a better shot at KD if he isnt signed now.... but what could agents be whispering in his ear? WHat do ya'll think will happen?

[nate33]

So whats the deal with Beal? If he isnt signed, he sticks around and becomes a RFA next summer?

Whats the best course of action here (for us & Beal)? Obviously Beal could get paid a lot more and we have a better shot at KD if he isnt signed now.... but what could agents be whispering in his ear? WHat do ya'll think will happen?

The deal is that Beal is likely to get an offer starting at roughly $22M if he waits until next summer. Meanwhile, his cap hold is just $14.3M. It makes no sense for the Wizards to extend him now to a contract that starts significantly higher than $14.3M because it'll eat into their cap room next summer. It makes no sense for Beal to sign an extension now for a salary that is significantly less than the $22M he is likely to get if he waits until next summer.

There really isn't anything to discuss and there is no "middle ground". My guess is that both sides completely understand the perspective of their counterpart and there are no hard feelings. They're just resigned to the fact that they're going to have to wait until next summer to get a deal done.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2015/09/11/extension-talks-between-bradley-beal-and-the-wizards-arent-progressing-that-might-be-for-the-best-for-both-sides/

Other prominent members of Beal’s 2012 draft class – top pick Anthony Davis, No. 2 selection Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and sixth pick Damian Lillard – have signed extensions this summer. Davis signed the richest contract in league history (a five-year pact worth $145 million he was eligible for because of the Derrick Rose Rule in the CBA), Kidd-Gilchrist went for $52 million over four years, and Lillard signed for a five-year max of $120 million.

The circumstances, however, are different for Beal and the Wizards. Unlike Davis and Lillard, Beal, the third pick in the 2012 draft, is not the undisputed franchise player on his team. That title goes to Wall. But Beal also figures to garner a richer contract than Kidd-Gilchrist, a defensive dynamo with offensive limitations.

I recall suggesting in 2012 that instead of drafting Beal the Wizards should trade down for Damian Lillard. That draft I really wanted Kidd-Gilchrist.

I still think MKG is the better player between him and Beal. I think Beal's scoring isn't prolific enough to distinguish him as the better player. But that's just my opinion. What seems obvious is Lillard is a better player than Beal.

I'm fairly ignorant on cap issues. nate33 is a genius in that area IMO. My simplistic valuation on Beal would be that he should earn nominally more than MKG and much less than Lillard. Use those two salaries to arrive at a fair offer for Beal. ===> MKG agreed to $13 M per season. Lillard got $24M per. Therefore, I'd say Beal should be offered no more than about $17.5M per year or $70M over four seasons. It's 18M richer than MKG who IMO is better (check relative plus minus and win share on that). Beal gets more but nowhere near max of $88M.

Is that reasonable, nate?

IMO Beal should note that greats like Michael Jordan delayed the gratification of having a huge salary just to accommodate signing players like Toni Kucoc. I would go with whatever nate thinks on what to do with Beal.

Bradley must have a perceived market value..

What is that number over 4 years? Which teams might offer too much for Beal for Washington to match? My gut tells me there are Kris Middleton type SGs out there to be on rookie contracts. Beal is replaceable a lot easier than most think IMO.


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

[pcbothwel]

If Brad wants the Max, i offer him to the Bulls for Mirotic and Taj.

2016
Rose
Beal
Butler / McDermott
Gasol / Portis
Noah/ Portis

In 2017, they only have Beal, Butler, Doug, and Portis on the books and could sign Ibaka, Griffin, or Curry.

By trading Beal for an elite stretch 4 like Mirotic, KD fits into the 3 even better as Oubre collects more minutes at the 2. We also cannot discount the acquisition of Taj either and could be a great role player for a run in 2016

[nate33]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wizards-insider/wp/2015/09/11/extension-talks-between-bradley-beal-and-the-wizards-arent-progressing-that-might-be-for-the-best-for-both-sides/

Other prominent members of Beal’s 2012 draft class – top pick Anthony Davis, No. 2 selection Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and sixth pick Damian Lillard – have signed extensions this summer. Davis signed the richest contract in league history (a five-year pact worth $145 million he was eligible for because of the Derrick Rose Rule in the CBA), Kidd-Gilchrist went for $52 million over four years, and Lillard signed for a five-year max of $120 million.

The circumstances, however, are different for Beal and the Wizards. Unlike Davis and Lillard, Beal, the third pick in the 2012 draft, is not the undisputed franchise player on his team. That title goes to Wall. But Beal also figures to garner a richer contract than Kidd-Gilchrist, a defensive dynamo with offensive limitations.

I recall suggesting in 2012 that instead of drafting Beal the Wizards should trade down for Damian Lillard. That draft I really wanted Kidd-Gilchrist.

I still think MKG is the better player between him and Beal. I think Beal's scoring isn't prolific enough to distinguish him as the better player. But that's just my opinion. What seems obvious is Lillard is a better player than Beal.

I'm fairly ignorant on cap issues. nate33 is a genius in that area IMO. My simplistic valuation on Beal would be he that he should earn nominally more than MKG and much less than Lillard. Use those two salaries to arrive at a fair offer for Beal. ===> MKG agreed to $13 M per season. Lillard got $24M per. Therefore, I'd say Beal should be offered no more than about $17.5M per year or $70M over four seasons. It's 18M richer than MKG who IMO is better (check relative plus minus and win share on that). Beal gets more but nowhere near max of $88M.

Is that reasonable, nate?

I think $17M is fair market value. However, I don't think the Wizards will be so fortunate. The problem is that something like 24 teams will have max cap room next summer. Somebody is going to offer him a max contract because he's arguably the 5th best free agent out there behind Durant, Howard, Horford and Drummond (who will probably be extended).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think $17M is fair market value. However, I don't think the Wizards will be so fortunate. The problem is that something like 24 teams will have max cap room next summer. Somebody is going to offer him a max contract because he's arguably the 5th best free agent out there behind Durant, Howard, Horford and Drummond (who will probably be extended).

Thanks, nate.

What I believe both sides on the Beal contract negotiations should do is be cordial and the Wizards should be transparent. Let Beal's financial team (stated to reflect separate entity from his current basketball team) understand ahead of time that sides will likely remain split. For planning purposes, suggest they name teams and acceptable trades for Bradley in lieu of waiting for the inevitable.

When I see guards like Josh Jackson still in the HS ranks but already better than Bradley IMO, I think Beal’s ego tripping if he thinks he's a max player. Let another team give him 100M but better still, BE POSITIVE and proactive enough to reward him for his outstanding contributions to the Wizards. Part on good terms with him having autonomy to call his new team.

(Anyone think I'm taking too hard a stance?)



"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

[nate33]

What I believe both sides on the Beal contract negotiations should do is be cordial and the Wizards should be transparent. Let Beal's financial team (stated to reflect separate entity from his current basketball team) understand ahead of time that sides will likely remain split. For planning purposes, suggest they name teams and acceptable trades for Bradley in lieu of waiting for the inevitable.

I understand the gut reaction to avoid "overpaying" a player. In the past, one or two bad mistakes on a contract could really hamstring a franchise for years. But that's really not much of an issue for the immediate future. Even if we overpay Beal and sign Durant to a max contract, we will still have about $9M in cap room. And the next year, the cap will jump another $20M giving us a ton more room to resign Porter and add more depth. And even after taking care of all these things, we will still be merely at the cap level, not over the cap or anywhere near the luxtax. We will have the option to use the MLE exception to add even more depth for years to come.

Basically, over the next few years, it's going to be real hard to put yourself into cap hell even if you were intentionally trying to sabotage the future of your team.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Two cautions: 1. Avoid overpaying injury-prone players. (Arenas' deal was something I forewarned against). 2. Avoid paying Beal more than Wall--John already balked on Reggie Jackson getting paid what he did.*

*I think Jackson will prove Wall wrong and he will pay Detroit huge dividends. Jackson is going to blow up and maybe overtake John is my prediction.

Maxing out Beal will very likely preclude John Wall wanting more $$. Team chemistry could be compromised.


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

[thricethefun]

Two cautions: 1. Avoid overpaying injury-prone players. 2. Avoid paying Beal more than Wall, who already spoke out on Reggie Jackson's deal.

Signing Beal means be prepared for Wall to want a new, much more lucrative deal.


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

We don't have to worry about giving Wall a new deal until 2019. The good news is we have Wall on a bargain so if we do end up giving Beal the max we will be overpaying Beal but that will be offset by how much we are underpaying Wall.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Two cautions: 1. Avoid overpaying injury-prone players. 2. Avoid paying Beal more than Wall, who already spoke out on Reggie Jackson's deal.

Signing Beal means be prepared for Wall to want a new, much more lucrative deal.


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

We don't have to worry about giving Wall a new deal until 2019. The good news is we have Wall on a bargain so if we do end up giving Beal the max we will be overpaying Beal but that will be offset by how much we are underpaying Wall.

You don't think he would immediately become disgruntled? Of course he signed his deal and it binds until 2019. Would he play unhappily 3 or four years??


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

[DCZards]

Two cautions: 1. Avoid overpaying injury-prone players. (Arenas' deal was something I forewarned against). 2. Avoid paying Beal more than Wall--John already balked on Reggie Jackson getting paid what he did.*

*I think Jackson will prove Wall wrong and he will pay Detroit huge dividends. Jackson is going to blow up and maybe overtake John is my prediction.

So if I'm reading you correctly, ccj, you expect Reggie Jackson to "blow up" and become one of the top 5-7 PGs in the NBA.

[nate33]

Two cautions: 1. Avoid overpaying injury-prone players. 2. Avoid paying Beal more than Wall, who already spoke out on Reggie Jackson's deal.

Signing Beal means be prepared for Wall to want a new, much more lucrative deal.


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

We don't have to worry about giving Wall a new deal until 2019. The good news is we have Wall on a bargain so if we do end up giving Beal the max we will be overpaying Beal but that will be offset by how much we are underpaying Wall.

You don't think he would immediately become disgruntled? Of course he signed his deal and it binds until 2019. Would he play unhappily 3 or four years?

Given the choice between Beal walking or Beal staying and being paid more than Wall (temporarily, for the next 3 years), I think Wall would prefer that Beal stay and get overpaid. I'm sure Wall understands that the sudden massive increase in the salary cap will necessarily result in the rapid escalation of salaries.

[DCZards]

We don't have to worry about giving Wall a new deal until 2019. The good news is we have Wall on a bargain so if we do end up giving Beal the max we will be overpaying Beal but that will be offset by how much we are underpaying Wall.

You don't think he would immediately become disgruntled? Of course he signed his deal and it binds until 2019. Would he play unhappily 3 or four years?

Given the choice between Beal walking or Beal staying and being paid more than Wall (temporarily, for the next 3 years), I think Wall would prefer that Beal stay and get overpaid. I'm sure Wall understands that the sudden massive increase in the salary cap will necessarily result in the rapid escalation of salaries.

On top of that, Wall will probably continue to make more money in endorsements than Beal. And the more the Zards win the more endorsement money that Wall will make. So, year, JWall would prefer that Beal stay.

Endorsement money was one of the reasons that Jordan could sacrifice salary money in order to sign Kukoc. MJ was making more money in endorsements than he was making as an NBA player.

[Dat2U]

Two cautions: 1. Avoid overpaying injury-prone players. (Arenas' deal was something I forewarned against). 2. Avoid paying Beal more than Wall--John already balked on Reggie Jackson getting paid what he did.*

*I think Jackson will prove Wall wrong and he will pay Detroit huge dividends. Jackson is going to blow up and maybe overtake John is my prediction.

Maxing out Beal will very likely preclude John Wall wanting more $$. Team chemistry could be compromised.


"Do not despise these small beginnings, for the Lord rejoices to see the work begin,"
"Be the change you want to be."

If we were to go off your opinion alone, most of the guards in the NBA would have passed John by now.

Let's give a quick refresher on guys who would be better than John according to what you've thought the last few years.

Damian Lillard
Kyrie Irving
Eric Bledsoe
Jeff Teague
Reggie Jackson
Brandon Jennings
Kemba Walker
Jeremy Lin
Kendall Marshall
Michael Carter-Williams
Brandon Knight

I'm sure I missed a few.