Fried Chicken and Bonghits: The Al Jefferson Thread 2.0

[Mystical Apples]

If he's averaging only like 10 shots per game in that situation, you have to start asking if having that feature of our offense is worth the defensive and offensive scheming required to use him.... Just not sure if it's that much better than just having better PNR players and ball movers at the C position instead.

That's very much an open question for this team.

That's essentially it. Personally, I don't think Al has ever meant much to his team's success in the past, let alone a 31 year old center who sucks at what he needs to do. Analytics have altered the way offenses play, but also more importantly revealed the wrong things were valued in the past like post scoring while ignoring everything else. It's just there weren't enough smart franchises 10-15 years ago to exploit that ignorance to make it obvious.

Not trying to be harsh on Al but so many accommodations are made to get a less desirable result.

[Mystical Apples]

This would be alarming if it was the regular season. The other centers and PF are doing everything asked including hedging and recovering and closing perimeter shooters, yet still have better defensive rebounding and defensive rating numbers. The rookie who "needs to get stronger" has been more impressive.

http://stats.nba.com/league/player/#!/advanced/?Season=2015-16&SeasonType=Pre%20Season&TeamID=1610612766&CF=GP*GE*3%7CMIN*GE*15&sort=DREB_PCT&dir=1

[yosemiteben]

Personally, I don't think Al has ever meant much to his team's success in the past, let alone a 31 year old center who sucks at what he needs to do.

I can understand the critique, but that obviously ignores his ridiculous 2013-14 campaign.

I can appreciate what you're saying, but I also can understand the counter view that teams are fielding bigs that don't know how to deal with low post threats because they never see them. Teams know they have to figure out how to defend PNR actions and limit and provide help side support on drives to the paint, but rarely do teams have to deal with real iso post threats and that could be a valuable counter to the way that teams are adapting to defend these new offensive schemes.

I honestly think Al would single handedly destroy our second unit, with the way we do our best not to double.

[yosemiteben]

This would be alarming if it was the regular season. The other centers and PF are doing everything asked including hedging and recovering and closing perimeter shooters, yet still have better defensive rebounding and defensive rating numbers.

But individual stats are pretty meaningless in preseason. Some of those numbers by those bench guys are against end of the bench / slotted to be cut training camp extras, so you can't really compare like that.

[spaceballer]

Personally, I don't think Al has ever meant much to his team's success in the past, let alone a 31 year old center who sucks at what he needs to do.

I can understand the critique, but that obviously ignores his ridiculous 2013-14 campaign.

I can appreciate what you're saying, but I also can understand the counter view that teams are fielding bigs that don't know how to deal with low post threats because they never see them. Teams know they have to figure out how to defend PNR actions and limit and provide help side support on drives to the paint, but rarely do teams have to deal with real iso post threats and that could be a valuable counter to the way that teams are adapting to defend these new offensive schemes.

I honestly think Al would single handedly destroy our second unit, with the way we do our best not to double.

Agreed, Al needs to stay with the starters, even if you want to minimize his minutes and not use him at end of games, because he would destroy the bench. Bench players are usually less iso-skilled than starters, and thus are even more dependent on teamball and ball movement to get their shots.

[Mystical Apples]

Personally, I don't think Al has ever meant much to his team's success in the past, let alone a 31 year old center who sucks at what he needs to do.

I can understand the critique, but that obviously ignores his ridiculous 2013-14 campaign.

I can appreciate what you're saying, but I also can understand the counter view that teams are fielding bigs that don't know how to deal with low post threats because they never see them. Teams know they have to figure out how to defend PNR actions and limit and provide help side support on drives to the paint, but rarely do teams have to deal with real iso post threats and that could be a valuable counter to the way that teams are adapting to defend these new offensive schemes.

I honestly think Al would single handedly destroy our second unit, with the way we do our best not to double.

I don't agree with that, or at least mostly. Post play can be defended as a team in a number of ways that doesn't require a great individual defender. Memphis, which has incredible post play but is always swimming up stream with poor three point shooting volume, had Tony Allen with easily the best On/Off rating, just like MKG.

Al can be efficient in the post but he's a Braess Paradox - what's good for Al isn't good for the team. With Charlotte Hawes and Kaminsky could get help if needed, but it's a less efficient scheme anyways since Al isn't a good enough or willing enough passer to punish help. With all of his touches and shots he has a 6% assist rate which is comically awful and by far the worst on the team this preseason. A smart coach would run Al off every possible screen chasing Kaminsky and Hawes from 25 feet. There's nothing that could save him other than sitting him.

I'd agree with the premise of the "new Al" if:

he wasn't turning 31
he didn't suck on defense when he wasn't turning 31
he had the ability to make the right pass to punish help.
there weren't better options
He rebounded better than Hawes or Kaminsky

[Mystical Apples]

Since Al's peak began 8 years ago in his first year with Minnesota this is what his teams have done: a 255-385 record. A max season win total of 43. A grand total of 0 playoff wins. Amazingly, on average those awful teams were 1.2 points better with Al off the court.

So count me as skeptical that past his prime Al doing stuff he isn't good at or even inclined to do is going to yield positive results.

[yosemiteben]

I'd agree with the premise of the "new Al" if:

he wasn't turning 31
he didn't suck on defense when he wasn't turning 31
he had the ability to make the right pass to punish help.
there weren't better options
He rebounded better than Hawes or Kaminsky

Curious to see support for the argument that Al isn't a better defensive rebounder that relies on regular season stats. Hawes has never had a season where he finished with a higher DRB% than Al, and the statement that Kaminsky is already a better defensive rebounder is a bit ridiculous.

We've seen all these arguments about Al before. We've never seen him in an offensive system like this. We have seen him in a defensive system like this, and raw +/- stats suggest that the extent that he is a defensive liability is overstated.

My observation is that there is no one better suited to punish iso post defenders than Al. Our emphasis on better spacing and more perimeter shooting dovetails nicely with Al's unique ability to punish one on one defenders in the paint. How many stretch C's are there in the league that Al could potentially be guarding any way? Bosh (when Whiteside is out), Pau...Lopez maybe? Vuc? I mean there is not a lot of bigs that Al would need to chase on the perimeter, so I don't agree that him being slow to close out on his man is a big issue.

[Mystical Apples]

Al is turning 31 and his rebounding numbers were in part from an aversion to leaving the paint. We'll see how good he is on the downside of the age curve and being asked to do nimble things 18 feet from the basket without cheating screens all game. So far, not so good.

He looked out of place against the Bulls but the good news is he'll have a crack at Drummond tonight, one of the few matchups he has to distinguish himself and requires less mobility.

[Mystical Apples]

The last 4 games Al leads the rotation players in usage at 28.4% but is last in assist%. That's Al and always has been. But Dreb% is the one to watch and over the same period he's at 14% which is 9th on the team, last among bigs and behind 3 guards. He's always in the paint and not playing with a strong defensive rebounding power forward so it should be much higher and unfortunately, reflects his age and declining athleticism.

If we're 10 games into the regular season and he's not cracking 20% he won't play anymore. He'll be traded or negotiate a buyout.

[KM6]

The interior defense and defensive rebound had been a major problem over the past few games. Whatever happens, Cliff needs to figure out how to resolve this.

[yosemiteben]

The interior defense and defensive rebound had been a major problem over the past few games. Whatever happens, Cliff needs to figure out how to resolve this.

We have the best DRB% in the league over the course of the preseason - 83.3%, better than our by far league leading rate of 79.3% last season. I'm not convinced it's a problem.

Detroit has averaged 10.7 offensive boards per game over preseason and got 9 last night.
Chicago has averaged 15.4 offensive boards and got 7 when we played them.

[fatlever]

I'll crap on Al for a lot of stuff this year, but rebounding is a team thing and if we are still controlling the defensive glass as a team, even with Al's numbers suffering, I am OK with it.

[KM6]

You guys are right, I checked last night's box score, our team is still ahead on defensive rebounds, it's just Al didn't do well in the category.

[steady]

I think I read somewhere that Pistons beat us in points in paint by margin of 52-20

Which is interesting because we beat Clippers in that category by 42 to 20 or something like that in one game

In fact, interestingly, Pistons beat Hornets in almost every single category last night except FTs (we were 30-32) and 3 ptrs (we were 9-25)

[Braggins]

If we're 10 games into the regular season and he's not cracking 20% he won't play anymore. He'll be traded or negotiate a buyout.

There is a 0% chance of Clifford not playing Al and very little chance that he would bring him off the bench. You newcomers dont understand how clueless Clifford is and how thoroughly convinced he is that Al is our best player. Al played absolutely pathetic all season last year and never had his minutes threatened at all, even when he was injured. Even after he went down and we all saw our season start to turn around with Biz as the starter it didnt matter. As soon as Al was remotely healthy he was back in there sucking up all the center minutes and being complete garbage. At this point it seems that the only way Al would end up not playing is if Clifford got canned mid-season. We could be 0-10 after 10 games and literally be 10 points/100 possessions worse with Al on the court and Clifford still wouldnt bench him. Hed just remind us all in post game press conferences how many straight seasons Al has averaged 19 and 9.

[DY_nasty]

I think I read somewhere that Pistons beat us in points in paint by margin of 52-20

Which is interesting because we beat Clippers in that category by 42 to 20 or something like that in one game

In fact, interestingly, Pistons beat Hornets in almost every single category last night except FTs (we were 30-32) and 3 ptrs (we were 9-25)

its preseason

teams experiment constantly

you can't take stats like those and apply them to normal stuff because you're assuming entirely too much from each team

[yosemiteben]

Al is turning 31 and his rebounding numbers were in part from an aversion to leaving the paint. We'll see how good he is on the downside of the age curve...

I feel like you are hugely exaggerating the difference between being in your prime at 29 and "being on the downside of the age curve" at 30.

I understand your point that he is being asked to do more, but based on the way you describe him you would think he was hobbling around like he did last season. He looks great physically out there, and early results say we still have a dominant defensive rebounding team.

[yosemiteben]

You newcomers dont understand how clueless Clifford is...

Early results suggest that maybe he's not so clueless.

[Braggins]

You newcomers dont understand how clueless Clifford is...

Early results suggest that maybe he's not so clueless.

Eh, we'll see what happens when the games matter and teams are targeting Al's defense constantly when hes on the floor. As per usual, I hope youre right.

Clifford has shown some good things so far tgis year, but i still feel like he is going to remain delusional when it comes to Al.