Although you haven’t yet cast ballots in this thread, I’m transplanting this from last thread for discussion.
RebelWithACause wrote:
3. Baron 2007
Baron for the third ballot, though I could see Harden or Ginobili here as well.
Pretty much open here to be convinced of anyone, I am considering above.
If I find the time, I would like to compare those 3 a bit more in depth and also explain why Baron is almost up there with those 2 guys for me.
Quick dash why Baron is here for me:
Put all of his incredible talents together that year. Had everything you want from your PG, amazing playmaker and ballhandler, capable scorer from multiple areas on the court, great post game because he was such a big and strong point guard. So versatile.
Very good defender when he was into it.
The +/- numbers actually back up what I just said, since he has the 2nd best offensive RAPM of the databall era, while rating out as a good defender as well. Very impactful and that playoff run speaks for itself.
Hope I have the time to get more into this later.
I think you must have anticipated that this pick would draw some raised eyebrows, so please don’t take any of this personally. However, It is an odd pick imo, for a variety of reasons, which I’ll try to elaborate on in some semi-cohesive manner.
First off, I suppose I need to qualify it as a surprising pick…...
Well, I’d note perception of him at the time by the media (and thus most casual fans): Baron did not receive any All-NBA honors that year, and was only 15th in the MVP voting. So there were [at least] six guards and fourteen total players deemed to be better than him
that year, at least in the rs. Davis did tear it up in the playoffs that year, though.
However, to some degree this illustrates (to me) the potential folly in placing too much emphasis on the often small sample size we see within individual playoff runs. Not that I mean to take away from his playoff run, but I can’t help noting that the
entirety of his career outside of this one playoff run is suggestive that this is not at all a level of play he is capable of maintaining for any substantial length of time: he never once had a rs (not even within ‘07) that even remotely approaches this avg level of play, nor another playoff run anywhere in his career that matches (‘01 is the only year that is even
remotely close).
Further, even with consideration of this amazing playoff run, and viewed by more studious fans that are not heavily influenced by media, AND thru the lens of hindsight (always 20/20, right?)......we can note that in the RPoY project there was not a single person in the 22-member voter panel who even thought Baron Davis was one of the top 5 players that year.
To summarize: that’s one (I’ll snootily say “less informed”) group considering rs only felt there were 14 players better than him. And
not a single member of a 22-person panel of a generally more informed nature---and who were also considering the playoffs---felt there weren’t
at least 5 players better than Davis (6 players---at least---in total finishing ahead of him in RPoY shares)......again: this
in that single year.
So when you assert that there are only 25 or so players in the
61-year history of professional basketball which we are scrutinizing here who were ever better…….well, needless to say that’s sort of shocking.
wrt his skill-set, one thing I’d point out is that he’s really not a good shooter; like not at all for his position. In the year in question he’s tossing up 4.4 3PA/g while shooting just 30.4% on said attempts. He was <39% from 16-23 ft range; was <35% from 10-16 ft; <33% from 3-10 ft. And he was <75% from the FT-line, too (which is sub-par for his position).
Not to say that PG’s cannot exert offensive impact which goes well beyond his shooting efficiency (and he seems to be one of those individuals); but I just wanted it noted that he is, in fact, not all that good a scorer.
wrt his offensive impact…...
Right off the bat, I’m going to pick one nit with one above statement:
2nd best offensive RAPM of the databall era
Not sure if this was a typo or what. But from the data I’m looking at, this is a flatly untrue statement. He was the 2nd-best PI ORAPM
that year, and it is indeed a very elite level ORAPM.
But based on Doc’s spreadsheet of scaled numbers, it is the 5th-best scaled PI ORAPM seen in the 14-year window (‘98-’12, minus ‘01), and there are THREE individuals who have posted at least one year better: Nash, Wade, Lebron.
In non-scaled terms, to go out as far as ‘15, and including NPI numbers from ‘97 and ‘01, it is only the 44th-best ORAPM on record, with 15 different individuals who have posted
at least one year better (or EIGHT years better, in case of Steve Nash). I think it’s safe to assume that if Doc extended his scaled data out to include ‘13-’15, that Baron’s scaled ORAPM would fall at least a few places further than 5th. And again, “the record” only goes back 19 years (whereas we’re considering as far back as 61 years in this project).
In terms of overall impact as measured by combined RAPM…..
By Doc’s scaled PI RAPM (14 years: ‘98-’12, minus ‘01): there are 32 individuals with
at least one season with better scaled RAPM. Safe to assume there’d be more than 32 individuals if Doc extended his data to include ‘13-’15.
By non-scaled RAPM (PI where available, NPI for ‘97 and ‘01, and using colts18’s NPI rs-only data for ‘94-’96): there are again 32 individuals on record with a better RAPM than ‘07 Baron (and again, even this record of data only goes back 22 years).
So even utilizing primarily this metric, which is by far the most flattering to him, he still appears somewhat less than a shoe-in candidate.
And other metrics are far less flattering….
For instance, his rs PER in ‘07 is only 28th in the league THAT YEAR, and is not close to the top 250 in NBA history; there are more than 62 individuals (I don’t quite know how many more, as that’s where the top 250 all-time PER’s ends) from the shot-clock era with at least one season with better PER.
He’s only 28th in the league THAT YEAR in rs BPM, and is behind literally several dozen (or maybe hundreds?) of people in an all-time sense. For playoff BPM (BPM data only goes back as far as ‘74, remember), his crazy run is still behind 21 individuals (a few who are still on the table in this project).
He’s only 59th in the league THAT YEAR in rs WS/48, with literally hundreds of individuals from the shot-clock era who’ve achieved a better rs WS/48.
Even looking at his amazing playoff run: there are 44 individuals from the shot-clock era who have had at least one playoff run with better WS/48.
I'll stop there.
Obviously you’re entitled to your opinion. But just sayin’.....I look at all of the above and can’t help feeling that the overwhelming wealth of evidence suggests Baron doesn’t belong in the discussion yet.
"The fact that a proposition is absurd has never hindered those who wish to believe it." -Edward Rutherfurd
"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
