Cola v Smoak

bluerap23 · Post #1 » by **bluerap23** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:51 am

Maybe an unfair night to pick on Smoak, but I'm just wondering if anyone can post some defensive statistics to offer a comparison? I get that Smoak is a better defender, but Cola has a 996 fielding pct when playing 1st (can't find a breakdown of dwar for his different positions). I just don't see that the difference is that big. Really think we need Cola's offence, at least until Tulo is back.

lobosloboslobos · Post #2 » by **lobosloboslobos** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:02 am

.324 in 300+ at bats smh

Natural11 · Post #3 » by **Natural11** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:13 am

Gibbons is high on defense, but I agree, I don't think the defensive improvement outweighs the loss at the plate. Does Cola turn that double play tonight? Maybe, maybe not. But factor in all of the blown ABs from Smoak and there's no way it comes close to making up the difference. It's not like Cola has been terrible at first. He's gotten the job done.

bluerap23 · Post #4 » by **bluerap23** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:28 am

lobosloboslobos wrote:.324 in 300+ at bats smh

+890 OPS

Numbers extrapolated over full season 160+ hits, 30+ doubles, 25+ hrs, 90+ rbis!

Sticks · Post #5 » by **Sticks** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 2:38 am

Colabello >>>>> smoak
I don't know what gibbons is thinking :banghead:

I haven't seen pristine defence from smoak at first and at the same time I have not seen colabello have any egregious defensive lapses.

What is gibbons seeing in smoak that justifies the huge drop in offense when going from cola to smoak

Indiana Jones · Post #6 » by **Indiana Jones** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 3:05 am

Smoak has no business playing every day. He's a late game defensive replacement, and that's it. Welcome to Toronto...

Raptor_Guy · Post #7 » by **Raptor_Guy** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:16 pm

Yea this needs to stop. It made sense when he first played him every day when we swept the Yankees in New York because he said he didn't want to give away outs in that ballpark. That's fair and I get that.

But when pitchers are pitching around our best hitters because they know they can pitch to a .220 hitter prone to striking out, I think it's time to get Colabello back in the lineup.

What I also don't understand is that Colabello actually has a higher average vs. righties than lefties yet he's now being used as a lefty only type hitter.

TBRunGood · Post #8 » by **TBRunGood** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:26 pm

Yea I hate this platoon the way it is right now. If anything the platoon should be Colabello plays for 3 abs then depending on the situation pinch hit or play the field.

One reason might be because Colabello has been a really good pinch hitter, so maybe Gibbons keeps that on his mind and usually will have him as the first bat off the bench.

Since Carrera and Pompey are around Colabello won't be getting any LF time so I personally think he should be starting 7-8 of these last 10 games and have smoak come in defensively near the end every game.

EastBayBoy · Post #9 » by **EastBayBoy** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 12:39 pm

Gibbons is using Smoak and Colabello fine. Colabello against leftys and the occasional start against a righty and Smoak against rightys and as a late inning defensive replacement.

IMAN5 · Post #10 » by **IMAN5** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:32 pm

#FreeColabello lets get it trending on twitter.

bluerap23 · Post #11 » by **bluerap23** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 1:47 pm

Would love to get a comparison of EE's stats when Cola follows him in the order vs. Smoak.

ldnk · Post #12 » by **ldnk** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 4:37 pm

EastBayBoy wrote:Gibbons is using Smoak and Colabello fine. Colabello against leftys and the occasional start against a righty and Smoak against rightys and as a late inning defensive replacement.

Smoak doesn't hit righties well. He's good against lefties.

Skin Blues · Post #13 » by **Skin Blues** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 4:43 pm

Smoak is significantly better on defense. I did a comparison a few weeks back, but I can't remember how many wins on defense Smoak was worth vs Colabello. It was a lot. More than the difference in offense.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #14 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 4:56 pm

Smoak is definitely better defensively than Colabello and rather see him out there most games. Haven't seen Colabello much these past few games wondering if he's nursing an injury.

Hoopstarr · Post #15 » by **Hoopstarr** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 5:03 pm

ldnk wrote:
EastBayBoy wrote:Gibbons is using Smoak and Colabello fine. Colabello against leftys and the occasional start against a righty and Smoak against rightys and as a late inning defensive replacement.

Smoak doesn't hit righties well. He's good against lefties.

Smoak is good against lefties in a 37 AB sample this year. Over his career he's worse against lefties than righties to a tune of .663 OPS and .226 BA. In his best year in 2013 he had a .548 OPS vs lefties.

CrookedJ · Post #16 » by **CrookedJ** » Thu Sep 24, 2015 5:07 pm

Generally I'm OK with it for defense.

Today is a particularly bad day to have a honest discussion about this as Smoak was this guy last night.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gndH9mhHPk0[/youtube]

Relentless88 · Post #17 » by **Relentless88** » Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:00 am

Smoak seems to have more WAR in less ABs despite the big difference in OPS. That must mean that Smoak is a much better defender than Colabello.

BigLeagueChew · Post #18 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:39 am

To answer the OP with stats just defensively.

baseball reference uses range factor

Smoak 9.26/9
Collabello 9.73/9

Fangraphs uses UZR and defensive runs saved

Smoak 1.2 + drs of 3
Cola -1.0 + drs of -17

Gibby starts either player depending on matchups of the opposing pitcher. Am not sure who he will start against Tampa's odorizzi and Archer as they both have had a bit of success against both. Usually a lefty starting means automatic start for Colabello though.

Skin Blues · Post #19 » by **Skin Blues** » Fri Sep 25, 2015 3:49 am

Well, WAR can be very misleading, especially when projecting future performance. If a guy has a very high BABIP and HR/FB% then his WAR will be great, but since those stats have low repeatability, they aren't a good indicator of future performance. Defensive WAR is also not a good predictor in small sample sizes. Smoak has been good enough defensively through his career, though, that Colabello would have to keep playing way over his head offensively to keep pace in terms of overall value. It's nice that we have both, though, and it's probably best for them to split time. Come playoff time, I want to see Smoak because I just think he's the more valuable player, and having his glove at 1B is a big boost.

bluerap23 · Post #20 » by **bluerap23** » Fri Sep 25, 2015 2:58 pm

BigLeagueChew wrote:To answer the OP with stats just defensively.

baseball reference uses range factor

Smoak 9.26/9
Collabello 9.73/9

Fangraphs uses UZR and defensive runs saved

Smoak 1.2 + drs of 3
Cola -1.0 + drs of -17

Gibby starts either player depending on matchups of the opposing pitcher. Am not sure who he will start against Tampa's odorizzi and Archer as they both have had a bit of success against both. Usually a lefty starting means automatic start for Colabello though.

Is this based on 1B only?
I read on baseball reference that Smoak's is -0.1
I assume all 1B have negative dWar because they very rarely have the opportunity to do something above average.