Peaks Project #14

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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#61 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:38 pm

fpliii wrote:transition

I do think I have some potentially (somewhat) useful data on the topic to share. I have points off turnovers (both scored and allowed) going back to 86*:

http://www92.zippyshare.com/v/zejGrX5q/file.html

For 97-on, this site has data:

http://www.nbaminer.com/miscellaneous-scoring/

Now obviously this isn't a perfect measure for transition offense/defense for a few reasons:

(1) It doesn't separate live ball and dead ball turnovers (though maybe using steals by a team/opponent would make sense instead).

(2) Transition attempts don't *have to* begin with a live ball turnover, as if pace is pushed, defensive rebounds (off of missed shots or blocked shots recovered by the defense) can result in transition opportunities.

(3) stats.nba uses this definition:

Transition

When the possession-ending event comes before the defense sets following a possession change and a transition from one end of the court to the other.


though with points off turnovers, if the offense doesn't attempt a shot quickly enough and the defense sets, but ends up scoring in the half court, it would still be counted.

(4) I don't know one way or another whether points scored off free throws are counted in the points off turnovers total.

All of those qualifications aside, it could be a good starting point, and we do have fast break points for 96 (Pollack) and 97-15 (from the nbaminer.com link). We don't have the number of fast break possessions aside from I think the last couple years of synergy data on stats.nba.com (and going back to 04-05 if anybody grabbed the numbers from mysynergysports.com), but just another data point.

(* In Pollack's 96 guide he also broke down points in the paint, second chance points, and fast break points. I believe these were recorded on stat sheets going way, way back since I remember reading old Celtics' synopses referencing them, so maybe there is potential to get more of these types of numbers if those old stat sheets referenced by beat writers are someday digitalized.)
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#62 » by drza » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:44 pm

Boarding plane right now. Not sure if thread still open when I get home. Haven't gotten to participate in discussion like I want, but there's been some really good stuff. Hopefully get to engage more in the next thread or two.

1) Oscar Robertson 63
2) Julius Erving 76
3) Dirk Nowitzki 11

Have given some verbiage to the first two over the last couple of threads. I'm going Dirk for the third slot here because he's one of the biggest mismatches in NBA history and he had a very clear, very obvious huge impact for his career that spiked further in 2011.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#63 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 2:52 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
No, the line of argument is actually very simple.

Nothing in life of the NBA is "equal".

That point had nothing to do with Wade or Dirk.

Ideally you want a good defense and good offense. Wade has shown he can be a part of good enough offenses to make deep playoff runs. Easy enough to understand or it should be...

You argument does not follow logically.

If one player "can be a part of offenses that are good enough to make deep playoff runs" and the other player has been a part of offenses that were always substantially better than the first player, whose team is more likely to win the title?

If your answer is anything other than "the player who led better offenses" then we're done here for obvious reasons.

"But defense!" You say. "Teams need to be good at both!" I agree. And here I'd say: do you have any evidence that the player who led worse offenses was having a bigger effect on his team's defense than the player who led better offenses? Or do you have any evidence the player who led better offenses is hurting his defense and leading to worse team performance on that end?

If you answered no to both of those questions, then the player who led better offenses is still more likely to lead you to a title all else being equal.

Came back here to see discussion jumping again when I've been busy? You guys did this on purpose I'm sure of it.

I'll preface this by saying I'm not impartial to Wade as he is my favorite player all time. I'm not bringing up some older posts as they've been addressed even if not correctly as I would like to have but unless Curry or Dirk gets in now there's no issue.

You are right that Dirk leads better offenses most times but his supporting casts crap all over Wade's. Curry had players that couldn't get PT that would be the second best player on the 09 Heat. Seriously outside of 20 something games of JO and half a season of Marion every top 10 rotation player on the Warriors would be the best player on that Miami team. David Lee was 8th in MPG in the regular season and 10th in the postseason and he's the best player on the Celtics right now (who made the playoffs last year).

Wade and Dirk have met in the finals twice. Both times Wade put up ATG performances and completely outperformed Dirk. And not just a little bit where it was up in the air about their impact but he performed so well in 06 many call it the GOAT performance and in 11 people were saying the same prior to his injury and even then many call it the GOAT series for a finals loser outside of Jerry West.

So when you ask
do you have any evidence that the player who led worse offenses was having a bigger effect on his team's defense than the player who led better offenses? Or do you have any evidence the player who led better offenses is hurting his defense and leading to worse team performance on that end?

Dirk's supporting casts aren't just slightly better offensively but they're waaay better and building these teams around Dirk came at a cost (defense) that rendered them incapable of winning a title most years.

Wade's offensive lift is amazing. Again in 2009 he had a 110.5 on court offensive rating and in 2010 he had a 112.9. In 06 he had a 112.3. This is at the level of Dirk's bests (iirc he peaked at 115 - in 2011 he had a 113.6) and Dirk's supporting cast was miles ahead of Wade's. There's no doubt in my mind that Wade's offensive impact is at least equal to Dirk's.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#64 » by ceiling raiser » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:23 pm

Don't think I feel comfortable enough filling out a ballot here (hopefully I will soon :) ), though Dirk makes the most sense to me as a number 1 pick.

I think most are familiar with them, but here are the numbers on Dirk's post-up offense shutupandjam provided awhile back:

Spoiler:
2005:
Dirk:
Post-up Derived offense: 0.887 PPP on 222 poss
Single covered post-ups: 0.915 PPP on 177 poss
Pass outs: 1.00 PPP on 33 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.167 PPP on 12 poss

2006:
Dirk:
Post-up Derived offense: 1.012 PPP on 328 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.048 PPP on 272 poss
Pass outs: 1.000 PPP on 47 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0 PPP on 9 poss

2007:
Dirk:
Post-up Derived offense: 1.033 PPP on 300 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.036 PPP on 224 poss
Pass outs: 1.219 PPP on 64 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0 PPP on 4 poss

2008:
Dirk:
Post-up Derived offense: 1.021 PPP on 389 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.045 PPP on 308 poss
Pass outs: 1.071 PPP on 70 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0 PPP on 11 poss

2009:
Dirk:
Post-up Derived offense: 0.998 PPP on 549 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.000 PPP on 454 poss
Pass outs: 1.173 PPP on 75 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.300 PPP on 20 poss

2010:
Dirk
Post-up Derived offense: 1.061 PPP on 603 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.081 PPP on 471 poss
Pass outs: 1.139 PPP on 108 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.333 PPP on 24 poss

2011:
Dirk
Post-up Derived offense: 1.154 PPP on 494 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.170 PPP on 389 poss
Pass outs: 1.178 PPP on 90 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.600 PPP on 15 poss


2012:
Dirk
Post-up Derived offense: 0.991 PPP on 446 poss
Single covered post-ups: 0.953 PPP on 340 poss
Pass outs: 1.282 PPP on 78 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.643 PPP on 28 poss

2013:
Dirk
Post-up Derived offense: 1.069 PPP on 304 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.051 PPP on 215 poss
Pass outs: 1.221 PPP on 77 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.417 PPP on 12 poss

2014:
Dirk
Post-up Derived offense: 1.079 PPP on 682 poss
Single covered post-ups: 1.116 PPP on 490 poss
Pass outs: 1.135 PPP on 148 poss
Doubled, no pass out: 0.477 PPP on 44 poss

Absolutely insane. :o
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#65 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Sep 28, 2015 3:57 pm

E-Balla wrote:Dirk's supporting casts aren't just slightly better offensively but they're waaay better and building these teams around Dirk came at a cost (defense) that rendered them incapable of winning a title most years.


Okay, but the teams built around him from 2008 on make no concessions defensively; in fact, defense was the major focus in all of their acquisitions. And how did their offense perform? Same as it always has.

Curious thing.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#66 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:18 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:Dirk's supporting casts aren't just slightly better offensively but they're waaay better and building these teams around Dirk came at a cost (defense) that rendered them incapable of winning a title most years.


Okay, but the teams built around him from 2008 on make no concessions defensively; in fact, defense was the major focus in all of their acquisitions. And how did their offense perform? Same as it always has.

Curious thing.

No the offense performed worse as they started focusing on acquiring defensive guys. Their relative ORTG from 09-11 was +2.0 and from 05-07 (not counting 08 as it was a transitional year here) was +4.9 and from 02-04 it was 8.0. All 3 year samples with different types of offenses. 02-04 was small ball and Dirk had historic offenses, 05-07 was offensively built but worked at attacking the basket way more and had league best level offenses (even if they weren't the best because of Phoenix), and 09-11 was built balanced with Dirk, Terry, shooters, and defenders and they were top 10 level but not close to the level of his old teams.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#67 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:22 pm

SideshowBob wrote:
What are your thoughts on 09/10 Nowitzki vs 11? Do you think he's improved his skillset but everything doesn't come together (teamwise) until 2011 or that there are changes/improvements in 2011 that are driving the Mavs?


I got very busy and drifted from this project for a while, but now that Dirk is a serious candidate I want to address this again.

First, Chandler addition was a big deal. Really big. I actually think Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki might have the most synergistic relationship we've seen among players since Jordan/Pip or Bird/McHale. I don't just mean they complement each other; I mean they literally enable each other to do more that as individuals they didn't have the luxury of. A few small examples:

-Chandler is freed up to attack the offensive glass as Dirk is so damn diligent about retreating to quell leak outs (seriously, in all my years of watching Dirk I don't know that I've ever seen him beat down the floor in semi-transition)
-Chandler can be more aggressive about leaving the paint as Dirk is a solid body in there and an excellent defensive rebounder, meaning Chandler maintaining position isn't all that important
-Dirk doesn't have to be petrified of foul trouble anymore as the Mavs can always keep one other competent big on the floor, Dirk is free to swipe and poke at the ball which he does really well
-Dirk drags a defender out of the paint giving Chandler essentially an open playground, especially important on PNR

There are other examples. But most importantly, Chandler is a really great PNR big, and thus Dirk doesn't have to be involved every time down the floor and can focus on off-ball movement. Dirk can kind of float around and run around screens because Kidd/TC PNR is an extremely dangerous bread and butter play. Dirk's off ball game IMO has improved linearly throughout his career, probably peaking in 14 or 15. But 2011 was a big step up, both in frequency and efficacy. We see a big jump in efficiency here, and a lot of that is that a lot of his mid range looks are now catch& shoot, which he hits at like 70% (exaggerating).

Having Chandler behind him also makes him much more willing to take risks, for example attacking close outs with a hard dribble or slipping screen and rolls. He got really really good at this stuff as the year went along; it wasn't a regular part of his game before this. Again, huge efficiency spike this season.

fpliii also just posted his post up numbers, and there's a massive spike in post up efficiency this season as well. There wasn't a ton of visible difference, but apparently he was converting at an astounding rate and it probably helped that he wasn't the only competent scorer anymore.

So yeah, off ball play and post up efficiency definitely peaked in 2011, especially the off ball stuff. He was always good at it, but this was the year he really learned how to move through space and put everything together.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#68 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:24 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:Dirk's supporting casts aren't just slightly better offensively but they're waaay better and building these teams around Dirk came at a cost (defense) that rendered them incapable of winning a title most years.


Okay, but the teams built around him from 2008 on make no concessions defensively; in fact, defense was the major focus in all of their acquisitions. And how did their offense perform? Same as it always has.

Curious thing.

No the offense performed worse as they started focusing on acquiring defensive guys. Their relative ORTG from 09-11 was +2.0 and from 05-07 (not counting 08 as it was a transitional year here) was +4.9 and from 02-04 it was 8.0. All 3 year samples with different types of offenses. 02-04 was small ball and Dirk had historic offenses, 05-07 was offensively built but worked at attacking the basket way more and had league best level offenses (even if they weren't the best because of Phoenix), and 09-11 was built balanced with Dirk, Terry, shooters, and defenders and they were top 10 level but not close to the level of his old teams.


Right but from 2008-2011 Dirk was old and coasted through the regular seasons. How did their offense perform during the playoffs these seasons?

Hint: it was right back to 03 levels.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#69 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 4:51 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Okay, but the teams built around him from 2008 on make no concessions defensively; in fact, defense was the major focus in all of their acquisitions. And how did their offense perform? Same as it always has.

Curious thing.

No the offense performed worse as they started focusing on acquiring defensive guys. Their relative ORTG from 09-11 was +2.0 and from 05-07 (not counting 08 as it was a transitional year here) was +4.9 and from 02-04 it was 8.0. All 3 year samples with different types of offenses. 02-04 was small ball and Dirk had historic offenses, 05-07 was offensively built but worked at attacking the basket way more and had league best level offenses (even if they weren't the best because of Phoenix), and 09-11 was built balanced with Dirk, Terry, shooters, and defenders and they were top 10 level but not close to the level of his old teams.


Right but from 2008-2011 Dirk was old and coasted through the regular seasons. How did their offense perform during the playoffs these seasons?

Hint: it was right back to 03 levels.

There's also the school of thought (that I'm personally in) that Dirk massively improved offensively in that period and by 09 was the post maestro we saw in the 2011 playoffs when he wasn't that before. Basically as the team got worse Dirk's game matured and was able to pick up the slack in the postseason. Actually I would say those offenses performed better in the playoffs than the 05-07 teams but IDK where this is relevant in context to Wade since Wade still never had a supporting cast the level of the 09-11 Mavericks offensively. I'll go check on court ratings for other seasons FWIW but in 06 Wade had a 109.2 on court ORTG and was +21.9 on that end. Dirk in 2011 had a 115 ORTG but was only +13.2 (lol "only").
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#70 » by theonlyclutch » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:24 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:No the offense performed worse as they started focusing on acquiring defensive guys. Their relative ORTG from 09-11 was +2.0 and from 05-07 (not counting 08 as it was a transitional year here) was +4.9 and from 02-04 it was 8.0. All 3 year samples with different types of offenses. 02-04 was small ball and Dirk had historic offenses, 05-07 was offensively built but worked at attacking the basket way more and had league best level offenses (even if they weren't the best because of Phoenix), and 09-11 was built balanced with Dirk, Terry, shooters, and defenders and they were top 10 level but not close to the level of his old teams.


Right but from 2008-2011 Dirk was old and coasted through the regular seasons. How did their offense perform during the playoffs these seasons?

Hint: it was right back to 03 levels.

There's also the school of thought (that I'm personally in) that Dirk massively improved offensively in that period and by 09 was the post maestro we saw in the 2011 playoffs when he wasn't that before. Basically as the team got worse Dirk's game matured and was able to pick up the slack in the postseason. Actually I would say those offenses performed better in the playoffs than the 05-07 teams but IDK where this is relevant in context to Wade since Wade still never had a supporting cast the level of the 09-11 Mavericks offensively. I'll go check on court ratings for other seasons FWIW but in 06 Wade had a 109.2 on court ORTG and was +21.9 on that end. Dirk in 2011 had a 115 ORTG but was only +13.2 (lol "only").


Really? '06 Heat is easily at the level of '09-'10 Mavericks in terms of offense support, just looking at '09 Mavs, looking at the teams other options by desc USG% (playing over 1500 minutes)

'06 Heat:
Shaquille O'Neal
Antoine Walker (non-starter)
Jason Williams
Udonis Haslem

'09 Mavs:
Josh Howard
Jason Terry (6th man)
J.J Barea (~20 MPG, non-starter)
Brandon Bass (~20 MPG, non-starter)

The depth is relatively similar, but 59 games of Shaq is a huge difference in terms of the offensive warping on the court, as well as the ability to convert significant amounts of offensive possessions at good/great efficiency (~30% USG at 59% TS/108 ORTG)
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#71 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:30 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Right but from 2008-2011 Dirk was old and coasted through the regular seasons. How did their offense perform during the playoffs these seasons?

Hint: it was right back to 03 levels.

There's also the school of thought (that I'm personally in) that Dirk massively improved offensively in that period and by 09 was the post maestro we saw in the 2011 playoffs when he wasn't that before. Basically as the team got worse Dirk's game matured and was able to pick up the slack in the postseason. Actually I would say those offenses performed better in the playoffs than the 05-07 teams but IDK where this is relevant in context to Wade since Wade still never had a supporting cast the level of the 09-11 Mavericks offensively. I'll go check on court ratings for other seasons FWIW but in 06 Wade had a 109.2 on court ORTG and was +21.9 on that end. Dirk in 2011 had a 115 ORTG but was only +13.2 (lol "only").


Really? '06 Heat is easily at the level of '09-'10 Mavericks in terms of offense support, just looking at '09 Mavs, looking at the teams other options by desc USG% (playing over 1500 minutes)

'06 Heat:
Shaquille O'Neal
Antoine Walker
Jason Williams
Udonis Haslem

'09 Mavs:
Josh Howard
Jason Terry
J.J Barea
Brandon Bass

The depth is relatively similar, but 59 games of Shaq is a huge difference in terms of the offensive warping on the court, as well as the ability to convert significant amounts of offensive possessions at good/great efficiency (~30% USG at 59% TS/108 ORTG)


J-Ho also only played 52 games and this was his last year starting in the NBA FWIW. He didn't top 40 games in a season again.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#72 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:33 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
Right but from 2008-2011 Dirk was old and coasted through the regular seasons. How did their offense perform during the playoffs these seasons?

Hint: it was right back to 03 levels.

There's also the school of thought (that I'm personally in) that Dirk massively improved offensively in that period and by 09 was the post maestro we saw in the 2011 playoffs when he wasn't that before. Basically as the team got worse Dirk's game matured and was able to pick up the slack in the postseason. Actually I would say those offenses performed better in the playoffs than the 05-07 teams but IDK where this is relevant in context to Wade since Wade still never had a supporting cast the level of the 09-11 Mavericks offensively. I'll go check on court ratings for other seasons FWIW but in 06 Wade had a 109.2 on court ORTG and was +21.9 on that end. Dirk in 2011 had a 115 ORTG but was only +13.2 (lol "only").


Really? '06 Heat is easily at the level of '09-'10 Mavericks in terms of offense support, just looking at '09 Mavs, looking at the teams other options by desc USG% (playing over 1500 minutes)

'06 Heat:
Shaquille O'Neal
Antoine Walker
Jason Williams
Udonis Haslem

'09 Mavs:
Josh Howard
Jason Terry
J.J Barea
Brandon Bass

The depth is relatively similar, but 59 games of Shaq is a huge difference in terms of the offensive warping on the court, as well as the ability to convert significant amounts of offensive possessions at good/great efficiency (~30% USG at 59% TS/108 ORTG)

And those teams had similar ORTGs. Still I don't agree that those casts are similar. IMO the 09 Mavs are still better.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#73 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:41 pm

PaulieWal wrote:Mischievous touched on it but Spo was a defensive minded coach and even in 2011 all he did was practice defense with the team. In his own words the goal was to defend well and "let the offense take care of itself". It's clear that he had the same philosophy in 09/10 while Dirk was playing with coaches who worked on offense.

I made a passing remark about this earlier, but I want to clear something up: When Avery Johnson took over the Mavericks, he decided to turn them into a grind-out, iso-ball team. He wanted a rapid reversal from the Nellie ball years and was buying into the "defense win championships" mantra. There was absolutely no attempt to craft any kind of meaningful offense from that team, it was very much a "let Dirk do his thing" (coinciding with the highest volume-scoring years of Dirks career).

the 2006 Mavericks played at a slower pace than any team Dwyane Wade has ever played on, Miami's 2010 pace was their lowest at 89.6 while the Mavs were 87.8 (27th). The Mavs had the slower pace and the slower relative pace. This was a team that wanted to grind out wins.

I have a lot of problems with AJ, and he's not well-regarded as an NBA coach, partially for these reasons.

Everyone seems to be impressed with the Mavericks' 60-win season in which Dallas played with a defensive intensity that no one expected they could have, given their offensive-minded identity in years past.


Source: http://www.nba.com/awards2006/thecase_coach_johnson.html

hard to find articles from that period, but here's at least something pointing in that direction.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#74 » by Dr Spaceman » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:43 pm

E-Balla wrote:And those teams had similar ORTGs.


again, PLAYOFFS.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#75 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 5:57 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:And those teams had similar ORTGs.


again, PLAYOFFS.

Wade had a 109 ORTG when on the floor in that postseason and a +21 offensive on/off. Dirk didn't have to lift his offense up to those levels because his supporting cast was better as I said in the next sentence. That comparison is not apples to apples.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#76 » by theonlyclutch » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:02 pm

E-Balla wrote:
theonlyclutch wrote:
E-Balla wrote:There's also the school of thought (that I'm personally in) that Dirk massively improved offensively in that period and by 09 was the post maestro we saw in the 2011 playoffs when he wasn't that before. Basically as the team got worse Dirk's game matured and was able to pick up the slack in the postseason. Actually I would say those offenses performed better in the playoffs than the 05-07 teams but IDK where this is relevant in context to Wade since Wade still never had a supporting cast the level of the 09-11 Mavericks offensively. I'll go check on court ratings for other seasons FWIW but in 06 Wade had a 109.2 on court ORTG and was +21.9 on that end. Dirk in 2011 had a 115 ORTG but was only +13.2 (lol "only").


Really? '06 Heat is easily at the level of '09-'10 Mavericks in terms of offense support, just looking at '09 Mavs, looking at the teams other options by desc USG% (playing over 1500 minutes)

'06 Heat:
Shaquille O'Neal
Antoine Walker
Jason Williams
Udonis Haslem

'09 Mavs:
Josh Howard
Jason Terry (6th Man)
J.J Barea (~20 MPG, non-starter)
Brandon Bass (~20 MPG, non-starter)

The depth is relatively similar, but 59 games of Shaq is a huge difference in terms of the offensive warping on the court, as well as the ability to convert significant amounts of offensive possessions at good/great efficiency (~30% USG at 59% TS/108 ORTG)

And those teams had similar ORTGs. Still I don't agree that those casts are similar. IMO the 09 Mavs are still better.


2006 Heat: 108.7 ORTG
2009 Mavericks: 110.5 ORTG

There's a very clear difference in team ORTG in favor of the Mavs, the difference between the 06 Heat and the 10 Mavs is less (+0.5 in favor of Mavs), but doing the same thing to the 2010 Mavericks reveals an even worse offensive supporting cast

Josh Howard + Caron Butler (Both were barely hitting the ~100 ORTG/50% TS mark)
Jason Terry (6th Man)
J.J Barea (~20 MPG non-starter)
Shawn Marion (as a full-year starter one year after all the Wade supporters said he was washed up on the Heat..)
theonlyclutch's AT FGA-limited team - The Malevolent Eight

PG: 2008 Chauncey Billups/ 2013 Kyle Lowry
SG: 2005 Manu Ginobili/2012 James Harden
SF: 1982 Julius Erving
PF: 2013 Matt Bonner/ 2010 Amir Johnson
C: 1977 Kareem Abdul Jabaar
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#77 » by PaulieWal » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:04 pm

E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
E-Balla wrote:And those teams had similar ORTGs.


again, PLAYOFFS.

Wade had a 109 ORTG when on the floor in that postseason and a +21 offensive on/off. Dirk didn't have to lift his offense up to those levels because his supporting cast was better as I said in the next sentence. That comparison is not apples to apples.


This fascination with raw ORTG is funny.

Supporting casts are "equal" when they clearly were not.

RS on-court ORTGs are comparable but again it's about the PLAYOFFS when we would need more context to look at those specific series.

At their best both have reached high levels of ORTG but we can't give Wade credit for 2011 because he finally had two good offensive players around him.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#78 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:11 pm

theonlyclutch wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
theonlyclutch wrote:
Really? '06 Heat is easily at the level of '09-'10 Mavericks in terms of offense support, just looking at '09 Mavs, looking at the teams other options by desc USG% (playing over 1500 minutes)

'06 Heat:
Shaquille O'Neal
Antoine Walker
Jason Williams
Udonis Haslem

'09 Mavs:
Josh Howard
Jason Terry (6th Man)
J.J Barea (~20 MPG, non-starter)
Brandon Bass (~20 MPG, non-starter)

The depth is relatively similar, but 59 games of Shaq is a huge difference in terms of the offensive warping on the court, as well as the ability to convert significant amounts of offensive possessions at good/great efficiency (~30% USG at 59% TS/108 ORTG)

And those teams had similar ORTGs. Still I don't agree that those casts are similar. IMO the 09 Mavs are still better.


2006 Heat: 108.7 ORTG
2009 Mavericks: 110.5 ORTG

There's a very clear difference in team ORTG in favor of the Mavs, the difference between the 06 Heat and the 10 Mavs is less (+0.5 in favor of Mavs), but doing the same thing to the 2010 Mavericks reveals an even worse offensive supporting cast

Josh Howard + Caron Butler (Both were barely hitting the ~100 ORTG/50% TS mark)
Jason Terry (6th Man)
J.J Barea (~20 MPG non-starter)
Shawn Marion (as a full-year starter one year after all the Wade supporters said he was washed up on the Heat..)

2006 Heat: +2.5 ORTG
2009 Mavericks: +2.2 ORTG
2010 Mavericks: +1.6 ORTG

Compared to league average the Heat were actually better and they ranked 7th on offense while the 2009 Mavs were 8th and the 2010 Mavs 10th. Also Marion wasn't the second option in Dallas and their offense wasn't much better than the 09 Heat with Marion and Beasley as the next best offensive players instead of reigning 6MOY Jason Terry.
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#79 » by E-Balla » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:16 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
again, PLAYOFFS.

Wade had a 109 ORTG when on the floor in that postseason and a +21 offensive on/off. Dirk didn't have to lift his offense up to those levels because his supporting cast was better as I said in the next sentence. That comparison is not apples to apples.


This fascination with raw ORTG is funny.

Supporting casts are "equal" when they clearly were not.

RS on-court ORTGs are comparable but again it's about the PLAYOFFS when we would need more context to look at those specific series.

At their best both have reached high levels of ORTG but we can't give Wade credit for 2011 because he finally had two good offensive players around him.

Yeah I feel like mentioning his disappointing ORTGs but not counting 2011 when he actually had a not crappy team because his team was good is absurd. Like seriously why does it matter if Lebron was on the team when Lebron prior to playing with Wade never had offenses that good and Wade (at least in 2011) got just as much touches as Lebron (if not more) when they were on the floor together and Wade led the team in on court ORTG?
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Re: Peaks Project #14 

Post#80 » by PaulieWal » Mon Sep 28, 2015 6:24 pm

E-Balla wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
E-Balla wrote:Wade had a 109 ORTG when on the floor in that postseason and a +21 offensive on/off. Dirk didn't have to lift his offense up to those levels because his supporting cast was better as I said in the next sentence. That comparison is not apples to apples.


This fascination with raw ORTG is funny.

Supporting casts are "equal" when they clearly were not.

RS on-court ORTGs are comparable but again it's about the PLAYOFFS when we would need more context to look at those specific series.

At their best both have reached high levels of ORTG but we can't give Wade credit for 2011 because he finally had two good offensive players around him.

Yeah I feel like mentioning his disappointing ORTGs but not counting 2011 when he actually had a not crappy team because his team was good is absurd. Like seriously why does it matter if Lebron was on the team when Lebron prior to playing with Wade never had offenses that good and Wade (at least in 2011) got just as much touches as Lebron (if not more) when they were on the floor together and Wade led the team in on court ORTG?


Yup, and I can see why you would want to discount the 2013 RS ORTG when at least he was the clear cut 2nd option but in 2011 he was 1a/1b with LeBron so there's not any rational argument to discount that.

Turns out having LeBron is a lot better than Chalmers and Beasley :roll:.

Even in 09, 10 he was rocking 110.5, 111.9 which are pretty good ratings.

For reference KD in 2014 RS was rocking 112.3 for example.

I just like how this has become the ORTG project. I'd like to find my way back to the peaks project if possible.
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