drza wrote:Vote:
1990 Patrick Ewing
2008 Kobe Bryant
2003 Tracy McGrady
With Ewing, if I'm convinced that he's near the peak of his defensive powers here, he should be reasonably in the +5 to +6 range on defense (using Doc MJ's normalized RAPM scale as a base; for reference Duncan (+6.78), Robinson post '97 (+6.78), Ben Wallace (+6.8) and Zo Mouning post 97 (~+7) all peaked on defense around +7 on that scale, so peak Ewing should at least be within shouting distance of that). Meanwhile, high-volume/efficiency scoring bigs that aren't big assist men (using Dwight Howard and Amare Stoudemire as estimate models) tended to peak around + 3 to +4. Thus, I think +8 to +9 is a reasonable estimate for peak Ewing on this scale. Peak Kobe was +8.1 for a couple of seasons in a row. McGrady is a bit harder to gauge because Englemann's RAPm from 2002 was incomplete and 2003 was referenced to 2003, but his raw net on/off and his old-school 2002-2004 APM were both very strong so he's probably in the same range as Kobe on that scale. As far as Kobe vs Kevin Durant...
Repost: Kevin Durant vs. Kobe Bryant
I've been seeing more votes for Durant lately, but I just don't think he's as good as some of the others still left on the board, starting with Kobe. I made a Durant '14 vs Kobe post back in April of 2014, before we knew that his playoffs that season were going to be less than impressive (relatively speaking). I emphasize that, because my arguments were that Durant after the regular season alone wasn't as good as peak Kobe. And after the postseason, if anything, that feeling got stronger.
No, Durant hasn't surpassed Kobe yet. The fact that such a consensus believes that he has, IMO, is a symptom of how over-reliant we have become on individual scoring efficiency as a measure of player performance. Individual scoring efficiency is important, and to be as absurdly efficient as Durant at such a high volume is more impressive still. But there are other aspects to the game, and I don't think they're given enough weight in many of the discussions on this board.
Part of the reason that individual scoring efficiency is so focused upon is that every "advanced" box score metric relies heavily on it. But since they have different names, people often site them as if they are giving different results. For example, Durant's advantages in TS%, PER, Offensive Rating and Win Shares all tie strongly to Durant's scoring efficiency advantage. Thus, citing each of them individually doesn't strengthen the case much IMO, since it's repetitive.
So if we stipulate that Durant is more efficient as a scorer, what does the rest of the comparison look like? I'd say that peak Kobe was still more gifted at initiating and running the team offense, that he could act as the lead guard and offensive focal point to a larger degree than Durant. I'd say that Kobe was the more gifted passer (when he chose to do so), and the better floor general. I'd also say that Kobe was the better 1-on-1 defender, and that his relative weaknesses as a team defender were less negatively impactful from the SG slot than Durant's lack of defensive impact from the 3/4 position on his team.
So, where does that leave us? If I believe that, as someone said earlier in the thread, essentially Durant is the more efficient volume scorer (by a solid margin) but that Kobe might be better at most everything else...how would that translate to who has the bigger impact?
Well, to date, the best measures that we have for impact are the +/- stats. You can't directly compare RAPM values from one season to another, but there are ways to try to normalize the data. The most basic approximation is just to look at the rank order within a given year, but DoctorMJ has come up with a better method that involves normalizing based on how far a player's RAPM value is from the mean (e.g. using standard deviation). DocMJ hasn't calculated for 2014, but I did using the GotBuckets 2014 RAPM list.
If I did it correctly, 2014 Durant's RAPM was 2.44 standard deviations fro mthe mean. This value would put him among the top-50 highest peak seasons measured in this way since 1997, and is a solid score for a first-team All NBA and MVP candidate type performance.
Kobe, on the other hand, had a RAPM value right around that level in 2007. But from 2008 - 2010, Kobe peaked higher with a three-year run right around 2.7 standard deviations from the mean. This time period is often cited now as Kobe's peak (obviously, his peak years could be debated). It includes his MVP and both of his Finals MVP years, and 2008 is the year that was chosen as Kobe's peak in the last RealGM Top 50 peaks project.
Conclusion: If I compare Durant and Kobe by skill sets and across-the-board abilities, I'd say that Durant is clearly the more efficient scorer but Kobe has advantages in other areas. If I try to quantify which had more impact, it appears that Kobe's is still slightly higher than what Durant has accomplished to date. So to this thread, I'd argue that no, Kevin Durant has not yet peaked as high as peak Kobe Bryant.
Im in class right now so I cant really type much.
I recall that Dr MJ said that
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I think the most useful way to look at data like this is to look for the general standard a player could regularly reach, rather than trying to go by peaks, or by tallying totals.
Also, his rapm I hear is kind of skewed because of his earlier years.
Also, the rotations definately skew it a bit.
Ibaka had a +1.5 rating overall, and Nick collision (who is a underrated player) has a +7.7 overall
(ibaka was +0.6 on defense, plus being a bad thing obviously).
As an isolation defender, Durant definitely is better than Kobe. I posted stats earlier, but Durant gave up around 0.5ppp in the isolation. Kobe is an excellent isolation defender, but Durant pretty much was unplayable in that regard
Ill post what I posted before on his defense
I wouldnt really say that he had completely average defense.
He is exceptional as an isolation defender. ( I only have data up to 2/3rds into that season though)
He gave up 0.52 points per possession, good for 4th in the league, including the players who only face those possessions once or twice, meaning that he was probably the best isolation defender in the league at that point.
For comparison, He completely blows Davis, Allen, Iggy, etc out of the water.
And he is also better than people like Draymond and Paul.
He was great at defending the P and R ball handler. gave up 0.52ppp again. that ranks better than
Kawhi, Allen, Draymond, etc.
He was reasonably good at defending the post up. ranked better than Draymond and Davis (0.73 ppp)
was solid at defending the spot up as well.
the only play that he really faced regularly and had trouble defending was off-screen plays.
of the 7 "defendable" plays, he was very good at 2 of them, beyond exceptional at 2 others, and below average at 3 of them. However, the 3 plays that he wasnt good at defending, he was faced with less than 20% of the time.
so in 80% of the plays he "faced" he was solid to exceptional.
Im using a different website for these next stats, since the site I used for the stats above (other than Lebrons ppp stats) came up wierdly for some stats. the ppp for the top of the stats seemed correct though. had a strong correlation with this year, and the site I will use now.
In his seasons, lebron gave up
2010 overall = 0.840 PPP
2011 overall = 0.770 PPP
2012 overall = 0.820 PPP
2013 overall = 0.840 PPP
2014 overall = 0.870 PPP
in those seasons. (0.787 in his legendary 09 season)
in 2014, Durant gave up roughly 0.78ppp (probably rounded down since it was a biased post)
Obviously not the best way to show defense, but I wouldnt call Durant average on defense
He isnt a better defender than lebron obviously, but I feel this is enough to say he was above average.
Looking at just his net rating, it was around +9 on offense.
Consider that, in this rotation
Ibaka was +2.1 on offense, +0.6 on defense
Westbrook was +4.8 on offense, +2.9 on defense
I find westbrook overrated on defense, but I think most would agree he isnt exactly bad in that regard.
(that year at least)
Collision was +7.7 overall. he is a good player, just not that good.
his on-off numbers are skewed because of the rotation.
I think most would agree that Ibaka was an absolute beast defensively in 11-12 right?
his defensive on-off was -2.5.
thats good, but nothing special. but imo, he was special that year defensively. offensively, he wasnt exactly horrible, but his offense net was -3.7. I wouldnt suprised if it was negative, but thats too much.
The rotations skewed his stats. Im not sure of RAPM is measured, but when the rotations are so unbelievably, well, you know, then I believe that even RAPM (which I believe is just adjusting for lineups right?) will be skewed a bit.
as for being a focal point, when westbrook missed 20 something games in a row, Durant lead the thunder to having a 111.9 offensive rating, while maintaining about the same defensive rating.
While westbrook did pretty much the same thing, their defensive rating with wesbtrook was below league average.
With Westbrook and durant, it was 104.77 ish, which, while not top 10, is solid. without him, it was 105.86.
and consider with durant, they faced the warriors thrice, the pelicans twice, the clippers once, the mavs once, houstan once, atlanta once, etc.
. fwiw, I'd also constructed formula founded on Moonbeam's Score+ rating (I called mine "Modified Score+").......'14 Durant is the 2nd-highest MS+ rating on record (just barely behind '88 Barkley, and just barely ahead of '83 Dantley). 
