State of the Union. Team Canada Basketball. (FIBA Americas Aug.31-Sep.15)

[Mad Prophet]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_FIBA_World_Olympic_Qualifying_Tournament_for_Men

On the other hand. So far if the top three teams advance in this tournament, it looks like Canada should be cruising again based on the teamsthat have already qualified for the qualifying tournament. We'll see about the European teams that still need to qualify.

I wouldn't be so confident. If we assume Spain and Serbia make the Euro final, then you'll still have teams like France, Greece, Croatia, Lithuania and Turkey in the qualifier. Three wildcard teams will also be picked, so I'd expect all of these teams including Russia to be there. Very experienced teams who have played together for years.

[frumble]

The Olympics are August 6th-21st, so this tournament likely takes place in July.

I have no idea if the three tournaments are just 6 game round robins or if there is a round robin, then some sort of knockout phase. That is a pretty big commitment from players.

I can't imagine any draft eligible player wanting to commit for that long. If contract talks drag on for any players they won't be available either.

Per the FIBA site, the tournaments will be held July 5-10. So a six-team tournament held over six days. Not enough time for a full round robin and then a finals. So perhaps a full round robin (5 games over 6 days) with no playoffs.

Just our luck - when we are the most talented team the tournament has a sudden death playoff leaving us susceptible to an upset, and when we will not be the most talented team and have to rely on an upset the format will likely be round robin only.

I mentioned this a bit earlier, but next year we will be essentially left with the same team. Murray, Wiltijer, XRM will most likely be out and focusing on the draft or school. If Tristan gets the qualifying offer this year, he won't be risking injury next summer and be in the same situation he is now, so he's out. Tyler Ennis will definitely be on the boat and Phil Scrubb will be fighting for the 3rd point guard spot with Hanlan again. Other guys to consider are Khem Birch and Trey Lyles. I see Aaron Dornekamp/Rob Sacre not making the team next summer. Nicholson is a big question mark as well.

PG: Joseph, Ennis, Scrubb/Hanlan
SG: Stauskas, Heslip/Rautins?
SF: Wiggins, Ejim
PF: Bennett, Powell, Lyles/Nicholson
C: Olynyk, Birch

You can put Wiggins at the 2, with our bigs being very versatile, I can definitely see a guy like Dwight Powell play the 3, most people don't know but he really has a nice enough offensive arsenal and quickness to play the 3.

With the last-chance tourney being July 5-10, the contract situation will be unsettled for a lot of guys. I believe Nicholson, Thompson, and Bennett will all likely be free agents at that time. Perhaps Ejim and Powell as well.

Lyles will likely be in Summer League. Murray as well (I know he is not on your list, but a lot of people are hoping). And perhaps Hanlan.

Moreover, players are going to be reluctant to commit to two tournaments in the same summer, and teams are going to be reluctant to grant permission for two tournaments in one summer.

It is quite possible that a lot of our NBA guys will take a pass in July.


As I mentioned earlier, the European teams have dominated the last-chance tournaments. Since they resurrected the last-chance tournament in 2008, European teams have won 5 of the 6 spots awarded, have gone 23-5 against non-European teams, and have gone 12-2 against teams from the Americas.

If the 18 teams are allocated on a regional basis, with the 5 European teams concentrated in 1 or 2 of the tournaments, the tournament(s) with no European teams will be wide open. But if the European teams are spread out across all 3 tournaments, I suspect they will take all 3 spots.

The rest of the competition will be manageable: New Zealand, Angola, Tunisia, Senegal, Mexico, and Puerto Rico are in. The Asian teams will likely be 3 out of China, Iran, the Philippines, Lebanon, or Korea).

The 3 hosts are of course unknown, and let's hope they are non-European.



Lastly, re to what extent we can attribute the failure to coaching, in a tournament like this luck can play a very large role. The best we can hope for is that the team be in the possible position to win. Going into a tournament like this with only 4 guards is not being in the best possible position. When one of them comes down with food poisoning and is hospitalized the day before the semifinal, you are in a tough position. We went into that game with Joseph, Scrubb, and Heslip as our only 3 healthy guards. I am not saying Hanlan (or Anderson or English) would have played over an ailing Stauskas, but it would have been nice to have had the option.

[Jstock12]

Now Canada has to pray for luck in the draw, Greece, Spain, Italy, Lithuania and Croatia are the probable teams from Europe in the qualification tournaments, Spain and Greece are the two that Canada won't have a much of a chance against.

One other thing to consider when making assumptions based on this 2015 Eurobasket - quite a lot of teams are either underperforming or don't have some of their main guys. So they might be much better in that qualifying tournament.

Just to name a few notable ones:

France
J. Noah - personal reasons
A.Ajinca - injury
A.Diot - injury
T.Heurtel - other

Spain
M.Gasol - personal
R.Rubio - injury
J.M.Calderon - injury
J.C.Navarro - injury
S.Ibaka - coach decision/2nd naturalized player
A.Abrines - injury

Serbia
B.Marjanovic - injury (?)/NBA club forbidden to play

Turkey
E.Kanter - coach decision
O.Asik - injury
E.Preldzic - injury

Slovenia
G.Dragic - personal

Lithuania
D.Motiejunas - injury
L.Kleiza - injury
M.Pocius - personal/recovering
D.Lavrinovic - personal/recovering

[Patman]

5 of theses 8 experienced Euro teams will be at the Olympic qualifying tournament next year: Spain, France, Serbia,Greece,Lithuania, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia. The chances of a top 3 finish are slim.

Slovenia is out

So doesn't that mean they'll be in the Olympic qualifiers?

[Jstock12]

5 of theses 8 experienced Euro teams will be at the Olympic qualifying tournament next year: Spain, France, Serbia,Greece,Lithuania, Italy, Croatia, Slovenia. The chances of a top 3 finish are slim.

Slovenia is out

So doesn't that mean they'll be in the Olympic qualifiers?

They just lost to Latvia and didn't make the quarter-finals. Latvia could take their place. Maybe Porzingis will represent them as well next year.

[Mad Prophet]

Slovenia would have to be picked as a wildcard, but I wouldn't be concerned with them. The team is very young, many of the vets are moving on.

[Patman]

Slovenia would have to be picked as a wildcard, but I wouldn't be concerned with them. The team is very young, many of the vets are moving on.

If the Dragic's are playing, they will still be tough to beat. Goran can destroy us by himself.

[Mad Prophet]

Slovenia would have to be picked as a wildcard, but I wouldn't be concerned with them. The team is very young, many of the vets are moving on.

If the Dragic's are playing, they will still be tough to beat. Goran can destroy us by himself.

But up front they're weak. Lorbek is gone. When Slokar is a starter, you're in trouble.

[Patman]

Slovenia would have to be picked as a wildcard, but I wouldn't be concerned with them. The team is very young, many of the vets are moving on.

If the Dragic's are playing, they will still be tough to beat. Goran can destroy us by himself.

But up front they're weak. Lorbek is gone. When Slokar is a starter, you're in trouble.

Look at what prime Arroyo and Ayuso did for PR. You don't need to be good everywhere.

[Mad Prophet]

I doubt Slovenia gets picked anyway. There's many other better teams to pick from.

[tout court]

First off, Dave Smart, if you, as defensive coordinator, were responsible for those substitution patterns at game's end then bleep you. This ain't the CIS.

Secondly, oh dear Jay, I remember that commercial from so many years ago from Raptors' TV where you are in a meeting room in your capacity as head coach and a powerpoint slide of the Larry O'Brien trophy flashes and you mumble into your chest about this is why we are here or this is why we play. It told me then that you were not a leader of men then and you are not now.

Lastly, Olivier my friend, whether you were in Gatineau last night or Vilnius or wherever you were, may you have secretly derived just a bit of internal joy at last night's outcome for the unfair shake you got. Many on this board said you never know when you'll need a third point guard for a variety of reasons and circumstances instead of carrying seven power forwards. Well on a night when Joseph was in foul trouble, Scrubb wet the bed and Stauskas allegedly had food poisoning it might have been nice to have another option.

P.S. I watched Steve Nash lead a team with Keith Vassell, Shaun Swords, Jordie McTavish (sic?), etc to an Olympic bid yesterday and then I watched last night's disgrace. There have been too many years of Phil Ohl, Titus Channer, Tyler Kepkay, and the list goes on and on and on of the garbage that Canada Basketball has fielded, but this really has to be the saddest of sad moments.

[jonny three time]

Scrubb and Doornekamp go 2 for 3 from the field, get 4 assists and commit one turnover and one foul combined and they get blamed for the loss? That's beyond stupid, it's like blaming Hansbrough and James Johnson for the Raptors losing to the Wizards the way they did.

Wiggins, Joseph and Bennett go 5 for 21 combined. Commit more turnovers than assists (7 to 6). Got to the line 3 times combined and generally looked scared and unaware all game. Our two former first overall picks and the 30 million dollar man show up like that and two bench guys who are meant to be glue guys get the blame? The agendas of some of you cause you to completely miss what's going on. It's pathetic.

People can blame Olynyk for his turnovers, but with a line like that you expect at least 4 turnovers, so a couple more weren't what broke the bank. 4 of our 5 starters were sick or just choked. It happens with a young team but don't ignore that that's what happened.

Maybe Triano isn't the right coach. Maybe a 5th guard would've helped (I think Hanlan is overrated though, his slashing combo guard game is suited for NBA and he never even got a sniff, choked in the summer league too)

The only positive or spin to put on it, is we have three players who weren't there, who could remedy what was missing. Murray and Ennis are both guys who can creat for others off the dribble, something this team was desperately lacking from perimeter players especially with our talented scoring bigs. TT would give us an inside presence on D and the boards that none of KO, AB, AN or DP brings. In this game alone, despite our athletic advantage we only had one more offensive rebound than they did. When you have a team full of NBA talent against a team of Non NBA talent you should be killing them on the boards. That's the one area you should dominate.

Experience for our young stars, with a quality defensive banger in the paint and better creators on the perimeter, on paper anyway, that team should be good. Hopefully Wiggins and Bennett have it in them to develop into lead dogs who can step up, as they are the two guys with a talent level the others don't have. We can't keep asking Olynyk to be superman everytime games start to really matter.

[Dr Comeback]

Dornekamp was the only one playing defense. cant get mad at him.

[jonny three time]

Dornekamp was the only one playing defense. cant get mad at him.

On top of that, everyone's saviour at the backup SF spot, Ejim (he still plays like a PF from what I see, but he's for sure athletic enough to switch if he develops himself into a SF) he goes 1 for 4 from the field and racks up 4 fouls in 9 minutes. That's only a foul every 2:15 of playing time. Let's not point to him though.

[Reg00]

Scrubb and Doornekamp go 2 for 3 from the field, get 4 assists and commit one turnover and one foul combined and they get blamed for the loss? That's beyond stupid, it's like blaming Hansbrough and James Johnson for the Raptors losing to the Wizards the way they did.

Wiggins, Joseph and Bennett go 5 for 21 combined. Commit more turnovers than assists (7 to 6). Got to the line 3 times combined and generally looked scared and unaware all game. Our two former first overall picks and the 30 million dollar man show up like that and two bench guys who are meant to be glue guys get the blame? The agendas of some of you cause you to completely miss what's going on. It's pathetic.

People can blame Olynyk for his turnovers, but with a line like that you expect at least 4 turnovers, so a couple more weren't what broke the bank. 4 of our 5 starters were sick or just choked. It happens with a young team but don't ignore that that's what happened.

Maybe Triano isn't the right coach. Maybe a 5th guard would've helped (I think Hanlan is overrated though, his slashing combo guard game is suited for NBA and he never even got a sniff, choked in the summer league too)

The only positive or spin to put on it, is we have three players who weren't there, who could remedy what was missing. Murray and Ennis are both guys who can creat for others off the dribble, something this team was desperately lacking from perimeter players especially with our talented scoring bigs. TT would give us an inside presence on D and the boards that none of KO, AB, AN or DP brings. In this game alone, despite our athletic advantage we only had one more offensive rebound than they did. When you have a team full of NBA talent against a team of Non NBA talent you should be killing them on the boards. That's the one area you should dominate.

Experience for our young stars, with a quality defensive banger in the paint and better creators on the perimeter, on paper anyway, that team should be good. Hopefully Wiggins and Bennett have it in them to develop into lead dogs who can step up, as they are the two guys with a talent level the others don't have. We can't keep asking Olynyk to be superman everytime games start to really matter.

Solid thoughts, good post.

Honestly, giving Kelly some bench time might have helped him with decision making.

[Randle McMurphy]

Dornekamp for Wiggins.

[_eagle]

Having had a night to sleep on it, there's still a bit of bitterness, but I think we still have a solid shot at the Olympics. I wonder if Canada Basketball will put in a bid to host their group.

Also, why doesn't Australia / New Zealand play in the Asian championship. The Aussies basically have a free ride into every major tournament. A flight from Sydney to Tokyo is less than a flight from Johannesburg to Tunisia.

[Potential]

This is why Canada and basketball doesn't work together

[Potential]

Joseph
Murray
Wiggins
Bennett
Thompson

[aw8]

Canada Basketball
DESTROY ALL EXPECTATIONS