Peaks Project #19

[Dr Positivity]

Maybe I've missed something, but why Ewing 1990 over say..these seasons by two-way bigs:

-2011/09 Dwight
-2015 Davis
-2000 Mourning

Dwight and Zo aren't on his level offensively and Davis is so far behind all of these guys defensively that I don't see him as a serious candidate until Zo and Dwight are off the board. He's on the Gilmore/McHale level IMO (better than them both but on that level).

Fair enough w.r.t Davis, but what exactly makes Dwight worse offensively than Ewing?

Laugh at his post game all you want, but peak Dwight's scoring prowess has proven to be far more resilient than Ewing's. In exchange for slightly less volume (36.2 vs 32.0 per 100), Dwight is:

- Appreciably more efficient (61.6% vs 59.9% TS)
- Draws significantly more fouls (12 FTA vs 8 FTA)
- Is a much better offensive rebounder, without sacrificing defensive rebounds, in an era where crashing O-boards is less encouraged
- Is better attracting "gravity" off-ball due to being a massive threat off the PnR with his length, size and athleticism

This is probably a good factor in why the ORL with Dwight have always been clearly better offensive teams than NYK with Ewing..

Although Dwight has higher TS%, Ewing is less turnover prone which is reflected in his edge in ORTG at 115 to 113. I am more unimpressed by Dwight's 2011 passing numbers than Ewing. Not only are his numbers bad on their own at 1.3 assists per 36 minutes compared to Ewing at 2.1 per 36 but I think the context matters. I said before I'd have liked to see Ewing's passing numbers if he was playing on a team like 94 Rockets with the shooters on the outside waiting for his passes. Well the 2011 Magic are the opposite of that context. With Jameer, Redick, JRich, Ryno, Hedo, Lewis, Pietrus, Vince, etc. outside of Bass and Gortat their entire supporting cast is guys waiting to hit a spot up 3. They are probably the all time 3pt shooters around a star big man supporting cast and true inside out big like Hakeem or Shaq would've had a field day on that roster assists wise. Dwight's assist numbers are pretty much pathetic in that context. In addition to that Dwight playing with all that spacing is likely to affect his scoring numbers/efficiency also

As for "gravity" - are we sure Ewing wasn't drawing more doubles? I'm not sure. I also believe that part of Ewing's gravity is the spacing of his midrange jumper that Dwight doesn't have. As for Dwight - I remember what I took from the 2010 ECF is that Boston had the perfect gameplan against the Magic by letting Dwight get his and covering the 3pt shooters. And that that it was surprising it took the league so long to figure out that's how you should play the SVG Magic. The next year Dwight averages the most PPG of his career but the Magic offense overall falls off. His assist numbers go down. So while I can't say I was watching the Magic enough in that era to know for sure, is it possible the league figure out how to defend the SVG Magic by throwing less double teams at Dwight and guarding the shooters more?

Finally the main reason I like Ewing over Dwight offensively is I'm about judging skillsets more than numbers in the context of building a team, and Ewing's just flat out impresses me more in terms of post polish, shooting from the outside and more capable passing compared to Dwight's game, and if I'm picking one for me team I'd be happy to not have to worry about hack a Dwight also. And although Dwight's results defensively in ORL are amazing for that roster, if I didn't know those team results I'd have guessed Ewing is better defender as the more focused and disciplined player. I treat team offense and defense ranks as less important than everyone else does apparently because I see both sides as connected because of players needing to decide which side to spend their energy on, and I'm confident there have been situations like Flip Saunders system making the Wolves offense better than their talent and their defense worse than a team with KG should be, or the opposite for defense first coaches like Thibs and Frank Vogel or whatever. In 2011 inexplicably the Andrea Bargnani and DeMar Derozan led Raptors team had a better ORTG than a Chris Paul Hornets team almost the whole season (fell just behind at 20th to the Hornets' 19th after tanking the last few weeks) and my best explanation for how that happened is that Jay Triano was probably the most offense-only coach of this generation, the Raptors finished back to back 30th in DRTG (by a lot, 1.5 DRTG pts behind 29th in 2010, 1.1 pts behind in 2011) but had better offensive results than they should've including 5th in ORTG in 2010 which sometimes people use as an example of how good Chris Bosh was and then a league average offense until the last few weeks in 2011 with no talent. Meanwhile the Hornets were near last in pace and had some signs of a defensively orientated team. Another example is I think the Warriors last year had the best defensive roster since the Big Ben Pistons but they had worse DRTGs than some recent seasons like Bulls and Pacers because they were way more of an offensively orientated team system wise. To me Draymond and Bogut is as much top end defense as George/Hibbert or Noah/Deng and then I don't see those teams having an Iggy or the defensive depth after that the Warriors did. I care about the net W/L more than the offensive vs defensive split almost all of the time

[MyUniBroDavis]

Paul vs. Nash (my semi-rambling 2c)

fwiw, I’m going with ‘07 as Nash’s peak (I don’t think that one really warrants explanation). I might go somewhat against the grain and go with ‘15 as Chris Paul’s peak, though.

It’s true that Paul doesn’t have the same lift, explosiveness, or motor that he had in ‘08 or ‘09, and as consequence you can see he gets to the rim or the line much less frequently. But I feel he’s made up for that (offensively) with much improved shooting, especially from the mid-range (although he’s also significantly better from 3pt range and the FT-line, too---up to basically 40 and 90 from those places). Meanwhile defensively he’s significantly better in recent years than he was in ‘08 (or ‘09). Further, there appears to be bit of disconnect between his box/advanced numbers and all impact indicators in ‘08 or ‘09; this is not the case in recent years, though. So in whatever way----or maybe it’s purely situational, idk----he appears to have found a certain synergy with his team that he perhaps didn’t have in New Orleans. So anyway, that’s why I’m going with ‘15 as his peak.

Scoring
In the rs: Nash’s 26.4 pts/100 @ +11.3% rTS trumps Paul’s 27.7 pts/100 @ +6.2% rTS, rather easily. But Paul scaled up in both volume and efficiency in the playoffs (whereas Nash did not). Though fwiw, I don’t think it’s necessarily for lack of ability to do so. We have seen Nash scale up on an as needed basis (the Mavs series in ‘05); I know that was in a separate year, but I feel Nash was more or less the same player in ‘05-’07 (minute differences), so I still feel that’s a valid representation of what he COULD do. He would simply take what the defense gave.
I do think Paul has a more consistent history of scaling up in volume and/or efficiency in the playoffs, though, for what that’s worth.
My eye test tells me peak Nash was more capable of scoring moderate-high volume at elite (or hyper-elite) efficiency, though I don’t know precisely what it would look like if his playmaking were somewhat mitigated by a crappy offensive supporting cast, wherein he’d be forced (presumably) to take on more scoring volume.
But he just had a knack for wrapping defenses around his finger, and getting them to do what he wanted them to. Peak Nash was better at getting to the rim than ‘15 Paul, and shot better from most locations (was -1.9% in the 10-16 ft range, and actually -0.1% from the FT-line that year); but was better at the rim, better from 3-10 ft, and then quite a lot better from 16-23 ft and 3pt range.
Overall it seems very close to a wash, though the rs statline (sample size) and my eye-test persuade me to give Nash the tiniest edge as a scorer.

Passing/Play-making/Court General
This too is extremely close. Few stats to note….
Nash (rs): 16.5 ast/100 with 5.4 tov/100.
Paul (rs): 14.9 ast/100 with 3.4 tov/100.
Above I’d noted how Paul’s scoring scaled up in the post season; however, the opposite happened to his assist numbers. Meanwhile, though we didn’t see Nash’s scoring scale up at all in the playoffs, we DID see his assists go up (again: he takes what the defense gives).
Nash (playoffs): 18.0 ast/100 with 5.9 tov/100.
Paul (playoffs): 11.5 ast/100 with 2.8 tov/100.
Eye-test tells me Nash is better. Maybe it’s because he’s more flashy, idk; but there’s no doubt he saw angles most PG’s can’t see (or at least don’t dare try). He could work the pnr/pnp like no one else (save maybe Stockton). And his ability to keep his dribble alive in traffic or along the baseline, just waiting for the D to make the slightest error, and then he’d make them pay. It was remarkable.
I do think there’s some truth to what (Spaceman??) had said about his being more turnover-prone was a byproduct of his more free-flowing style which ultimately led to more very high% attempts (for someone).

otoh, let’s not overlook that even a possession that ends in a terrible low% 2pt shot attempt (let’s say...one that’s only falling one time out of three) is still a significantly better possession than one that ends in a turnover. So the couple fewer turnovers that Paul will commit per 100 have some relevance.

Paul does seem like a bit more of a ball-stopper at times, fwiw. And while I don’t want to suggest that fast pace for the sake of pace is always good, I will say I think you’re more likely to tire the opposing defense down (as a unit) with a faster pace (which Nash seems to thrive the most in).

Some team-oriented indicators of offensive generalship….
Certainly it seems that Nash’s brand of offensive leadership has the better track-record of success.
In ‘05 high anchors an historic great team offense (+8.4 rORTG). Yeah, great offensive supporting cast: Amar’e, Marion, Joe Johnson, as well as some guys like Quentin Richardson and Barbosa to help spread the floor. But is that so much better offensively than Griffin, Redick, Crawford, with Barnes to help spread the floor and DeAndre to toss oops to and clean up on the offensive glass for you?
In ‘06, Stoudemire misses the entire season, Joe Johnson is gone, replaced with Raja Bell (great spot-up shooter, big step down from Johnson offensively in all other ways), Richardson replaced with Boris Diaw. Kurt Thomas (defense, rebounding) now the primary center. Did get a couple more shooters in James Jones and Eddie House on board. Still, with losing Stoudemire and Johnson, Nash still helps anchor a +5.3 rORTG team.
‘07, Stoudemire comes back (with just a little rust), and we’re back to +7.4 rORTG, which is better than any offense Paul’s ever anchored.
Impact studies have always been very flattering, individually, to Nash’s offense.
Paul just had the all-time (for years we have the data) highest offensive on/off; but to be fair, that’s heavily influenced by the fact that the Clippers had little depth (perhaps especially at PG).

So anyway, I’m inclined to give Nash the marginal edge for playmaking and floor general duties.


Overall Offensively….
The margin isn’t much, but almost across the board I’ve been inclined to give the marginal edge to Nash. He is somewhat of a genius talent (in an all-time sense) offensively. So overall, I have to give him a small edge as the better offensive player.

But then there’s defense…..and I don’t know what this gets overlooked a lot when comparing PG’s. Yeah, they don’t have as much capacity to influence the game on that end (so let’s just ignore it?....)
Well, I’m not going to ignore it. Paul is the better defender, handily (in the year I’m going with as his peak), and I don’t think I need to qualify that statement. To me, that gives him the tiny edge on Nash overall.
This perhaps will even be reflected in RAPM studies (one of the big statistical factors upon which Nash’s vaunted reputation is built).
While Nash has many of the all-time highest non-scaled PI ORAPM numbers (like between 7.5 and 8.0) let’s not overlook that he’s then often like -1.5 DRAPM…...so his combined PI RAPM in those years was still only around +6.0 to 6.5.
I’m waiting for a reliable source to put out the full season RAPM splits for ‘15, but I suspect we’ll see Paul is something like +5.5 or so ORAPM, and then +1.5 DRAPM (for around +7.0 or so overall; which is what was seen in ‘14, fwiw).

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AAAUkNkDUG0KWeewPZbnwS2ja?dl=0

this is from JE in the ABPR forum

You were pretty much right, but Using his peak as 07, Nash had a slightly higher rapm than any CP3 season. (his defense that year was only slightly below average)

as for scoring when needed, I guess one thing we could look at is clutch stats.
Yes, the term "clutch" is overused, but it is against much better defense, so they might be force to go one on one or something at this point.

For nash, Ill use 2005-2012 (he did have a horrible year in 2011 for clutch shooting though)
For Paul, Ill use 2008-2015

Number on the middle represents 3 pointers.
last 5 minutes, +- 5

Paul

08 32/64 6/15 26/49
09 43/88 3/9 40/79
10 34/67 5/12 29/55
11 34/86 4/16 30/70
12 50/114 5/24 45/90
13 35/68 2/13 33/55
14 32/79 7/19 25/60
15 28/84 5/27 23/47

OVR 288/650 43/135 245/505

Nash

04 23/65 5/20 18/45
05 29/65 10/18 19/47
06 42/100 15/41 27/59
07 38/81 13/36 25/45
08 38/76 19/37 19/39
09 23/50 8/23 15/27
10 43/90 13/38 30/52
11 29/79 6/25 23/54
12 12/23 3/8 9/15


OVR 277/629 92/246 185/383



I used a horrible calculator to get the overall, so it might be (and tbh, seems) a bit off.


But what I take from this is, while Paul has an edge in volume, I would take Nash's numbers

It seems like something happened when Paul became a clipper according to this.

Again, just something to add. might not be relevant.

[E-Balla]

Maybe I've missed something, but why Ewing 1990 over say..these seasons by two-way bigs:

-2011/09 Dwight
-2015 Davis
-2000 Mourning

Dwight and Zo aren't on his level offensively and Davis is so far behind all of these guys defensively that I don't see him as a serious candidate until Zo and Dwight are off the board. He's on the Gilmore/McHale level IMO (better than them both but on that level).

Fair enough w.r.t Davis, but what exactly makes Dwight worse offensively than Ewing?

Laugh at his post game all you want, but peak Dwight's scoring prowess has proven to be far more resilient than Ewing's. In exchange for slightly less volume (36.2 vs 32.0 per 100), Dwight is:

- Appreciably more efficient (61.6% vs 59.9% TS)
- Draws significantly more fouls (12 FTA vs 8 FTA)
- Is a much better offensive rebounder, without sacrificing defensive rebounds, in an era where crashing O-boards is less encouraged
- Is better attracting "gravity" off-ball due to being a massive threat off the PnR with his length, size and athleticism

This is probably a good factor in why the ORL with Dwight have always been clearly better offensive teams than NYK with Ewing..

Mufasa covered most of what I had to say on this but I want to add a few other things:

- A 4.2 points per 100 difference is massive. For example Lebron in 09 is exactly 4.2 pp100 over Ewing in 90. Plus Ewing and the Knicks played at the same pace the Warriors did this past season and no one made per 100 adjustments. I think people really overestimate the effect pace had on top scorers. It might've given them an extra 2 ppg but that would still leave Ewing at 27 ppg vs Dwight at 23 ppg which is a large difference.

- There's an over reliance on team success in this project. Yeah maybe Orlando outperformed NY because Dwight had more gravity or maybe they outperformed them because in the seasons they outperformed the 90 Knicks because they had Shard, Vince, and Jameer who were all better offensive options than any non Pat Knick. When Dwight had little to work with in 11 his offense was worse than the Knicks.

[eminence]

1st Ballot: Chris Paul 07-08: Why '08 over '15? I think the defensive gap between the two seasons is a bit overstated, Paul was still a 2nd team all defense player that year and one of the most disruptive PGs in the league, was great at turning other teams over. Offensively I think he was more explosive and that led to more direct results. Played excellently in the playoffs (led the league in PER, WS/48, and BPM). Was a bit more capable of carrying the scoring load in his younger years as a direct result of his superior athleticism.

2nd Ballot: Jerry West 65-66: Might have appeared earlier on my list if he didn't have a penchant for missing so many games. Best combo of durability and peak in '66. Didn't watch him play live so can't comment too much, but his defensive reputation surpasses pretty much every other perimeter player.

3rd Ballot: Kevin Durant 13-14: Someone (forgot who) showed some defensive things on KD that caused me to bump him up a bit. I don't believe he's quite as good as those numbers indicated, but there is something to them as well. Playoff "struggles" drop him a bit too. One of the best scoring seasons of all time, combined with great gravity on offense. His individual play making leaves something to be desired when I compare him to other wings who've gotten in so far though (eg Wade).

HM: Ewing, Kobe, Moses, McGrady in some order

[trex_8063]

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AAAUkNkDUG0KWeewPZbnwS2ja?dl=0

this is from JE in the ABPR forum

Yeah, I was aware of this data set. I forget the description of method, but the publisher used a formula whose result was aimed at approximating PI RAPM, but he emphasized that it's not exactly RAPM.

iirc, he also said it was heavily reliant on or derived from the TWO prior years, which is why we see some spurious results here and there, such as:

*Kobe Bryant showing up as +0.18, despite fact he was playing terrible in the scant 41 games he played between '14 and '15 (but since we're still drawing some of the result from '13, when he was still good.....)
**Ray Allen and Metta World Peace both have a value listed even though neither has played in the league since '14.
***Rasheed Wallace, Luke Walton, Marcus Camby, and Jerry Stackhouse all have a value listed even though none of them have played since '13.
Etc etc....

You were pretty much right, but Using his peak as 07, Nash had a slightly higher rapm than any CP3 season. (his defense that year was only slightly below average)

Source?
shutupandjam lists '07 Nash as +4.4 combined PI RAPM (-1.7 DRAPM).
Paul has been above that from '11-'14 (and presumably will be again in '15, when the data is released).

Even via Doc's scaled RAPM (which only goes up to '12), '12 CP3 was above '07 Nash, and----based on his unscaled RAPM scores----it's likely that '13-'15 scaled RAPM's would all exceed '07 Nash, too.

[MyUniBroDavis]

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AAAUkNkDUG0KWeewPZbnwS2ja?dl=0

this is from JE in the ABPR forum

Yeah, I was aware of this data set. I forget the description of method, but the publisher used a formula whose result was aimed at approximating PI RAPM, but he emphasized that it's not exactly RAPM.

iirc, he also said it was heavily reliant on or derived from the TWO prior years, which is why we see some spurious results here and there, such as:

*Kobe Bryant showing up as +0.18, despite fact he was playing terrible in the scant 41 games he played between '14 and '15 (but since we're still drawing some of the result from '13, when he was still good.....)
**Ray Allen and Metta World Peace both have a value listed even though neither has played in the league since '14.
***Rasheed Wallace, Luke Walton, Marcus Camby, and Jerry Stackhouse all have a value listed even though none of them have played since '13.
Etc etc....

You were pretty much right, but Using his peak as 07, Nash had a slightly higher rapm than any CP3 season. (his defense that year was only slightly below average)

Source?
shutupandjam lists '07 Nash as +4.4 PI ORAPM (and -1.7 DRAPM).
Paul has been above that from '11-'14 (and presumably will be again in '15, when the data is released).

Even via Doc's scaled RAPM (which only goes up to '12), '12 CP3 was above '07 Nash, and----based on his unscaled RAPM scores----it's likely that '13-'15 scaled RAPM's would all exceed '07 Nash, too.

Well now I feel like an idiot lol.
The source was the link that is apparently false.

[Clyde Frazier]

Maybe I've missed something, but why Ewing 1990 over say..these seasons by two-way bigs:

-2011/09 Dwight
-2015 Davis
-2000 Mourning

Dwight and Zo aren't on his level offensively and Davis is so far behind all of these guys defensively that I don't see him as a serious candidate until Zo and Dwight are off the board. He's on the Gilmore/McHale level IMO (better than them both but on that level).

Fair enough w.r.t Davis, but what exactly makes Dwight worse offensively than Ewing?

Laugh at his post game all you want, but peak Dwight's scoring prowess has proven to be far more resilient than Ewing's. In exchange for slightly less volume (36.2 vs 32.0 per 100), Dwight is:

- Appreciably more efficient (61.6% vs 59.9% TS)
- Draws significantly more fouls (12 FTA vs 8 FTA)
- Is a much better offensive rebounder, without sacrificing defensive rebounds, in an era where crashing O-boards is less encouraged
- Is better attracting "gravity" off-ball due to being a massive threat off the PnR with his length, size and athleticism

This is probably a good factor in why the ORL with Dwight have always been clearly better offensive teams than NYK with Ewing..

The tone of your response really is coming off as overly critical of ewing. This isn’t specific to 90 ewing, but what I wrote here about him in the top 100 project still applies:

He came up in one of the best eras for centers the game has ever seen. There are the obvious all time greats such as hakeem, robinson, and towards the later part of his career shaq. Then you had his georgetown counterparts in mutombo and mourning as well as guys like parish, divac, willis, smits, sabonis, daugherty, etc. On top of competing with these guys for accolades like all NBA and all defensive team, he had the tall task of being the focal point on offense going up against them on a regular basis.

Bottom line, he faced far tougher competition on a nightly basis compared to dwight. That matters when comparing the two. Not to mention he didn’t have the luxury of playing with guys as offensively gifted as jameer, hedo and lewis. It was the story of his career, and it gets pushed under the rug way too much when evaluating him. I haven’t even voted for ewing yet, but I would pretty clearly take him over 2011 dwight, who I also value highly.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #27:

Tracy McGrady - 9
Patrick Ewing - 9
Kevin Durant - 7
Jerry West - 6
Kobe Bryant - 5
Chris Paul - 4
Moses Malone - 1
Karl Malone - 1

Only 7 ballots in; looking to shut this thread down by late this evening guys.

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[theonlyclutch]

Final Ballot:

1st Ballot - 2014 Durant

2nd Ballot - 1966 Jerry West

3rd Ballot - 2015 Chris Paul

Reason - Combination of great playmaking, super deadly jumper and BBIQ combine to get massive net impact on the team, they were performing at Nash on-court SSOL levels with him on court and collapse with him off it.

[SideshowBob]

Ballot

17. West 68 +6.75 (+5.75 O/+1.00 D)

18. Dirk 11 +5.75 (+5.75 O/+0.00 D)

19. Oscar 64 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

20. Barkley 90 +5.75 (+6.00 O/-0.25 D)

(tie) 21. Kobe 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

(tie) 22. Paul 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

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Don't have time to get into discussion ATM, but if the thread is still running in the evening then I'll chime in/expand.

[ceiling raiser]

20. Barkley 90 +5.75 (+6.00 O/-0.25 D)

What would be your off/def splits for Chuck in 89, 93?

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Jerry West 1966
2nd ballot - Moses Malone 1983
3rd ballot - Patrick Ewing 1990

I will vote for them as long as they will make the spots. Jerry is criminaly underrated in my opinion. I don't think there is a big difference between him and Wade (I have him over Wade to be fair), not to mention that he is clearly better overall player than Curry. While you can make a case for Curry as a better offensive player (West is all time great offensive anchor, don't forget about it), you shouldn't ignore enormous difference on defense. West was all-time great defender, one of the best help defender ever (at his position at least), Curry is only average. People take Wade over Curry because of his defense, but ignore West. That's just ridicoulus...

[SideshowBob]

20. Barkley 90 +5.75 (+6.00 O/-0.25 D)

What would be your off/def splits for Chuck in 89, 93?

89 Similar offense, slightly weaker defense so like 6/-1 and 93 slightly down offense and similar defense, 5.75/-.5. 91 about the same as 90. But I haven't taken a close look at Barkley in a few years, so this is how I evaluated him a while back.

[Quotatious]

#1 - Tracy McGrady '03
#2 - Patrick Ewing '90
#3 - Moses Malone '83

I've already explained my picks in the previous thread, and I don't have much time right now, so I'll just say this - McGrady is #1 because he has the most impressive statistical peak available, he was a very complete player (could've been better defensively, in other circumstances - that is, if he played on a stronger team), incredible scorer, extremely effective playmaker, carried a horrible team to the playoffs, and performed pretty well against one of the best defenses in the league, once he got there.

McGrady over Ewing because great offense beats great defense, and T-Mac was easily better offensively. Also, much more dominant statistically, and a little more complete skill-set (at least if we can try to compare a wing to centers, in terms of skillset...which is not a natural comparison, to say the least). Very comparable in the playoffs, and very comparable portability, too.

Ewing over Moses because of a slightly more complete skillset (better scorer, defender and passer), and about equal numbers, as well as a very similar level of playoff performance.

[drza]

Vote:
1990 Patrick Ewing
2008 Kobe Bryant
1966 Jerry West

HM: 2003 TMac

Same order I've been voting, though I'm still not completely set in my voting...I actually feel like any of this group of 4 could be worth the top slot here. With Ewing, if I'm convinced that he's near the peak of his defensive powers here, he should be reasonably in the +5 to +6 range on defense (using Doc MJ's normalized RAPM scale as a base; for reference Duncan (+6.78), Robinson post '97 (+6.78), Ben Wallace (+6.8) and Zo Mouning post 97 (~+7) all peaked on defense around +7 on that scale, so peak Ewing should at least be within shouting distance of that). Meanwhile, high-volume/efficiency scoring bigs that aren't big assist men (using Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire as estimate models) tended to peak around + 3 to +4. Thus, I think +8 to +9 is a reasonable estimate for peak Ewing on this scale. Peak Kobe was +8.1 for a couple of seasons in a row. West is harder to predict, and based on his starring in ElGee's WOWY studies it's possible that he could have been even higher on that scale. Hard to tell.

Anyway, for this round, this is my voting order. I'm really skimming the surface over the last week or two just due to schedule, but I'm hoping that at some point I'll get the time to really start digging deeper in these comps again.

[Owly]

McGrady is #1 because he has the most impressive statistical peak available

I would think that that's been Paul since Robinson went in.

PER, WS/48, BPM, WARP
Paul: 29.96, [b]0.2925, 11.2, 25.6
McGrady: 30.27, 0.2617, 9.7, ?

Durant, Barkley and Karl Malone are all at least within arguing distance of McGrady on the more recognised stats (PER, WS/48 -- I don't have the others to hand -- and may not be available in all cases), though one might argue that WS/48 is penalising McGrady for mediocre team performance that has more to do with a dreadful supporting cast than his performance. Anyhow Durant certainly has a case.

[GSP]

Ballot

17. West 68 +6.75 (+5.75 O/+1.00 D)

18. Dirk 11 +5.75 (+5.75 O/+0.00 D)

19. Oscar 64 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

20. Barkley 90 +5.75 (+6.00 O/-0.25 D)

(tie) 21. Kobe 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

(tie) 22. Paul 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

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Don't have time to get into discussion ATM, but if the thread is still running in the evening then I'll chime in/expand.

Can you expound on 08 for Cp3s peak if u dont mind? Is it similar reasoning for 09/10 Lebron over 13? BTW i mean in comparison to like 15 Cp3

[eminence]

Ballot

17. West 68 +6.75 (+5.75 O/+1.00 D)

18. Dirk 11 +5.75 (+5.75 O/+0.00 D)

19. Oscar 64 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

20. Barkley 90 +5.75 (+6.00 O/-0.25 D)

(tie) 21. Kobe 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

(tie) 22. Paul 08 +5.75 (+5.50 O/+0.25 D)

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Don't have time to get into discussion ATM, but if the thread is still running in the evening then I'll chime in/expand.

Can you expound on 08 for Cp3s peak if u dont mind? Is it similar reasoning for 09/10 Lebron over 13? BTW i mean in comparison to like 15 Cp3

My quick take on the two CP3 seasons and why I go '08. I'd say the reasoning is pretty similar to Lebron's situation. For my personal rankings I don't like ranking by skill set and prefer ranking by actual production. What we saw on the court from CP3 in '08 was a lot higher motor than what we see now. One of the biggest criticisms of Paul's current game is that he doesn't take over enough and I think he used to do it a lot more and was better at it (his clutch numbers from '08 are quite good - 82games). The concerns with taking '08 Paul (and I have them too) are with his defense and just in general a less well rounded offensive approach. I feel both are a bit overstated, he was less sound defensively but still incredibly disruptive (remember the 8 steal game against Nash?). Offensively I think he's become marginally better in the midrange and from deep, but at the cost of getting to the rim and his foul drawing has gone down a bit as well.

[RebelWithACause]

PG ballot:
1. Nash
2. Penny
3. Paul
4. Baron

Wing ballot:
1. West
2. Kobe
3. McGrady
4. Durant

Big men ballot:
1. Ewing
2. Barkley

That's my ballot going forward position wise.


My overall ballot going forward:

1. West 1966
2. Kobe 2008
3. Nash 2005
4. McGrady 2003
5. Penny 1996
6. Durant 2014
7. Paul 2008 or 2015
8. Ewing 1990

Hope to chime in later.

[mischievous]

When do you guys think it will be time to take a look at peak Macadoo? I don't think his peak would make my top 25, but top 30 seems plausible.