Zach Lowe article: "The Edge of Glory"

[BlzMwt]

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-edge-of-glory-will-the-clippers-make-the-leap-or-hit-reset/

Solid analysis by Lowe on the clippers in this article, at least for a writer who has to follow all 30 teams. I think the idea of this or next season being do or die or the team will blow it up and rebuild is a little bit of hyperbole but the rest is solid. I believe that either Paul or some other source close to him said that he plans to retire a Clipper, Deandre just re-upped and I doubt Blake leaves considering his ties and friendship with DJ. And I seriously doubt one of them gets traded because I doubt there is a better fit for the 3 of them than each other.

Some interesting excerpts from the article:

After an offseason of reflection, the Clippers are easing into a more conservative scheme. Jordan and Griffin will stick around the paint more instead of leaping out like madmen. “We’re gonna make some changes,” says Rivers, “and we want DJ to be closer to the rim.” Rivers and Lawrence Frank, the team’s defensive coordinator, have the team working out the kinks in the preseason.

The goal is to play the pick-and-roll 2-on-2 so that the other L.A. defenders can glue themselves to shooters instead of darting in to help on a big rolling to the rim and then darting back out toward their original guy.3 The Clips will serve up more open midrangers this way, but over 100 possessions, the numbers should tilt in a good direction: fewer 3s and fouls, better defensive rebounding.

And in Stephenson, they finally have the long, burly wing capable of at least hanging with Durant, LeBron, Kawhi Leonard, and other studs. (For what it’s worth, Rivers thinks Johnson has a shot against them, too, even though he brings a track record of shaky defense. “We watched him in the gym the other day and just said, ‘****, you can defend!’” Rivers says, laughing. “‘Where the **** has that been?’”)

“Lance is absolutely our no. 1 option against all those guys,” Rivers says. He also wants Stephenson pitching in on bigger point guards so Paul can rest a bit on defense.

[nickhx2]

good article. but i'm already in some kind of panic mode seeing how the bench has played thus far, and lance does not seem like he's indiana lance in the slightest.

[QRich3]

Yeah, awesome article as usual from Lowe, really good in depth analysis about the Clippers situation.

To be fair, he brings that hypothetical of blowing it up more like a distant future thing, and Lowe recognizes that a team like this, who's sent the two last champions home in the last two playoffs, should just ride it out and wait for the sort of lucky breaks the Mavs had in 2011 and the Warriors had last year. But I think it's fair to think that if things go south next season a big trade might be coming. DJ is definitely the biggest candidate for that, as he'll probably have a good trade value, and as he points out, with a big man like Blake you can live having a worse C and playing Blake at C more minutes. To be honest, I'm watching the Paul George situation closely, it points out to the beginning of a disgruntled star, and he's a childhood Clippers fan. Just wishful thinking for now, but DJ + something for George would be a good alternative to blowing it up, if he ever becomes available.

Other than that, I'm very curious about the non-public team-analytics that Lowe mentions, which say we score better than we should for the type of shots we take, and that we defend better than we should for the type of shots we force. That could say something like we're using the wrong system but we're getting by because of raw talent, and a change in the system/coach could mean a big jump in performance, sort of like the Warriors experienced last year.

Plus, I couldn't agree more with Lowe about Doc's weird refusal of staggering Paul's and Blake's minutes so that there's always one of them on the floor. Specially because during the stretches one of them was out injured we did very well, which tells you we could always have a top offense as long as one of those two + scrubs are on the floor. Instead we trot those all-bench line-ups and get into a hole every freaking time, which the starters need to climb back up from.

good article. but i'm already in some kind of panic mode seeing how the bench has played thus far, and lance does not seem like he's indiana lance in the slightest.

More than panic mode, I'd call that realism. Never bought into how Lance was supposed to mutate into an awesome player when he's never been one, and the bad fit with all the chuckers on the bench should be obvious to anyone. We just thought he'd have to trade Jamal cause he couldn't possibly intend to play all of them at once, but guess what, he does!

More than the bench, I'm scared about the starting unit not working out as well without Barnes. The bench was bad last year, it will probably still be bad this year, but we'll still get by if the starters are as good as they used to be. Will they though?

[nickhx2]

Yeah, I mostly agree. I thought lance was primed (and still can very much have) a bounce back year, but it hasn't been pretty.

The real issue is that doc stupidly decided to not have ANY kind of offense set for the bench, and he decided that keeping jamal crawford was somehow going to help that. When i heard him and the bench guys start going on about the "we don't know what we are doing, so you don't know either" my jaw dropped. Literally one of the dumbest strategies i've ever of for a professional sports team. I had a glimmer of hope though because the training camp signals were pretty good but thus far it's been a wreck.

I think the starters are fine though. Justin russo's film session on clipsnation highlights some of the very smart little things that wes johnson is doing. The team could use one trade and several intense practice sessions and i think we'll get our bench offense all sorted out.


RE: blowing up the core

DJ looks like a different player, even though it's only been two games. He's smarter and i think the defense will suit him better. Obviously it's preseason and maybe premature but this might be the year where he goes into the category of elite defender. If that's the case i don't see how you can trade him for a paul george unless the replacement center is pretty good.

Also expected shots vs actual scoring: i think the article he is referring to is this http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/28/introducing-kobe-a-measure-of-shot-quality/

[QRich3]

DJ looks like a different player, even though it's only been two games. He's smarter and i think the defense will suit him better. Obviously it's preseason and maybe premature but this might be the year where he goes into the category of elite defender. If that's the case i don't see how you can trade him for a paul george unless the replacement center is pretty good.

Not to be that guy, but isn't this what we've always been saying since what? 3 or 4 years ago? I'm done letting my expectations for him to become an elite defensive anchor disappoint me.

Even if they let him fall back a little more, he's still bad at making decisions when helping. I actually though the heavy trapping scheme does actually benefit his strengths, even if it's risky overall. Put him having to make quick decisions under the basket and his flaws will be more exposed, as much as he likes blocking shots. And either way, if he finally becomes that guy, you know, the other guy is pretty good too, you don't get back a superstar for just anything

In any case, it was a thought more about fit than who's the superior player (which at this point it's George and it's not really close). Having a cheaper Mozgov-type of role player instead of a big-salary, elite-rebounder like him could be enough for what he gives us overall, but having a two-way star wing would mean the world to us.

Also expected shots vs actual scoring: i think the article he is referring to is this http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/09/28/introducing-kobe-a-measure-of-shot-quality/

That one on Nylon Calculus is nice, but it's still a public DIY metric done by the guys at the site using what's publicly available with SportVU on the NBA site. Lowe mentions a stat not available to the public that some team created (he doesn't specify who), where apart from shot-distance/defender-distance and all that, also takes into account who's defending who, among other things. Some team probably leaked that info to him. In any case, he says that metric has us overachieving on both ends, which might mean we have more talent than we think, but we're not putting it to the best use.

[mattd13]

I think the second unit will get better with time if you take jamal and Austin out of the rotation and replace them with smarter defensive minded players. let lance lead that team and keep the score in check. if you are going to start wes, which I think is a mistake, then josh, paul, lance, cole and the old guy should be your team. if doc really wants to improve then he has to embrace this idea.

[nickhx2]

I think we're coming from different places because never in my life have i expected anything good out of deandre jordan lol. The hate i had for him in years past has been borderline obsessive. So maybe my frame of reference is already skewed. Literally any improvement on his side makes me go "whoa cool did not expect that." I'm never really let down lol.

I was more looking at some of the little things where he's not biting on fakes and he's making some of the smarter rotations i never really noticed before. But yeah we'll see how it goes. And yeah i know i sound crazy for saying what i said. But to be clear my premise is "if jordan looks like he has been looking this preseason and he's a legit elite defender and yearly dpoy candidate, can you trade that for a paul george?" I guess that's a whole other discussion though and just me thinking out loud with a bunch of other factors in mind.

RE: metrics

yeah i read the article but maybe too fast, i must have missed the part where he was talking about the private stats. That's pretty interesting to know, regardless. But wouldn't it be interpreted as more of us playing over our heads? With coming down to earth and regressing to the mean at some point? i.e. variance that worked in our favor

[madmaxmedia]

DJ will never be a low post offensive threat, but I guess it's possible to run more plays/moves to try to free him up to do the things he does do well- dive to the basket, etc. Well, basically dive to the basket, and dunk the basketball. On defense, I believe he does get incrementally more solid every year- he used to be great help defender and all potential after that. I think he's more than that now. Strong big men can have their way with him down low, but there's not that many classic centers in the league anymore anyway.

I don't know that you trade him for Paul George, a lot depends on how well George does this year.

I stick by my premise that Lance Stephenson was a good (and improving) NBA player 2 years ago, but the bad version of him is definitely pretty bad. He only cost us Spencer Hawes though, so it was a risk worth taking for sure.

I think there's zero chance we 'blow things up' regardless of how the season turns out. Well, unless we go 42-42 or something crazy like that, but that's simply not going to happen unless there was a major injury anyway.

I agree with the ideas of being more conservative on defense, in order to get better return for the effort required. I think if anything Wesley Johnson should have the most potential for being a decent defender, as a true commitment to hustle plus that athletic body gets you most of the way there.

The Clippers don't initiate enough offense by drives to the basket, that's what I meant by calling them stagnant at times. When it's crunch time, everyone in the arena knows it's either going to be CP3 one-on-one, or a high post entry pass to Blake. Even just getting Blake the ball in his spot often ran the shot clock down to 8 seconds, by then the Clippers are basically committed and the defense knows it. When teams are dialed in on D, it's harder for them to create when everyone is anticipating it, and less room for kick outs to Redick and Barnes (last year). Paul Pierce will change this with his versatility anytime he's in the game, and I was hoping Lance could add this element as well. But as Zack says he needs to move off the ball, and be decisive when he has the ball.

And we definitely need offensive structure for the 2nd unit, otherwise it will be a mess with Smith, Stephenson, and Crawford out there. If you give them direction and focus however, even just some basic sets to run through most possessions, there is the potential for great things on a semi-regular basis. If we don't at least reach that point, it will be pretty disappointing. If that happens, I think the Clippers will just re-tool the supporting pieces again.

At the end of the day, we also have to realize that the Clippers could be extremely successful the next 2-3 years, and still not win a title. We could reach the conference finals and lose twice to the re-jiggered Spurs, or lose in the Finals to the loaded Cavaliers, there's no shame in either.

[Wammy Giveaway]

To be honest, I'm watching the Paul George situation closely, it points out to the beginning of a disgruntled star, and he's a childhood Clippers fan. Just wishful thinking for now, but DJ + something for George would be a good alternative to blowing it up, if he ever becomes available.

As Paul George is a superstar, him to the Clippers would be a savior-type of move. He's played with Lance Stephenson before; maybe he can patch things up and calm him down. Secondly, he can play both the shooting guard and small forward positions, preserving Paul Pierce's spot of small forward (or you can shift Blake Griffin to small forward to assume point forward duties and put Pierce in his power forward spot).

Most importantly, George gives the Clippers a True Big 3 with Paul-George-Griffin. Pierce makes them a Fantastic 4 (Paul-George-Pierce-Griffin). If DJ makes the All Star game this year, they become a Furious 5. If I'm correct, no team in NBA history has ever won a championship with five superstars on the starting lineup (Pierce has a Finals MVP, preserving his superstar status).

But George will be costly. $17.1 million as of this posting. His would be a farm trade. And remember: the Celtics farm trade of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen gave Doc Rivers his first championship in 2008. Doc is desperately trying to re-create how he won his first title. Having Pierce ensures Doc a conference finals appearance. But what are the odds that a championship is just a superstar trade away. And you can do it without breaking up the core.

Here's the proposed package:

J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, C.J. Wilcox, Cole Aldrich, Wesley Johnson, Branden Dawson, 2016 draft pick (cash optional)

Since the Clippers have no hard cap because they are above the tax threshold, they can get new players to sign at the veteran's minimum. All the Clips have to do is pay luxury tax. They'll lose Redick and Crawford, but it's all about the Paul-Griffin-Jordan tandem now. You don't lose Pierce, Stephenson, or Doc's son Austin. You'll have to rebuild on the fly, and in a week might I add for I could see this as a deadline deal, or even during the All Star break. But right now, it's all about winning and erasing the 3-1 collapse of last year.

What a turnaround that would be if they could get Paul George.

[BlzMwt]

To be honest, I'm watching the Paul George situation closely, it points out to the beginning of a disgruntled star, and he's a childhood Clippers fan. Just wishful thinking for now, but DJ + something for George would be a good alternative to blowing it up, if he ever becomes available.

Here's the proposed package:

J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, C.J. Wilcox, Cole Aldrich, Wesley Johnson, Branden Dawson, 2016 draft pick (cash optional)

Since the Clippers have no hard cap because they are above the tax threshold, they can get new players to sign at the veteran's minimum. All the Clips have to do is pay luxury tax. They'll lose Redick and Crawford, but it's all about the Paul-Griffin-Jordan tandem now. You don't lose Pierce, Stephenson, or Doc's son Austin. You'll have to rebuild on the fly, and in a week might I add for I could see this as a deadline deal, or even during the All Star break. But right now, it's all about winning and erasing the 3-1 collapse of last year.

What a turnaround that would be if they could get Paul George.

I am almost certain that QRich offered that as a complete hypothetical that wouldn't be this season but down the line type of thing, if the team couldn't get over the hump this season or next. Very interesting idea, but I am pretty sure that the Pacers could get a much better deal than that for George. Considering he doesn't have much leverage because his deal goes all the way till 2019. The Pacers would surely demand DJ be included or another team be involved to facilitate a 3way trade. If the pacers traded George they would be looking to rebuild, getting back Wilcox, Dawson and a 2016 draft pick that would be in the 24-30 range isn't exactly the most enticing deal. I'm sure the Celtics could offer something much better considering their haul of picks and young players.

The real issue is that doc stupidly decided to not have ANY kind of offense set for the bench, and he decided that keeping jamal crawford was somehow going to help that. When i heard him and the bench guys start going on about the "we don't know what we are doing, so you don't know either" my jaw dropped. Literally one of the dumbest strategies i've ever of for a professional sports team. I had a glimmer of hope though because the training camp signals were pretty good but thus far it's been a wreck.

Was this actually said? By Doc? What was the context of this?

[BlzMwt]

Also the only thing that I have seen from the Pacers in that George isn't happy is that he was willing to try out playing PF, but he wasn't sure how it would go. This was after comments by Larry Bird I believe, saying they were going to use him there.

Other than that, George made comments like a week ago how he thought that the Pacers could be at the top of the Eastern conference this season. Sounds like he is committed.

[Dirkbaka]

To be honest, I'm watching the Paul George situation closely, it points out to the beginning of a disgruntled star, and he's a childhood Clippers fan. Just wishful thinking for now, but DJ + something for George would be a good alternative to blowing it up, if he ever becomes available.

As Paul George is a superstar, him to the Clippers would be a savior-type of move. He's played with Lance Stephenson before; maybe he can patch things up and calm him down. Secondly, he can play both the shooting guard and small forward positions, preserving Paul Pierce's spot of small forward (or you can shift Blake Griffin to small forward to assume point forward duties and put Pierce in his power forward spot).

Most importantly, George gives the Clippers a True Big 3 with Paul-George-Griffin. Pierce makes them a Fantastic 4 (Paul-George-Pierce-Griffin). If DJ makes the All Star game this year, they become a Furious 5. If I'm correct, no team in NBA history has ever won a championship with five superstars on the starting lineup (Pierce has a Finals MVP, preserving his superstar status).

But George will be costly. $17.1 million as of this posting. His would be a farm trade. And remember: the Celtics farm trade of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen gave Doc Rivers his first championship in 2008. Doc is desperately trying to re-create how he won his first title. Having Pierce ensures Doc a conference finals appearance. But what are the odds that a championship is just a superstar trade away. And you can do it without breaking up the core.

Here's the proposed package:

J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, C.J. Wilcox, Cole Aldrich, Wesley Johnson, Branden Dawson, 2016 draft pick (cash optional)

Since the Clippers have no hard cap because they are above the tax threshold, they can get new players to sign at the veteran's minimum. All the Clips have to do is pay luxury tax. They'll lose Redick and Crawford, but it's all about the Paul-Griffin-Jordan tandem now. You don't lose Pierce, Stephenson, or Doc's son Austin. You'll have to rebuild on the fly, and in a week might I add for I could see this as a deadline deal, or even during the All Star break. But right now, it's all about winning and erasing the 3-1 collapse of last year.

What a turnaround that would be if they could get Paul George.

They would laugh at your face and hang up the phone at that package.

You give them crap role players and a crap draft pick for a top 10 player. Do you guys even think before you propose things?

[nickhx2]

chill

it's one guy who said that and who is a fan of another team

[nickhx2]

blzmwt, i can't seem to find the quote. but i heard at least a couple guys say it. if i can, i'll put something down.

[QRich3]

Yeah, like BlzMwt said, it was just more wishful thinking than anything, and I already said pretty clearly we can't get him right now unless we put Blake into the trade. Lots of things have to go wrong in Indiana for them to even think about trading him, that scenario would take a year or two at the very least, and the only real assets we could turn into him are either Blake (not gonna happen) or DJ if he develops into a better player. Lots of teams would offer half the roster for him, so beating their offers would be tough if it even got to that situation.

It bothers me a bit that with all the interesting things the article talks about, the thing that takes over the thread is a throwaway remark about a potential trade years down the line.

I think we're coming from different places because never in my life have i expected anything good out of deandre jordan lol. The hate i had for him in years past has been borderline obsessive. So maybe my frame of reference is already skewed. Literally any improvement on his side makes me go "whoa cool did not expect that." I'm never really let down lol.

I was more looking at some of the little things where he's not biting on fakes and he's making some of the smarter rotations i never really noticed before. But yeah we'll see how it goes. And yeah i know i sound crazy for saying what i said.

Yeah, I guess so, I've been expecting him to turn into a top 5 defensive anchor every year for the last two or three, he seems to give flashes of that every year at different times, then he just turns to his inconsistent self again. It frustrates me quite a bit, and I think I've said as much a few times here. He's 27 now and I don't expect him to ever 'get it' defensively anymore, he'll have good stretches, but it's always gonna be difficult to consistently have a good defense with him in the middle. Hopefully I'll be surprised, but I doubt it.

yeah i read the article but maybe too fast, i must have missed the part where he was talking about the private stats. That's pretty interesting to know, regardless. But wouldn't it be interpreted as more of us playing over our heads? With coming down to earth and regressing to the mean at some point? i.e. variance that worked in our favor

I don't know, a full season is a big enough sample size not to blame it on variance, and we had the best offense the year prior too, I can only assume that the type of shots taken had to be similar. And our spacing has always been clean by just a hair. It's very interesting what Redick says on the article about Doc being a great teacher for spacing, and how he says every feet is important. One of the Clippers' strengths has always been finding an open man through a bunch of arms, and that's cause we had some of the best passers in the game at nearly every position, which I think it's related to both the importance of a feet or two of space, and the fact that we take and make the most "bad" shots.

[Wammy Giveaway]

You give them crap role players and a crap draft pick for a top 10 player. Do you guys even think before you propose things?

It worked for Danny Ainge in 2007. Why do you think it would fail now?

[mattd13]

first, the pacers are not trading George for anything we would give up. the clips are not getting rid dj when he is on the verge of becoming a real force for a championship type team. we have the talent to win it if doc can put the right people at the right time on the floor. the first team with the addition of paul is a win it all group. the challenge is to get the second team right. with no injuries this team can win it all as is.

[illastrate]

To be honest, I'm watching the Paul George situation closely, it points out to the beginning of a disgruntled star, and he's a childhood Clippers fan. Just wishful thinking for now, but DJ + something for George would be a good alternative to blowing it up, if he ever becomes available.

As Paul George is a superstar, him to the Clippers would be a savior-type of move. He's played with Lance Stephenson before; maybe he can patch things up and calm him down. Secondly, he can play both the shooting guard and small forward positions, preserving Paul Pierce's spot of small forward (or you can shift Blake Griffin to small forward to assume point forward duties and put Pierce in his power forward spot).

Most importantly, George gives the Clippers a True Big 3 with Paul-George-Griffin. Pierce makes them a Fantastic 4 (Paul-George-Pierce-Griffin). If DJ makes the All Star game this year, they become a Furious 5. If I'm correct, no team in NBA history has ever won a championship with five superstars on the starting lineup (Pierce has a Finals MVP, preserving his superstar status).

But George will be costly. $17.1 million as of this posting. His would be a farm trade. And remember: the Celtics farm trade of Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen gave Doc Rivers his first championship in 2008. Doc is desperately trying to re-create how he won his first title. Having Pierce ensures Doc a conference finals appearance. But what are the odds that a championship is just a superstar trade away. And you can do it without breaking up the core.

Here's the proposed package:

J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford, C.J. Wilcox, Cole Aldrich, Wesley Johnson, Branden Dawson, 2016 draft pick (cash optional)

Since the Clippers have no hard cap because they are above the tax threshold, they can get new players to sign at the veteran's minimum. All the Clips have to do is pay luxury tax. They'll lose Redick and Crawford, but it's all about the Paul-Griffin-Jordan tandem now. You don't lose Pierce, Stephenson, or Doc's son Austin. You'll have to rebuild on the fly, and in a week might I add for I could see this as a deadline deal, or even during the All Star break. But right now, it's all about winning and erasing the 3-1 collapse of last year.

What a turnaround that would be if they could get Paul George.

They would laugh at your face and hang up the phone at that package.

You give them crap role players and a crap draft pick for a top 10 player. Do you guys even think before you propose things?

Don't bunch us in as "you guys". This is just Wammy with another one of his ridiculous proposals.

[Ranma]

I'm not opposed to eventually trading away DJ, but I seriously doubt that Doc would ever trade for Paul George as he supposedly got a stripper pregnant while dating his daughter. I think Callie Rivers has since dated Kyrie Irving (not sure if they're still together nor do I really care), who I believe is friends with George, so I guess anything is possible, but I don't see it.

[nickhx2]

yeah forgot about that lol

definitely not happening