Post#52 » by trex_8063 » Wed Sep 23, 2015 11:44 pm
1st ballot: David Robinson '96
I'm actually changing up and going with '96 as Robinson's peak; reasons why to follow.....
I'm of the opinion that Robinson is arguably the greatest defender of his generation: he was an elite-level (in Olajuwon territory) shot-blocker/rim-protector (4.6 blk/100 poss, and who knows how many other shots changed), with a near Russell-esque knack for keeping the ball in play; he was excellent at playing the passing lanes, excellent on guarding the pnr, fairly capable if caught on a switch......he did it all.
His defense come playoff time was called into question, with some suggestion that the Spurs under-performed defensively during his prime/peak years ('93-'96). However I scrutinized the data (see post #53 of last #9 thread), and as far as team defense is concerned, they actually [at least marginally] EXCEEDED expectation. Specifically in '96---which I am now going with as his peak---the team DRtg exceeded expectation by -7.4 in the first round, fell short of expectation by +4.8 in the 2nd round.
His rs numbers in '96 are fairly comparable to '95: 29.4 PER, .290 WS/48, +9.2 BPM, 120 ORtg/96 DRtg (+24) in 36.8 mpg.
And wrt Robinson's drops in offensive production and efficiency in the playoffs: well, it was relatively minimal this year. In '96, he actually had the best playoff PER in the league (29.1, even better than Michael Jordan) and the 4th-best playoff WS/48.
wrt to impact on team performance and pt differential.....
Well, according to colts18's RAPM data for the year, he had the 2nd-best RAPM in the league (behind only Michael Jordan).
The team offense slipped slightly from +3.4 (5th of 27) in '95, to +2.6 (9th of 29) in '96; however, the defense (despite losing Rodman) improved from -2.9 (5th of 27) to -4.1 (3rd of 29), with a supporting cast of Sean Elliott, Avery Johnson, Vinny Del Negro, Chuck Person, Will Perdue, and 34-yr-old Doc Rivers. Robinson is clearly, imo, the primary driving force of this semi-elite defense; and this isn't an overly impressive offensive supporting cast either.
2nd ballot: Larry Bird '88
The GOAT off-ball scorer outside of Kevin Durant, imo, who could work the post, curl off screens in the mid-range, spread the floor, score in transition, etc. In the conversation for GOAT all-around shooter, proficient with either hand from <6-8 feet, probably one of the all-time great converters of "circus shots", too. Add to that he's arguably the GOAT passing SF (Lebron's the only competitor in this category), one of the best rebounding SF's, and an underrated defender.
As to which year I think is his peak......yeah, I'm gonna go against the grain and say '88. Each of the '86-'88 has a good case. '86 is probably his weakest rs of the three, but it's the BEST playoff run of the three. '87 is at least marginally better than '86 in rs, but then clearly a bit worse in the post-season. And fwiw, I believe there's a very good chance that the '87 Celtics were just a non-hobbled McHale away from repeating as champs.
But in '88......
He sported the highest usage of his career (30.2%); in per 100 possessions he went for (I'll bold those factors that are the best of his career): 37.6 pts @ 60.8% TS (+7.00% rTS), 11.6 reb, 7.7 ast, 2.1 stl, 0.9 blk, only 3.5 tov; PER 27.8, .243 WS/48, +8.8 BPM, 121 ORtg/106 DRtg (+15) in 39.0 mpg.
His playoff run in '88, though clearly less than '86, is more or less equal in quality as '87. I'd also note that in '88 he faced a -1.6 rDRTG team in the first round, -0.4 rDRTG team in the 2nd, and a -2.7 rDRTG team in the ECF (where part of the time he was being guarded by a young Dennis Rodman).
And then there's his apparent impact in '88, which is where this year gets really intriguing.....
The 2nd offensive option was a post-injury McHale (he never had the same mobility after his late '87 injury), third option was Danny Ainge, fourth was a 34-year-old Parish. Bird led this to a 115.4 ORtg (+7.4 rORTG: tied with the '87 Lakers---and a couple other teams---as the 6th best offense in league history). And as someone mentioned: that's with McHale missing 18 games--->they actually had a 117.1 ORtg (+9.1 rORtg) in the games McHale played in.....that would be the best raw ORtg in history, and I think the best rORtg in history, too.
His with/without figures look utterly remarkable:
55-21 (.724) record with him, 2-4 (.333) record without him
+7.14 SRS with him, -6.35 SRS without him (+13.48 SRS change)
114.4 ppg with him, 103.2 ppg without him (+11.2 ppg with him)
107.25 opponent ppg with him, 112.8 opponent ppg without him (-5.6 opponent ppg with him)
Overall shift in pt differential: +16.8 with him
Now it should be noted that McHale was also out in 5 of those 6 games (they were 2-3 in those five games where both of them were out). HOWEVER, also note that the Celtics went 12-6 overall without McHale. So in the 13 games where McHale was out, but Bird was still around, they went 10-3 (.769).
And in the ONE game where Bird was out but McHale was playing, they suffered a 27 pts loss (133-106), -19.98 SRS performance (that's counting HCA as worth 3 pts, btw).
In short: it doesn't exactly appear like McHale's absence was felt anywhere near as acutely as Bird's. In fact, it appears that as long as Bird was around they were doing just fine.
I realize his defense may not have been quite as good in '88 as it was in earlier years (though still averaging 2.1 stl and 0.9 blk per 100 possessions, and elite-level defensive rebounding, fwiw). But I feel like this may have been his offensive peak: his best scoring season, and he really seemed to put his talents to the highest degree of impact, wherein he took this aging/declining/injured cast to near GOAT-level team offense.
3rd ballot: Bill Walton '77
I went back and forth and back and forth on who to pick for my third ballot. It was mostly between Walton and Dr. J (whom I'm a little higher on after discussions with Quotatious (see thread #9, I think it was)).
But I'm going with Walton; majority of my evaluation of him can be seen in post #4 of this thread. His impact cannot be denied, and as per my evaluation on the aforementioned post, consider him a near-wash with Robinson (my #1 ballot) for on-court quality of play.
The biggest dividing line between him and Robinson is durability and minutes. Whereas (as per my later debate with The-Power) Stephen Curry probably cannot be as criticized or held accountable for low minutes (because it's a circumstance in part dictated by how often they're blowing out opponents, as well as indicators that he can manage higher minutes effectively), Walton's minutes are limited generally for durability concerns. Presumably if they didn't let him come off, he was going to break down (more so), and perhaps miss even more games (already missing 20% of the rs) and/or be partially hobbled when the playoffs roll around.
While the Blazers managed to get it done despite his durability short-comings, that's a factor that would damage many other potential team scenarios, and basically take them out of contention.
Nonetheless, when this is the biggest divider between him and my #1 ballot, makes me feel like I should throw him a vote.
Erving is a super-close HM, though. Wade (and Moses) also received some consideration.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
