Otto Porter Part 2

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Imo Noel doesn't have a true position in the classic sense, but he's one of those guys who is such a great athlete that he can find a way to be effective. He can't shoot or anything, but he's very quick with the ball and could make a living for 10-12ppg just beating opposing PFs off the dribble and even drawing some fouls. But he's still a ways off from fully overcoming his weaknesses, he's not a 'matchup proof' player yet.

But I made a similar point a while ago, Porter has a ready-made, ideal skillset for the modern NBA. A long 6'9 defensive wing with an all-around skillset, high IQ offball game and a quick trigger on the 3pt shot. A player like that, you can seamlessly put him next to other dynamic players and you'll be running teams out of the gym. A team like GSW would take Otto before they would take Noel.

Noel has ended up being better than I expected. I think that's mainly a result of the 76ers finally starting to settle on a build. I was pessimistic about his future in Philly, especially after Embiid was picked. They just didn't seem to fit together at all, but that situation has pretty much sorted itself out. I like Noel's fit at PF next to Okafor at C, provided Okafor's surprisingly good jumper is for real.

But also, he's made big strides at the FT line and improved his finishing touch around the basket. Combine that with his first step and you have the foundation for a passable offensive game.

He's an extremely impactful defender too. He covers multiple positions and has the hands and feet of a wing. The rare player that can cover tons of space as well as protect the rim.

But even still, I wouldn't trade Porter for him. On draft day I said that Porter was the best two-way player in his class, optimistic at the time, but I think it might actually end up being true. And I don't think the people who loved Noel and didn't like the Porter pick appreciated the extra value over Noel that Porter's advanced offensive game gave him until they saw it first hand in last year's playoffs. Then Otto's value just kind of clicked for everyone, and I think it's at the point where he's not a controversial pick any more.

When Otto wasn't playing last season, I was feeling down on him and felt that Len, Giannis, and Gobert would have been better picks in hindsight. But since Otto has proven himself to us, I've changed my mind again. I definitely wouldn't trade Otto for Len or Giannis any more. I'm kind of waffling on whether or not I'd do it for Gobert.

Like you said, 6'9 wings that can play defense and have advanced offensive skills are worth their weight in gold. Maybe worth even more than a 7'2 center that's a dominating rebounder and rim protector, but has no offensive game.

I would trade Otto for Gobert so fast, lol. Gobert is on another tier from Porter or Noel, I would take him over Andre Drummond as well (and basically every other young C prospect).

But agreed, Otto's shooting and offball game fits our team so well that I wouldn't trade him for a 'flashier' athlete like Giannis, who is still far away in the skills dept.

Gobert is better than Porter but I like Porter a lot on this Wizards team with Gortat

[dobrojim]

first I think OP is a better athlete than many are saying although I do concede that he doesn't
seem to have the explosiveness of some NBA-uberathletes. That said, he has such a great
intuitive feel for the game that he still manages to be in the right spot at the right time.
And lets not forget his defensive prowess. DeRozen was ripping us a new one at the start
of games in last years playoffs but as soon as OP defended him, not so much.

As I said before, I think he's ready to challenge BB for the best 22 yo on the team.

[Higga]

first I think OP is a better athlete than many are saying although I do concede that he doesn't
seem to have the explosiveness of some NBA-uberathletes. That said, he has such a great
intuitive feel for the game that he still manages to be in the right spot at the right time.
And lets not forget his defensive prowess. DeRozen was ripping us a new one at the start
of games in last years playoffs but as soon as OP defended him, not so much.

As I said before, I think he's ready to challenge BB for the best 22 yo on the team.

Porter is just...solid. He's as basketball player, even if he may not be the best athlete in the world. I think he can be a Caron Butler type of player(not play style wise, just in terms of impact and where he stands in the league tier wise). He's gonna be a nice #3 option for us. Believe in Otto-Matic.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Porter is already a better wing defender than Butler or Jamison. He's also a better rebounder than Butler was.

His offensive game reminds me of Rip Hamilton. His movement gets him clean looks.

[Ruzious]

Prince is the best comp I've seen for him - though Prince was slightly longer and Otto seems he'll likely be slightly more prolific as a 3 point shooter. People are going to say Otto has more potential. To them, I'll say in advance that Prince was a very underrated player throughout his career, and it's unlikely that Otto will be better than Prince in his prime - imo.

[fishercob]

Prince is the best comp I've seen for him - though Prince was slightly longer and Otto seems he'll likely be slightly more prolific as a 3 point shooter. People are going to say Otto has more potential. To them, I'll say in advance that Prince was a very underrated player throughout his career, and it's unlikely that Otto will be better than Prince in his prime - imo.

I'd say Otto has more potential because Tay only had 5 seasons of above average WS/48 production. I think Otto will have more, if for no other reason than Prince came in to the league two years younger than Prince did.

I also think Otto's production will benefit from the era he's playing in.

I remember seeing this play live -- when Prince announced himself to the NBA world -- and not being able to believe what I was seeing.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QJ4iwqnLKc[/youtube]

[Ruzious]

Prince is the best comp I've seen for him - though Prince was slightly longer and Otto seems he'll likely be slightly more prolific as a 3 point shooter. People are going to say Otto has more potential. To them, I'll say in advance that Prince was a very underrated player throughout his career, and it's unlikely that Otto will be better than Prince in his prime - imo.

I'd say Otto has more potential because Tay only had 5 seasons of above average WS/48 production. I think Otto will have more, if for no other reason than Prince came in to the league two years younger than Prince did.

I also think Otto's production will benefit from the era he's playing in.

I remember seeing this play live -- when Prince announced himself to the NBA world -- and not being able to believe what I was seeing.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QJ4iwqnLKc[/youtube]

Wouldn't that tell you that you shouldn't evaluate a player just by WS/48 production?

[fishercob]

Prince is the best comp I've seen for him - though Prince was slightly longer and Otto seems he'll likely be slightly more prolific as a 3 point shooter. People are going to say Otto has more potential. To them, I'll say in advance that Prince was a very underrated player throughout his career, and it's unlikely that Otto will be better than Prince in his prime - imo.

I'd say Otto has more potential because Tay only had 5 seasons of above average WS/48 production. I think Otto will have more, if for no other reason than Prince came in to the league two years younger than Prince did.

I also think Otto's production will benefit from the era he's playing in.

I remember seeing this play live -- when Prince announced himself to the NBA world -- and not being able to believe what I was seeing.

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QJ4iwqnLKc[/youtube]

Wouldn't that tell you that you shouldn't evaluate a player just by WS/48 production?

I'm not evaluating players solely on that criteria. But I do think Otto will be more productive in terms of WS/48. While certainly not apples to apples, i think their draft position (3rd v. 23rd) also speaks somewhat to their perceived potential/upside in league circles.

[Illmatic12]

Tayshaun Prince wasn't as great as some are remembering him. Outside of a few good seasons he was overrated as a defender, and overall the lowest impact player in that Detroit starting five. Those other four guys were legitimate All-Stars, Prince was always a cut below.

The way he's going, I think Otto could develop a legitimate All-Star caliber game as he matures (not a starter, but the caliber of guys like Luol Deng, Caron Butler etc who would get in as reserves). You can see he has a lot of unlocked offensive ability, but he can't impose his will like he wants because of his frame and lack of strength.

Porter knows how to attack defenders on the move and get them off balance, and he's displayed (surprisingly) great touch on a variety of midrange shots and floaters. Just a matter of him gaining weight imo - which he has plenty of time to do, only 22yo. But it's going to be yeeears before he reaches his physical peak, not any time soon.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I think the Wizards would be okay with Porter having a Prince-esque career, although he might be deemed a bit of a disappointment if that's "all" he did. Prince didn't rate as an elite player in my metric (PPA), but I had him with 8 seasons of average or better production. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. His best season was a 138 in 06-07, and he had a couple other seasons over 130. Guys like Khris Middleton, Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay rated in about that range last season.

Porter last year rated a 74 in the regular season (Prince rated a 66 in his rookie year), and a 125 in the playoffs.

[fishercob]

I think the Wizards would be okay with Porter having a Prince-esque career, although he might be deemed a bit of a disappointment if that's "all" he did. Prince didn't rate as an elite player in my metric (PPA), but I had him with 8 seasons of average or better production. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. His best season was a 138 in 06-07, and he had a couple other seasons over 130. Guys like Khris Middleton, Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay rated in about that range last season.

Porter last year rated a 74 in the regular season (Prince rated a 66 in his rookie year), and a 125 in the playoffs.

How much better does PPA say his 06-07 was than his 04-05?

[TheSecretWeapon]

I think the Wizards would be okay with Porter having a Prince-esque career, although he might be deemed a bit of a disappointment if that's "all" he did. Prince didn't rate as an elite player in my metric (PPA), but I had him with 8 seasons of average or better production. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. His best season was a 138 in 06-07, and he had a couple other seasons over 130. Guys like Khris Middleton, Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay rated in about that range last season.

Porter last year rated a 74 in the regular season (Prince rated a 66 in his rookie year), and a 125 in the playoffs.

How much better does PPA say his 06-07 was than his 04-05?

Here's Prince's career, according to PPA:

02-03 -- 66
03-04 -- 119
04-05 -- 136
06-07 -- 127
07-08 -- 138
08-09 -- 132
09-10 -- 117
10-11 -- 123
11-12 -- 104
12-13 -- 84
13-14 -- 60
14-15 -- 81

So, 04-05 and 06-07 about the same in quality.

[fishercob]

I think the Wizards would be okay with Porter having a Prince-esque career, although he might be deemed a bit of a disappointment if that's "all" he did. Prince didn't rate as an elite player in my metric (PPA), but I had him with 8 seasons of average or better production. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. His best season was a 138 in 06-07, and he had a couple other seasons over 130. Guys like Khris Middleton, Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay rated in about that range last season.

Porter last year rated a 74 in the regular season (Prince rated a 66 in his rookie year), and a 125 in the playoffs.

How much better does PPA say his 06-07 was than his 04-05?

Here's Prince's career, according to PPA:

02-03 -- 66
03-04 -- 119
04-05 -- 136
06-07 -- 127
07-08 -- 138
08-09 -- 132
09-10 -- 117
10-11 -- 123
11-12 -- 104
12-13 -- 84
13-14 -- 60
14-15 -- 81

So, 04-05 and 06-07 about the same in quality.

You left out 05-06.

[TheSecretWeapon]

How much better does PPA say his 06-07 was than his 04-05?

Here's Prince's career, according to PPA:

02-03 -- 66
03-04 -- 119
04-05 -- 136
06-07 -- 127
07-08 -- 138
08-09 -- 132
09-10 -- 117
10-11 -- 123
11-12 -- 104
12-13 -- 84
13-14 -- 60
14-15 -- 81

So, 04-05 and 06-07 about the same in quality.

You left out 05-06.

Lemme try that again...

02-03 -- 66
03-04 -- 119
04-05 -- 136
05-06 -- 127
06-07 -- 138
07-08 -- 132
08-09 -- 117
09-10 -- 123
10-11 -- 104
11-12 -- 81
12-13 -- 84
13-14 -- 60
14-15 -- 81

[Kanyewest]

I think the perception is that Prince became worse in 2007 because LeBron went off against him and the Pistons in 2007. In reality, it had to do more with the departure of Ben Wallace, the lack of depth compared to his previous team, and that Flip Saunders wasn't as good of a head coach as Larry Brown.

[Higga]

I like Prince as a player. Wouldn't really mind if that's what Porter ended up being, but I don't really think they're the same type of player.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think the Wizards would be okay with Porter having a Prince-esque career, although he might be deemed a bit of a disappointment if that's "all" he did. Prince didn't rate as an elite player in my metric (PPA), but I had him with 8 seasons of average or better production. In PPA, 100 is average and higher is better. His best season was a 138 in 06-07, and he had a couple other seasons over 130. Guys like Khris Middleton, Harrison Barnes and Rudy Gay rated in about that range last season.

Porter last year rated a 74 in the regular season (Prince rated a 66 in his rookie year), and a 125 in the playoffs.

How much better does PPA say his 06-07 was than his 04-05?

Here's Prince's career, according to PPA:

02-03 -- 66
03-04 -- 119
04-05 -- 136
06-07 -- 127
07-08 -- 138
08-09 -- 132
09-10 -- 117
10-11 -- 123
11-12 -- 104
12-13 -- 84
13-14 -- 60
14-15 -- 81

So, 04-05 and 06-07 about the same in quality.

Otto is going to be an even better player than Tayshaun Prince.

[stevemcqueen1]

Otto's offensive game is more like Rip Hamilton's than Tayshaun Prince's. He's a natural and has a ton of skills.

[fishercob]

Lemme try that again...

02-03 -- 66, 84
03-04 -- 119, 134
04-05 -- 136, 149
05-06 -- 127, 115
06-07 -- 138, 128
07-08 -- 132, 133
08-09 -- 117, 98
09-10 -- 123, 91
10-11 -- 104, 62
11-12 -- 81, 48
12-13 -- 84, 65
13-14 -- 60, 38
14-15 -- 81, 73

So, just an interesting statistical exercise/observation given Ruz's skepticism off WS/48: I am putting Prince's WS/48 numbers in bold indexed to 100 next to your PPA measure, just to see how they stack up.

If you average the discrepancy between WS/48 and PPA over the first 7 season of Prince's career, there virtually is none -- which may be a coincidence, but it's quite interesting.

Then from 09-10 until last year, the average discrepancy was huge, like 38%. Kevin, any idea as to what's behind these phenomena?

[payitforward]

Lemme try that again...

02-03 -- 66, 84
03-04 -- 119, 134
04-05 -- 136, 149
05-06 -- 127, 115
06-07 -- 138, 128
07-08 -- 132, 133
08-09 -- 117, 98
09-10 -- 123, 91
10-11 -- 104, 62
11-12 -- 81, 48
12-13 -- 84, 65
13-14 -- 60, 38
14-15 -- 81, 73

So, just an interesting statistical exercise/observation given Ruz's skepticism off WS/48: I am putting Prince's WS/48 numbers in bold indexed to 100 next to your PPA measure, just to see how they stack up.

If you average the discrepancy between WS/48 and PPA over the first 7 season of Prince's career, there virtually is none -- which may be a coincidence, but it's quite interesting.

Then from 09-10 until last year, the average discrepancy was huge, like 38%. Kevin, any idea as to what's behind these phenomena?

I don't think averaging the discrepancies over multiple years is a valid step methodologically. The shape of the curve is pretty different, and the biggest discrepancies are in the prime of his career.

WS/48 has his year 2 as the second best year of his career. PPA has it as the 6th best (i.e. right in the middle). WS/48 has his year 5 as the peak of his productivity. WS/48 has it 4th best. And a number of year-pairs that PPA says are very close, WS/48 ranks as very different. Viz. 03-04 and 08-09, and 02-03 and 13-14.

At least one of the two metrics is bizarrely off, and if WS/48 refers to "Win Shares", my money is on that one.