Preseason Games Thread

[FNQ]

Who did I say was a wasted pick? Don't you think Denico Autry has been more interesting this preseason?


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Mario Edwards.
viewtopic.php?f=172&t=1379057&start=100#start_here

Man Reggie effed up his second round pick :/


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Autry has been very good this preseason as well. Autry, however, wasn't a former #1 HS prospect who gained weight to play a position that he hadn't before. Autry is also more of a run-stuffer, which while that's valuable in it's own right, isn't as valuable as an end rusher, which MEJ is. Funny enough, around the 1/4 mark of the season last year, you were critiquing Mack for not getting to the QB despite him crushing it on run D (from OLB, which made it harder for him to get to the QB). So why is Autry now higher in your mind than Edwards when Edwards is showing out in a premium role - edge rushing - and Autry is showing out at an important, yet lesser role - edge setting?

Carr, FWIW, has been a checkdown monster and has forced passes unnecessarily. He's mostly based on potential, or do you consider what he is now a good to great QB? I sure don't. He's shown flashes. Only one player on the roster has shown and maintained star potential, and that's Mack. Cooper looks to have the same star quality thus far. MEJ and Carr both have tools, pedigrees, and have to prove it on the field. Neither has shown they are a definitive answer yet, but the potential is there for both of them to be top shelf players. That Carr had a nice year of checkdowns, some garbage time stats, and 3 wins under his belt doesn't make him the guaranteed answer yet. But I dont think he's too far ahead of MEJ, who manhandled the Cardinals line and has been impressive after faltering in his 1st game against 1s and 2s. If you see him and aren't impressed, you pretty much have to be trying really hard not to be.

[Twinkie defense]

With the red flags about Edwards' commitment, conditioning, preparation, I thought it was a risky pick at the top of the second round, a stretch. Personally I would rather have guys that love football, work, overachieve, but have fewer measurables, than guys with a lot of genetic advantages who aren't committed, hard workers. But no it's not a wasted pick. I hope he does great, and if he does he and Areggie get a lot of credit - more credit than making an obvious pick like Mack, Carr, Cooper.

Re. Mack, for a guy some projected as the best player in the draft, and at his position, of course sacks are the main currency. And I think this season Mack will easily have double digit sack totals, and be maybe a top 5 defensive player in the League. He's beasting. But if he gets four sacks of course he is due for some criticism - it's ridiculous to think Mack and Autry have the same measuring stick.

I have seen enough from Carr to see he is a top 15 QB. Could improve on that. 16 games of tape and you can make those determinations.

[benchmobbin02]

You think Carr is a top 15 QB? Enough said.

Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Luck, Brees, Manning Sr, , Manning Jr, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Flacco, Palmer, Stafford, Tannehill. That is 14. I don't think you can make a argument that he is better than any of them. So he is fighting with Newton, Foles, Cutler, Bridgewater, Dalton and Smith in the next tier.

I love Carr! I love the leadership he brings. I love his poise and arm strength. I love his athleteism and when he chooses to use it. I love his professionalism. But he isn't there yet. I expect him to take those steps this year tho. You have to win games to move up. He didn't lose them alone and that is why I think he has a chance to step up, because he has more help and experience. but not there yet. I would put behind Newton, Dalton, Smith and maybe even Bridgewater in front of him til I see he can win so games.

I know stats aren't everything but they are something and he was 28th with a QBR of 38.2 last year.

[FNQ]

With the red flags about Edwards' commitment, conditioning, preparation, I thought it was a risky pick at the top of the second round, a stretch. Personally I would rather have guys that love football, work, overachieve, but have fewer measurables, than guys with a lot of genetic advantages who aren't committed, hard workers. But no it's not a wasted pick. I hope he does great, and if he does he and Areggie get a lot of credit - more credit than making an obvious pick like Mack, Carr, Cooper.

Re. Mack, for a guy some projected as the best player in the draft, and at his position, of course sacks are the main currency. And I think this season Mack will easily have double digit sack totals, and be maybe a top 5 defensive player in the League. He's beasting. But if he gets four sacks of course he is due for some criticism - it's ridiculous to think Mack and Autry have the same measuring stick.

I have seen enough from Carr to see he is a top 15 QB. Could improve on that. 16 games of tape and you can make those determinations.

So you would expect a 4-3 OLB to get a ton of sacks when he was rarely blitzing? Seems a bit unrealistic, especially when the guy in front of him was absolutely terrible at eating blockers. And it's not measuring Autry and Mack the same way - its the way that when you want to criticize someone, you'll change the parameters of your beliefs. Autry is looking like a beast in the run game, MEJ looking like a beast in the pass game, and you're more pumped about Autry, who also has done nothing in the regular season, because... ? Only conclusion I can see that makes any sense is that Autry wasn't talked down by you when he was drafted (signed) by the GM you said wouldn't be here last year. This isnt isolated, that's all.

Carr has top 15 potential, there's a huge difference between that and actually being in the top half of QBs in the league. I'd love to see if he had more checkdown passes (<5 yards) than Alex Smith last year, because he just might have.

[FNQ]

You think Carr is a top 15 QB? Enough said.

Brady, Rodgers, Big Ben, Luck, Brees, Manning Sr, , Manning Jr, Rivers, Romo, Ryan, Flacco, Palmer, Stafford, Tannehill. That is 14. I don't think you can make a argument that he is better than any of them. So he is fighting with Newton, Foles, Cutler, Bridgewater, Dalton and Smith in the next tier.

I'd definitely have Cam above Carr right now - imagine if Carr had the worst OL in the league - and I think Bradford (pending health), and Teddy are ahead of him right now as well. It's not outlandish calling him top 15, but really you are looking at him *maybe* being top15 if things go right for him out of the gate. I think he has top10 potential, but we need to see him take this team farther to get anywhere near that. Based on last year and this preseason, I think this year is a growing year for Carr with ups and downs as he learns how to play with actually talented players on offense.

I said it at the beginning of last year, we need 2 years to grow while the rest of our division ages, and by 2016 we should be looking at a division contender.

[benchmobbin02]

I didnt include Bradford because they don't have production at the same time period (2014) to compare. Just left him off but if you wanna go by history then yeah.

Either he is or he isn't in your opinion. You said you have Cam and Bradford and Teddy over him so you think he is 18th in your eyes. Not talking about in the future. That wasn't the statement we were discussing. Still a vast overreach for what the stats layout but perception and starting jobs tilt the scales for us.

[Twinkie defense]

At QB stats are part of the equation, but can be very misleading - I think PFT had him rated as the worst, or one of the worst, QBs in the League last season, and if you watch the games, clearly he is not. If he had a lot of check downs last season that was because he had a weak line, poor receivers, no run game, and an offensive system that didn't take advantage of his strengths. But he can make all the reads, go through his progressions, make all of the throws, make the right decision, get rid of the ball quickly. That's why he is already a top 15 QB in my book. If we want to talk about potential, his potential is certainly higher than top 15. I think that's going to be very evident as soon as Sunday - it's not a ton of development he needed, it's having better receivers and an offensive scheme that better suits his skills. After the last couple preseason games I'm somewhat worried about our run blocking but even if the run game has fits and starts, just opening up the offense and having more quality targets Carr is going to open up some eyes.

[benchmobbin02]

You are marginalizing the stats aspect but in every listor ranking of QB he is near the bottom because it's not just his bad stats but his terrible winning percentage and how he gained the success he did have (simple offense-short throws).

Now you can say that he has the potential to be better and you can say that the bad elements around him caused him to look worst than his ability and that it is alot better now. But that is all in the future - potential.

We were talking about how he ranked now and QBs in this league are rated including all those aspects but not on potential. So he is below guys like Cam, Tannehill and Bridgewater and not only the top 10 to 15 until he proves that he isn't. Ranking at the end of this year will be different as I had said in the beginning.

[Quake Griffin]

Is Carr a top 15 QB? no
Would I take 15 QBs over him? no.

he has a lot to work on.
Particularly his footwork and sometimes imo he sees ghosts. Those guys do an alright job up front protecting him. Doesn't feel like he trusts that all the time.

[Twinkie defense]

You are marginalizing the stats aspect but in every listor ranking of QB he is near the bottom because it's not just his bad stats but his terrible winning percentage and how he gained the success he did have (simple offense-short throws).

Now you can say that he has the potential to be better and you can say that the bad elements around him caused him to look worst than his ability and that it is alot better now. But that is all in the future - potential.

We were talking about how he ranked now and QBs in this league are rated including all those aspects but not on potential. So he is below guys like Cam, Tannehill and Bridgewater and not only the top 10 to 15 until he proves that he isn't. Ranking at the end of this year will be different as I had said in the beginning.

I don't think he is behind Bridgewater, for one.

Winning percentage is a joke stat for Carr - Tom Brady would have won maybe five games with this crew. It is not Carr that was responsible for the worst defense in the Raiders 50 year+ history. As of right now - not potential, but right now - Carr is an above average QB in the League. If you listen to opposing GMs and scouts they love him, not just what they hope he may become.

Again, being able to go through the progressions, make quick decisions, throw all the routes, these are things he's shown he can do already.

[Neddy]

athletically, this kid is a special talent.
I think he's going to be a special player. He's gonna devour the run and he's going to develop into a solid bullying pass rusher IMO even though he wont have the sexy sack total to show for it. I'll come back later with quotes about this kid from Tuck and Mack. They love this kid and think he's going to be special as well.

edit:
there were a number of questions about his weight and work ethic. In short….why was he the #1 prospect in HS but his college performance lacked? He addressed those. Said his weight was a function of being left up to his own devices and not knowing what to eat. He got it under control going into camp by having a nutritionist. Shouldn't be a problem moving forward although I don't mind any Raider fan leaving that as a question mark.

that is some nimble agility from a guy with a size nobody would expect such.

[benchmobbin02]

Quake has it right. HE IS NOT A TOP 15 QB IN THE LEAGUE! But if you were redrafting this year he would be in the top 15.

Just because you don't agree with how QB are ranked doesn't change how it is done. His stats and winning percentage do matter in any ranking currently done as well as his physical traits, his intangibles and decision making. Sorry. Just facts. Now if you want to make your own ranking and base it only on his progressions, making quick decisions and throwing all the routes then go ahead and we can start a thread and discuss that but in the overall sense of judging NFL QBs that wouldn't stand and never has.

[FNQ]

You are marginalizing the stats aspect but in every listor ranking of QB he is near the bottom because it's not just his bad stats but his terrible winning percentage and how he gained the success he did have (simple offense-short throws).

Now you can say that he has the potential to be better and you can say that the bad elements around him caused him to look worst than his ability and that it is alot better now. But that is all in the future - potential.

We were talking about how he ranked now and QBs in this league are rated including all those aspects but not on potential. So he is below guys like Cam, Tannehill and Bridgewater and not only the top 10 to 15 until he proves that he isn't. Ranking at the end of this year will be different as I had said in the beginning.

I don't think he is behind Bridgewater, for one.

Winning percentage is a joke stat for Carr - Tom Brady would have won maybe five games with this crew. It is not Carr that was responsible for the worst defense in the Raiders 50 year+ history. As of right now - not potential, but right now - Carr is an above average QB in the League. If you listen to opposing GMs and scouts they love him, not just what they hope he may become.

Again, being able to go through the progressions, make quick decisions, throw all the routes, these are things he's shown he can do already.

Bridgewater was dropping pinpoint passes against defenses, including ours, all preseason.. he has exceptional touch, his issue is a lack of arm strength, but he seems to have enough to get the ball where it needs to be, and has shown great awareness. Carr has flashed these abilities but has also made some big mental mistakes in the preseason too, mostly in the red zone. I dont think there's much of a contest there right now, though I definitely would prefer Carr long run due to his arm strength. He just isn't where Teddy is yet. Its not like Teddy's WR or OL are worlds better than Carr's (arguably worse, FWIW) and he has yet to have the benefit of AP keeping defenses honest either.

[Twinkie defense]

QB rankings are not facts, they are a value judgement, based on algorithms. The thing with judging a QB on those mistakes is an outsider doesn't know if the QB mis-threw or the WR ran the wrong route or didn't make the right adjustment. I think there were two big red zone errors? You can't have those. At least one of them was Amari Cooper's error. I don't hold it against him, he's a rookie, and he's beasting. But you throw on time, to a spot, you don't wait for the receiver to come out of his break and get open, and then throw it. Stats will assign that error to Carr. And I like Bridgewater. But I'm sorry though it is a team sport, QB alone is not responsible for winning percentage - again, put Tom Brady on last season's Raiders, there are not a playoff team. Can anyone deny that?

[Twinkie defense]

And if you re-did the draft, Carr wouldn't be top 15, he would probably be top 5.

[Twinkie defense]

Here is SI's draft re-do: http://www.si.com/nfl/2015/01/20/2014-nfl-draft-redo-derek-carr-odell-beckham-jr-jadeveon-clowney

Bleacher report has Carr going #4. Fox Sports has Carr going #13.

[Quake Griffin]

Teddy had significant advantages over Carr last season.
Norv Turner and a better run game come to mind. I have this discussion with Vikings fans all the time.
It's very easy to make judgments in the offseason by comparing the two team's rushing totals (the Vikings have the Raiders by a few hundred yards) and then saying, "oh well they didn't have AP"

The Vikings had a mid-tier rushing attack last year.

The Raiders rushing attack was abysmal. The worst in football…and anybody who watched every game last year remembers how you felt knowing our 1st down runs were going for nothing. Anybody who watched the games knew defenses didn't respect our run game and didn't have to. That hurt Carr IMO and it wont show up in the stat sheet.

we wont even mention the defenses both had to work with (solely if you're going with the "Wins" argument for Bridgewater)


Cliffs:
- LOL if Bridgewater would have started 16 for the Raiders last year.

[benchmobbin02]

QB rankings are not facts, they are a value judgement, based on algorithms. The thing with judging a QB on those mistakes is an outsider doesn't know if the QB mis-threw or the WR ran the wrong route or didn't make the right adjustment. I think there were two big red zone errors? You can't have those. At least one of them was Amari Cooper's error. I don't hold it against him, he's a rookie, and he's beasting. But you throw on time, to a spot, you don't wait for the receiver to come out of his break and get open, and then throw it. Stats will assign that error to Carr. And I like Bridgewater. But I'm sorry though it is a team sport, QB alone is not responsible for winning percentage - again, put Tom Brady on last season's Raiders, there are not a playoff team. Can anyone deny that?

Your right, QB ranks or ratings aren't fact. But they are the way the vast majority of NFL followers rate players. Sorry but you won't win this argument because I'm stating from multiply rating and ranking systems all used by 95% of the people that care and you're stating from your own perspective.

And I was talking about redrafting all the QB's in the whole league and I said that he would be in the top 15 haha.

Quake has it right. HE IS NOT A TOP 15 QB IN THE LEAGUE! But if you were redrafting this year he would be in the top 15.

Still doesn't put him in the top 15 QBs because drafting takes into consideration potential and team fit and ratings don't (some ranking systems do and Carr sees his stock rise in those but not to the top 15.)

[FNQ]

Teddy had significant advantages over Carr last season.
Norv Turner and a better run game come to mind. I have this discussion with Vikings fans all the time.
It's very easy to make judgments in the offseason by comparing the two team's rushing totals (the Vikings have the Raiders by a few hundred yards) and then saying, "oh well they didn't have AP"

The Vikings had a mid-tier rushing attack last year.

The Raiders rushing attack was abysmal. The worst in football…and anybody who watched every game last year remembers how you felt knowing our 1st down runs were going for nothing. Anybody who watched the games knew defenses didn't respect our run game and didn't have to. That hurt Carr IMO and it wont show up in the stat sheet.

we wont even mention the defenses both had to work with (solely if you're going with the "Wins" argument for Bridgewater)


Cliffs:
- LOL if Bridgewater would have started 16 for the Raiders last year.

I'm not basing it off stats or last year or anything.. I've seen a lot of Carr and all of preseason Bridgewater. The guy is pinpoint accurate right now. Long-term, I believe Carr's accuracy and decision making improves and his natural arm talent makes him the better option. But if I want to win right now, give me Teddy's less strong but more accurate arm.

That ball he dropped right over Hayden's shoulder was a work of art

[Quake Griffin]

Teddy had significant advantages over Carr last season.
Norv Turner and a better run game come to mind. I have this discussion with Vikings fans all the time.
It's very easy to make judgments in the offseason by comparing the two team's rushing totals (the Vikings have the Raiders by a few hundred yards) and then saying, "oh well they didn't have AP"

The Vikings had a mid-tier rushing attack last year.

The Raiders rushing attack was abysmal. The worst in football…and anybody who watched every game last year remembers how you felt knowing our 1st down runs were going for nothing. Anybody who watched the games knew defenses didn't respect our run game and didn't have to. That hurt Carr IMO and it wont show up in the stat sheet.

we wont even mention the defenses both had to work with (solely if you're going with the "Wins" argument for Bridgewater)


Cliffs:
- LOL if Bridgewater would have started 16 for the Raiders last year.

I'm not basing it off stats or last year or anything.. I've seen a lot of Carr and all of preseason Bridgewater. The guy is pinpoint accurate right now. Long-term, I believe Carr's accuracy and decision making improves and his natural arm talent makes him the better option. But if I want to win right now, give me Teddy's less strong but more accurate arm.

That ball he dropped right over Hayden's shoulder was a work of art

I do give Teddy the step NOW. Mostly because I don't believe in making cases for somebody out of what he didn't have. Carr will have more than enough time to prove himself over Teddy and I think he will.

But I was taking issue with acting like Teddy's situation was somewhere close to Carr's because his situation was less than desirable.

Teddy's situation was less than ideal. Carr's situation = something I wouldn't wish on my worst enemy. I'm with Twink on that end. Tom Brady wouldn't have done **** with the roster we had last year.

I believe in Carr. I think he's a great leader. I know his brother probably points out every mistake he makes and he'll work to fix them. I don't have any problem admitting someone has a step on him at this point in the game.