Post#25 » by dagger » Thu Sep 3, 2015 10:00 pm
If Rogers decided to extend the success of this team into 2016, which would likely require a further payroll bump to assure a solid pitching staff and maybe hang on to Ben Revere, it could do so. It basically means extending the excitement over the winter, through the season ticket renewal and sales period. That's a function of FA signings, our own and not much more. It was estimated by a US marketing agency that each Jays fan spends $67 on average at the game on the ticket, food, beverage, merchandise. It wouldn't be unreasonable, in such a scenario, to budget for about 3.3 million fans (90% of capacity), or about $221 million spent just at the stadium. Even if you think that per-fan spending is on the high side, if you cut that back by a third, you're still get almost CAD $150 million spent at the stadium alone. It doesn't count other merchandise sales or US TV revenues. The Jays equal share of US National TV revenues is about US$51m. Rogers would presumably be able to sign much more lucrative advertising deals for the Jays next season. But here things get murky because Rogers wants them to be murky. Each team gets to keep 66% of its local TV rights money, but since Rogers is believed to be giving the Jays something like $35m for those rights, the true profit for Rogers is hidden from view. Rogers gets to keep the ad revenue, the carriage fees on other cable networks, etc. It gets a halo benefit now for its other programming. Moreover, it's killing TSN - between the national NHL deal and the Jays success, they are dominating the sports network scene. That has to have massive value. To put things in perspective, the Jays current TV ratings - which don't necessarily cover streaming on-demand views on computers, phones, tablets etc. - are in the same range as ESPN's Sunday Night Game of the Week and well above Dodger ratings in Southern California. The Dodgers were averaging 40,000 homes in June, the Angels 80,000. Much of the disparity for the Dodgers is a function of distribution issues. but Dodger viewership on local channels peaked at 154,000 in 2013.
The Blue Jays are averaging multiples of those Dodger numbers for which Fox is paying megabucks. Last night;s Cleveland mid-week game here in Toronto got 1.8 million viewers. Let that sink in! 1.8 million viewers.
I'm not even going to deal with playoff revenues since the MLB formula is more complicated than the NHL or NBA formula for how much of the gate the home team keeps.
The fact Rogers is putting out press releases to boast of their ratings only underscores just how powerful they are in terms of potentially influencing even a big conglomerate's bottom line. There is no excuse not to give the team a large market payroll for next season. In fact, it would be incredibly short sighted even for Rogers if it didn't
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