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How many games will WSH win this season?

Moderators: LyricalRico, nate33, montestewart

How many games will WSH win this season?

Poll ended at Wed Jul 22, 2015 1:12 am

60 or more
0
No votes
55-59
0
No votes
50-54
7
24%
45-49
10
34%
40-44
12
41%
35-39
0
No votes
30-34
0
No votes
25-29
0
No votes
20-24
0
No votes
Less than 20
0
No votes
 
Total votes: 29

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tontoz
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#101 » by tontoz » Sun Oct 11, 2015 12:29 pm

Illmatic12 wrote:
tontoz wrote:Wasn't long ago that people were underrating Porter. Now i think a lot of people are overrating him. He is not a guy who is going to beat his man consistently 1 on 1. Pierce could do that even at his advanced age. Otto is a good off the ball player but he isn't going to scare anyone with his ability off the dribble.

Pierce bailed us out a lot last year. This year the young guys will be on their own trying to finish games.Just look at the top 3 scorers on the other good teams and compare them to ours. Not a pretty picture.

Who bailed us out the year before? The team with Ariza was just as good as the more hyped team with Pierce. .


Ariza was arguably the best player on the team. He averaged 14/6 with a TS of 59% in addition to being the teams best defender.

Going into this season, Wall/Beal/Porter doesn't look worse to me than Wall/Beal/Ariza (better, factoring in Wall/Beal's improvement and Otto's versatility over TA).

We're not going to give Otto the same slow, iso plays we gave to PP. The team is trying to get away from that and produce better offense at the end of games than they have in the past. The Wiz were closing games with two bigs clogging the paint, and Pierce who demanded a high usage and slowed the game down in crunchtime - hence they were very limited in the types of looks they were getting.

The whole idea of going 4-out is that there will be more opportunities/spacing for early offense, open threes, better driving lanes. Wall and Beal are two athletic guards who should be able to get to the FT line in late game situations, penetrate and create open threes, etc. Dudley as a shooter at PF will be a greater offensive threat than Nene in the 4th quarter (remember all his weak, forced layup attempts and awful FTs? That's gone now) Porter might leak out in transition for easy buckets in the 4th quarter, that type of offense simply wasn't available with PP.


The NBA is being taken over by guards. We have two athletic guards who will be able to make things happen late in games. Wall was actually one of the more productive crunchtime players last year (both in scoring and creating offense overall), and playoff/healthy Beal has shown us a lot of good things as a closer and he'll only be enhanced with better driving lanes


Beal is one of the worst guards in the league at running a basic pick and roll. He is also one of the worst midrange shooters.

You have to take into account that other teams will scout our new offense and make adjustments. Witt caught teams off guard in the playoffs by changing the offense. We were a jump shooting team last season and will continue to be one.

How many winning teams have a weaker first option scorer than Wall? We are asking him to be the primary playmaker and primary scorer. That is too much. We need a legit first option scorer. The absence of one is going to be more glaring with Pierce gone.
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#102 » by Illmatic12 » Sun Oct 11, 2015 8:53 pm

tontoz wrote:Ariza was arguably the best player on the team. He averaged 14/6 with a TS of 59% in addition to being the teams best defender.


...

Beal is one of the worst guards in the league at running a basic pick and roll. He is also one of the worst midrange shooters.

You have to take into account that other teams will scout our new offense and make adjustments. Witt caught teams off guard in the playoffs by changing the offense. We were a jump shooting team last season and will continue to be one.

How many winning teams have a weaker first option scorer than Wall? We are asking him to be the primary playmaker and primary scorer. That is too much. We need a legit first option scorer. The absence of one is going to be more glaring with Pierce gone.

Ariza could not create offense at ALL. He couldn't even dribble/pass lol, nor did he have any type of iso skillset that helped us in crunchtime.

How many teams have a more dynamic penetrator/playmaker/shot creating force than Wall? I get it, you look around and see the Melo's, KDs of the league and figure the Wiz won't win games without one of those players. To compete for a championship, sure we would. But we're seeing that modern NBA basketball is simpler than that - to be a good, 50+ win team we don't need Melo. We just need one or two dynamic players who can consistently break down the defense, get to the FT line at the end of games. George Karl's Nuggets won 57 games a few seasons ago without having an 'iso scorer' at the end of games, playing a similar style to what the Wiz want to do this year.

Your assessment of Beal's ability is based on him playing in lineups with little to no spacing, and a system that didn't fit his strengths. This year he's already looking better on the PnR, not sure if you've watched any preseason games but he's been maneuvering picks more and making nice pocket passes to the bigs. That's the direct benefit of changing the offense to give space to our guards.

I don't mind if guys like Gooden, Hump, Gary Neal etc continue to be long jumpshot heavy, face it that's who they are at this point. We just need our main horses (ie Wall and Beal, and possibly Gortat getting fouled on the roll) to up their FT rates. If those guys get to the line a healthy amount this season, all the pieces are in place for us to really take off. The whole idea of this revamped offense is to give them space to do that. Whether or not it happens is up to them, but from a basketball perspective - removing your emotions & sentiments out of it - that's the whole basketball basis behind how Washington could/should be a 50+ win team this year.
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#103 » by Scoobean » Sun Oct 11, 2015 9:13 pm

I think the Wizards get 57 wins this year. I have a feeling that Rookie Kelly Oubre Jr. is really going to have a great Rookie season and will be in the Rookie of the Year talks at the end of the season.
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#104 » by tontoz » Sun Oct 11, 2015 11:12 pm

I don't care what Beal does in preseason. He lit it up in preseason last year.

I base my prediction on what players have actually done, not what i hope they will do. Sure if all the main guys have career years and nobody gets hurt then the Wiz could win 50. I don't see that as very realistic.
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#105 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:38 pm

I agree, tontoz.

I am going with 43 wins.
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#106 » by Chocolate City Jordanaire » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:40 pm

tontoz wrote:
Illmatic12 wrote:
tontoz wrote:Wasn't long ago that people were underrating Porter. Now i think a lot of people are overrating him. He is not a guy who is going to beat his man consistently 1 on 1. Pierce could do that even at his advanced age. Otto is a good off the ball player but he isn't going to scare anyone with his ability off the dribble.

Pierce bailed us out a lot last year. This year the young guys will be on their own trying to finish games.Just look at the top 3 scorers on the other good teams and compare them to ours. Not a pretty picture.

Who bailed us out the year before? The team with Ariza was just as good as the more hyped team with Pierce. .


Ariza was arguably the best player on the team. He averaged 14/6 with a TS of 59% in addition to being the teams best defender.

Going into this season, Wall/Beal/Porter doesn't look worse to me than Wall/Beal/Ariza (better, factoring in Wall/Beal's improvement and Otto's versatility over TA).

We're not going to give Otto the same slow, iso plays we gave to PP. The team is trying to get away from that and produce better offense at the end of games than they have in the past. The Wiz were closing games with two bigs clogging the paint, and Pierce who demanded a high usage and slowed the game down in crunchtime - hence they were very limited in the types of looks they were getting.

The whole idea of going 4-out is that there will be more opportunities/spacing for early offense, open threes, better driving lanes. Wall and Beal are two athletic guards who should be able to get to the FT line in late game situations, penetrate and create open threes, etc. Dudley as a shooter at PF will be a greater offensive threat than Nene in the 4th quarter (remember all his weak, forced layup attempts and awful FTs? That's gone now) Porter might leak out in transition for easy buckets in the 4th quarter, that type of offense simply wasn't available with PP.


The NBA is being taken over by guards. We have two athletic guards who will be able to make things happen late in games. Wall was actually one of the more productive crunchtime players last year (both in scoring and creating offense overall), and playoff/healthy Beal has shown us a lot of good things as a closer and he'll only be enhanced with better driving lanes


Beal is one of the worst guards in the league at running a basic pick and roll. He is also one of the worst midrange shooters.

You have to take into account that other teams will scout our new offense and make adjustments. Witt caught teams off guard in the playoffs by changing the offense. We were a jump shooting team last season and will continue to be one.

How many winning teams have a weaker first option scorer than Wall? We are asking him to be the primary playmaker and primary scorer. That is too much. We need a legit first option scorer. The absence of one is going to be more glaring with Pierce gone.
.

I cannot recall ever agreeing with you more
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Re: How many games will WSH win this season? 

Post#107 » by tontoz » Mon Oct 12, 2015 5:06 pm

Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:I agree, tontoz.

I am going with 43 wins.



This is the second season in a row that we had the same prediction. :lol:

I definitely underestimated Pierce last season.
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