The Payton Situation

[Bensational]

Seems there's some meaty conversation on this, so we may as well keep it contained.

Full disclosure, Payton is one of my favourite players on this team and the player I find most exciting to watch, so it's no surprise I'm rooting for him. BUT, I do actually understand people having concerns about him fitting in with a new offensive system.

Let's think about this - if we're redesigning the offense to be more like the Spurs, Warriors or Hawks, could you see Payton fitting on any of those teams?

For Payton to play on those teams, he'd have to play the role of Parker, Curry or Teague, in that he'd be the ball dominant guard and the primary option for players attacking the rim off the dribble. The problem is, we already have Oladipo in that role, which leads to Payton playing off the ball more - and that's just not his game.

Could there be a switch in roles, which leads to Payton being our attacking guard, with Oladipo transitioning to an off ball shooter role? From accounts, it sounds like he's been playing more like that in preseason (I haven't seen the games, so apologies if I'm wrong). With Oladipo's efficiency from the outside looking much stronger this year, I think it does open that door.

But then comes the concerns people have about Payton's efficiency as an attacking, scoring guard. He doesn't finish at the rim with the highest %. He can get to the line plenty, but his FT% is woeful.

Looking at these numbers, Payton has a better FG% on drives compared to Dipo, so there's some merit to the idea.

The other factor that needs to be mentioned is passing. Unfortunately there are no longer any stats that cover this, the way this one used to, but I think it's safe to say that the old eye-test showed that Payton was a master at the drop-off and short passes once he got inside the paint, far moreso than any other player. Vuc and Dedmon were the primary beneficiaries of this, and their FG%'s are the best on our team.

So when you couple those two elements together, I think there's a pretty strong case to be made for how we should be using him, in comparison to other players who might be able to fulfil that role.

There are other things to take into account, such as his impact on the team when he's playing off the ball, but how frequently should that happen when he's on the floor? If he's consistently penetrating and either looking to score, doing a hand off, or dishing out to the perimeter, then he's likely still in a dangerous enough place that defenders will have to stick on him. If you sit him in the corner like JV did, then of course defenses will sag, but you'd have to be an idiot to want to run an offense like that again.



I'm looking forward to some quality conversation on this. Let's drop the name calling and labelling of 'haters' and 'homers' and just talk about the situation rationally.

[tooler]

Could there be a switch in roles, which leads to Payton being our attacking guard, with Oladipo transitioning to an off ball shooter role?

I have no idea about Payton. But good golly they ran Oladipo through a lot of screens tonight. It didn't work in the slightest, but I don't recall seeing these kinds of plays last year to this extent.

[Orlwillbeback]

Were not really doing anything different that i could see. Hes just trying to tell our players tactically what they could do better. Payton will excel as an off ball shooter this year as well as a defender and you guys are making way too much out of nothing.

[Bensational]

Could there be a switch in roles, which leads to Payton being our attacking guard, with Oladipo transitioning to an off ball shooter role?

I have no idea about Payton. But good golly they ran Oladipo through a lot of screens tonight. It didn't work in the slightest, but I don't recall seeing these kinds of plays last year to this extent.

that's cos they never really ran Oladipo off the ball. i think his most common plays were PnRs, ISOs and pull up jumpers. he was on the ball for 90% of his offensive opportunities.

(These are just off the cuff kind of numbers from memory, I could be off on some of them).

[Melvinlocker]

I'm taking a wait an see approach with Payton for the next two years to determine if we can build an offense around him or if we will have to bring him off of the bench ala Shaun Livingston, Nate McMillan, Dennis Schroeder, Norris Cole... etc. Regardless, I see him as an important part of the teams future whether he becomes a focal point in the offense or not.

[ezzzp]

BUT, I do actually understand people having concerns about him fitting in with a new offensive system.

Let's think about this - if we're redesigning the offense to be more like the Spurs, Warriors or Hawks, could you see Payton fitting on any of those teams?

For Payton to play on those teams, he'd have to play the role of Parker, Curry or Teague, in that he'd be the ball dominant guard and the primary option for players attacking the rim off the dribble. The problem is, we already have Oladipo in that role, which leads to Payton playing off the ball more - and that's just not his game.

Those offenses are all quite different with some very general principles that are similar but in a very broad sense + Parker, Curry and Teague all function much differently within their respective offenses and all have very different skills.

Regardless, Skiles has never once said he was imitating those systems. He has said: the pace would be faster; the ball and player movement would be increased; there would be less isolation plays; and that he would place an emphasis on offense generated by defense (fast breaks).

None of those principles hint at Elfrid being a liability.

In fact:

• his great PG skills will be key to initiating and organizing a quicker pace
• his defensive intensity and above average rebounding creates defense into offense opportunities
• his above average vision and passing skills will be key with the increased ball movement
• his ability to penetrate and break down defenses and vision will be lethal for (inside/out) initiated ball movement and great for finding cutters and catch-n-shoot ops with the increased player movement

Also, I'm not sure where you are getting that Oladipo is the Magic's attack guy. Oladipo and Payton have been sharing the ball handling / attacking the paint duties.

Payton has been the ball handler in 45% of Magic possessions (pickn-rolls) and Oladipo 41% of the time. Payton averages 9.4 drives into the paint per game resulting in 10.7 team ppg, Oladipo 9.2 drives resulting in 10.6 team ppg.

[MagicFan32]

There's a situation?

[fendilim]

First of, I like Payton and have high hopes for him.

But like I have said even during last season, THE reason why Payton was quite effective last year, was because his usage rate was pretty high. We'd basically run PnR's for him on almost every play. Its a different situation now with Skiles. He handles the ball less this year too.

To me, Payton neither regress nor improved his offense. Defensively he is still the same.

[Crabman]

His USG% was actually pretty low at 18.3%.

[Bensational]

BUT, I do actually understand people having concerns about him fitting in with a new offensive system.

Let's think about this - if we're redesigning the offense to be more like the Spurs, Warriors or Hawks, could you see Payton fitting on any of those teams?

For Payton to play on those teams, he'd have to play the role of Parker, Curry or Teague, in that he'd be the ball dominant guard and the primary option for players attacking the rim off the dribble. The problem is, we already have Oladipo in that role, which leads to Payton playing off the ball more - and that's just not his game.

Those offenses are all quite different with some very general principles that are similar but in a very broad sense + Parker, Curry and Teague all function much differently within their respective offenses and all have very different skills.

Regardless, Skiles has never once said he was imitating those systems. He has said: the pace would be faster; the ball and player movement would be increased; there would be less isolation plays; and that he would place an emphasis on offense generated by defense (fast breaks).

None of those principles hint at Elfrid being a liability.

In fact:

• his great PG skills will be key to initiating and organizing a quicker pace
• his defensive intensity and above average rebounding creates defense into offense opportunities
• his above average vision and passing skills will be key with the increased ball movement
• his ability to penetrate and break down defenses and vision will be lethal for (inside/out) initiated ball movement and great for finding cutters and catch-n-shoot ops with the increased player movement

Also, I'm not sure where you are getting that Oladipo is the Magic's attack guy. Oladipo and Payton have been sharing the ball handling / attacking the paint duties.

Payton has been the ball handler in 45% of Magic possessions (pickn-rolls) and Oladipo 41% of the time. Payton averages 9.4 drives into the paint per game resulting in 10.7 team ppg, Oladipo 9.2 drives resulting in 10.6 team ppg.

For some reason I thought I'd read a quote from Skiles, or possibly the front office, saying something about making our offense much more like the Hawks? I must be mistaken.

The difference between Payton and the PGs from those systems is that they're a triple threat at all times on the perimeter, and when they do get inside for a drive and dish opportunity, they remain a threat when they spread back out to an opposing corner or elbow 3 spot. Elf, on the other hand, lacks the 3pt threat, but is a constant threat to get into the paint at will, and to find passes for high % shots almost at will. But once the ball is out of his hands, sending him back out to the perimeter renders him pretty useless (for now, until he shows he has a confident jump shot).

If he drives and kicks it out, his man is basically free to chase the ball and collapse on a double team at some point (be it on the 1st, or 2nd pass). And if the ball makes it all the way back to Elf, he's still got time to recover and meet him in the mid range, or switch onto a big if the C or PF leave their man to stifle him.

As for Dipo being an attack guy, the simplest thing to point to that is the high level of ISOs Dipo had last year. ISOs are for attacking, whereas PnRs are for playmaking.

If I were defending Payton on a drive, I wouldn't overly worry about him shooting the ball, I'd be sticking my hands out trying to fill lanes (not that it would do much difference, since the guy is like Houdini with the ball!).

What I really want to see Payton bring to more of his drives is his floater. He hits that at something like 54%, and it's a thing of beauty.

[Skin]

The most common thing that is said about Payton is that he has to improve as a shooter... and while I think that's badly needed, I think Payton needs to step up his confidence, swag and become a bigger emotional leader for this team. Last year, he was just a rookie, but going into the future he will need to step up in that department in a big way. The team will follow his lead. If he just remains a quiet leader, then I think he will end up failing to meet the expectations we have for him. I want to see him become the next Gary Payton. Not the next Ricky Rubio.

[iTs JusT zo]

There's a situation?

This

[Last Guardian]

Probably overthinking the situation. I see no reason an athletic, tall PG that can handle and pass well can't function in an uptempo offense.

[Incognito76]

Would people trade Payton + 2016 first for Bledsoe if we start season OK and Suns start season bad and decide to do a trade?
I like Payton alot but Bledsoe is player we want Payton to become in couple of years.

[BadMofoPimp]

I don't put much into pre-season. This is a time for Experimentation to work on plays, schemes, see where fringe players are at etc. Payton will be fine once real games begin.

[MagicMadness]

Would people trade Payton + 2016 first for Bledsoe if we start season OK and Suns start season bad and decide to do a trade?
I like Payton alot but Bledsoe is player we want Payton to become in couple of years.

Starting the season 'OK' would be a big improvement for the Magic, though...

We're usually the 'bad' one.

[Bensational]

There's a situation?

This... is how us tools like to show we can't contribute to a conversation

This.

[Catledge]

Probably overthinking the situation. I see no reason an athletic, tall PG that can handle and pass well can't function in an uptempo offense.

Can you think of an NBA pg with fg% and ft% like Payton's?

[Just Plain Mark]

I wish last night's game weren't the only one televised so I could have a bigger sample size to judge, but the offense was brutal to watch. I acknowledge that Payton and Harris were out. I acknowledge that several players who have been scoring well had subpar nights (Oladipo and Fournier), but I couldn't tell what the offense was supposed to do.

There were several possessions where Dedmon ended up with the ball away from the basket and nobody else did anything. It also looked like ball handlers and screeners had confusion over whether there was supposed to be spacing for a play or whether there was supposed to be a PnR. I also thought other bigs besides Dedmon ended up with the ball in spaces they didn't look comfortable and didn't know what to do.

With respect to Payton - if the team is unsure of the offense in general then I'm wondering if Payton in particular is confused about his role. And a confused PG is going to struggle more on offense than any other player.

I hope that Payton and Harris are fully healthy for the remaining preseason games so we can figure out how much of this issue is based on the unusual preseason rotations and how much of this is fundamental to the team's offensive scheme.

[OrlandO]

Payton's going to start making those mid-rangers in games like he does in practice and it's going to be glorious.