Aging arms & lengthy contracts

[EastBayBoy]

At this point it is a forgone conclusion that David Price will get a contract in the neighborhood of 6-7 years for about 200-230 million. There's a long list of star pitchers who's production has declined after signing long contracts and entering their 30s. This leaves the team paying high salaries for very little production for the end of their contracts/ careers. Guys like CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander and after this year arguably King Felix has lost a few MPH and MAY be on the decline in the near future, just to name a few.

How many years do you think Price will give a team ( be it, Toronto or any other team) good production before they have to bite the bullet and pay for the rest of the salary when his numbers start to decline ?

[Sticks]

6 years and 200 million is fine for David price. He's a free agent. Free agents get paid big.

Beurhle is most definitely gone next year. ( he's admitted that each start he has been struggling and beat down) even though he's still pitched excellent for us. I wouldn't re sign him unless it was for short tern ( 2 years max) at a "home town discount" contract .
So there's 20 million right there.

Who knows what Estrada will command in free agency we might have to let him walk if he wants too much


Next year without price the rotation could very well be

Stroman
Dickey
Estrada/Sanchez????
Hutchinson
Sanchez/Osuna/AAA starter???

That's not a playoff caliber starting rotation unless everything goes better than perfect.

We need Price OR some other bonfied ace at the top of the rotation to push every body down a spot in the rotation. Who knows how stroman performs next year. If dickey can keep his velocity and control on the knuckle ball, if Hutchinson can pitch like he has been for past 3 starts....if if if

Too many question marks for the rotation with no David price at the top

[Skin Blues]

If dickey can keep his velocity and control on the knuckle ball

Dickey hasn't had the velocity on his knuckleball since he was a Met. He and Estrada are as good as gone. We're gonna have serious rotation issues to deal with in the offseason, but I'm confident something will get done.

[protothe]

You mentioned Verlander, but I think he's turned a corner and the past 1-2 years have been an outlier. He's been outright dominant the past 4 starts. Next season is a good year to judge. He's been hurt a good portion of the year, and last year definitely seems like an outlier to me.

Dickey is still an innings eater which is always valuable so I think the Jays pick up his option. He's still a solid #3-4 in a rotation.
He'll keep his ERA around 4 and go 6-8 innings every night.

I think people forget how good Stroman can be. He's not #1 material, but he's a solid #2.

You gotta pay for a #1. Scherzer got paid by the Nats and is actually putting up better numbers, although the Nats offense can't seem to provide any support for him. I think for the right pitcher, regardless of age, I would pony up the cash. Older pitchers tend to dominate with command and control. Although Price has mostly relied on his power beforehand, he's still dominant even with his velocity dropping. I can see him being at this level for at least another 5 years.

[Sticks]

If dickey can keep his velocity and control on the knuckle ball

Dickey hasn't had the velocity on his knuckleball since he was a Met. He and Estrada are as good as gone. We're gonna have serious rotation issues to deal with in the offseason, but I'm confident something will get done.

Yea that's true but what I meant was if dickey could keep his velocity from going lower. The velocity of his knuckle ball right now is good enough.

[The_Hater]

If dickey can keep his velocity and control on the knuckle ball

Dickey hasn't had the velocity on his knuckleball since he was a Met. He and Estrada are as good as gone. We're gonna have serious rotation issues to deal with in the offseason, but I'm confident something will get done.

Just because Dickey isn't the star he was with the Mets far too many Jays fans think he's without value. For 3 straight seasons now he's been an average to above average innings eater in the tough AL east. And knuckleballers tend to age well too. If the Jays could get Dickey back for 1 season in the $10-11 million range that would be a pretty good, low risk signing for a #3-4 SP.

But there are certainly a lot of SP questions with the top 4 starters heading to free-agency.

[polo007]

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the feeling is if the Toronto Blue Jays can find a way to sign Price long term, and also tie up Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion beyond next year, they should be a powerhouse in the American League East for some time.

Mark Buehrle has suddenly made himself a valuable commodity in the free agent market. Before the season, the Toronto Blue Jays shuddered at having to pay him $20 million in the final year of his contract. Now they are hoping they can keep him.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/08/29/red-sox-race-crowded-with-candidates/F0yUzx1GXfwPNXvxvZOWJL/story.html

3. David Price, LHP, Blue Jays — The Rogers Corporation finally woke up and spent big to overhaul the roster at the deadline. The feeling is if the Jays can find a way to sign Price long term, and also tie up Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion beyond next year, they should be a powerhouse in the American League East for some time.

4. Mark Buehrle, LHP, Blue Jays — Suddenly Buehrle has made himself a valuable commodity in the free agent market. Before the season, the Jays shuddered at having to pay him $20 million in the final year of his contract. Now they are hoping they can keep him. Buehrle is 36, but with 165 innings he’s likely to throw his 15th straight season of 200. He’s also 13-6 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.182 WHIP. He also leads the majors with four complete games. The 212-game winner was a 38th-round pick in the 1998 draft. Said one major league GM, “We talk about innings eaters, but he’s more than that. He wins.”

[Sticks]

Anybody that knows ....
Doesnt dickey have a team option on his contract ???
I thought he had an option for 2016

[BigLeagueChew]

Anybody that knows ....
Doesnt dickey have a team option on his contract ???
I thought he had an option for 2016

Team option for 12m. His performance so far has been worth close to $8m. Needs a strong finish to the year to guarantee that option being picked up.

[The_Hater]

Anybody that knows ....
Doesnt dickey have a team option on his contract ???
I thought he had an option for 2016

Team option for 12m. His performance so far has been worth close to $8m. Needs a strong finish to the year to guarantee that option being picked up.

Throw out the first 2 months and Dickey has been worth far more than $12 million I'm sure. And those 2 months in question was his worst stretch as a Blue Jay.

It's quite possible the Jays pick up his option based on that and to have less SP holes to fill. The more holes their are to fill the more agents will use it as leverage in negotiations.

EDIT: I just checked and there's a $1 million buyout for the Jays so it's only an $11 million decision. I have a strong feeling the Jays will pick that up.

[BigLeagueChew]

Throw out the first 2 months and Dickey has been worth far more than $12 million I'm sure. And those 2 months in question was his worst stretch as a Blue Jay.

It's quite possible the Jays pick up his option based on that and to have less SP holes to fill. The more holes their are to fill the more agents will use it as leverage in negotiations.

Yes he's nearing some of his numbers of the last 2 years. 2014 season ended in value of around $13m and 2013 it was $12M, His Cy young year was valued at a whopping $32M. Their isn't any reason he can't finish the season strong , he's not 'done' like others thought in May/early June.

[The_Hater]

IS Estrada out of arbitration years? He's a UFA?

[Skin Blues]

The problem is that he's been basically 100% healthy and still falling short of 2 fWAR in his 3 years in Toronto. Basically everything has gone right for him and he's still not all that good. If we were assured of 200 innings of a 4.00 ERA then definitely I'd be on board with picking up his option, but at this point that's his ceiling, not his expected output. You have to factor in the very real chance that he puts up a 150 IP, 5+ ERA season.

[Sticks]

IS Estrada out of arbitration years? He's a UFA?

Yup he's a Ufa
Good for him hes gonna get paid because of his performance this year. Sucks for the jays though.

[Sticks]

The problem is that he's been basically 100% healthy and still falling short of 2 fWAR in his 3 years in Toronto. Basically everything has gone right for him and he's still not all that good. If we were assured of 200 innings of a 4.00 ERA then definitely I'd be on board with picking up his option, but at this point that's his ceiling, not his expected output. You have to factor in the very real chance that he puts up a 150 IP, 5+ ERA season.

If not dickey than who though?
Who on the free agent market can we get for 11 million $ that would be a number 3 or 4 starter for the jays rotation next year .

I think the jays have to pick up dickey, especially if we don't re sign David price.

[Skin Blues]

Maybe we sign Dickey for $8M or soemthing, I don't know. Haven't looked that closely, but I assume there are other pitchers of his caliber or better that will be available. There's also the possibility of a trade. Travis could be a pretty nice trade chip in the offseason and might land us a good starter with a few years of control.

[Michael Bradley]

Dickey's RA9-WAR is 2.5 this season with a month to go. The prior two seasons it was 2.4 (2013) and 2.7 (2014). He is a solid mid/low rotation innings eater. The Jays have two starters locked up for 2016: Stroman and Hutchison. Picking up Dickey's option is a no brainer at this point. They can't bank on re-signing Price, or bringing Buehrle back. Pick up Dickey's option as a security net, if nothing else, and if signing Price/Buehrle/whoever becomes more realistic, then try to trade Dickey's salary from there (I'm sure a team like the Royals who value innings eaters would take him, for example).

Price on a seven year deal would be a bad investment. A ton of mileage on his arm and he's already 30. However, for PR and short-term reasons, it's something the Jays have to try. It's not like they have high upside pitching prospects knocking down the door right now.

[polo007]

According to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, David Price really likes it in Toronto. If new Toronto Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro gets the go-ahead from ownership he will likely do all he can to keep him. The Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Nationals, and Red Sox are teams that could come after him hard. This one could be north of seven years/$210 million.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/09/05/baseball-contenders-strengths-could-also-weaknesses/OWkq0Yt8QCMWRikkgvwkFL/story.html

7. David Price, LHP, Blue Jays — Word from team sources is that Price really likes it in Toronto. If new Jays president Mark Shapiro gets the go-ahead from ownership he will likely do all he can to keep him. The Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees, Nationals, and Red Sox are teams that could come after him hard. This one could be north of seven years/$210 million.

[dagger]

Dickey's RA9-WAR is 2.5 this season with a month to go. The prior two seasons it was 2.4 (2013) and 2.7 (2014). He is a solid mid/low rotation innings eater. The Jays have two starters locked up for 2016: Stroman and Hutchison. Picking up Dickey's option is a no brainer at this point. They can't bank on re-signing Price, or bringing Buehrle back. Pick up Dickey's option as a security net, if nothing else, and if signing Price/Buehrle/whoever becomes more realistic, then try to trade Dickey's salary from there (I'm sure a team like the Royals who value innings eaters would take him, for example).

Price on a seven year deal would be a bad investment. A ton of mileage on his arm and he's already 30. However, for PR and short-term reasons, it's something the Jays have to try. It's not like they have high upside pitching prospects knocking down the door right now.

On Price, if you're going to play like a big market team, and Rogers is finally seeing the windfall it can achieve with a fully charged lineup and fan base, then you pay the money and hold your nose about the downstream consequences. You hope he remains a top pitcher through the end of Tulo's and Martin's contract. In the end, you might end up with a couple of bad seasons when he's a fat overpay. But it's better to look back two or three years at a pair of world series wins than to look back 22 or 23 years. Hopefully, by the late years of his contract, Stroman, maybe Sanchez, and others in the system are the front end of a good rotation, and guys like Alford, Tellez, Urena and Guerrero Junior have arrived to take over the mantle from Jose, EE, Tulo, etc.

[dagger]

Dickey's RA9-WAR is 2.5 this season with a month to go. The prior two seasons it was 2.4 (2013) and 2.7 (2014). He is a solid mid/low rotation innings eater. The Jays have two starters locked up for 2016: Stroman and Hutchison. Picking up Dickey's option is a no brainer at this point. They can't bank on re-signing Price, or bringing Buehrle back. Pick up Dickey's option as a security net, if nothing else, and if signing Price/Buehrle/whoever becomes more realistic, then try to trade Dickey's salary from there (I'm sure a team like the Royals who value innings eaters would take him, for example).

Price on a seven year deal would be a bad investment. A ton of mileage on his arm and he's already 30. However, for PR and short-term reasons, it's something the Jays have to try. It's not like they have high upside pitching prospects knocking down the door right now.

On Price, if you're going to play like a big market team, and Rogers is finally seeing the windfall it can achieve with a fully charged lineup and fan base, then you pay the money and hold your nose about the downstream consequences. You hope he remains a top pitcher through the end of Tulo's and Martin's contract. In the end, you might end up with a couple of bad seasons when he's a fat overpay. But it's better to look back two or three years at a pair of world series wins than to look back 22 or 23 years. Hopefully, by the late years of his contract, Stroman, maybe Sanchez, and others in the system are the front end of a good rotation, and guys like Alford, Tellez, Urena and Guerrero Junior have arrived to take over the mantle from Jose, EE, Tulo, etc.

On Dickey, one more season at $12m is likely as good value as you can expect on the open market.