TRUTH, now we know...

[FNQ]

It's 2nd down, you can either run on 2nd or 3rd down, but there's not time to run on both and get a 4th down play. And if you throw on 2nd you can choose whether run or throw 3rd. The only way it matters is if you throw an interception, which probably wasn't a whole lot more likely than Lynch fumbling the ball.

But also a whole lot less likely to get the score they needed. Don't think its a stretch to say that running Marshawn twice trying to get 1 yard is a better option than anything else. You give the ball to your star there. So if people are actually defending Bevell for making the call, I'd say the outrage, satire, and overall *wtf* by pretty much all football fans not in Boston is a good enough response. He blew that one call. It doesn't make him a terrible OC, but he blew it on the biggest stage.

I believe the success rate I heard in those situations for Lynch was 53% for the season. Russell Wilson's completion percentage for 2014 was 63%. There are obviously a bazillion other variables, but given these base percentages, one would surmise that you have a ten percent better chance of scoring on a pass play than a run. The only reason it was a dumb call was because it didn't work. Nobody gets outraged over dumb calls that end up working anyway.

That's a totally unfair comparison of %s.

If you want to make it equal, you'd say how many times a Lynch carry got at least 1 yard vs Wilson's completion %. To qualify Lynch's needing 1 yard % and compare it to Wilson's overall completion % is disingenuous. It was a dumb call because it was a dumb call - a slant in traffic to a roster fodder WR.

[FNQ]

The problem wasn't that they called a pass in general. The problem is that the specific pass play they called was very poorly suited for the situation. If they had just gone for the standard, safe, back of the endzone, either-a-TD-or-an-incompletion type play, then it's a free play. You take your shot, then buckle down and run Lynch twice. Two Lynch runs and a safe back of the endzone pass have better odds cumulatively than just two Lynch runs.

That's fair. Running an outside boot and looking in the corner is a fine 2nd down play and you still get your star RB the carries. But considering how Lynch was running that day, it looked pretty obvious that if you give the guy a carry, you get in. The actual play that was called was terrible

[RavenMad31]

But also a whole lot less likely to get the score they needed. Don't think its a stretch to say that running Marshawn twice trying to get 1 yard is a better option than anything else. You give the ball to your star there. So if people are actually defending Bevell for making the call, I'd say the outrage, satire, and overall *wtf* by pretty much all football fans not in Boston is a good enough response. He blew that one call. It doesn't make him a terrible OC, but he blew it on the biggest stage.

I believe the success rate I heard in those situations for Lynch was 53% for the season. Russell Wilson's completion percentage for 2014 was 63%. There are obviously a bazillion other variables, but given these base percentages, one would surmise that you have a ten percent better chance of scoring on a pass play than a run. The only reason it was a dumb call was because it didn't work. Nobody gets outraged over dumb calls that end up working anyway.

That's a totally unfair comparison of %s.

If you want to make it equal, you'd say how many times a Lynch carry got at least 1 yard vs Wilson's completion %. To qualify Lynch's needing 1 yard % and compare it to Wilson's overall completion % is disingenuous. It was a dumb call because it was a dumb call - a slant in traffic to a roster fodder WR.

Hahaha. "roster fodder WR". Fair enough. Like I said, a bazillion other variables. Point being, if it had worked, the OC wouldn't have been called out for the "dumb call", it would have been hailed as a "gutsy call" and "a pinpoint pass by Russell Wilson". At worst, there may have been a reference to a "strange call in that situation".

[El Turco]

But also a whole lot less likely to get the score they needed. Don't think its a stretch to say that running Marshawn twice trying to get 1 yard is a better option than anything else. You give the ball to your star there. So if people are actually defending Bevell for making the call, I'd say the outrage, satire, and overall *wtf* by pretty much all football fans not in Boston is a good enough response. He blew that one call. It doesn't make him a terrible OC, but he blew it on the biggest stage.

I believe the success rate I heard in those situations for Lynch was 53% for the season. Russell Wilson's completion percentage for 2014 was 63%. There are obviously a bazillion other variables, but given these base percentages, one would surmise that you have a ten percent better chance of scoring on a pass play than a run. The only reason it was a dumb call was because it didn't work. Nobody gets outraged over dumb calls that end up working anyway.

That's a totally unfair comparison of %s.

If you want to make it equal, you'd say how many times a Lynch carry got at least 1 yard vs Wilson's completion %. To qualify Lynch's needing 1 yard % and compare it to Wilson's overall completion % is disingenuous. It was a dumb call because it was a dumb call - a slant in traffic to a roster fodder WR.

i dont think this is a correct way to look at it. it is much easier to gain a yard when defenses don't stack the box like they do in goal line situation, so it wouldnt be accurate to compare this to lynch's 1 yard percentage.

[FNQ]

Neither way would be.. Point being that using completion % as a barometer is just as flawed because neither takes account for the situation

[FNQ]

I believe the success rate I heard in those situations for Lynch was 53% for the season. Russell Wilson's completion percentage for 2014 was 63%. There are obviously a bazillion other variables, but given these base percentages, one would surmise that you have a ten percent better chance of scoring on a pass play than a run. The only reason it was a dumb call was because it didn't work. Nobody gets outraged over dumb calls that end up working anyway.

That's a totally unfair comparison of %s.

If you want to make it equal, you'd say how many times a Lynch carry got at least 1 yard vs Wilson's completion %. To qualify Lynch's needing 1 yard % and compare it to Wilson's overall completion % is disingenuous. It was a dumb call because it was a dumb call - a slant in traffic to a roster fodder WR.

Hahaha. "roster fodder WR". Fair enough. Like I said, a bazillion other variables. Point being, if it had worked, the OC wouldn't have been called out for the "dumb call", it would have been hailed as a "gutsy call" and "a pinpoint pass by Russell Wilson". At worst, there may have been a reference to a "strange call in that situation".

I agree with your overall point.. Its just like KC-DEN finish. If Charles breaks one to put them in FG range, genius call. But since he fumbled, its WTF REID?!?

[Bulltalk]

As a Seahawk fan in Seattle, this has been dissected to death. These are the facts:

1) Bevell made the call, but Pete Carroll on the headset listening to it could have vetoed it, but didn't
2) It was called because of the particular defensive players/formation that the Patriots employed

This reality remains: It was a horrible call.

1) New England had one of the weaker defenses against the run near the goal line
2) Should have run Lynch with a timeout remaining
3) If you didn't run Lynch, the pass play they called was terrible given the situation
4) They had a 5'10 and 5/8 inch QB throwing a pass in-between/over huge offensive/defensive linemen...
5) ...into the center of the action where any number of things could go wrong...
6) ...to the #6 receiver on the depth chart...
7) ...on a play that depended upon the other wideout running a "pick play" against one of the tallest/strongest CB's in the league...
8)...when you could have run a fake/read-option to Lynch...
9) ...rolled out Wilson with a run or pass or throw it away option...
10) ...or thrown a low-interception-percentage pass to a taller receiver or TE...
11)... and if incomplete still had the option to run Lynch or pass on the next two play attempts

Worst call in SB history given the magnitude of the moment. They got far too clever and attempted a risky play when there was little or no need to do so. I'm still sick to my stomach over it when I think about it. I still feel we gave the SB away. Ouch!

But in the end, no one feels worse about it than Bevell and Carroll. My only disgruntlement is that they seem to refuse to admit that it was a poor choice. But what do you expect from them? And what are you gonna do about it?

I remember watching the play. My whole being screamed "NO! NO! NO!" It was "why THAT?" Immediately. Even if it had been successful, I thought to myself, I would have been "YEAH! we won the SB." But a part of me would have been "we dodged a bullet, and why that play?"

Ugh.

[RavenMad31]

That's a totally unfair comparison of %s.

If you want to make it equal, you'd say how many times a Lynch carry got at least 1 yard vs Wilson's completion %. To qualify Lynch's needing 1 yard % and compare it to Wilson's overall completion % is disingenuous. It was a dumb call because it was a dumb call - a slant in traffic to a roster fodder WR.

Hahaha. "roster fodder WR". Fair enough. Like I said, a bazillion other variables. Point being, if it had worked, the OC wouldn't have been called out for the "dumb call", it would have been hailed as a "gutsy call" and "a pinpoint pass by Russell Wilson". At worst, there may have been a reference to a "strange call in that situation".

I agree with your overall point.. Its just like KC-DEN finish. If Charles breaks one to put them in FG range, genius call. But since he fumbled, its WTF REID?!?

Exactly, even though in that specific case, it is a classic situation where a coach is playing not to lose, being totally gutless, but doesn't want to appear totally gutless, so instead of calling for the QB to take a knee, he hedges his bets that he either runs out the clock or Charles busts one, which, if in don't fumble mode against a stacked line, he isn't going to do. What Reid should have done if he actually had thoughts of winning in regulation was to run play action from that formation when it looked apparent that the Chiefs were just lining up to go through the motions of running out the clock. Of course, that's just splitting hairs over minor strategical preferences. Charles is a complete idiot for fumbling there.