Peaks Project #13

[PaulieWal]

Ballot #1 - Wade 09

I think this was Wade's best season overall when you compare the offensive and defensive load he carried. The team he carried also had almost no consistency and I think was clearly one of the worst supporting casts for a star ever. I don't even need to say anything, I will just leave this here (full credit to SSB):

Spoiler:

Dwyane Wade had a stretch in 2009 like no other:

2/18/2009 - 3/14/2009 (11 G)
37.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 10.4 APG, 2.9SPG, 1.4 BPG, 55.3 FG%, 65.7% TS

Yeah this one is the hardest to top IMO.

Wade 2009, late February-March scoring streak (34.7 GameScore!?)

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G    MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TS%    ORTG   GmSc
11   41.5  38.3   6.3   10.4    3.0    1.3   .654    130    34.7

That has to be the best stretch so far. That's just an unreal 11 game stretch. I've seen Jordan and James with the most extended streaks of a 28+ game score, but this is phenomenal.

There's an 8 game run in there that looks like this

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G    MP    PTS    TRB    AST    STL    BLK    TS%    ORTG   GmSc
8    42.5  39.9   6.9   10.4    3.6    1.5   .655    131    36.9

He shoots 50% from 3, puts up an AST% of 48.7%, a USG% of 37.1%, a STL% of 4.5%, and a BLK% of 3.1%, all while putting up 40/7/10/4/2 on 66% TS no less

Here's a more detailed look at that stretch. Includes Miami's performance shifts, 4Factors, and Wade's Box lines.

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2009 Miami Heat

[spoiler]Full Season

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
89.3     108.5    108.3    0.26    0.24    0.49   +0.5     0.0    +0.6

Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
89.2     107.3    107.0    0.29   -0.14   -0.25   -1.0    -1.0    +0.1

Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

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Pace     ORTG     DRTG     MOV     SOS     SRS     Off     Def     Net
91.4     114.6    114.4    0.15    2.07    3.38   +7.5    +5.0    +2.5

Four Factors

Spoiler:

Full Season

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       50.0%      24.6%       11.6%      .212
Defense       50.1%      72.9%       14.0%      .251

Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       49.6%      24.5%       11.7%      .212
Defense       49.5%      72.9%       14.2%      .249

Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

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              eFG%       ORB/DRB%    TOV%       FT/FGA

Offense       52.0%      24.5%       11.0%      .234
Defense       53.8%      72.2%       14.4%      .267

Dwyane Wade

Spoiler:

Average and Per 75 possessions

Full Season

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.6  30.2  5.0   7.5   40.3%   3.4   11.6%   57.4% +3.0%   36.2%  115
N/A   31.6  5.3   7.8   N/A     3.6   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Non-Ball Dominant Stretch 66 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

38.0  28.8  4.9   6.9   37.8%   3.3   11.4%   55.6% +1.2%   36.5%  111.6
N/A   30.6  7.3   8.0   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

Ball Dominant Stretch February 18th - March 14th, 2009, 13 Games

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MPG   PPG   TRB   AST   AST%    TOV   TOV%    TS%   RelTS%  USG%   ORTG

41.4  37.2  5.9  10.4   50.3%   3.9   12.2%   65.7% +11.3%  36.0%  131
N/A   35.3  5.6   9.9   N/A     3.7   N/A     N/A    N/A    N/A    N/A

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Miami was able to run a +7.5 offense with Wade playing out of his mind like that.

Ballot #2 - Erving 76
Credit to Q here for driving the Erving train. I think people are being overly dismissive of the ABA and while I don't think he was ever a defensive anchor his offense was clearly what you would expect from your wing superstars and he topped in 76 with a BPM of 10.1. Winning a title that year was just the cherry on the top and he played extremely well in the playoffs as well.

Ballot #3 - CP 08

Am I crazy or did CP have even a better RS in 09? The only difference is that in 08 his playoffs were on another level too with 12.3 BPM and nearly 31 PER. His defense wasn't as good as it is today but he clearly had the feel for the game and in some ways I think he didn't play as controlled offensively as he plays now.

[thizznation]

So it's quite possible Erving's defensive impact in the ABA was bigger than in the NBA, but not because he was better, but because his defensive competition was weaker. And in such environment his athleticism was enough to make a difference on D, but in the NBA, with more bigger players, his defensive flaws were badly exposed. And that's the thing we can't ignore when we talk about 1976.

Is it also quite possible that Erving experienced a physical decline that drastically reduced his defensive impact from 1976 to 1977, just as what happened to LeBron James from 09 to 10?

That's not what actually appeared to happen, only on-off DRTG supports this theory, RAPM has Lebron on a similar level of Defensive impact in both 09 and 10
DRAPM
2009: +2.8, +2.16
2010: +2.6, +2.39

It's more likely that lineup changes are what caused the decline in on-off DRTG impact, given that in 2010, a very old Shaq (not a great defender) and JJ Hickson (also a bad defender) was starting the majority of games, while Varejao (a very good defender) and big Z (an ok defender), came on the bench, this contrasts with 09, when Varejao started more, Ben Wallace and Z started the majority of games

So line up changes that Erving experienced when he joined an entirely different team could explain for a difference in on off DRTG impact between 76 and 77?

[Quotatious]

Ballot #1 - Wade 09
Ballot #2 - Erving 76
Ballot #3 - CP or Nowitzki

Will add an explanation in a bit and decide on who gets my 3rd ballot.

How do you feel about Nowitzki vs Bryant, Curry, Durant and McGrady? I really struggle to decide how to rank them.

[mischievous]

Also as it pertains to Wade, i understand he doesn't provide the kind of spacing that Curry does, but i don't think enough weight is put into the way his agressive attacking style puts pressure on and collapses defenses. Even if Curry is a tad better offensively(i may or may not agree not really sure), it isn't a large gap like people are implying. The defensive gap is clearly bigger, and when it comes to Curry's defense people seem to sweeping under the rug that he had the best defensive squad in basketball backing him up. They won in part due to Curry's offensive brilliance but also their team defense had a whole to do with that. I think even with the offensive cast he had which was very underrated he probably should've had the #1 ranked offense if it was a top 5 or GOAT level offensive season like some claim. I have little to no doubt that Wade on the Warriors in place of Curry would've also resulted in a top 5 offense, 65-67 wins and a title. Wade wouldn't provide the same spacing but he'd still be getting his teammates open looks when he gets doubled on his drives. I think their offense would've been comparable but their d would be even stronger. Wade along with Iggy, Barnes and Klay on the perimeter would be nasty defensively. If you put Curry on the 09 heat how much would he elevate the offense when his best players are Beasley, and a part time injured past prime Jermaine Oneal and Marion who weren't great offensively even in their primes? Thats my 2 cents at least.

[lorak]

So it's quite possible Erving's defensive impact in the ABA was bigger than in the NBA, but not because he was better, but because his defensive competition was weaker. And in such environment his athleticism was enough to make a difference on D, but in the NBA, with more bigger players, his defensive flaws were badly exposed. And that's the thing we can't ignore when we talk about 1976.

Is it also quite possible that Erving experienced a physical decline that drastically reduced his defensive impact from 1976 to 1977, just as what happened to LeBron James from 09 to 10?

What psychical decline you are talking about? Erving in 1977 was still in his psychical prime, as evidenced by such plays:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_GLqsMeN60[/youtube]

BTW, he's wearing the same knee braces as during 1976 ABA finals.

Erving's production declined in 1977 not because of physical decline, but because of bad team fit, less touches. In fact in such environment (less usage on offense), he should have been focused more on defense, but that's not what happened. Really, go to youtube and watch some games from 1976 and 1977 finals and break down Julius' defense. You will see that there isn't defensive anchor like impact on D.

[PaulieWal]

Ballot #1 - Wade 09
Ballot #2 - Erving 76
Ballot #3 - CP or Nowitzki

Will add an explanation in a bit and decide on who gets my 3rd ballot.

How do you feel about Nowitzki vs Bryant, Curry, Durant and McGrady? I really struggle to decide how to rank them.

Very honestly, I think Bryant is right there. Curry, Durant, and McGrady are interesting. They too are right there but just a tiny bit behind if that makes sense. McGrady actually might be right there too.

Thing with KD is his RS was pretty amazing but in the playoffs some of that shine came off though there were extenuating circumstances. Even though generally I am forgiving of fatigue and carrying jobs around here more than most that's part of the deal as the lone superstar and that sometimes I think is not applied to guys like Wade, James, Kobe etc.

With Bryant I can never even tell what his actual peak is. Is it 06? 08? 09? 06 was a display of offensive dominance but his defense wasn't there at all. 08 and 09 I am more inclined to count as his peak since he was more consistent defensively and still a top 3-5 player both those years.

I had Curry #1 in POY this year but I also think people here give too much important to "portability" and to me it's not that important of a concept. I am not here to rank players based on their portability and I don't think Curry's offense is better than guys like peak Wade, Dirk, KD etc. Even if it is it's not big enough to make up for their defensive advantages (especially Wade or even KD who was clearly an above average defender IMO in 2014).

[thizznation]

So it's quite possible Erving's defensive impact in the ABA was bigger than in the NBA, but not because he was better, but because his defensive competition was weaker. And in such environment his athleticism was enough to make a difference on D, but in the NBA, with more bigger players, his defensive flaws were badly exposed. And that's the thing we can't ignore when we talk about 1976.

Is it also quite possible that Erving experienced a physical decline that drastically reduced his defensive impact from 1976 to 1977, just as what happened to LeBron James from 09 to 10?

What psychical decline you are talking about? Erving in 1977 was still in his psychical prime, as evidenced by such plays:

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_GLqsMeN60[/youtube]

BTW, he's wearing the same knee braces as during 1976 ABA finals.

Erving's production declined in 1977 not because of physical decline, but because of bad team fit, less touches. In fact in such environment (less usage on offense), he should have been focused more on defense, but that's not what happened. Really, go to youtube and watch some games from 1976 and 1977 finals and break down Julius' defense. You will see that there isn't defensive anchor like impact on D.[/b]

I guess we are going to have to go by the eye test that Erving was a non factor defensively and just assume the 2 blocks and 2.5 steals per game were empty stats that Erving wandered into by pure accident and a biproduct of the "ABA weak defense". But wait, if the ABA defense was the supposed weak part of the league how did Erving get all of these blocks and steals vs the ABA's offenses? I have new admiration for Erving because it seems to be that he has the emptiest stats in basketball history according to some posters here.

[theonlyclutch]

Is it also quite possible that Erving experienced a physical decline that drastically reduced his defensive impact from 1976 to 1977, just as what happened to LeBron James from 09 to 10?

That's not what actually appeared to happen, only on-off DRTG supports this theory, RAPM has Lebron on a similar level of Defensive impact in both 09 and 10
DRAPM
2009: +2.8, +2.16
2010: +2.6, +2.39

It's more likely that lineup changes are what caused the decline in on-off DRTG impact, given that in 2010, a very old Shaq (not a great defender) and JJ Hickson (also a bad defender) was starting the majority of games, while Varejao (a very good defender) and big Z (an ok defender), came on the bench, this contrasts with 09, when Varejao started more, Ben Wallace and Z started the majority of games

So line up changes that Erving experienced when he joined an entirely different team could explain for a difference in on off DRTG impact between 76 and 77?

Are there any on-off DRTG numbers for Erving in 76? On-off DRTG isn't really the whole picture anyway, given it's just been shown that it can be a noisy figure at times and affected by lineup changes, but a whole track record of Erving's mediocre on-off DRTG's numbers through his NBA stint doesn't say good things about his D at all...

[thizznation]

That's not what actually appeared to happen, only on-off DRTG supports this theory, RAPM has Lebron on a similar level of Defensive impact in both 09 and 10
DRAPM
2009: +2.8, +2.16
2010: +2.6, +2.39

It's more likely that lineup changes are what caused the decline in on-off DRTG impact, given that in 2010, a very old Shaq (not a great defender) and JJ Hickson (also a bad defender) was starting the majority of games, while Varejao (a very good defender) and big Z (an ok defender), came on the bench, this contrasts with 09, when Varejao started more, Ben Wallace and Z started the majority of games

So line up changes that Erving experienced when he joined an entirely different team could explain for a difference in on off DRTG impact between 76 and 77?

Are there any on-off DRTG numbers for Erving in 76? On-off DRTG isn't really the whole picture anyway, given it's just been shown that it can be a noisy figure at times and affected by lineup changes, but a whole track record of Erving's mediocre on-off DRTG's numbers through his NBA stint doesn't say good things about his D at all...

What? How do you say that a stat isn't the whole picture and is noisy, and then take a multi year of the years that aren't even in the peak nor prime of the player in question and then start making deductions from it? You see how this can lead to inaccurate analysis?

[The-Power]

And this kills any myth of "Wade can't shoot" that gets spread around like wildfire.

A video doesn't erase any doubts but I agree with you that shooting that much of an issue in 2009. He wasn't great, by no means, and obviously doesn't come close to the best shooters (like Dirk for instance) but respectable. It was a career-year for him in terms of efficiency outside of 10ft looking at the added numbers. But combined with volume we see that he took tons of inefficient shots from 16ft to the 3pt-line (32.8% of his attempts on 0.416 FG% which equals only 0.832 points per scoring attempt). So while I won't disregard the decent numbers we shouldn't pretend like Wade had a good jumpshot because that would be clearly false compared to most perimeter players we have to consider at this point.

Incredible about Wade in 2009 was his impact relative to his teammates. Especially the drop-off in offensive production with Wade on the bench is astounding given that no other player even comes close to a at least comparable on/off split despite the expected collinearity for some players. There is no doubt that Wade had a great impact on his poor team. Wade was never able to produce an absolute brillant on-court ORTG until LeBron arrived (although one might argue that his '06 on-court ORTG was comparable to Dirk's for example). His individual ORTG never came particularly close to the greatest offensive forces at the perimeter but it wasn't bad and we have to value his volume in this case. Wade certainly was a great offensive player who could carry a team but I would rather have Dirk's, Nash's and Curry's peak-offense among his peers, while especially Paul, Durant, Harden and Kobe are at least debatable. So to me any case for Wade has to start with revealing a defensive advantage which offsets the disadvantage - which extent is varying depending on the comparison - on offense. The difference on offense is pretty close in a couple of cases so I can see the argument for Wade in terms of peak - but to me it's definitely not a given.

I would love to read someone further elaborating on Wade vs. Dirk, Paul, Durant, Nash. I feel comfortable in ranking Curry (slightly) ahead of Wade in terms of peak, overall, but I'm well aware that this is not the opinion of the majority - though maybe it is as far as voters in this project are concerned, I don't know.

I'm still not feeling Erving yet. I know some of his advocates are thoughtful posters who might start getting frustrated - and I would understand it since I had this feeling regarding Robinson and his non-consideration for the higher spots. But I can't ignore the fact that the defensive environment was considerably less tough in the ABA compared to the NBA, and that he never approached his peak-ABA level again - of course he still had a couple of really good seasons - doesn't help his case although I know that there are some other possible reasons for the decline. But that the ABA was a less talented league in which some player's dominated like they never did in the NBA again (and Rick Barry should be the most prominent example especially since he moved from the NBA to the ABA and back) is out of question to me. The question is how much worse it was in order to rank Dr J properly. And this question is indeed a tough one. On top of that he didn't strike me as some otherworldy impact-player but I understand that my eyes alone aren't the most satisfying basis for an argument - which is why it rather works as an additional part of my stance. Robertson has a case for this spot and maybe it's just me not being knowledgeable enough - because footage is quite rare and I have difficulties in evaluating players of his era relative to other ones - but I still won't vote for him yet.

My ballots would be:

1st Ballot - 2015 Curry
After Robinson finally found his place on the list I feel the most comfortable with this choice. Reasoning especially here: http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=44681360#p44681360

2nd Ballot - 1977 Walton
Not quite as sure about this one but to me it's a decent choice and I don't see any other player who definitely has to be voted higher. Of course I can see arguments for some players, though. I explained myself about Walton very short but I don't know where it was exactly - but I didn't provided much insight anyway, some others, however, did.

3rd Ballot - 2008 Paul
Very tough. I came up with some reservations regarding Paul in the last thread, mainly that his defense didn't even come close to his later years (quite frankly, he might have been straight negative in that regard), that his overall skill-level wasn't at its highest point and that we need to be cautious to not overrate what happened in the playoffs because of the circumstances. However, it was still a great year for him and he had a tremendous impact on his team, so in my mind it's not wrong to have him here. But I could see myself choosing some other players as well and might change the vote eventually (Durant, Nash, Robertson, Dirk and Wade all have a reasonable case and I have yet to make up my mind regarding Moses and West).

[theonlyclutch]

My final ballot:

1st Ballot - 2015 Stephen Curry

Reasons here: http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1407753&p=44690462#p44690462

2nd Ballot - 1964 Oscar Robertson

Reasons here: http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1407753&p=44690462#p44690462

3rd Ballot - 1977 Bill Walton

Reason: A great flash-in-the-pan season for Walton, tremendous impact from WOWY, POR were 44-21 with him, 5-12 without, incredibly all-rounded as a center both on offense and or defense, considered taking some modern wings at this spot, but Walton's impact, at least in those two years, was undeniable..

[mischievous]

Wade was never able to produce an absolute brillant on-court ORTG until LeBron arrived (although one might argue that his '06 on-court ORTG was comparable to Dirk's for example). His individual ORTG never came particularly close to the greatest offensive forces at the perimeter but it wasn't bad and we have to value his volume in this case.

The Heat in 09 played at one of the slowest paces in the league, so i don't think it would be that reasonable to expect a 120+ ORTG from Wade. I'm not a fan of that stat anyways, it only says so much at face value.

2nd Ballot - 1977 Walton
Not quite as sure about this one but to me it's a decent choice and I don't see any other player who definitely has to be voted higher. Of course I can see arguments for some players, though. I explained myself about Walton very short but I don't know where it was exactly - but I didn't provided much insight anyway, some others, however, did.

If you are taking Curry and Paul over Wade for having better offense, then how is he also behind Walton who's offense was substantially worse? I get the defense thing, but imo, Walton wasn't even at a KG or Duncan level at offense so it's not enough imo.

3rd Ballot - 2008 Paul
Very tough. I came up with some reservations regarding Paul in the last thread, mainly that his defense didn't even come close to his later years (quite frankly, he might have been straight negative in that regard), that his overall skill-level wasn't at its highest point and that we need to be cautious to not overrate what happened in the playoffs because of the circumstances. However, it was still a great year for him and he had a tremendous impact on his team, so in my mind it's not wrong to have him here. But I could see myself choosing some other players as well and might change the vote eventually (Durant, Nash, Robertson, Dirk and Wade all have a reasonable case and I have yet to make up my mind regarding Moses and West).

I still haven't seen a reasonable case for Paul over Wade. Feel free to make one though.

[thizznation]

I'm still not feeling Erving yet. I know some of his advocates are thoughtful posters who might start getting frustrated - and I would understand it since I had this feeling regarding Robinson and his non-consideration for the higher spots. But I can't ignore the fact that the defensive environment was considerably less tough in the ABA compared to the NBA, and that he never approached his peak-ABA level again - of course he still had a couple of really good seasons - doesn't help his case although I know that there are some other possible reasons for the decline. But that the ABA was a less talented league in which some player's dominated like they never did in the NBA again (and Rick Barry should be the most prominent example especially since he moved from the NBA to the ABA and back) is out of question to me. The question is how much worse it was in order to rank Dr J properly. And this question is indeed a tough one. On top of that he didn't strike me as some otherworldy impact-player but I understand that my eyes alone aren't the most satisfying basis for an argument - which is why it rather works as an additional part of my stance. Robertson has a case for this spot and maybe it's just me not being knowledgeable enough - because footage is quite rare and I have difficulties in evaluating players of his era relative to other ones - but I still won't vote for him yet.

First off I want to say that your work has been fantastic and of professional quality. I just want to shed some light upon the context of Rick Barry and the ABA to NBA switching.

1972 Barry ABA - 31.5 PPG | 45.2 MPG |
1973 Barry NBA - 22.3 PPG | 37.5 MPG |
1974 Barry NBA - 25.1 PPG | 36.5 MPG |
1975 Barry NBA - 30.6 PPG | 40.4 MPG |

1972 Barry ABA Per 36 Mins - 25.1 points
1973 Barry NBA Per 36 Mins - 21.4 points
1974 Barry NBA Per 36 Mins - 24.8 points
1975 Barry NBA Per 36 Mins - 27.3 points


At a first glance we see a sharp drop in points from Barry's switch back to the Warriors and the NBA in 73. If we look at the per 36 min stats we can see that while he had a drop in scoring it was exacerbated by his drop in minutes as well. The next year in 1974 Rick is scoring at the exact same rate he was in the ABA. The very next year in 1975 he is scoring at a higher rate than his last ABA season. I believe the 1973 season can be explained by Barry having growing pains while adjusting to the new team.

[trex_8063]

Any takers for Durant?

I could go for some Durant. I'm honestly considering switching my 3rd ballot choice from Dr. J to Durant (though Wade and Paul and TMac and Curry also getting consideration).

I consider '14 Durant among the top 3-4 pure scorers of all-time. In addition to that he was pretty much an elite-level rebounding SF, a very good (even excellent??) play-making SF.
Obv his biggest weakness is defensively, and even there I don't consider him "bad". He was merely average overall. His length and athleticism allowed him to be effective (though not great) in passing lanes or on help D (1.7 stl and 1.0 blk per 100 possessions); his half-court man D still a touch weak, though.
But still, when I consider the above average (even elite) rebounding and play-making from the SF position combined with GOAT-candidate scorer......he can def still be a legit candidate here even with mediocre D.

This is starting to boil down to total dismissal of the ABA.

People are taking advanced metrics from the year not even in question over the concrete results of what actually happened.

Though I know you're not aiming this at me, fwiw, I'm not being dismissive of the '76 ABA. But there are some realities to deal with: the '76 ABA was a weaker league than the post-merger NBA (which encompasses the majority of the other candidates we're looking at presently)---I don't think this is even particularly debatable---and probably is not any tougher (perhaps even marginally weaker) than the NBA of the mid-60's (wrt: Oscar, West).

This is no different than the skepticism we employ when we look at George Mikan's dominance. We say "yeah, it was phenomenal, but...." Same is happening with Erving, just to a smaller degree. But that doesn't necessarily equate to bias or dismissal.

Some players thrived to a similar (or even higher) degree in the NBA as they did in the ABA. But the VAST majority of players who spanned both leagues saw their numbers take a significant dip upon joining the NBA, never again to even approach the quality of performance (relative to their peers) that they enjoyed in the ABA. I don't find that to be coincidence, nor something that can be explained away with injury or similar narratives in all cases.
Erving is among those who saw significant decline. Injury narrative aside, he still looks phenomenally athletic in the NBA (compared to the '74 and '76 footage I've seen), so I simply don't buy that as the sole reason.


And specifically wrt the Nets #1-rated defense, it's worth noting that they were only -2.4 to league average (that may not be sufficient for even top 10 status---and basically never good enough for top 5---in the modern NBA); and this in a league that didn't lend a lot of focus to defense, too.
You combine this with concerns about general strength of league, lack of indications of major defensive impact later in his career, and there's plenty of room to question or doubt whether or not peak Erving is actually a big impact (defensively) player.
***And this does NOT mean I don't think he was the biggest defensive impact player on the '76 Nets. It means I'm questioning how much value we should attach to being the biggest impact defender on the '76 Nets.

[Dr Spaceman]

Just going to chop things up in an effort to get a quick response out:

Also as it pertains to Wade, i understand he doesn't provide the kind of spacing that Curry does, but i don't think enough weight is put into the way his agressive attacking style puts pressure on and collapses defenses.

Perhaps not. It's certainly something I consider, but for me it comes down to geometry. Where does Curry draw defenders to? Where does Wade? Would you rather have defenses collapsing towards the rim or above the break?

It's the same thing with Dirk. He's uber efficient from inefficient areas of the floor, enabling his teammates to occupy those efficient spots in the interest of greater overall offensive efficacy. Curry in the 2015 playoffs was basically a built-in 4 on 3 heading downhill. I don't think there's a ceiling yet on how valuable that is, and it's something Wade doesn't come close to providing.

I think even with the offensive cast he had which was very underrated he probably should've had the #1 ranked offense if it was a top 5 or GOAT level offensive season like some claim.

We're talking about a literal difference of about 0.4 points/100 between the Warriors and the Clippers. If Curry had matched Paul's minutes, there's no doubt they'd be the #1 offense, but he was too busy winning every game by 20+

If you put Curry on the 09 heat how much would he elevate the offense when his best players are Beasley, and a part time injured past prime Jermaine Oneal and Marion who weren't great offensively even in their primes? Thats my 2 cents at least.

It is worth considering that the Warriors were worse offensively with Curry off the floor than the Heat without Wade in 2009. The Warriors were also substantially better with Curry on than the Heat with Ware.

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Julius Erving 1976
2nd ballot - Oscar Robertson 1964
2nd ballot - Bill Walton 1977

I don't have enough time to explain my votes. I'm suprised to see Paul and Curry over Oscar to be fair. I think they have a case, but people became a little biased to his era.

[Dr Spaceman]

1st ballot - Julius Erving 1976
2nd ballot - Oscar Robertson 1964
2nd ballot - Bill Walton 1977

I don't have enough time to explain my votes. I'm suprised to see Paul and Curry over Oscar to be fair. I think they have a case, but people became a little biased to his era.

If Oscar has entered the ballot for you, why not West?

[PaulieWal]

It is worth considering that the Warriors were worse offensively with Curry off the floor than the Heat without Wade in 2009. The Warriors were also substantially better with Curry on than the Heat with Ware.

And that's highly irrelevant here given the supporting casts of Heat 09 vs. GSW 15. One is a joke of a cast, the other is one of the most stacked teams of all-time.

We can't have it both ways, talking about GSW beating teams by 20, having some historic point differential and then talks about how the "Warriors" were better with Curry on than the Heat were with Wade on. Yeah, they better be or it would be weird if they weren't.

[PaulieWal]

Also as it pertains to Wade, i understand he doesn't provide the kind of spacing that Curry does, but i don't think enough weight is put into the way his agressive attacking style puts pressure on and collapses defenses. Even if Curry is a tad better offensively(i may or may not agree not really sure), it isn't a large gap like people are implying. The defensive gap is clearly bigger, and when it comes to Curry's defense people seem to sweeping under the rug that he had the best defensive squad in basketball backing him up. They won in part due to Curry's offensive brilliance but also their team defense had a whole to do with that. I think even with the offensive cast he had which was very underrated he probably should've had the #1 ranked offense if it was a top 5 or GOAT level offensive season like some claim. I have little to no doubt that Wade on the Warriors in place of Curry would've also resulted in a top 5 offense, 65-67 wins and a title. Wade wouldn't provide the same spacing but he'd still be getting his teammates open looks when he gets doubled on his drives. I think their offense would've been comparable but their d would be even stronger. Wade along with Iggy, Barnes and Klay on the perimeter would be nasty defensively. If you put Curry on the 09 heat how much would he elevate the offense when his best players are Beasley, and a part time injured past prime Jermaine Oneal and Marion who weren't great offensively even in their primes? Thats my 2 cents at least.

Wade is actually one of the best floor spacers in the game because of his movement with and without the ball. He has unprecedented gravity and he's always been one of the best cutters in the game.

No, I am not saying he has more gravity than Curry but it's good enough to the point where gravity or spacing shouldn't be an issue for peak Wade vs. Curry.

Give peak Wade another capable ball handler/play maker and he would have been even better offensively.

This is the link to the article: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11743150/nba-examining-why-defenders-play-close-dwyane-wade-3-point-line

If anybody wants a full copy feel free to PM me.

[trex_8063]

Wade was never able to produce an absolute brillant on-court ORTG until LeBron arrived (although one might argue that his '06 on-court ORTG was comparable to Dirk's for example). His individual ORTG never came particularly close to the greatest offensive forces at the perimeter but it wasn't bad and we have to value his volume in this case.

The Heat in 09 played at one of the slowest paces in the league, so i don't think it would be that reasonable to expect a 120+ ORTG from Wade. I'm not a fan of that stat anyways, it only says so much at face value.

fwiw, you're implying a relationship (high ORtg's cannot---or are unlikely---to be achieved by teams that run a slow pace) that doesn't actually exist.

Take for example the Jazz of the late-90's.....
'96: 25th of 29 in pace, 2nd of 29 in ORtg
'97: 17th of 29 in pace, 2nd of 29 in ORtg
'98: 21st of 29 in pace, *1st of 29 in ORtg (*and in terms of rORTG, this is actually the 4th-best team IN LEAGUE HISTORY, better even than any of the Showtime Lakers teams, for example)

Or the Pistons of the mid-late '00's.....
'06: 29th of 30 in pace, 4th of 30 in ORtg
'07: 30th of 30 in pace, 6th of 30 in ORtg
'08: 30th of 30 in pace, 6th of 30 in ORtg

Or some various Spurs teams....
'94: 27th of 27 in pace, 4th of 27 in ORtg
'07: 27th of 30 in pace, 5th of 30 in ORtg
'15: 17th of 30 in pace, 7th of 30 in ORtg

Or the Lebron/Wade Heat, too.....
'11: 20th of 30 in pace, 3rd of 30 in ORtg
'13: 23rd of 30 in pace, 2nd of 30 in ORtg
'14: 27th of 30 in pace, 5th of 30 in ORtg