ImageImageImageImage

Magic players assessed by CARMELO

Moderators: ChosenSavior, UCF, Knightro, UCFJayBird, Def Swami, Howard Mass

ezzzp
Head Coach
Posts: 6,425
And1: 3,462
Joined: Aug 25, 2009
 

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#21 » by ezzzp » Tue Oct 13, 2015 7:40 pm

Ezzzp wrote:
I'm pretty sure it means that mathematically their WARP potential peak is higher than what the WARP potential peak of those who got qualified as average starters. This is a prognostication tool and that is a future category not what they are now or have been.

It is also based on their peak WARP potential trajectory, not their mean WARP potential trajectory...what many call a ceiling. Thus the future ceiling of Oladipo in 3 years is higher than the future ceiling of Deng in 3 years.



Neon1 wrote:Did you look at the OTHER names on the "up-and-comer" list? You could make that argument for Oladipo and probably Parker (even though he did nothing of note before he got injured), what I'm saying is that dsrd basically just anointed the up and comer grouping as excellent projection basically just because thats where Oladipo and AG's names happened to have fell.

Theres nobody in their right mind looking at those two groups and saying that being in that group of players is a good thing. Oladipo out like a sore thumb as far as being out of place in there.


Within the context of this specific metric, hitting the specific numbers that triggers the "up-and-coming" category is a good thing.

Based on the mathematical model the players in the "up and comer" category have reached certain benchmark numbers that project a particular (higher) potential ceiling. The "average starters" have checked off other designated specific stat combinations that indicate a lower trajectory - thus lower projected ceiling.
Neon1
RealGM
Posts: 11,085
And1: 1,576
Joined: Dec 24, 2003
Location: The O
       

Re: RE: Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#22 » by Neon1 » Tue Oct 13, 2015 11:53 pm

ezzzp wrote:
Neon1 wrote:
I'm pretty sure it means that mathematically their WARP potential peak is higher than what the WARP potential peak of those who got qualified as average starters. This is a prognostication tool and that is a future category not what they are now or have been.

It is also based on their peak WARP potential trajectory, not their mean WARP potential trajectory...what many call a ceiling. Thus the future ceiling of Oladipo in 3 years is higher than the future ceiling of Deng in 3 years.



Did you look at the OTHER names on the "up-and-comer" list? You could make that argument for Oladipo and probably Parker (even though he did nothing of note before he got injured), what I'm saying is that dsrd basically just anointed the up and comer grouping as excellent projection basically just because thats where Oladipo and AG's names happened to have fell.

Theres nobody in their right mind looking at those two groups and saying that being in that group of players is a good thing. Oladipo out like a sore thumb as far as being out of place in there.


Within the context of this specific metric, hitting the specific numbers that triggers the "up-and-coming" category is a good thing.

Based on the mathematical model the players in the "up and comer" category have reached certain benchmark numbers that project a particular (higher) potential ceiling. The "average starters" have checked off other designated specific stat combinations that indicate a lower trajectory - thus lower projected ceiling.[/quote]

Nobody is answering the question I am asking.

I am asking where are you reading that the "up and comer" label projects as better then "average starter?"

Because I do not see it anywhere, and it seems like the OP just decided on his own that up and comer is defined as projecting as a better then average starter.

I don't see any definition or ranking in this persons model.
A smart coach once said, "Potential just means you're not good enough yet." Playing on potential is like living on air: It's essential, but if thats all you have, you're eventually going to starve.

Twitter: @CleonONE IG: @usaidwhatnah
ezzzp
Head Coach
Posts: 6,425
And1: 3,462
Joined: Aug 25, 2009
 

Re: RE: Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#23 » by ezzzp » Wed Oct 14, 2015 2:43 am

Neon1 wrote:
ezzzp wrote:
Neon1 wrote:
Did you look at the OTHER names on the "up-and-comer" list? You could make that argument for Oladipo and probably Parker (even though he did nothing of note before he got injured), what I'm saying is that dsrd basically just anointed the up and comer grouping as excellent projection basically just because thats where Oladipo and AG's names happened to have fell.

Theres nobody in their right mind looking at those two groups and saying that being in that group of players is a good thing. Oladipo out like a sore thumb as far as being out of place in there.


Within the context of this specific metric, hitting the specific numbers that triggers the "up-and-coming" category is a good thing.

Based on the mathematical model the players in the "up and comer" category have reached certain benchmark numbers that project a particular (higher) potential ceiling. The "average starters" have checked off other designated specific stat combinations that indicate a lower trajectory - thus lower projected ceiling.


Nobody is answering the question I am asking.

I am asking where are you reading that the "up and comer" label projects as better then "average starter?"

Because I do not see it anywhere, and it seems like the OP just decided on his own that up and comer is defined as projecting as a better then average starter.

I don't see any definition or ranking in this persons model.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-predicting-nba-player-career/

It doesn't specifically define their "scrub" - "future MVP" etc categories, but you can look at the WAR range (in particular the peak) combined with the Fine Print #'s + the player comparisons and you'll see how the category hierarchy
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 39,064
And1: 8,909
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#24 » by drsd » Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:14 am

CARMELO is not applied to the team:
Magic preview LINK

CARMELO doesn’t go so far as forecasting a .500 finish — it says Orlando will go something like 37-45 — but our projections do consider the 2015-16 Magic a marked improvement over the team’s recent iterations, perhaps enough so to even make a playoff bid in the mediocre East. While it took several years of relentless losing, the dark clouds of the post-Howard period may finally be clearing in Orlando.


Frankly I see this as a fair assessment and it does add some credit to CARMELO as a forecasting tool.

..


..
User avatar
Furinkazan
General Manager
Posts: 7,981
And1: 3,625
Joined: May 11, 2005
     

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#25 » by Furinkazan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 8:49 am

Meh I thought Carmelo is forcing a trade to the Magic. :D
User avatar
drsd
RealGM
Posts: 39,064
And1: 8,909
Joined: Mar 16, 2003
     

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#26 » by drsd » Thu Oct 22, 2015 5:35 pm

~Snoopy~ wrote:Meh I thought Carmelo is forcing a trade to the Magic. :D


Frankly, today I see Tobias Harris as a better player than Carmelo Anthony.


..
ezzzp
Head Coach
Posts: 6,425
And1: 3,462
Joined: Aug 25, 2009
 

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#27 » by ezzzp » Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:56 pm

Based on FiveThirtyEight's East Conference team record predictions the Magic will miss the playoffs:

01 Cleveland Cavaliers (prediction for Cavs has not been published yet but most likely #1)
02 Boston Celtics (48 - 34)
03 Chicago Bulls (47 - 35)
04 Atlanta Hawks (45 - 37)
05 Toronto Raptors (44 - 38)
06 Washington Wizards (41 - 41)

07 Charlotte Hornets (40 - 42)
08 Indiana Pacers (39 - 43)

09 Miami Heat (38 - 44)
10 Detroit Pistons (38 - 44)
11 Orlando Magic (37 - 45)
12 Milwaukee Bucks (36 - 46)

13 NY Knicks (27 - 55)
14 Brooklyn Nets (25 - 57)
15 Philadelphia 76’s (25 - 57)
AddiFB
Veteran
Posts: 2,993
And1: 2,714
Joined: Jul 31, 2009
Location: Iceland
 

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#28 » by AddiFB » Sun Oct 25, 2015 6:59 pm

ezzzp wrote:Based on FiveThirtyEight's East Conference team record predictions the Magic will miss the playoffs:

01 Cleveland Cavaliers (prediction for Cavs has not been published yet but most likely #1)
02 Boston Celtics (48 - 34)
03 Chicago Bulls (47 - 35)
04 Atlanta Hawks (45 - 37)
05 Toronto Raptors (44 - 38)
06 Washington Wizards (41 - 41)

07 Charlotte Hornets (40 - 42)
08 Indiana Pacers (39 - 43)

09 Miami Heat (38 - 44)
10 Detroit Pistons (38 - 44)
11 Orlando Magic (37 - 45)
12 Milwaukee Bucks (36 - 46)

13 NY Knicks (27 - 55)
14 Brooklyn Nets (25 - 57)
15 Philadelphia 76’s (25 - 57)


I do not see how the Hornets get into the Playoffs over Milwaukee, Miami or even the Pistons. Heck, lets throw Orlando in there too. I just don't. Maybe I'm blind.
- Orlando Magic fan since 1991 -
ezzzp
Head Coach
Posts: 6,425
And1: 3,462
Joined: Aug 25, 2009
 

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#29 » by ezzzp » Sun Oct 25, 2015 7:25 pm

AddiFB wrote:
ezzzp wrote:Based on FiveThirtyEight's East Conference team record predictions the Magic will miss the playoffs:

01 Cleveland Cavaliers (prediction for Cavs has not been published yet but most likely #1)
02 Boston Celtics (48 - 34)
03 Chicago Bulls (47 - 35)
04 Atlanta Hawks (45 - 37)
05 Toronto Raptors (44 - 38)
06 Washington Wizards (41 - 41)

07 Charlotte Hornets (40 - 42)
08 Indiana Pacers (39 - 43)

09 Miami Heat (38 - 44)
10 Detroit Pistons (38 - 44)
11 Orlando Magic (37 - 45)
12 Milwaukee Bucks (36 - 46)

13 NY Knicks (27 - 55)
14 Brooklyn Nets (25 - 57)
15 Philadelphia 76’s (25 - 57)


I do not see how the Hornets get into the Playoffs over Milwaukee, Miami or even the Pistons. Heck, lets throw Orlando in there too. I just don't. Maybe I'm blind.


Its just a mathematical model...doesn't account for good ole human surprise factor.

Personally I think spots 7-12 will be jumbled around.
User avatar
BadMofoPimp
RealGM
Posts: 49,001
And1: 12,483
Joined: Oct 12, 2003
Location: In the Paint

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#30 » by BadMofoPimp » Sun Oct 25, 2015 8:19 pm

I can see any one of the Bucks, Magic, Pistons fighting for those last two spots. They all improved. East is much better competitively than last season. Should make for a more entertaining season.
Image

Provin Ya'll Wrong!!!
Flannerz
Pro Prospect
Posts: 868
And1: 514
Joined: Nov 02, 2012
Location: London
   

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#31 » by Flannerz » Tue Oct 27, 2015 1:39 pm

Every time I see this thread title I think Carmelo Anthony has been talking about us.
Tayswagzzz
Analyst
Posts: 3,321
And1: 1,701
Joined: Dec 12, 2011
Location: Orlando
   

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#32 » by Tayswagzzz » Tue Oct 27, 2015 2:23 pm

drsd wrote:
~Snoopy~ wrote:Meh I thought Carmelo is forcing a trade to the Magic. :D


Frankly, today I see Tobias Harris as a better player than Carmelo Anthony.


..


A more efficient Carmelo Anthony type of player, one that can work in an offensive system. Harris defense has impressed me lately as well.
Orlando Magic | Atlanta Braves | Florida State
User avatar
Furinkazan
General Manager
Posts: 7,981
And1: 3,625
Joined: May 11, 2005
     

Re: Magic players assessed by CARMELO 

Post#33 » by Furinkazan » Tue Oct 27, 2015 6:13 pm

Tayswagzzz wrote:
drsd wrote:
~Snoopy~ wrote:Meh I thought Carmelo is forcing a trade to the Magic. :D


Frankly, today I see Tobias Harris as a better player than Carmelo Anthony.


..


A more efficient Carmelo Anthony type of player, one that can work in an offensive system. Harris defense has impressed me lately as well.



Maybe because Melo is getting old but he still has a superstar status anyway
comparing them at the same age I woudnt be so sure if Harris is better.
anyway
as Stannis said :D

Stannis Baratheon: We shall see, Renly. Come the dawn, we shall see.

Return to Orlando Magic