Baalke's drafting record

[wco81]

Interesting summary:

http://forums.49ers.com/showthread.php?161975-ACL-ALL-Stars-and-Busts-Baalke-is-Responsible-for-our-Failures&p=6074830&viewfull=1#post6074830

This post plots league averages:

http://forums.49ers.com/showthread.php?161975-ACL-ALL-Stars-and-Busts-Baalke-is-Responsible-for-our-Failures&p=6074859&viewfull=1#post6074859


During the whole Harbaugh brouhaha, there was reporting that the front office believed it had such a great roster, they were willing to part with Harbaugh, who they thought was getting too much credit for the great player personnel work of the FO.

Yet it appears Baalke's record in getting good starters in the top half of the draft is about average.

[clyde21]

You cant enter the links unless you have an account.

[wco81]

Ok here's the initial post. There is another post which shows a plot of drafts and starters across the league, which shows Baalke is within the average.

In the last FIVE years, Baalke has had TWENTY-SIX picks in the first FOUR rounds. That's an astounding number. Of those 26 picks, only 4 of those are starting for this franchise: Eric Reid, Colin Kaepernick, Carlos Hyde & Marcus Martin (who isn't really looking good). Of the remaining 22 players, at least 11 of them were complete failures:

1. A.J. Jenkins (gone) 1st round pick
2. Marcus Lattimore (gone) 4th round pick
3. Vance McDonald (you can argue this one if you'd like) 2nd round pick
4. Jimmie Ward (I'm sorry, NO impact on the game) 1st round pick
5. Kendall Hunter (gone) 4th round pick(maybe I'm nitpicking here, I liked Kendall when healthy)
6. Brandon Thomas (garbage) 3rd round pick
7. Corey Lemonade (garbage) 3rd round pick
8. Quinton Patton (lol) 4th round pick
9. LaMichael James (gone and garbage) 2nd round pick
10. Joe Looney (gone, mediocre). 4th round pick
11. Marcus Martin (garbage) 3rd round pick

-That's 2 wasted 1st round picks with 1 on the fence in Armstead
- 2 wasted 2nd round picks, and possibly more with Kaep at the crossroads and Tank getting limited playing time (though I'm still hoping he pans out)
- 4 wasted 3rd round picks, a number which is greater if we include guys no longer with the team
- and 4 wasted 4th round picks

Note: out of the ENTIRE 2012 draft, ZERO players remain on the team. Baalke is the only GM that has a fetish for drafting ACL All-stars. None of which have panned out, while 2 are in progress (Tank Carradine 2nd round pick and Kenneth Acker, starting and getting burned).

Baalke has caught some tough breaks, with the obvious players who unexpectedly retired, and those who cannot stay out of trouble with the law. He's found some notable gems in the later rounds, like Dontae Johnson, Hyde, Borland (who quit after a year), and a few others - and he's hit on SOME early picks... But the negligence he's had for not drafting a CB, for not addressing the worst o-line in the NFL when you're over $10 MILLION under the cap, for swinging and missing on several 1st round picks, for having more picks than any GM in the league, and wasting several on ACL redshirts, having the inability to draft a legitimate WR and passing on SEVERAL over the years, for failing to bring in a legitimate backup QB to compete, for firing an legitimate coaching staff and failing to bring in any reputable candidates and deciding to hire from within, and for forcing the identity of "WE'RE GONNA RUN!" the day you hire a defensive lineman as your HC and letting the whole NFL know your plan on offense... The list goes on and on.

For years we've given WAY too much credit to Baalke for this squad. In reality, I think Scott McDrunken had more to do with our recent success than Baalke. McDrunken had set an extremely solid foundation, and Baalke made some very nice additions, but over the last 4-5 years, the talent as slowly declined. The difference between the 49ers and our hated rivals in Seattle, is the GM position. You can point to players of course, but it all rests in the GM's hands. John Schneider has assembled the deepest roster in the league and almost created a dynasty (I get sick thinking of it). Look at the drafts over the last few years, and you will see how and why we are becoming the laughing stock of the league.

Jed is definitely part of the blame, but Trent Baalke has swung and missed on far too many early round picks, and he should be held accountable.

[wco81]

Here is an article on Elways drafts but there is a chart showing league averages.

http://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

And here is a report with a graph which attempts to assign bust probability depending on who
En a player is drafted:

http://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/

[CalamityX12]

I've said this here and on redzone(gasp!)... there's one first rd pick that still plays/starts in the last 4-5 first rd selections by Baalke...

2nd round? Kap and vance with Tank as well IIRC

[Pattersonca65]

I will read the links later. Thanks for posting them. The jury is still out on many of Baalke's picks. Many of them haven't had significant playing time until this year. I think by the end of this year, we will get a better idea of how these picks panned out. Hyde and Reid were really good picks. He also had some good FA signings like Bethea. Pears and Wright were awful signings. The 2012 draft was a disaster. I wouldn't yet call Marcus Martin and Brandon Thomas a disaster. Thomas is basically a rookie this year. Martin is only 21 years old and playing in his first full season. I don't believe the intention was to have Martin or Thomas starting this year but because of the surprise retirement of Anthony Davis and Kilgore's rehab taking much longer than expected, Martin was pressed into duty before he was ready. It can take time for olineman develop. These two players might end up being garbage but it is too early to tell. Other players like Tank are a question mark. Tank was at the least supposed to be able to put pressure on the QB, and for the most part has been an invisible man. Ellington can't stay health and neither can Vance McDonald. If the 2013 and 2014 drafts don't end up working out, Baalke needs to go.

[shouldakepowens]

How can they say armstead is on the fence as a wasted first round pick after 3 games? He might be the only one who showed up against the cards.

[Jikkle]

The biggest thing that killing this team and really been killing Baalke is the 1st round.

Eric Reid is the only guy on the team that's a starter that's been picked in the 1st round in recent draft history. You would have to go all the way back to 2007 with Joe Stately to have a 1st rounder that's still on the team.

Some of it's not his fault granted like Willis, Aldon, and Davis but under his watch the first round of 2012 was a waste, 2013 was good but Reid isn't as good as he was when he was a rookie, 2014 is a waste and still the biggest what are you thinking moment of his drafts, and 2015 the jury is still out but Armstead is going to have to be a monster for that pick to be worth it.

Not to mention the 2nd round has been rather hit and miss for him as well.

He's completely whiffed on the WR position and has missed pretty badly on the OL position as well.

The other issue is it's nice to have draft currency but you need to use that to get more talented players. I think it's ok every once in a while to refill your depth by making a lot of picks but it's overkill to do it 3 years in a row and instead of adding guys with superstar level talent you just keep adding guys that have a decent amount of talent. Sometimes guys are late round picks for a reason and it's not because everyone else is an idiot and you're a genius for seeing talent nobody else sees.

[Pattersonca65]

Won't say Armstead is a bad pick yet. At the same time, If Armstead does not turn into a big time stud player was it really the best plan to draft a dlineman in the 1st round when there were bigger needs at other positions? Baalke seems to be drafting mostly BPA and then drafting a bunch of projects? Did we really need to draft a safety and so many tight ends this year?

[Dodub]

You won't find many Baalke defenders here. He's a horrible drafter

[Tomikcon1971]

Having all the draft picks he's accumulated clouds the issue a bit. It lulls you into a bit of "wow" until you realize what we've done with them and that we could have done so much more.

I'll give him a pass on Davis and Borland retiring. No way to predict that.

Overall, a lot of the responsibility on where we are at today falls at his feet.

So, if the 1% chance of Jed firing him comes to fruition, who's out there? I don't want a coach GM combo.

[Pattersonca65]

Having all the draft picks he's accumulated clouds the issue a bit. It lulls you into a bit of "wow" until you realize what we've done with them and that we could have done so much more.

I'll give him a pass on Davis and Borland retiring. No way to predict that.

Overall, a lot of the responsibility on where we are at today falls at his feet.

So, if the 1% chance of Jed firing him comes to fruition, who's out there? I don't want a coach GM combo.

Yep, there are only a very few who can both coach and GM. I don't think the 49ers should give anyone that power. I think if the 49ers do look for a new GM, one place to look is in the successful teams to see if there are any successful assistant GM types that are worthy of being promoted. We also have Tom Gamble on staff. Pozz seems to really like him. What I think Jed should do (he probably never will) is to hire a good President over football operations to run the football side of the business. Jed and Paraag should run the business side of the team and let football people run the football operation. Just write checks and hold people accountable in their duties. I know it would never happen.

[49er4life1979]

Having all the draft picks he's accumulated clouds the issue a bit. It lulls you into a bit of "wow" until you realize what we've done with them and that we could have done so much more.

I'll give him a pass on Davis and Borland retiring. No way to predict that.

Overall, a lot of the responsibility on where we are at today falls at his feet.

So, if the 1% chance of Jed firing him comes to fruition, who's out there? I don't want a coach GM combo.

Yep, there are only a very few who can both coach and GM. I don't think the 49ers should give anyone that power. I think if the 49ers do look for a new GM, one place to look is in the successful teams to see if there are any successful assistant GM types that are worthy of being promoted. We also have Tom Gamble on staff. Pozz seems to really like him. What I think Jed should do (he probably never will) is to hire a good President over football operations to run the football side of the business. Jed and Paraag should run the business side of the team and let football people run the football operation. Just write checks and hold people accountable in their duties. I know it would never happen.

I would give Baalke a C grade as a GM. Good 2011 draft but hardly anyone left on the team, 2012 a disaster. In 2013, Reid is a good find. Dial, for where he was taken is good value considering he is a starter. But the real sore spots are Tank and Vance. You expect a lot more from 2nd round picks than what they got. Lemonier, a 3rd rounder is nothing more than a backup...Still too early to tell for 2014, but Hyde looks like a star, and Aaron Lynch is a nice player...As for free agency, good finds over the years and the trade for Boldin was great...But his 2012 is what brings his grade down, as well as 2013 - namely the 2nd rounders. And the jury is still out on Jimmie Ward, a natural S playing out of position.

[B-King]

My biggest beef with Balke is falling in love with additional picks versus trading up and drafting a difference maker. He traded up to draft Reid who is considered one of his best picks. For the last few years the Niners were one of the deeper teams in the league and it didn't make much sense to me to keep trading down.

The other big blunder was not even bothering to try and sign another punt returner when Ted Ginn Jr. went down with an injury. Kyle Williams was always too reckless as a returner.

[wco81]

If the season continues on this trend, the way the OL was handled as well as the assembling of the coaching staff will have to be two big marks in the negative column.

[wco81]

Free agent moves have been a bust:

More than a dozen veteran players who started games for the 49ers last season did not return for a variety of reasons.

And general manager Trent Baalke’s counter moves in free agency did little to ameliorate all the losses of vital, contributing players.

The 49ers are in last place in the NFC West with a 1-4 record, including three blowout losses. And their free-agent acquisitions have largely failed to produce as expected in the roles for which they were signed.

The 49ers lost four players – Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Anthony Davis and Chris Borland -- due to retirements. Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox and Dan Skuta signed elsewhere as free agents for a combined $58.8 million in guaranteed money.

In addition, the 49ers released outside linebacker Aldon Smith and wide receiver Stevie Johnson and traded punter Andy Lee.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/baalkes-free-agent-class-has-been-bust

[Pattersonca65]

Free agent moves have been a bust:

More than a dozen veteran players who started games for the 49ers last season did not return for a variety of reasons.

And general manager Trent Baalke’s counter moves in free agency did little to ameliorate all the losses of vital, contributing players.

The 49ers are in last place in the NFC West with a 1-4 record, including three blowout losses. And their free-agent acquisitions have largely failed to produce as expected in the roles for which they were signed.

The 49ers lost four players – Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Anthony Davis and Chris Borland -- due to retirements. Frank Gore, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox and Dan Skuta signed elsewhere as free agents for a combined $58.8 million in guaranteed money.

In addition, the 49ers released outside linebacker Aldon Smith and wide receiver Stevie Johnson and traded punter Andy Lee.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/49ers/baalkes-free-agent-class-has-been-bust

Good article. And some people say MM is a shill for the FO. Baalke's record sure is looking worse as time goes on. I am surprised Pears has given up only one sack. I wonder how many pressures he's allowed. I seen alot of defensive players blow right around him.

[wco81]

So according to this site, the 49ers have $12 million in cap space right now, putting them in 5th place for the most cap room. But they're paying over $22 million in dead money, which is one of the highest figures in the league.

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

So they're actually spending $114 million out of a $150 million cap, which puts them towards the bottom of the league.

In 2016, they're projected to have almost $42 million in cap space with $104 million in cap spending. Then $64 million cap space in 2017.

What exactly are they saving money for? They've given out all the big extensions now and unless the players from the last 2 or 3 drafts turn out to be all-pro types, and so far they don't appear to be, other than maybe Reid, they won't have to give out a big extension for awhile.

Maybe they're trying to squeeze out even bigger profits? Don't teams have to spend some minimum amount on payroll? I'm sure the 49ers are above the threshold but the cap is projected to go up each year.

Unless they get a lot of studs in the draft who command $40 million or greater contracts, they will have a lot of cap space. Even if the players on the roster now turn into those kinds of players, they won't have to give out extensions for at least a couple more seasons.

So would Baalke go against what he's done so far and try to sign big FAs to use up some of that cap space? Or is Jed wanting to pinch more money?

[Pattersonca65]

So according to this site, the 49ers have $12 million in cap space right now, putting them in 5th place for the most cap room. But they're paying over $22 million in dead money, which is one of the highest figures in the league.

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space/

So they're actually spending $114 million out of a $150 million cap, which puts them towards the bottom of the league.

In 2016, they're projected to have almost $42 million in cap space with $104 million in cap spending. Then $64 million cap space in 2017.

What exactly are they saving money for? They've given out all the big extensions now and unless the players from the last 2 or 3 drafts turn out to be all-pro types, and so far they don't appear to be, other than maybe Reid, they won't have to give out a big extension for awhile.

Maybe they're trying to squeeze out even bigger profits? Don't teams have to spend some minimum amount on payroll? I'm sure the 49ers are above the threshold but the cap is projected to go up each year.

Unless they get a lot of studs in the draft who command $40 million or greater contracts, they will have a lot of cap space. Even if the players on the roster now turn into those kinds of players, they won't have to give out extensions for at least a couple more seasons.

So would Baalke go against what he's done so far and try to sign big FAs to use up some of that cap space? Or is Jed wanting to pinch more money?

Not defending Baalke by any means, but the 2016 and 2017 figures as I think you mentioned don't account for the players that are going to sign an extensions or new contracts. Hard to know what that could look like without putting all the players down on paper and looking at all the contracts in order to determine whos likely to receive an extension and for how much. Then the cost of signing draft picks, etc. There is alot to blame York and Baalke for, but spending money up to this point isn't one of them. The 49ers have been up against the cap the past couple of years with one of the league's most expensive coaching staffs up till this year. The team finally has some cap space due to retirements etc this year. The large amount of dead money is not good and a bad relfextion on Baalke, Dead money can really hurt a team moving forward. If you look at the Hawks, they used have a good amount of cap space but they did not go crazy on FA spending. They mostly saved the money to resign their own players which they appeared to do a pretty good job of. They are now in about the same place we were in capwise a couple fof years ago.

[wco81]

Here's this year's cap hits for each player:

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/san-francisco-49ers/

And here are the free agents after this season:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/san-francisco-49ers/

I would think VD is gone, probably Boldin too, unless they have monster seasons the rest of the way.

Maybe they try to replace Dawson too.

The biggest decision will probably be Boone, who'll probably want a salary approaching $10 million a year.

Ian Williams may be retained but he shouldn't cost much and the other young players 28 or under may be worth keeping if the salary is low enough.

But Trent may decide he can replace most of them with 5th or 6th round picks, especially if they blew out their ACLs.