Peaks Project #20

[trex_8063]

RealGM Greatest Player Peaks of All-Time List
1. Michael Jordan ('91---unanimous)
2. Shaquille O'Neal ('00---unanimous)
3. Lebron James ('13---non-unanimous ('09, '12))
4. Wilt Chamberlain ('67---non-unanimous ('64))
5. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar ('77---non-unanimous ('71, '72))
6. Hakeem Olajuwon ('94---non-unanimous ('93))
7. Tim Duncan ('03---non-unanimous ('02))
8. Kevin Garnett ('04---unanimous)
9. Bill Russell ('65---non-unanimous ('62, '64))
10. Magic Johnson ('87---unanimous)
11. Larry Bird ('86---non-unanimous ('87, '88))
12. David Robinson ('95---non-unanimous ('94, '96))
13. Bill Walton ('77---unanimous)
14. Julius Erving ('76---unanimous)
15. Oscar Robertson ('64---non-unanimous ('63))
16. Dwyane Wade ('09---non-unanimous ('06, '10))
17. Stephen Curry ('15---unanimous)
18. Dirk Nowitzki ('11---non-unanimous ('06))
19. Jerry West ('66---non-unanimous ('68, '69))
20. ????




Target stop time for this thread will be Thursday morning.

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[eminence]

From last thread, could someone who picked '68 or '69 for West explain that? Seems odd to me, he just missed so many games.

[Dr Spaceman]

From last thread, could someone who picked '68 or '69 for West explain that? Seems odd to me, he just missed so many games.

61 games isn't terribly low, we voted in Walton who played 65. ElGee has done studies and the truth seems to be up to a certain threshold missed games don't have that dramatic an impact on championship odds. 21 games missed might be pushing the envelope, but at the same time West played in every single playoff game and put up a Finals performance that can legitimately hang with the GOATs. West was a better player come 69, and the difference in durability isn't enough to offset that.

[thizznation]

From last thread, could someone who picked '68 or '69 for West explain that? Seems odd to me, he just missed so many games.

61 games isn't terribly low, we voted in Walton who played 65. ElGee has done studies and the truth seems to be up to a certain threshold missed games don't have that dramatic an impact on championship odds. 21 games missed might be pushing the envelope, but at the same time West played in every single playoff game and put up a Finals performance that can legitimately hang with the GOATs. West was a better player come 69, and the difference in durability isn't enough to offset that.

Should we find the 20 worst games out of Kobe's 2008 regular season and remove them as we calculate new averages?

[Dr Spaceman]

From last thread, could someone who picked '68 or '69 for West explain that? Seems odd to me, he just missed so many games.

61 games isn't terribly low, we voted in Walton who played 65. ElGee has done studies and the truth seems to be up to a certain threshold missed games don't have that dramatic an impact on championship odds. 21 games missed might be pushing the envelope, but at the same time West played in every single playoff game and put up a Finals performance that can legitimately hang with the GOATs. West was a better player come 69, and the difference in durability isn't enough to offset that.

Should we find the 20 worst games out of Kobe's 2008 regular season and remove them as we calculate new averages?

Can you explain what you mean?

[Clyde Frazier]

Still going with ewing and barkley for my 1st and 2nd ballots. 3rd is definitely wide open. Will take a closer look at durant, mcgrady, kobe, paul, both malones and nash.

[Texas Chuck]

From last thread, could someone who picked '68 or '69 for West explain that? Seems odd to me, he just missed so many games.

61 games isn't terribly low, we voted in Walton who played 65. ElGee has done studies and the truth seems to be up to a certain threshold missed games don't have that dramatic an impact on championship odds. 21 games missed might be pushing the envelope, but at the same time West played in every single playoff game and put up a Finals performance that can legitimately hang with the GOATs. West was a better player come 69, and the difference in durability isn't enough to offset that.

Should we find the 20 worst games out of Kobe's 2008 regular season and remove them as we calculate new averages?

Really?

Do you honestly think West's averages were helped much(any?) by missing games? And if your answer is additional fatigue for Kobe then isn't the solution to remove the final 21 games Kobe played rather than picking out the worst?

[Dr Positivity]

Ballot 1 - Patrick Ewing 1990

Ballot 2 - Kobe Bryant 2008

Ballot 3 - Kevin Durant 2014

Was between Paul and Durant for my 3rd spot, I favored Durant's most spacing-friendly game

[eminence]

61 games isn't terribly low, we voted in Walton who played 65. ElGee has done studies and the truth seems to be up to a certain threshold missed games don't have that dramatic an impact on championship odds. 21 games missed might be pushing the envelope, but at the same time West played in every single playoff game and put up a Finals performance that can legitimately hang with the GOATs. West was a better player come 69, and the difference in durability isn't enough to offset that.

Should we find the 20 worst games out of Kobe's 2008 regular season and remove them as we calculate new averages?

Really?

Do you honestly think West's averages were helped much(any?) by missing games? And if your answer is additional fatigue for Kobe then isn't the solution to remove the final 21 games Kobe played rather than picking out the worst?

Only somewhat behind the idea, but I believe it's something along the lines of - Kobe even in his worst 21 games still provided value, so to make up for that gap West would have to be solidly better than Kobe during the rest of the games (and that is a considerable chunk ~1/4 of the season).

[Owly]

61 games isn't terribly low, we voted in Walton who played 65. ElGee has done studies and the truth seems to be up to a certain threshold missed games don't have that dramatic an impact on championship odds. 21 games missed might be pushing the envelope, but at the same time West played in every single playoff game and put up a Finals performance that can legitimately hang with the GOATs. West was a better player come 69, and the difference in durability isn't enough to offset that.

Should we find the 20 worst games out of Kobe's 2008 regular season and remove them as we calculate new averages?

Can you explain what you mean?

Thizz's comment is somewhat of a non-sequiter as a quoting response to your comment.

But in terms of what he means it's not unclear. Kobe's 20 worst games in a season would be better than either man's replacement would give (and West had to have a replacement) so why not give Kobe the benefit of wiping his lesser games off the board and go with a 61 game to 61 game comparison.

Now whether this is helpful in terms of: 1) It doesn't engage with your premise that above a certain threshold RS injuries don't matter that much (to title probability, or engage as to whether title probability in this sense is what we should be measuring -- one could argue that when an injury happened is luck and it might just as well have been for the playoffs); and 2) it focuses specifically on Kobe rather than the entire field; I don't know.

Still one gets the point being made.

[RSCD3_]

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Could you do a side by side comparison of Peak Kobe& Durant from a skill perspective using the same categories as you did for lebron?

Please? I would like to see how the variables stack up as I see them in about the same area offensively.

[SideshowBob]

.

Could you do a side by side comparison of Peak Kobe& Durant from a skill perspective using the same categories as you did for lebron?

Please? I would like to see how the variables stack up as I see them in about the same area offensively.

Sure, but I won't get to it till this evening. Durant's next on my ballot anyways after Barkley/Paul/Kobe. What years? 08 and 14?

[RSCD3_]

.

Could you do a side by side comparison of Peak Kobe& Durant from a skill perspective using the same categories as you did for lebron?

Please? I would like to see how the variables stack up as I see them in about the same area offensively.

Sure, but I won't get to it till this evening. Durant's next on my ballot anyways after Barkley/Paul/Kobe. What years? 08 and 14?

I personally prefer 09 but that's more from his playoffs ending on a much better note admittedly. Kobe's 08 finals were pretty bad and I dont want to cut to much slack for an ATG on offense when facing strong defenses

however if you feel 08 is his peak then feel free to use it, I'm sure his skillset wasnt that much different between those two years.

[Texas Chuck]

Only somewhat behind the idea, but I believe it's something along the lines of - Kobe even in his worst 21 games still provided value, so to make up for that gap West would have to be solidly better than Kobe during the rest of the games (and that is a considerable chunk ~1/4 of the season).

Totally agree with this. Don't understand its relationship to averages tho.

[thizznation]

I was saying if we are able to dismiss a huge portion of the season and chalk it up to "it doesn't really matter that much". Then we should be able to manipulate other players stats by removing 20 "meaningless" games that they had during the regular season.

I'm not trying to be factitious or obnoxious by the way. I am just curious about the methodology of being able to punt 20 games of the regular season with very little impact and then extending it to other situations. Such as if a player plays over 60 games, does the impact of those extra games suffer diminishing returns? Did we rank regular season monster stat stuffers to high in previous ranks? These are questions that should be raised in my opinion.

[70sFan]

1st ballot - Moses Malon 1983
2nd ballot - Patrick Ewing 1990
3rd ballot - Charles Barkley/Kevin Durant

I'm undecided with my 3rd choice. Can anybody do a nice analysis of their offensive prodiction? I'm slightly biased to take Barkley, on the other hand Durant had amazing year in 2014...

[thizznation]

Only somewhat behind the idea, but I believe it's something along the lines of - Kobe even in his worst 21 games still provided value, so to make up for that gap West would have to be solidly better than Kobe during the rest of the games (and that is a considerable chunk ~1/4 of the season).

Totally agree with this. Don't understand its relationship to averages tho.

I was trying to say if you went through and found 20 of Kobe Bryant's worst games from 2008, and then calculated new per-game averages based on the totals with the 20 bad games subtracted. He would have inflated stats. It's more difficult to sustain very high level production over a larger sample size than it is a smaller one. Playing half of a great season and then getting injured for the second half protects your per game averages. If you are already playing at your peak, trying to push that peak for 80 games is more difficult than doing it for 60. To average 30 ppg West would have to do it 60 games. Bryant would have to do it 80. Therefor it was more difficult for Kobe to sustain his per game averages because he actually had to do it 25% more often. I admit this is opinionated but that is how I see the issue.

[Witzig-Okashi]

Only somewhat behind the idea, but I believe it's something along the lines of - Kobe even in his worst 21 games still provided value, so to make up for that gap West would have to be solidly better than Kobe during the rest of the games (and that is a considerable chunk ~1/4 of the season).

Totally agree with this. Don't understand its relationship to averages tho.

I was trying to say if you went through and found 20 of Kobe Bryant's worst games from 2008, and then calculated new per-game averages based on the totals with the 20 bad games subtracted. He would have inflated stats. It's more difficult to sustain very high level production over a larger sample size than it is a smaller one. Playing half of a great season and then getting injured for the second half protects your per game averages. If you are already playing at your peak, trying to push that peak for 80 games is more difficult than doing it for 60. To average 30 ppg West would have to do it 60 games. Bryant would have to do it 80. Therefor it was more difficult for Kobe to sustain his per game averages because he actually had to do it 25% more often. I admit this is opinionated but that is how I see the issue.

'

I haven't been able to partake in the discussions here, but I do agree with the sentiments here. 20 games in a gap of numbers played is nothing to look over frivolously. Kind of reminds me of the high SPG Hughes obtained in 2005 when he was named to the All-Defensive team (and later received that huge contract from Cleveland during the next offseason), and he missed around 20, 21 games himself. It's highly unlikely he would have sustained those averages for an entire season. There are exceptions (Camby's high BPG in 2007 was atypical), but instances like that seem to be the exception rather than the rule.

[Texas Chuck]

Totally agree with this. Don't understand its relationship to averages tho.

I was trying to say if you went through and found 20 of Kobe Bryant's worst games from 2008, and then calculated new per-game averages based on the totals with the 20 bad games subtracted. He would have inflated stats. It's more difficult to sustain very high level production over a larger sample size than it is a smaller one. Playing half of a great season and then getting injured for the second half protects your per game averages. If you are already playing at your peak, trying to push that peak for 80 games is more difficult than doing it for 60. To average 30 ppg West would have to do it 60 games. Bryant would have to do it 80. Therefor it was more difficult for Kobe to sustain his per game averages because he actually had to do it 25% more often. I admit this is opinionated but that is how I see the issue.

'

I haven't been able to partake in the discussions here, but I do agree with the sentiments here. 20 games in a gap of numbers played is nothing to look over frivolously. Kind of reminds me of the high SPG Hughes obtained in 2005 when he was named to the All-Defensive team (and later received that huge contract from Cleveland during the next offseason), and he missed around 20, 21 games himself. It's highly unlikely he would have sustained those averages for an entire season. There are exceptions (Camby's high BPG in 2007 was atypical), but instances like that seem to be the exception rather than the rule.

I guess I wasn't clear enough.

missing 20 games is significant (in terms of this discussion anyway--don't want to go down the ElGee championship odds tangent). I think missing 1/4 of a season is a big deal especially when talking about players of this high caliber.

But cherry picking Kobe's worst 20 games doesn't seem like the best way of adjusting for the games West missed. A more accurate way would be to simply remove Kobe's last 21 games and then you have the same sample size without skewing the results.

[trex_8063]

1st ballot - Moses Malon 1983
2nd ballot - Patrick Ewing 1990
3rd ballot - Charles Barkley/Kevin Durant

I'm undecided with my 3rd choice. Can anybody do a nice analysis of their offensive prodiction? I'm slightly biased to take Barkley, on the other hand Durant had amazing year in 2014...

Which year of Barkley are you going with for his peak?
Because as I'd gone into a bit a couple threads back, I think there's a large difference (from a pure-scoring standpoint) between '90 and '93.